Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[crossthebreeze]

Does anyone know on what date johnson first said work from home if you can?

16th March I think
edit, yes it was PM tells Britons to avoid non-essential travel and contact:

“Now is the time for everyone to stop non-essential contact with others and to stop all unnecessary travel. We need people to start working from home where they possibly can. And you should avoid pubs, clubs, theatres and other such social venues,”

 

[quimcunx]

16th March I think
edit, yes it was PM tells Britons to avoid non-essential travel and contact:

Thank you.

 

[Mattym]

Now everyone will know who are the unsupervised children because they will be the ones not wearing masks.

The lack of adults/older children in their vicinity may also be a bit of a giveaway.

 

[MickiQ]

What are unsupervised primary school children doing on public transport?

Do they not have school buses around where you live?

 

[MickiQ]

Public transport is defined by the public having access to it. SEN transport they dont?

There's not just SEN transport, my kids (apart from the youngest) went to primary school on a bus (double decker if I remember correctly) containing only primary school children and was not available to adults other than teachers and TA's. Mrs Q took them to the bus stop until they got hold enough to be embarassed by their friends seeing them with their Mum.

 

[teuchter]

What is the current state of evidence as far as the effectiveness of face masks is concerned?

 

[Lurdan]

Thread by Nick Stripe of the ONS looking at the level of excess deaths above the five year average and the possible reasons for them. Archived here. The majority were in care homes.

Our analysis shows:

• Many deaths where COVID was not mentioned were displaced from hospitals to care homes and private homes
• Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) for “non-COVID” deaths were generally higher in regions with higher COVID ASMRs
• Excess deaths where COVID was not mentioned were predominantly in the very eldest

• Men accounted for more at first but from mid-April this switched to women
• Analysis by leading underlying causes of death shows all leading causes above or at their 5-yr averages
• Most notably, they show v significant increases in deaths due to Dementia & Alzheimer Disease and for deaths due to old age & frailty (“signs, symptoms and ill-defined conditions”)

Deaths with these causes account for two thirds of all “non-COVID” excess deaths

Dementia increases are so sharp it’s implausible that they are unrelated to COVID
They generally affect the very old, they would tend to impact women to a greater extent than men simply due to pop structure. Especially once care home epidemics took hold with ltd testing

People with dementia are more likely to have communication problems describing symptoms (...)

No reason to believe that COVID-19 has been knowingly omitted from death certs. Symptoms may not be apparent

But we cannot discount the impact of changes to normal routines for vulnerable care home residents following lockdown. These could have had adverse consequences too

The balance of evidence so far points to undiagnosed COVID in the elderly being the most likely explanation for a majority of excess deaths that did not mention CV on certs

This fits: demography, locations, esp where testing was sparse, causes of death & timings of peaks (...)

 

[Lurdan]

Thread by Lewis Goodall of Newsnight about Covid and Dementia in care homes. Archived here. It's in advance of a report on the programme tonight.

(...) the primary virus containment method in care homes is confinement of residents to their rooms. This is basically impossible for dementia patients. I was in St Cecilia's, a specialist dementia home in Scarborough today. Staff there told me they have to keep repeating to their residents why they have to stay in their rooms. Some can understand for a while. But some can't understand at all - and they go wandering.

There are things they can do - including reverse isolating, isolating residents who can understand as opposed to those who can't. As a last resort they can try and put PPE on residents but this isn't easy either. Imagine trying to put a mask on someone who doesn't understand why. Dementia homes are having to recognise they have to let deeply affected patients wander the corridors. But the infection risk here is very obvious. Residents often try and hug others, if they're infected or not. As a manager told me "it only takes a second" (...)

But people with dementia have been affected in other ways. Dementia and depression are often connected and many dementia residents are falling into a deep sadness. They can't see their families, they don't understand (or can't retain) why not and it's profoundly affecting them. When depression comes and lack of stimulation and routine sets in, I've been told that the speed of cognitive and physical decline can be remarkable. Residents are stopping eating, drinking and losing the ability to speak.

I spoke to Trevor, whose wife Yvonne developed Alzheimer's at 53. He worries she's forgotten his face, having not been able visit her in 2.5 months: "The sparkle went from her eyes. She's in a lost world. Carers wearing masks made it hard - scary. She doesn't recognise them." As Kate Lea of @alzheimerssoc told me: “social isolation has a huge and disproportionate impact on people with dementia" - this is why so many of our non-covid excess deaths seem to be coming from our dementia sufferers: “if this was our children we’d be screaming from the rooftops”

 

[Lurdan]

Well this is all a bit depressing. Perhaps we should give ourselves a morale boost.

By thinking about what we'd like to do to Digby fucking Jones.

