Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
Couple of northern ones as well
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
- Start date
Couple of northern ones as well
Doctor Carrot
Marxist Henchman
Ahh, good point I forgot to add the link.
It's the Cambridge modelling showing r rate but the site has lots of other tabs to check. They currently predict death rate to stop decreasing by mid June
Nowcasting and Forecasting - MRC Biostatistics Unit
The recently published reports on our Nowcasting of Forecasting of COVID-19 are available to view. The four most recent are below and every report published so far can be clicked on in the left tool bar. Report on Nowcasting and Forecasting – 6th August 2020 Report on Nowcasting and Forecasting...www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk
Thanks for this. What does Crl mean? I'm pretty rubbish at statistics despite having a social science degree!
Doctor Carrot
Marxist Henchman
Yeah, it's looking like regional lockdowns are going to be something to look forward to. As an outbreak falls in one area it rises in another.
Supine
Newt Member
Its the upper and lower confidence levels for the data. The black line is the estimate and the limits are +/- upper and lower limits the data supports.
Doctor Carrot
Marxist Henchman
I should've just googled what lower confidence level means in statistics. I thought it was something specific to their modeling and not something used in statistics in general. I can't even remember what I got for statistics at university but it must've scraped me through at least!
prunus
Tick tock.
To be precise they are not limits exactly, they are the bounds of the region that the data suggest the real value is (in this case) 95% likely to be within. The actual number could be higher than the upper number, or lower than the lower number, but the chance of either of those being the case is only 1 in 20.
Edit to add: I say ‘only’ 1 in 20; it’s worth bearing in mind that 1 in 20 probability events do happen quite a lot - about 1 time in 20 in fact.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
A scattering of stories tells us nothing. How many schools are there in the UK?Spotted a story about school closing due to Corona today so thought I'd see what I could find over the last week with a search.
Turns out schools don't actually appear to be as minor a vector as we've been told.
Northampton primary closes after Covid-19 outbreak
Two children test positive for coronavirus as West Yorkshire school prepares to reopen
School closes after seven staff get coronavirus
Lincoln school shuts after member of staff tests positive for Covid-19
It will be closed for a whilewww.lincolnshirelive.co.uk
Essex primary school shuts immediately after coronavirus fears
The school won't reopen until next weekwww.essexlive.news
School 'bubble' closes as member of staff displays Covid-19 symptoms
A PRIMARY school in Amesbury has closed one of its bubbles today, after a member of staff started displaying symptoms of Covid-19.www.salisburyjournal.co.uk
School confirms coronavirus case as pupils to return across country
Woolaston Primary School in Lydney sent out a letter explaining that an individual had tested positive for the viruswww.plymouthherald.co.uk
TopCat
Putin fanboy
Musicians Union call for two metre rule to be dropped...
Fuck this selfish shit.
Coronavirus: Two-metre rule 'must be relaxed for musicians'
The government says it's open to "innovative" ideas, after a union urges it to ease social distancing.
www.bbc.co.uk
phillm
Trolling through Life (TM)
My maths teacher at school would do his butt at graphs without scales. "Are they rabbits, elephants, whales boy, what are they?". And as you trembled before him he would exclaim "Nonsense" that's what they are...
Brainaddict
slight system overdrive
I've been a bit wary of Byline Times in case it turned out to be another Canary, but it seems to have higher standards than that so far, and I enjoyed this on the British ruling class and Coronavirus: Beyond Exceptional: The Etonian English Imperialism at the Heart of a Deadly COVID-19 Crisis – Byline Times
elbows
Well-Known Member
There were more reported institutional outbreaks in schools than in hospitals in the latest report.
My break is going well, although I have discovered that if I just pop in briefly and make the occasional post like this one, it still feels like a break compared to what I was doing before.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
Some quick googling suggests there area about 1,200 hospitals, and 141,000 hospital beds in the UK.
And there are about 17,000 primary schools, and 4,700,000 primary school children.
So, more outbreaks occuring in primary schools than hospitals doesn't seem immediately concerning to me.
It means that something like 1 in 150 hospitals has seen an outbreak, and 1 in 1100 primary schools has seen an outbreak.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I'm not commenting on how much it matters, I just put it there to provide some context for a subject that had already come up. Probably I would make some further points if I was not on a break from my normal stuff with this, but since I am on a break I will mostly resist. I will just say that it is completely understandable why some are interested in such details given the partial restart of schools, and the propensity of some others to downplay school stuff entirely.
