Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[freakydave]

It's driven of desperation though. When you see people who have lived here since they were small children who by rights should call this country their home; only to be abused by pen pushers because there is no consequence, it's really serious. It's far from ideal timing, but I support the BLM protesters.

I don't want to get into that because I am very sympathetic to the message, I just think that the virus is still too dangerous for any kind of gatherings.

I recognise that it's a pointless thing for me to say as well because being against something like this happening is a bit like being against the virus happening, I'm just venting it on here because I feel a bit alienated from my facebook. I don't want an argument, I just despair to be honest. If/when there is a really dangerous pandemic, we are screwed.

 

[Orang Utan]

if you don't want to get into it, don't spout shit

 

[gosub]

I would try not to worry too much. Its outdoors and the protests start with distancing and masks. Infection rate in london for instance is thought to be 0.5%. The numbers involved in the less distanced bits of the protest will be smaller. Hopefully anyone who feels ill will stay home.... so if you have 1000 protester there would be a maximum of 5 people but probably fewer. Then they are hopefully mostly wearing mouth covers most of the time.

Of course the police dont socially distance from themselves or protesters and they kettle protesters and they are allegedly essential workers so been at higher risk throughout lockdown and may feel pressure to work even if they dont feel 100%. So that could increase risk.

Even then there are probably far fewer protesters than people who have returned to work in enclosed spaces travelling there in enclosed spaces the last couple of weeks.

I mean none if it is great but if we actually had a way to track transmission I'm not convinced the protesters would be a significant contributor

Just my opinion obviously.

You are out of date with your r rate. https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/ ,

 

[littlebabyjesus]

You are out of date with your r rate. https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/ ,

Maybe. Or maybe the Zoe Covid study is right. It estimates 6,336-8,426 new cases daily in England, fewer than half the number the Cambridge lot estimate (although its estimate is just of symptomatic cases, which may explain the difference). That's the problem with the models and estimates - few of them agree with one another; some disagree very widely as to both the size and direction of the epidemic right now, as here.

COVID Symptom Study

I don't know tbh which one to believe. The Zoe study does at least have the advantage of the 3.8 million data points of its ongoing survey. Number of people in hospital continues to fall in most places, which is a decent crude indicator.

 

[gosub]

Maybe. Or maybe the Zoe Covid study is right. It estimates 6,336-8,426 new cases daily in England, fewer than half the number the Cambridge lot estimate. That's the problem with the models and estimates - few of them agree with one another; some disagree very widely as to both the size and direction of the epidemic right now, as here.

COVID Symptom Study

I don't know tbh which one to believe. The Zoe study does at least have the advantage of the 3.8 million data points of its ongoing survey.

well London R around 0.5 he cites I remember from the same Cambridge data a month ago. It's been rising everywhere, or rathar its now declining at a far slower rate than it was

 

[littlebabyjesus]

well London R around 0.5 he cites I remember from the same Cambridge data a month ago. It's been rising everywhere, or rathar its now declining at a far slower rate than it was

Yes, there was talk of the virus being gone in London by the end of May, which clearly hasn't happened. It's pretty close, though - new cases measured in tens now rather than hundreds - and that does appear to be the pattern everywhere across Europe, that the thing calms right down but does not disappear entirely.

 

[freakydave]

if you don't want to get into it, don't spout shit

I wasn't spouting shit

 

[quimcunx]

Maybe. Or maybe the Zoe Covid study is right. It estimates 6,336-8,426 new cases daily in England, fewer than half the number the Cambridge lot estimate (although its estimate is just of symptomatic cases, which may explain the difference). That's the problem with the models and estimates - few of them agree with one another; some disagree very widely as to both the size and direction of the epidemic right now, as here.

COVID Symptom Study

I don't know tbh which one to believe. The Zoe study does at least have the advantage of the 3.8 million data points of its ongoing survey. Number of people in hospital continues to fall in most places, which is a decent crude indicator.

You are out of date with your r rate. https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/ ,

The 0.5% I was referring to was the covid app's estimate of how many people are currently infected.

 

[treelover]

UK coronavirus victims have lain undetected at home for two weeks

Doctors say there have been dozens of cases and warn of ‘epidemic of loneliness’

www.theguardian.com

Knew this was going to be the case, very very sad.

 

[Mation]

This bullshit from the BBC:

Posted at 17:45
Hancock: Differences in death rates will be investigated
Matt Hancock is asked why people from ethnic minorities are "disproportionately" dying from Covid-19 and are more likely to be punished for breaking lockdown rules.

He responds that all factors, including comorbidity, housing and occupation, must be looked into. When conclusions are reached, the government will "absolutely" put measures in place, Hancock says.

Hancock only answered the first question (in the vague, non-answer way shown above), but didn't address the second question at all, as implied in the BBC post; he moved on the the next person.

The second question was specifically: "Why are black people disproportionately being fined under lockdown?"

And the first question was about BME people being disproportionately affected within the context of structural racism in the UK. I can see why Hancock would want to avoid that (although, obviously he shouldn't) , but the BBC could at least report the question.

 

[maomao]

I just find the protests really worrying. I'm sympathetic to the cause, but it's just a stupid idea to be in big groups. Social distancing and masks are useful for normal life, but in big crowds it's just not going to work.
The whole thing about this virus is that it is slow acting and even if you have it you won't know for a while and you can go around giving it to other people. I've been reading about it on here, and it seems like an unpopular opinion, but I think that it's stupid and selfish to go out to something like this because it's not about catching the virus so much as spreading it.
All of my friends on my facebook and insta are posting in support and I just can't get behind it when this virus is still such a problem.

Protesters are doing essential work. More than fucking coppers are anyway. And the filth don't even wear masks.

 

[andysays]

Protesters are doing essential work. More than fucking coppers are anyway. And the filth don't even wear masks.

And they're still going round in mini buses etc with no social distancing.

I'm amazed they haven't all gone down with the virus.

 

[maomao]

And they're still going round in mini buses etc with no social distancing.

I'm amazed they haven't all gone down with the virus.

Even viruses have standards.

 

[FridgeMagnet]

I saw that the White Cube galleries are re-opening from the 16th, though with booking required (you used to be able to just wander in). Of course going there requires you to be able to get to Bermondsey or Mason's Yard which kind of rules me out.

White Cube - COVID-19 FAQs

Please note the below changes across White Cube’s premises in accordance with the latest international COVID-19 guidelines. White Cube’s London galleries at Bermondsey and Mason’s Yard are closed to the public until further notice, in accordance with guidance from the UK government.

whitecube.com

 

[crossthebreeze]

New Scientist article about the utter shambles of the UK testing statistics.
Two weeks without totals for tests outside of care homes
UK Statistics Authority say data far from complete and comprehensible and well short of expectations.
Hospital and care-home data - no differentiation between staff and patients (so can't see if PPE has effect, for example).
Double counting and unprocessed postal tests included in data.
Statistics not sufficient to work out Infection fatality Rate.
Statistics not sufficient to map positive cases.
Evidence that tests are giving a proportion of false negatives.

 

[NoXion]

New Scientist article about the utter shambles of the UK testing statistics.
Two weeks without totals for tests outside of care homes
UK Statistics Authority say data far from complete and comprehensible and well short of expectations.
Hospital and care-home data - no differentiation between staff and patients (so can't see if PPE has effect, for example).
Double counting and unprocessed postal tests included in data.
Statistics not sufficient to work out Infection fatality Rate.
Statistics not sufficient to map positive cases.
Evidence that tests are giving a proportion of false negatives.

I think the link is broken. It's not working for me.

 

[Sunray]

Interview with Sunetra Gupta, the author of the dissenting Oxford paper that gave a different model from that of Imperial at the start of lockdown predicting that the virus had already spread far and wide.

I mentioned this view the other day, it was at the end of a Guardian article. Given the loosening and the gatherings happening in London, this position is starting to be backed up by basic observation. I read something about researchers testing people for immune responses to coronavirus fragments, I think it was as part of vaccine research and people who couldn't have been exposed to C-19 are showing antibodies. I'll see if I can dig that out. Researchers in Germany are suggesting there is a 'dark matter' out there with regard to this virus, can see its effect, don't know what it is.

The City has millions of people, not all being models of society re: social distancing. Parks have been as packed as ever. We should all be in full lock down again. But we're not.

Nobody died of C-19 in London yesterday.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) numbers in London

We're publishing information on the numbers involved in the coronavirus outbreak.

www.london.gov.uk

 

[maomao]

I saw that the White Cube galleries are re-opening from the 16th, though with booking required (you used to be able to just wander in). Of course going there requires you to be able to get to Bermondsey or Mason's Yard which kind of rules me out.

White Cube - COVID-19 FAQs

Please note the below changes across White Cube’s premises in accordance with the latest international COVID-19 guidelines. White Cube’s London galleries at Bermondsey and Mason’s Yard are closed to the public until further notice, in accordance with guidance from the UK government.

whitecube.com

The people who run those galleries are the biggest coke heads I've ever worked for.

 

[crossthebreeze]

I think the link is broken. It's not working for me.

I've fixed it.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Nobody died of C-19 in London yesterday.

As ever, the usual warning about weekend reporting applies. Most of the deaths occurring on any given day are not reported the day after, and this goes doubly for the weekend.

The German 'dark matter' comment in fact came from a British scientist - another dissenting modeller - Karl Friston.

 

[8115]

I mentioned this view the other day, it was at the end of a Guardian article. Given the loosening and the gatherings happening in London, this position is starting to be backed up by basic observation. I read something about researchers testing people for immune responses to coronavirus fragments, I think it was as part of vaccine research and people who couldn't have been exposed to C-19 are showing antibodies. I'll see if I can dig that out. Researchers in Germany are suggesting there is a 'dark matter' out there with regard to this virus, can see its effect, don't know what it is.

The City has millions of people, not all being models of society re: social distancing. Parks have been as packed as ever. We should all be in full lock down again. But we're not.

Nobody died of C-19 in London yesterday.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) numbers in London

We're publishing information on the numbers involved in the coronavirus outbreak.

www.london.gov.uk

It's been a week since lockdown was officially loosened, a week and a half since Boris Johnson announced the loosening which seemed to immediately mean people were out and about a lot more. I think there could be a longer lag than this for the virus to start spreading more rapidly again, it seems very likely to me.

 

[Orang Utan]

How do people feel about the pubs reopening on the 22nd? I doubt I'll be rushing back

 

[frogwoman]

Unfortunately Iran and parts of the US are experiencing a second spike, I'd be cautious tbh

 

[Sunray]

It's been a week since lockdown was officially loosened, a week and a half since Boris Johnson announced the loosening which seemed to immediately mean people were out and about a lot more. I think there could be a longer lag than this for the virus to start spreading more rapidly again, it seems very likely to me.

This isn't borne out by reality. Consider the start, London went from nothing to crazy in 3 weeks, seriously challenging the NHS ability to respond.

They loosened it some weeks ago and the parks have been packed, block parties and illegal raves etc. Its 5 days incubation on average, it's up to a couple of weeks but they are outliers, as we're talking the general case 14 days is plenty to start seeing something happen.

Whats happened is nothing. Which is quite weird and there is some effort going on to understand why.

 

[Sunray]

How do people feel about the pubs reopening on the 22nd? I doubt I'll be rushing back

Looking forward to a pint with friends.

 

[IC3D]

Possibly those that are at risk are still largely isolating and people gathering are young and not currently mixing with older people on public transport work etc.

 

[Raheem]

Think it's a mistake to think a lag can be predicted just based on what the incubation period might be. It will also take time for the infection rate to build.

 

[Doodler]

How do people feel about the pubs reopening on the 22nd? I doubt I'll be rushing back

Will avoid, people will be disinhibited with a few drinks in them and I don't want to get infected if I can help it. Also, near skint.

 

[Orang Utan]

Will avoid, people will be disinhibited with a few drinks in them and I don't want to get infected if I can help it.

aye, that's how i feel. even if the pub had a massive garden, I don't think I could trust others (even myself) after a few

 

[SpookyFrank]

How do people feel about the pubs reopening on the 22nd? I doubt I'll be rushing back

Too many tourists round here, it's not even remotely worth it.

R rate is still high here as well.