Britain needs new Royal Yacht Britannia to provide 'morale boost', says former trade minister - Telegraph (archived version)

He said: "Why now? [It would be] one of the biggest morale boosts you can have. You'd have it doing tours of Britain, and open days you'd be amazed how many people will come to that.
"And why now? Because the nation is going to come through this in better shape. If we actually believe in ourselves. That's what we need to believe in ourselves ...
"We have a damn good chance in this country and a royal yacht at this moment would just be one of those good quality delivery messages."

 

[Spandex]

what we'd like to do to Digby fucking Jones.

Maybe we could cut costs by making Digby Jones the New Royal Yacht Britannia. Smash a bottle of champagne over his head and slide him into the sea.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Let's hope they've got this right, if so, it's bloody good news.

The number of people with coronavirus has more than halved in the last week, according to the latest official figures.

Data released by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) showed 53,000 people in England had the virus at any one time during the last two weeks of May. That's down from 133,000 in the last round of figures.

The ONS says there is now a consistent downward trend - from more than 0.4% of the population being infected at the end of April down to 0.1% at the end of May. The data also shows an estimated 39,000 people a week are currently catching COVID-19, down from 54,000 last week.

Coronavirus cases in UK have more than halved in last week - ONS figures

The Office for National Statistics says there is now a consistent downward trend in coronavirus cases.

news.sky.com

 

[MrSki]

Not looking so good in the South West though. Latest R figures.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Not looking so good in the South West though. Latest R figures.

SW has been far less badly hit, though, and the pattern does appear to be that the harder you're hit, the faster you come down.

This site (my computer says it isn't a secure site, btw, in case you click it) shows useful info of various kinds. The hospitalisation figures show that those in hospital in the SW with covid-19 fell from 323 on 24 May, the date of that estimate, to 234 on 3 June. The number has levelled out over the last week, suggesting that the R number on 24 June was probably very close to 1, but certainly nowhere near 1.3. Not great news though also not terrible, but the SW is still doing better than anywhere else, and its hospitalisation rate is now at around a quarter of its peak.

 

[The39thStep]

What is the current state of evidence as far as the effectiveness of face masks is concerned?

Must be some as here in Portugal the Council here has just given out five free ones with their local magazine .
Compulsory in shops , ordering at the bar and on public transport .

 

[Orang Utan]

How do you download the app anyway?

What app?

 

[editor]

Coivid raves!

 

[editor]

Justice for Belly Mujinga

Streatham MP Bell Ribeiro-Addy leads Parliamentary call for investigation into death of Belly Mujinga

Streatham MP Bell Ribeiro-Addy has called for an investigation into the death of Belly Mujinga, putting an Early Day Motion down in Parliament.

www.brixtonbuzz.com

 

[Brainaddict]

I'm seeing increasing claims from right-wing nuts on social media that there's some sort of conspiracy to overstate CV-19 deaths. Partly it seems to be a way of defending the UK's terrible record with the virus, but whatever the reason it seems to fall along the culture war lines that the Tory party have successfully helped open up.

 

[existentialist]

I'm seeing increasing claims from right-wing nuts on social media that there's some sort of conspiracy to overstate CV-19 deaths. Partly it seems to be a way of defending the UK's terrible record with the virus, but whatever the reason it seems to fall along the culture war lines that the Tory party have successfully helped open up.

I've been in a meeting today with a colleague who holds very much the same view. And rants about the disloyalty of the Welsh First Secretary for not following Westminster. There's also some kind of conspiracy theory about how Dr Neil Ferguson has some kind of financial interest in upping the ante.

 

[editor]

Well, this is nice

The Tory MP spearheading efforts to promote the Covid-19 contact-tracing app trial on the Isle of Wight appears to have broken lockdown rules at a barbecue also attended by the chairman of the Brexit party and political journalists, the Guardian has learned.

Bob Seely went to the evening gathering hosted by the Spectator magazine’s deputy editor, Freddy Gray, in the village of Seaview on the island last month. Richard Tice, the Brexit party chairman, and his partner, the political journalist Isabel Oakeshott, were also there.

Tory MP attended lockdown barbecue with journalists

Bob Seely was at gathering when guidance said you could only meet one other person

www.theguardian.com

 

[editor]

Wales says Dim Diolch to English tourists....

Police turned away more than 1,000 cars from one beauty spot in just two days for breaching lockdown rules.

Dyfed-Powys Police said many people officers spoke to in the Brecon Beacons were from England who said they did not know about Wales' different rules.

People in England can travel an unlimited distance from home. In Wales it is limited to five miles.

The force's commissioner has said the UK government "hasn't been all that clear" on the differences.

Supt Steve Davies said fines were issued if people had "clearly flouted the rules".

