Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[ska invita]

I’ve been wondering about this too, definitely agree it wasn’t an accident that the press were given the story that we’d all be ‘liberated’ on Monday but I don’t know if it’s really herd immunity by stealth think it might just be them testing the waters to see what way the wind is blowing & then after the backlash of wtf are you doing they decided to stick with things as they are for a bit longer. The pm after all is the man who wrote those 2 articles one against one for brexit then picked which to publish at the last minute when he judged which would be the winning or most expedient side.

i put "herd immunity" in speech marks, by which i meant, its not exactly contact and trace is it? Its push the capacity of who might get it to a "manageable" point. Its definitely not "lets stop people from catching it as a priority".

 

[editor]

I was thinking about this recently - it must REALLY suck for teenagers right now.

A study of 60,000 people in lockdown by University College London found that the youngest in the sample, 18- to 24-year-olds, had the lowest levels of life satisfaction, while the highest was recorded in the over-60s.

“To some degree, this [the lockdown] is not a different experience for teenagers – but teenagers are more vulnerable,” says Dr Maria Loades, a senior lecturer and clinical psychologist at the University of Bath who studies the effect of social isolation and loneliness in young people.

It is easy to see why that may be the case. Exams young people have been told will shape the rest of their lives have been cancelled, future plans – for work, travel or further study – cast into uncertainty. Incipient independence has been rudely interrupted.

Physical distancing goes against adolescent impulse, says Loades: to assert themselves as individuals, away from their parents; to spend time with their friends, to take risks, to act without thinking of consequences.

'I'm losing my teenage years': young contend with life in lockdown

Teenagers affirm evidence that suggests they are particularly struggling with coronavirus crisis

www.theguardian.com

 

[elbows]

The importance of prolonged and multiple contact for transmission. I’d be interested in the views of elbows and others on whether this sounds as if it’s on the right track.

EU Referendum

eureferendum.com

.
The article refers to this twitter thread:

I had already seen the Dr Muge Cevik thread, and a recent previous article from that eureferendum site that was focussing on things like hospital transmission.

A lot of it is reasonable stuff that was already understood or assumed to be the case, hence various stories recently about the lower risks of various things if they are outdoors. Usually someone manages to take this stuff and run with it in a direction I dont like so much, such as focussing on the implications that various things are safe or not worth bothering about, instead of focussing on the riskier stuff without completely diminishing the other stuff. The role of asymptomatic spread still seems to be a problem for some people too, they always want to consign it to some negligible role, even though some studies in this pandemic suggest it had an important role. But its not like I have conducted a systematic review of the evidence on that one, I expect I have my own bias, and I'm very cautious about deeming things safe at the moment, even when some of the other, far greater risks should be relatively obvious and undeniable.

I hate pretty much everything about the UK response in terms of the management of cases. Its understandable that an emphasis was placed on vastly reducing transmission between households, but the way its been done at the expense of transmission within households, at the expense of everyone getting the best medical case, hell even at the expense of being able to produce daily statistics for numbers of recovered cases (stats which we do see from plenty of other counties) , it makes me angry. I made a cynical remark ages ago about 'protect the NHS, die at home' and several aspects of that have yet to be properly dwelt on by the media.

 

[Doctor Carrot]

Re: Lockdown breaking

I think theres a clear pattern from government here, of deliberatley saying one thing, then enacting the opposite. Its a ramping up of the Tories so called nudge unit, and its based on Johnsons personally philosophy: "Have Your Cake And Eat It". That was his position in relation to Brexit, its how he treats women, how he sees the world, and its how he treats this crisis.

A brief history of having cake and eating it

How an old expression became one of the key phrases of Brexit.

www.politico.eu

They know they cant be seen to ease lockdown at this moment, but like all governments wanting to keep capitalism on track they want lockdown eased as soon as possible. So what do they do? The feed the press the story lockdown will be eased on Monday:
View attachment 211623

That didnt happen by accident, it happened by designed.

Then literally the next day they say "Lockdown mustn't be eased, carry on locking down".
People get the message loud and clear, lockdown is easing and act accordingly.
Tories wipe their hands and say,"we've been saying it must carry on, its not our fault", then don't put any pressure to reprimand people for not following it as strictly.
Its manipulation, and its cake and eat it: they achieve both positions:decreasing lockdown and increasing "herd immunity strategy", whilst being able to hold their hands up and say we are maintaining lockdown.

A similar two faced approach summarises their position in the early months of this. People knew they should lockdown and did so of their own accord, while the government could keep it business as usual as long as possible.

Exactly right, I can't stand the fact we've essentially been gaslit by this government and have been very clearly since Brexit, and of course before it. I hate the fact that I'm knowingly playing into their hands by getting frustrated with people in the way I have been. We're all going through a crisis and we all deal with it in our own way. Having people in charge who are more concerned with their own political project than the welfare of the population makes things harder than they are already.

This is the tory party though with a chorus of support from the scummiest right wing press in Europe and they all sing from the same hymn sheet. Why should I excpect anything different from them? For a brief moment, I did actually think the politics of it would be put to one side while we got through this but how naive of me eh?