While I am here, may as well mention that the daily press briefing stats recently switched back to showing actual number of ventilator beds occupied by Covid-19 patients, rather than the percentage of capacity used stats that they switched to for ages. I havent analysed the data yet to see if it shows anything that was previously obscured by us being given percentages rather than actual numbers.
While I am here, may as well mention that the daily press briefing stats recently switched back to showing actual number of ventilator beds occupied by Covid-19 patients, rather than the percentage of capacity used stats that they switched to for ages. I havent analysed the data yet to see if it shows anything that was previously obscured by us being given percentages rather than actual numbers.
editor
hiraethified
I was really surprised just how empty central London still is
www.urban75.org
Deserted London: the empty streets of Soho, Leicester Square, Piccadilly Circus, Chinatown and Trafalgar Square, June 2020 -
The ongoing coronavirus lockdown has reduced the once bustling centre of London into a ghost town, with almost all its shops, businesses, cafes and bars remaining closed for over two months. I walked up from Brixton and took a stroll around town, and was genuinely shocked by the silence around...
www.urban75.org
Sunray
Its sunny somewhere.
Well, I’ve been wondering how many London was getting, can’t see a date on this, on mobile.
www.independent.co.uk
Two weeks and it’s all but gone in this very big city.
Shall we build a wall?
London coronavirus rate now lowest in UK and disease could be wiped out there in weeks
The capital records less than 24 new infections everyday
www.independent.co.uk
Two weeks and it’s all but gone in this very big city.
Shall we build a wall?
I was really surprised just how empty central London still is
Deserted London: the empty streets of Soho, Leicester Square, Piccadilly Circus, Chinatown and Trafalgar Square, June 2020 -
The ongoing coronavirus lockdown has reduced the once bustling centre of London into a ghost town, with almost all its shops, businesses, cafes and bars remaining closed for over two months. I walked up from Brixton and took a stroll around town, and was genuinely shocked by the silence around...
Not at Parliament Square it isn't, many thousands there, that will be tourists staying away
editor
hiraethified
That's just for today for a few hours. It was empty on Thursday.
Sunray
Its sunny somewhere.
So London is CURED!
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
Ahh, good point I forgot to add the link.
It's the Cambridge modelling showing r rate but the site has lots of other tabs to check. They currently predict death rate to stop decreasing by mid June
Nowcasting and Forecasting - MRC Biostatistics Unit
The recently published reports on our Nowcasting of Forecasting of COVID-19 are available to view. The four most recent are below and every report published so far can be clicked on in the left tool bar. Report on Nowcasting and Forecasting – 6th August 2020 Report on Nowcasting and Forecasting...
By my reckoning the death rate has already stopped declining. In the last week the 7-day rolling average of reported deaths has only fallen by 3%, which given the reporting lag could well mean that the actual death rate has increased.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
It's Mon-Fri only now.
philosophical
Well-Known Member
They can't handle even the pretty poor scrutiny by the media at the daily briefings.
This is the government we are obliged to endure and suffer under.
This is the government we are obliged to endure and suffer under.
wemakeyousoundb
hopefully not gimboid
it's a london ting
DaveCinzano
WATCH OUT, GEORGE, HE'S GOT A SCREWDRIVER!
Brainaddict
slight system overdrive
I was just in a place where nobody was practicing social distancing at all, mostly people below forty. I suspect most of them think 'I'm young-ish, I don't live with the vulnerable people, it doesn't matter too much if I get it'. And I realise that I somewhat had that kind of attitude before I (probably) got it. And I blame the press for that, and fucking Johnson obviously. I and the other people in my house who had it would give this advice: no matter how healthy you think you are, try very hard to avoid it, because when you have it you'll wish you hadn't. This is the advice the government should have given a lot more strongly: it will quite possibly matter if you get it, whatever age you are. Try really hard not to get it.
Orang Utan
Psychick Worrier Ov Geyoor
Why the fuck were you there then?
Miss-Shelf
I'll meet you further on up the road
I was trying reasonably hard not to catch it but I have probably had it anyway. And before I had it, I was pretty resigned to getting it at some point because living in London will offer many opportunities to get it. I thought it wouldn't be that hard to have it. I I was wrong. It's been debilitating and long lasting. My advice is also try not to get it.
Similar threads
