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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

frogwoman said:
Idk. If infections are doubling daily that's serious.
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Who said infections are doubling daily?

I'm rusty on what the doubling times were estimated to be at the worst points of the pandemic so far but I dont think a daily doubling has been much of a feature of anything in this pandemic so far. Well I suppose it would be possible for crappy stats or testing regimes that were all over the place to have some figures that doubled from one day to the next. But that doesnt reflect reality and even with those sorts of limited figures, if I remember properly doubling times at the worst moments of the pandemic in various places around the world were still no less than several days, not a single day.
 
elbows said:
Who said infections are doubling daily?

I'm rusty on what the doubling times were estimated to be at the worst points of the pandemic so far but I dont think a daily doubling has been much of a feature of anything in this pandemic so far. Well I suppose it would be possible for crappy stats or testing regimes that were all over the place to have some figures that doubled from one day to the next. But that doesnt reflect reality and even with those sorts of limited figures, if I remember properly doubling times at the worst moments of the pandemic in various places around the world were still no less than several days, not a single day.
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I know they aren't, the government's reported figures show a massive jump over the weekend though from 1000 to nearly 3000 per day. And I guess that's pushed them into panic mode even though a lot are probably previously unreported cases. I've edited my post anyway
 
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xenon said:
It does make some sort of sense though. Trying to allow the economy to function as far as possible, schools, et cetera. Whilst limiting risks. what’s the alternative? And no I’m not excusing the fuck ups with the testing or any of that. But I mean even with A notional best government possible. What could they do? Shut everything and put everyone on furlough again? even if that were economically, idea logically, acceptable. You would still have all the problems of mental health morale et cetera.
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In terms of the cost, it's almost at the point where they should be abandoning conventional economics and coming up with some way of resetting the economy post covid, wiping out the deficit or somesuch, though nothing like that will happen. So, yes, within the logic of their system, it is a balancing act. But all that aside, just to focus on one aspect, how did we get from not being able to see your loved ones in their final days, at the start of this, through to mass houseparties and the abandonment of social distancing today? Cummings and similar apparently thought they could turn the tap on and off as the pressure on the NHS waxed and waned. Well, what a load of bollocks that was, we've seen a complete failure of the government's 'behavioural strategy', their 'nudges'. Never mind anything complex, they can't even manage to finger wag in a competent way (and of course Cummings own behaviour is part of the story). I'm as happy as the next person/poster to moan about 'selfish twats', but the real issue is a government that has taken from a nation of, by and large, socially aware adherents to one of fatalists and fatalist-hedonists. It hasn't even been a managed retreat.
 
Outside of my house (excluding in the street, and tbf, often in the street) I wear a mask all the time, because it's so clearly all over for so many people. Did the weekly shop on Monday, and grabbed a couple extra bags of pasta, noodles etc. I'm off for the next two days and I'm gonna inventory my kitchen cupboards and decide what to stock up on, as I no longer think that is unreasonable. No one cares, stridding about the place with no purpose, bumping into folk because they are too busy reading their phones.

If the hospitals fill up again, and we end up with only the essentiaI shops and schools left open, I can see the army being brought into police it this time. I think I said that back in April and it didn't happen, but since then the police have lost any credibility of being able to enforce a lockdown that they had, and I can only imagine the tory faithful with love the sight of tanks on the streets.
 
frogwoman said:
I know they aren't, the government's reported figures show a massive jump over the weekend though from 1000 to nearly 3000 per day. And I guess that's pushed them into panic mode even though a lot are probably previously unreported cases. I've edited my post anyway
Click to expand...

The numbers I've looked at suggest it was more like a leap from a bit under 2000 to a little under 3000 if I go by reporting date, and a variation on this theme over a slightly different period if I go by specimen date instead. They will be looking at 7 day averages and some other aspects of the testing/case figures, including percentage positive and changing demographics of those testing positive, as well as a bunch of other data. Also the specifics of outbreaks including the most common transmission settings detected by tracing/health protection teams, the situation in various countries in Europe etc. And probably some data that isnt shared publicly yet, such as whatever they are getting out of the sewage surveillance pilots.

Things have been building to this moment for weeks already, various causes for alarm have likely been popping up on the establishment radar for a while. The recent numbers were probably somewhat expected, to an extent at least, as the entire period of 'preparing to open schools imminently' has had an extra whiff of absurdity about it because everyones been able to see the numbers rising for a while. Signs they were rattled were there last week I think, and they are following in the footsteps of various european leaders who have felt the need to come out with stark new warnings in recent weeks, in the wake of very real indicators in their countries that the situation was growing worse.
 
They need to put people in the hospitality sector back on full furlough - OH has been back at work in one part time bar job for a few weeks now and has just been taken off furlough for his hospitality agency work, it was clear to me that it was all too soon, and furlough needs to be extended for the hospitality sector, along with some retraining/incentives for employment in other sectors (we would both be happy for work but there are thousands of better candidates for each job that is functioning right now).
 
elbows said:
The numbers I've looked at suggest it was more like a leap from a bit under 2000 to a little under 3000 if I go by reporting date, and a variation on this theme over a slightly different period if I go by specimen date instead. They will be looking at 7 day averages and some other aspects of the testing/case figures, including percentage positive and changing demographics of those testing positive, as well as a bunch of other data. Also the specifics of outbreaks including the most common transmission settings detected by tracing/health protection teams, the situation in various countries in Europe etc. And probably some data that isnt shared publicly yet, such as whatever they are getting out of the sewage surveillance pilots.