Coronavirus: Police turn away 1,000 cars in two days

Police say many people officers spoke to were from England and thought lockdown rules were the same.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[editor]

The United (guffaw) Kingdom:

 

[Supine]

 

[phillm]

I've been in a meeting today with a colleague who holds very much the same view. And rants about the disloyalty of the Welsh First Secretary for not following Westminster. There's also some kind of conspiracy theory about how Dr Neil Ferguson has some kind of financial interest in upping the ante.

All Gates leads to Bill Roads.

 

[Doctor Carrot]

He said: "Why now? [It would be] one of the biggest morale boosts you can have. You'd have it doing tours of Britain, and open days you'd be amazed how many people will come to that.
"And why now? Because the nation is going to come through this in better shape. If we actually believe in ourselves. That's what we need to believe in ourselves ...
"We have a damn good chance in this country and a royal yacht at this moment would just be one of those good quality delivery messages."

Wtf is it with our culture that produces utter fuckwits like this who constantly shit on about 'oh if only we believe in ourselves more' yeah just fucking believe and good stuff happens.

Believe that Brexit will be a marvelous boon for economic growth because we're English, believe that a highly infectious virus won't infect us and even if it does we'll just brush it off because we're English, believe that we can strike our own path in dealing with a fucking global pandemic and not have tens of thousands of people die because we're English. Believe in our world-beating tack and trace wankapp because we're English. Believe that there won't be a second wave and people will follow our half baked rules because of British (English) common sense. Believe that we'll be back to normal and everything will be as it was before because we're English.

The sooner this asinine bollocks is wiped from our culture the better off we'll all be. Fat chance of that happening any time soon though.

 

[little_legs]

Even if that is true, a lot of the decisions are being made by politicians, not public health officials. It would take a special kind of idiot to claim that British politicians are the best in the world...

Who are driven in ministerial cars. So who cares how them plebs get to work.

 

[Doctor Carrot]

View attachment 216305

What's this? Without context it's just lines. Is it deaths? Cases? Hospital admissions? Deaths in care homes? R rate?

 

[Artaxerxes]

Spotted a story about school closing due to Corona today so thought I'd see what I could find over the last week with a search.

Turns out schools don't actually appear to be as minor a vector as we've been told.

Northampton primary closes after Covid-19 outbreak

Two children test positive for coronavirus as West Yorkshire school prepares to reopen

School closes after seven staff get coronavirus

Lincoln school shuts after member of staff tests positive for Covid-19

It will be closed for a while

www.lincolnshirelive.co.uk

Essex primary school shuts immediately after coronavirus fears

The school won't reopen until next week

www.essexlive.news

School 'bubble' closes as member of staff displays Covid-19 symptoms

A PRIMARY school in Amesbury has closed one of its bubbles today, after a member of staff started displaying symptoms of Covid-19.

www.salisburyjournal.co.uk

School confirms coronavirus case as pupils to return across country

Woolaston Primary School in Lydney sent out a letter explaining that an individual had tested positive for the virus

www.plymouthherald.co.uk

 

[Doctor Carrot]

Spotted a story about school closing due to Corona today so thought I'd see what I could find over the last week with a search.

Turns out schools don't actually appear to be as minor a vector as we've been told.

Northampton primary closes after Covid-19 outbreak

Two children test positive for coronavirus as West Yorkshire school prepares to reopen

School closes after seven staff get coronavirus

Lincoln school shuts after member of staff tests positive for Covid-19

It will be closed for a while

www.lincolnshirelive.co.uk

Essex primary school shuts immediately after coronavirus fears

The school won't reopen until next week

www.essexlive.news

School 'bubble' closes as member of staff displays Covid-19 symptoms

A PRIMARY school in Amesbury has closed one of its bubbles today, after a member of staff started displaying symptoms of Covid-19.

www.salisburyjournal.co.uk

School confirms coronavirus case as pupils to return across country

Woolaston Primary School in Lydney sent out a letter explaining that an individual had tested positive for the virus

www.plymouthherald.co.uk

Two south west stories there. The situation with the R rate here is cause for concern.

 

[Supine]

What's this? Without context it's just lines. Is it deaths? Cases? Hospital admissions? Deaths in care homes? R rate?

Ahh, good point I forgot to add the link.

It's the Cambridge modelling showing r rate but the site has lots of other tabs to check. They currently predict death rate to stop decreasing by mid June

Nowcasting and Forecasting - MRC Biostatistics Unit

The recently published reports on our Nowcasting of Forecasting of COVID-19 are available to view. The four most recent are below and every report published so far can be clicked on in the left tool bar. Report on Nowcasting and Forecasting – 6th August 2020 Report on Nowcasting and Forecasting...

www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk