Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[littlebabyjesus]

And if one of the superspreaders is one of the people not wearing a mask?

Unless you can somehow identify superspreaders specifically in advance, everything attached to that phenomenon and trying to prevent it surely becomes a story of having to take tough actions to reduce spread potential between all people? A story I'm sure you are keen to resist as I expect the current nerves about renewed spread are not to your liking.

There is a lot of uncertaintly about how this operates, but from what I've been reading, people with particularly high viral loads may become superspreaders, and it's also very situation-dependent. So as I'm sure you know, choir practices have been implicated. One case had one person infect 60 others at one choir practice. Sure we need to know more, of course, but tbh if wearing masks in shops is making a material difference but things like singing or shouting make things not just a little bit worse but way way worse, which the evidence does point to, then really the last thing anyone should be doing is confronting non-mask-wearers. The way to cause least damage is to leave them be. And it's a non-problem as far as I can see as the numbers involved are so small.

 

[LDC]

Not panic at all, really. I'm one of those people who hates running out of things and usually has a small stockpile of non-perishable goods in, so it's just a matter of topping that up a bit.

I donated the extra supplies we bought (few boxes of mostly tinned and dried goods with some toiletries) to a local food bank after it became clear shops w ere going to be OK stock wise.

I have concerns about this winter and I do plan to get a few boxes in again in a month of 2 in preparation for the winter though. As well as a tonne of firewood and a few other bits and pieces.

 

[elbows]

Excellent, DEFRA are finally ready to make a noise about the new sewage testing regime:

Coronavirus: Sewage testing for Covid-19 begins in England

Samples will be checked for signs of the virus, to get early warnings of spikes in infection levels.

www.bbc.co.uk

The Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs says this has begun at 44 wastewater treatment sites.

A Defra spokesperson said the government was working with scientists, water companies and the devolved governments in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Environment Secretary George Eustice said: "The aim of this new research is to give us a head start on where new outbreaks are likely to occur.

"Sampling is being carried out to further test the effectiveness of this new science. Research remains at an early stage and we are still refining our methods."

I'd obviously rather they had already finished refining their methods but this is progress anyway. And some of the downplaying of how ready this is is probably because they dont intend to share the data with the public for a while yet. They will probably privately compare what it shows to what the standard testing is showing in terms of infection trends in particular areas, and then at some point will share that and hopefully if its good enough it will eventually become part of the regular stats we do get to see.

 

[Hyperdark]

In all fairness to GG, there are a lot of them about
But as mentioned, you can't appeal to the good nature of someone who hasn't got any and you risk annoying someone genuine probably best to just keep an eye on them and avoid

 

[existentialist]

In all fairness to GG, there are a lot of them about
But as mentioned, you can't appeal to the good nature of someone who hasn't got any and you risk annoying someone genuine probably best to just keep an eye on them and avoid

Like I said before, I think that the best way that we are going to get the largest number of people wearing masks will be to wear masks ourselves.

 

[teuchter]

Seeing as there seems to be some evidence that things like singing and talking increase the risk of spread, maybe it would make more sense to ask people not to talk or shout unnecessarily in places like supermarkets or trains.

My observations on trains so far is that a large number of people are not bothering with a mask, or are wearing one on their chin. And quite a lot of them seem to be the same people sitting in groups having shouty conversations. Telling everyone to shut up would have multiple benefits - remove the incentive to take masks off, and remove the extra risk generated by talking. Also, it would make them shut up and everyone could have a bit of peace and quiet.

 

[Indeliblelink]

M25 could be used to seal off London if Covid-19 surges

THE M25 could be used to seal off the capital if there is a spike in Covid-19 infections.

www.theargus.co.uk

 

[teuchter]

I think the M25 could work quite well as a line of defence against people from places like Brighton and other disease-ridden bits of the south coast where everyone is giving each other Covid by crowding onto beaches constantly, as I have seen about in the papers.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I think the M25 could work quite well as a line of defence against people from places like Brighton and other disease-ridden bits of the south coast where everyone is giving each other Covid by crowding onto beaches constantly, as I have seen about in the papers.

The only Sussex beach that has had problems with over-crowding is Brighton, and that's because of outsiders, many from London, pouring into the city and spreading their plague around. The inflection rate for Brighton has almost doubled in a week, and is now at 6.5 per 100,000, still lower than the average across London, and well below the likes of Hackney and City of London on 15.6.

As Worthing is on 2.7, I would be happy to see the M25 used as the border if London needs locking down, even happier if another border was introduced across the South Downs, preventing people from Kent & north Sussex coming here, where the likes of Ashford is on 12.4 and Crawley is on 11.6.

The problem is the north, not the south.

 

[elbows]

I'd be complaining if there were no signs that the governments planning involved stronger travel restrictions than we saw last time. I've got no sense of what is actually likely to happen this time though because I dont know what the scale and spread of the virus will be like. I could probably argue that they escaped serious criticism on this front last time only because their claims that London was weeks ahead of everywhere else turned out to be a poor fit with reality. If the much greater virus surveillance this time reveals particular areas of concern at a time when levels of infection are high, then I would expect they will be under pressure to act on this front this time. There are lots of ifs and buts in this, so its easier for the press to make it a dramatic London lockdown story and get back to that narrative, which they were fond of last time around too despite the government not actually doing anything in that way at that time.

 

[Orang Utan]

A travelling fair has just pitched up on the wasteland next to my work. Very surprised the council has allowed this.

 

[cupid_stunt]

A travelling fair has just pitched up on the wasteland next to my work. Very surprised the council has allowed this.

I had to pop over to Shoreham on Saturday, there's a travelling fair set-up in Lancing, and a circus in Shoreham.

 

[Orang Utan]

I wouldn’t want to go to a fair where there’s a bunch of people screaming

 

[SpookyFrank]

I wouldn’t want to go to a fair where there’s a bunch of people screaming

Presumably attendance is optional.

Still, add travelling funfairs to the list of things likely to be utterly ruined that I hadn't even thought about. I doubt the trade is set up in a way that gives workers access to furlough pay etc

 

[sheothebudworths]

More news on the 90 minute tests -

Coronavirus: UK virologists criticise handling of Covid testing contracts

Exclusive: experts say decisions apparently being made on ideological grounds

www.theguardian.com

 

[sheothebudworths]

I should probably have included the full link to the original article in my earlier post, too (instead of the clickable one in the update around schools), which included this -

One of the new tests is made by DnaNudge, a company that analyses people’s DNA from saliva in order to sell them a wristband and smartphone app that will “nudge” them towards healthy food choices. “We’re all different because our genetic make-up is different, in fact your DNA is unique to you. This genetic code also determines which foods are good or bad for us,” says its website.

Coronavirus '90-minute tests to be provided in care homes and hospitals'

Experts however have doubts about unproven swab tests for the diagnosis of flu and Covid-19

www.theguardian.com

 

[Mation]

While I wouldn't say anything to someone with no mask visible, I have asked people with a mask round their chin to put it on properly (whilst in an enclosed train carriage). I was polite (for 2020 covid standards), and it worked then and there, bar one person.

The only Sussex beach that has had problems with over-crowding is Brighton, and that's because of outsiders, many from London, pouring into the city and spreading their plague around. The inflection rate for Brighton has almost doubled in a week, and is now at 6.5 per 100,000, still lower than the average across London, and well below the likes of Hackney and City of London on 15.6.

I was in Brighton this weekend and the beach wasn't crowded, despite the hot weather.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I was in Brighton this weekend and the beach wasn't crowded, despite the hot weather.

It has calmed down after a few peak days, last week there was an appeal from the council on the regional TV & radio news not to go there.

 

[Mation]

It has calmed down after a few peak days, last week there was an appeal from the council on the regional TV & radio news not to go there.

Chances of anyone from London having seen that are approximately zero!

 

[Mation]

I should probably have included the full link to the original article in my earlier post, too (instead of the clickable one in the update around schools), which included this -

Coronavirus '90-minute tests to be provided in care homes and hospitals'

Experts however have doubts about unproven swab tests for the diagnosis of flu and Covid-19

www.theguardian.com

Wonder whose mate/family-member owns those.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Chances of anyone from London having seen that are approximately zero!

Indeed, but would reduce visitors from nearer, it's not just Londoners that flock to Brighton, which is why in my original post I said 'many from London', as in not all, not even a majority.

 

[existentialist]

Wonder whose mate/family-member owns those.

The link will be so blatant that it won't be long before we all know...

 

[elbows]

There is a natural bias from authorities and some experts in this pandemic away from things that are hugely inconvenient with massive implications. We saw this clearly with attitudes and denials in regards asymptomatic cases & transmission, but that stuff was unsustainable and they had to accept the likely reality in the end. I have no reason to think its different with schools and the role children in spreading the virus. I could be wrong, but I'd need very good and strong evidence to convince me, and anyway as I've said before I think that disruption to adult routines is one of the reasons school closures are effective in pandemics in the first place.

My mental health improves when the points I think are vital get properly covered in the media etc. I was all ready for a frustrating time over the next month not seeing the point I put in bold above covered properly during the debate about schools, but no, here it is already, relief for me!

Current testing and contact tracing is inadequate to prevent a second wave of coronavirus after schools in the UK reopen, scientists have warned.

Increased transmission would also result from parents not having to stay at home with their children, they say.

Researchers said getting pupils back to school was important - but more work was needed to keep the virus in check.

Testing and tracing 'key to schools returning', scientists say

The UK's test and trace schemes are not yet good enough to stop a virus resurgence, scientists say.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[zahir]

Blackburn sets up its own local contact tracing.

Local authority sets up test-and-trace system to plug gaps in English scheme

Teams of Covid hunters in Blackburn with Darwen aim to offset national failings

www.theguardian.com

In Blackburn with Darwen, where the infection rate is more than 10 times England’s average, dozens of staff have been seconded from other departments to contact residents who could not be reached by the national system.

The council said under its new model, which was supported by Public Health England, local teams would track down people who could not be reached by the national system after 48 hours. If local officials still did not make contact after two days, council workers would visit their address to pass on advice and offer support.

 

[elbows]

There are tentative signs that even the government are aware of the gaps in the system and that boots on the ground are needed. And I would expect that to be handled by local teams.

A little bit more detail from Simon Clarke, the UK's minister for regional growth and local government, who has been responding to warnings by scientists of a second wave of coronavirus if the current test and trace system isn't improved.

He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that, according to current data, the test and trace system is reaching 81% of positive cases and 75% of their closest contacts; but that No 10 "fully accept...that we need to keep driving those numbers up" and it was looking at "whether there should be some physical follow-up" if people can't be traced by phone.

From 9:21 of the BBC live updates page today https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-53591031

 

[elbows]

I note that in the current phase, it is common to read things like this:

But if it’s mainly the young who are being infected at the moment, that death rate would be even lower which means we wouldn’t see an increase for quite some time.

From a BBC live updates entry at 13:00 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-53591031

The reason I bring this up is because I'm not entirely sure where the perception that its mainly the young being infected at the moment comes from. I end up wondering whether there is some misreporting or confusion involved, because when I look at certain charts in the weekly surveillance report, I see things like this, where the oldest age group still has the highest proportion of positive tests:




And in their summary near the start of the document, it says "Case detections were highest in adults aged 85 and over."


From https://assets.publishing.service.g...ID19_Surveillance_Report_week_31_FINAL_V2.pdf

Without looking for other data or explanations, I am tempted to think that its either down to some people confusing biggest rises with highest totals. But then the 85+ group seems to show the biggest recent rise too, in terms of test percentage positivity. I suppose it could also be that the raw numbers for the younger age groups are actually higher, and the 85+ groups only come out top in those charts because they arent showing raw numbers but rather numbers adjusted to be per 100,000 or as a percentage of tests carried out. Either way, I think its useful for people to see the detail on this one.

 

[teuchter]

Is it not the case that older people who are infected are much more likely to be tested, because they are much more likely to be symptomatic?

 

[frogwoman]

Young people are going to spread it to older people tho.

 

[andysays]

Is it not the case that older people who are infected are much more likely to be tested, because they are much more likely to be symptomatic?

Not sure about "much more", but I'd imagine that's a factor to some extent.

 

[teuchter]

Not sure about "much more", but I'd imagine that's a factor to some extent.

According to this

Table 1 Policy summary

www.nature.com

3 times more likely for an infected 70+yo to be symptomatic than an infected <20yo