Things have been building to this moment for weeks already, various causes for alarm have likely been popping up on the establishment radar for a while. The recent numbers were probably somewhat expected, to an extent at least, as the entire period of 'preparing to open schools imminently' has had an extra whiff of absurdity about it because everyones been able to see the numbers rising for a while. Signs they were rattled were there last week I think, and they are following in the footsteps of various european leaders who have felt the need to come out with stark new warnings in recent weeks, in the wake of very real indicators in their countries that the situation was growing worse.
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Yes, according to this FT graphic of confirmed positive cases per 100 tests the inflection point appears to be mid July:

31CAE891-217E-43DC-87FA-8DA576773881.jpeg
 
chilango said:
The generation of profit limits transmission of the virus, right?
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The Corbynite virus (for the many, not the few) can’t thrive in the spirit of free enterprise, specifically the smell of unearned income actually breaks down the lipid membrane of the virus.
 
Still haven't seen it said explicitly, but general feeling does seem to be it won't actually affect businesses where people gather (pubs, cinemas, etc) as long each individual group is 6 or fewer. Which seems... odd.

I guess it'll still add to reducing transmissions overall, and 'allowing' a certain amount of risk for things we are still 'allowed' to do, which are as ever geared towards "keeping the economy going".
 
frogwoman said:
Guess I'm having Yom Kippur online then. :(
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I'm hoping our shul can still do the service to stream now, I don't know if this means they can't

I do agree with xenon - it is about risk mitigation to allow some more essential stuff to happen while less essential stuff doesn't have to. Still don't see why many people need to return to offices though, and I don't think many people will or employers insist

ETA, way it's done still totally incompetently.

Also agree with Wilf that the best thing would be to rethink the economy, but I can't think of any government less likely to do that. Maybe Trump's, but same unlikelihood really. I'd like to move all the people on council waiting lists into sustainable homes in city centres. They can go buy your fucking sandwiches.
 
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emanymton said:
I'm not convinced by the 'it's all the fault of young' people narrative.

The conservative leader or Bolton council blames it on young people, while one of the places closed is that well know institution of youth culture, The Conservative Club.

www.theboltonnews.co.uk

The Bolton bars and venues which had to close due to positive virus tests

SEVERAL bars and venues across Bolton have had to shut in recent days due to positive coronavirus tests.
www.theboltonnews.co.uk www.theboltonnews.co.uk

Hard to tell but the other places don't exactly look young person orientated.

When I am out and about i see more old people ignoring social distancing than young ones. Admittedly I'm not going out at 11pm on Friday and Saturday nights.
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I don't think anyone has suggested 'it's all the fault of young people', certainly not me, there'll always be several different things going on. What we do know is that cases have been tracked back to various settings, and the biggest single problem has been households mixing and house parties*, and we also know there's a specific issue in these settings with younger people, as reflected in test results. There's been loads of cases traced back to fairly large house parties, attended by mainly young people, and not just in the four nations of the UK.

This has been the case for weeks and plenty of local council leaders and local public health officers have been highlighting this problem, if it was just the government I would be sceptical.

Pubs haven't been as much of a problem so far, although I suspect that could change with the weather, hence why personally I would like to see more inspections & forced closures of those caught breaking the rules.

In the article you have linked to, a number of pubs & the Conservative Club are listed as having closed for a deep clean following, in most cases, a single customer or member of staff that has tested positive, there's nothing in that that suggests any of them had been breaking the rules. Pubs closing in such circumstances should not be confused with pubs being closed due to breaking covid rules over social distancing, etc., where there will be a far higher chance of covid spreading.

* In fact as I was typing this,there was a virologist on BBC News pointing out the vast majority of current transmission is within households, around the 80-90% mark, although that clearly includes all household infections, not limited to just households mixing and house parties, although they remain a major factor in the figures.
 
teqniq said:
i call bullshit.

www.mirror.co.uk

Matt Hancock blames British public for getting too many coronavirus tests

The Health Secretary shifted the blame for problems with the Covid-19 testing service - he pinpointed a rise in people without symptoms wrongly seeking a Covid-19 test, including if they're going on holiday
www.mirror.co.uk
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Well if this is true (and obviously the default assumption is that it’s a lie, coming as it does from a bunch of liars), it makes the recent increases in positivity rates from testing even more concerning than it would be otherwise.
 
teqniq said:
i call bullshit.

www.mirror.co.uk

Matt Hancock blames British public for getting too many coronavirus tests

The Health Secretary shifted the blame for problems with the Covid-19 testing service - he pinpointed a rise in people without symptoms wrongly seeking a Covid-19 test, including if they're going on holiday
www.mirror.co.uk

View attachment 229671
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What a stupid cunt Hancock is. Of all the things we should be chucking money at, it's testing. Anyone who has a slight fear of covid should be able to get tested and anyone who is about to do something risky (be it go on Holiday or going to a family party with some vulnerable people) should be able to get a test. There should be test centres in every town and city in the UK (even before the nonsense with Londoners getting sent to Aberdeen came about, I still had to go from Reading, one of the largest towns in the South East to Swindon to get my test) and your results should be back in 24 hours.

It's a fucking shambles and Hancock can fuck off.

And still Boris doesn't make an appearance. Where the fuck is he?
 
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