Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[cupid_stunt]

Also, what was hidden first time around is now visible this time. There is a similar pattern across Europe of rising infection levels starting off with younger people (by which I mean really anybody under 60) and not showing up in hospital numbers for quite a while as it slowly then makes its way to older people. I don't see any reason to think it wasn't the same pattern in the first wave, probably throughout February. We just didn't know because of the lack of testing.

Forget the early days, just look at how the infection rates have shot up amongst younger people since the start of July, when we had already hit around 140k tests a day.



And, as pointed out this isn't just showing up in the UK, even Germany, which from the start were testing way more than any other European country, has highlighted this growing problem in recent weeks.

There is particular concern in Berlin, where the incidence of the virus among 20- to 24-year-olds is as high as 43 in every 100,000 (the Berlin average is 13.7). The popular district of Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg is under particular focus.

“It’s parties which are to blame for this,” Berlin’s health minister, Dilek Kalayci, said on Monday, warning that if the figures did not drop, authorities would be forced to introduce tougher measures. Police have already been habitually breaking up large gatherings in parks and riversides across the city or raiding illegal parties.

And, Italy, Ireland, France & Spain are all quoted as highlighting the problem in this article.

'Not a game': Europe pleads with young people to halt Covid-19 spread

Health authorities across continent try to reach under 30s as cases among younger people rise

www.theguardian.com

 

[elbows]

Or saving it. If travel is still fucked next summer, allowing limited travel this summer won't look too clever.

Can't say for sure cos SAGE is secret, but the actions re summer holidays fit with a belief* that Covid-19 would show marked seasonal variability in its transmission. I read warnings right at the start that it might not, because MERS doesn't and it could be like MERS.

*or should that be 'hope'?

I dont know what the excuse would be for them not understanding this properly either.

After all, how many times have I dug out the graph of 2009 swine flu waves, showing the first big wave in July 2009? And that was influenza, a virus and respiratory disease that they allegedly know lots about, and where the seasonal factors have been demonstrated over a long period.

The seasons influence human behaviour and some other factors which are probably involved in ease of spread and severity of illness. When a disease is not new to a human population, these seasonal variations are enough to tip the balance between diminished cases and a large rise in cases (with epidemics some years, depending on how population immunity has waned or increased in the prior period). But when a disease is new to the population and there is a lack of protective degree of prior immunity in the community, the seasonal variations may not be anywhere enough to tip the balance towards dwindling numbers in summer.

This also means that although the wiggle room provided by summer was not enough to keep infection numbers down to background levels this summer, the virus may not need to change at all in order for the story to be different in future years, once the immunity picture is different.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I dont know what the excuse would be for them not understanding this properly either.

After all, how many times have I dug out the graph of 2009 swine flu waves, showing the first big wave in July 2009? And that was influenza, a virus and respiratory disease that they allegedly know lots about, and where the seasonal factors have been demonstrated over a long period.

The seasons influence human behaviour and some other factors which are probably involved in ease of spread and severity of illness. When a disease is not new to a human population, these seasonal variations are enough to tip the balance between diminished cases and a large rise in cases (with epidemics some years, depending on how population immunity has waned or increased in the prior period). But when a disease is new to the population and there is a lack of protective degree of prior immunity in the community, the seasonal variations may not be anywhere enough to tip the balance towards dwindling numbers in summer.

This also means that although the wiggle room provided by summer was not enough to keep infection numbers down to background levels this summer, the virus may not need to change at all in order for the story to be different in future years, once the immunity picture is different.

Yep, you have indeed been talking about this for months, so you have to assume that someone in SAGE has been as well. The choice was made to ignore such warnings. A plain illustration of the ongoing scandal that is the lack of full transparency of SAGE.

Not just Britain of course. Spain clearly tried to salvage its tourist season by ignoring such concerns and crossing fingers.

 

[elbows]

Yep, you have indeed been talking about this for months, so you have to assume that someone in SAGE has been as well. The choice was made to ignore such warnings. A plain illustration of the ongoing scandal that is the lack of full transparency of SAGE.

Its also not just a question of how transparent they are, but also the timing, how quickly we get to see what they were saying.

I believe in radical forms of openness in discussions and decision making. But I dont think that is terribly compatible with the way things are actually ordered more broadly under the current setup, with the press we have, with the form of economy and 'democracy' we have, etc. And so when I consider my beliefs, I end up with all these other aspects needing to be arranged very differently in order for the whole thing to actually work properly. Because under the current system, the people involved will end up with the same old 'in order to deliver frank and unvarnished facts and opinions to the government, we must do so in a candid way, and thats something we have been taught not to do in the full glare of the public eye.' Because honesty changes the equation and leads to awkward political moments, robbing the establishment of some of the tricks of poor governance that they rely on.

 

[elbows]

Also, despite the current SAGE transparency being in no way up to scratch, its still being done in to an extent that I expect makes the establishment nervous.

By this I mean that even with their several months lag between documents being produced for SAGE meeting use and them being made available to the public, and despite the bland, depersonalised nature of the SAGE minutes (they are far less than full minute), there is still loads of stuff going into the public domain that is fairly frank and does not resemble the sort of language we normally get from template establishment documents designed for public consumption.

It is certainly tempting to start an entire thread for SAGE, NERVTAG etc quotes to live in, because I normally dont have to try hard before I find a very quotable document that swamps me in potential quotes and I have to restrain myself.

For example here is one of the more recently released documents, from SPI-B (behavioural science) on 22nd July. Public heath messaging for communities from different cultural backgrounds, and just a few example quotes.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/914924/s0649-public-health-messaging-bame-communities.pdf

BAME communities may be less willing to trust government communications on pandemic measures due to historical issues and contemporary perceptions of institutional racism. Health messages are more likely to be received by someone known and trusted within BAME communities. These include faith groups, community leaders and lay health educators such as shop workers and taxi drivers.

• Multiple credible sources should be utilised as not all members of BAME communities are responsive to faith leaders.
• Understand and define differences within and between minority groups. Identify credible sources and ensure health messages reflect salient aspects of ethnic identity and experiences.

Local authorities should have an active BAME engagement cell with health, political, community, legal and academic representatives.
This will help understand issues at a local level and build trust with community partners that can act as a trusted source for hard to reach populations.

• Inclusion of social identities relevant to the target community will minimise the perception of health promotion behaviour as a White, middle class characteristic and minimise fatalistic attitudes that question the relevance and efficacy of health promotion behaviours.
  • Link health messages with social identities other than White and middle class to increase impact on BAME groups.
  • Include evidence which highlights risks to specific groups. This will create the perception that the health problem can affect individuals in this group and may increase willingness to take action.
  • Include stories from within the local community which provide real-world examples of the consequences of following and not following health guidelines.

• If a health message induces fear, it may result in denial or avoidance as a coping mechanism due to low control over external factors, such as working in frontline roles, which could result in developing fatalistic attitudes.

• Fear inducing messages should be avoided as, even when health messages are adhered to, stressors remain in the physical environment that are not within the control of individuals from BAME communities.

 

[Badgers]

Assume that Doncaster Races will be cancelled?

 

[Dogsauce]

Johnson’s reply to be challenged about the failings in test and tracking regime at PMQ was basically “why do you hate the NHS Mr Starmer?” and that Labour’s criticism was undermining public trust in the system. Disingenuous cunt.

 

[editor]

Innit?

 

[MrSki]

Johnson’s reply to be challenged about the failings in test and tracking regime at PMQ was basically “why do you hate the NHS Mr Starmer?” and that Labour’s criticism was undermining public trust in the system. Disingenuous cunt.

Always calling it the NHS track & trace when a large part of the set up (failing part) is run by Serco & other government favoured companies.

 

[quimcunx]

Always calling it the NHS track & trace when a large part of the set up (failing part) is run by Serco & other government favoured companies.

Information that starmer could and should have had and responded with.

 

[Lord Camomile]

Wow, they're just going straight in on teens and 20-somethings.

 

[Lord Camomile]

"Now you only need to remember the simple rule of 6.

There will be some exceptions."

Johnson's sentences don't know what each other are doing.

 

[Badgers]

All at the 'briefing' look like they have a good tan

#worldbeating

 

[Lord Camomile]

All at the 'briefing' look like they have a good tan

#worldbeating

Well, they do keep saying it's safer outside.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

If no more than six from different households can meet that’s Johnson fucked if he wants to meet up with his kids.

 

[Lord Camomile]

Some tough decisions to be made.



"You're fine to exist in your household"; let's not be hasty, Johnson hasn't finished yet.

 

[Ax^]

hmm so school & unis are completely safe

but opening them up have lead to the evil kids spreading the virus?


did he forget a lot of parents drop the kids to school and congregate outside them

 

[Lord Camomile]

If no more than six from different households can meet that’s Johnson fucked if he wants to meet up with his kids.

All evidence to date suggests the odds are against this particular hazard becoming an issue.

Sadly that ship sailed long ago on the hazard of Johnson himself.

 

[MrSki]

Hands Face Space.

HANDS: Wash your hands of anything that goes wrong.

FACE: Save face at all costs.

SPACE: Put space between you and any unpopular decision.

Nicked from here.

 

[Lord Camomile]

did he forget a lot of parents drop the kids to school and congregate outside them

Walking to the train station yesterday morning*, saw 10s of kids and parents walking to school and maybe 1%, if that, had masks on.

Not sure I blame the parents, tbh; if they're going to be living with kids who are spending all day in classes of 30+, what the fuck are they supposed to do?



*ironically to go work at a uni

 

[Ax^]

Hand Face space


so facepalm and run away

 

[wtfftw]

Walking to the train station yesterday morning*, saw 10s of kids and parents walking to school and maybe 1%, if that, had masks on.

Not sure I blame the parents, tbh; if they're going to be living with kids who are spending all day in classes of 30+, what the fuck are they supposed to do?



*ironically to go work at a uni

Well exactly. I dropped ftw off at nursery this morning and wore a mask today. So I couldn't kiss my child goodbye but everyone at drop off is cross contaminated anyway as they mingle once inside (within bubbles but drop off is timed with the bubble). It just seems stupid.

 

[Ax^]

Pretty normal for Boris is not spending christmas with his kids

 

[brogdale]

Some tough decisions to be made.

View attachment 229750

"You're fine to exist in your household"; let's not be hasty, Johnson hasn't finished yet.

The Joy of Six

 

[LDC]

The Joy of Six

I know, what with that and him going on about the 'moon (money) shot' and likening the quick tests to pregnancy ones, it's all a bit Carry on Pandemic.

 

[Badgers]

If no more than six from different households can meet that’s Johnson fucked if he wants to meet up with his kids.

Is he even seeing the current wife kid?

 

[Lord Camomile]

"We remain extremely ambitious" - first genuine thing he's said.

 

[brogdale]

I know, what with that and him going on about the 'moon (money) shot' and likening the quick tests to pregnancy ones, it's all a bit Carry on Pandemic.

Trouble is...as we approach Wave II...this one is called Carry on dying

 

[cupid_stunt]

Wow, they're just going straight in on teens and 20-somethings.d

That would be because all the data & evidence points to a particular problem amongst those age groups, local council leaders & local public health chiefs have been banging on about this for weeks, and finally the government has taken notice, because they have been spooked by the recent spike in new cases.

It's not a case of blaming everyone in those age groups, but pointing out the problem, in order to educate & give a wake-up call to those that have decided the rules don't apply to them, and get them to amend their behaviour for the greater good of society.

Are people seriously suggesting the data & evidence should be ignored, that they should just pretend there's no problem, and let the virus spread even more rapidly?

 

[brogdale]

That would be because all the data & evidence points to a particular problem amongst those age groups, local council leaders & local public health chiefs have been banging on about this for weeks, and finally the government has taken notice, because they have been spooked by the recent spike in new cases.

It's not a case of blaming everyone in those age groups, but pointing out the problem, in order to educate & give a wake-up call to those that have decided the rules don't apply to them, and get them to amend their behaviour for the greater good of society.

Are people seriously suggesting the data & evidence should be ignored, that they should just pretend there's no problem, and let the virus spread even more rapidly?

That wake up call being to compel teens to travel to and attend school/college and the twenty somethings to go to work, college or university.