 

[gosub]

UK plans £250m boost for cycle lanes and fast-track e-scooter trials

Campaigners call for redesign of transport system to help prevent bounce-back in air pollution

www.theguardian.com

FFS! Thermal imaging no, PPE no, testing eventually, Cycle lanes oh that will sort it

 

[elbows]

UK plans £250m boost for cycle lanes and fast-track e-scooter trials

Campaigners call for redesign of transport system to help prevent bounce-back in air pollution

www.theguardian.com

FFS! Thermal imaging no, PPE no, testing eventually, Cycle lanes oh that will sort it

Its a great and really important thing, reclaim the streets 2020 pandemic edition is part of the solution. Of course it should not distract from other things that have been handled terribly, but nor should those things be allowed to diminish the importance of changes that need to happen to street layouts, transport, other issues of public health.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Lockdown on the Sussex coast became an issue yesterday, mainly from outsiders, many from London, deciding to come down to the likes of Brighton & Worthing.

This was Worthing beach yesterday, nowhere near as busy as a normal sunny day, but certainly the worst since the start of lockdown, and at Easter...



So, today the police have set-up road checks, the one below is on the A27 into Brighton, apparently there's also one on the A24 into Worthing...



Anyone from 'the north' are being issued fines, and being turned around.



We are a low risk/case area, despite being a urban area, unlike to the north of the national park, so we don't want visitors from 'the north' coming here and spreading the plague, thanks very much.

 

[elbows]

This is the tory party though with a chorus of support from the scummiest right wing press in Europe and they all sing from the same hymn sheet. Why should I excpect anything different from them? For a brief moment, I did actually think the politics of it would be put to one side while we got through this but how naive of me eh?

It was never going to stop the usual suspects from doing their usual shit. It might stop such things being as effective though. They cannot stop an era ending if the underlying fundamentals have really changed.

If this pandemic did turn out to be neoliberalisms last gasp, for example, then I would expect a very large amount of noise and desperate tactics from those wedded to seeing neoliberalism continue. It doesnt mean their efforts will actually succeed.

 

[editor]

 

[elbows]

Its a great and really important thing, reclaim the streets 2020 pandemic edition is part of the solution. Of course it should not distract from other things that have been handled terribly, but nor should those things be allowed to diminish the importance of changes that need to happen to street layouts, transport, other issues of public health.

Also:

Coronavirus: Challenge of reshaping UK cities after lockdown

Replacing cars with bikes or walking will cut infection and address climate change, say campaigners.

www.bbc.co.uk

In London, a group of women calling themselves the Tactical Urbanistas took matters into their own hands. Last week they widened the pavement outside a busy high street supermarket, using painted circles on the road surface and makeshift barriers of tyres filled with soil and flowers.

Residents in Tower Hamlets welcomed the change and the barriers were applauded on social media, the group say. However, the local council objectedand removed the tyres, citing safety reasons.

"London's streets are not safe for social distancing and a disproportionate amount of space is given to cars at the expense of other road users. This is a public health risk and needs to be treated urgently," Tactical Urbanistas told BBC News.

Transition catalyst. With a threat of even more cars if the opportunity is squandered.

There are signs people will turn to their cars in greater numbers than pre-lockdown: 56% of drivers currently without a car plan to buy one post-lockdown, according to car sales company AutoTrader.

In Wuhan, China, private car usage nearly doubled when lockdown ended, rising from 34% before the outbreak to 66% after lockdown.

"There is an avalanche of private car usage coming if we don't do something about it," says Leo Murray from climate action charity Possible, which campaigns for green transport.

 

[gosub]

Its a great and really important thing, reclaim the streets 2020 pandemic edition is part of the solution. Of course it should not distract from other things that have been handled terribly, but nor should those things be allowed to diminish the importance of changes that need to happen to street layouts, transport, other issues of public health.

Its fucking B-ARK what colour should the wheel be

 

[elbows]

Its fucking B-ARK what colour should the wheel be

No it isnt, sorry you havent got the message about what this century is actually all about.

 

[elbows]

The overlap is just so immense. Conditions, crowding, pollution, transport, work, economy, equality, consumption, food. No end of opportunities to learn the right lessons and make the right changes, no end of opportunities to ignore that stuff and stubbornly try to carry on with more of the old way of doing things, despite its blatant unsustainability.

I've very little time for people who can balk at the amount of death due to this pandemic, but can still dismiss these other things that cause routine death in big ways as if they are irrelevant and should not be of primary concern. Learn the lessons of death and apply them to quality of life. Save more people than this pandemic kills. Do not allow the new normal to involve the old poisons.

 

[PD58]

So garden centres are going to open - now who is that for, errr, in the main middle/old aged, middle class, white folk with gardens (who can be outside anyway no problem), most of who vote Tory...are we surprised, are we fuck. OK this might stereotype but you get the idea.

 

[magneze]

They're also mostly used by high risk groups.

 

[wayward bob]

So garden centres are going to open - now who is that for, errr, in the main middle/old aged, middle class, white folk with gardens (who can be outside anyway no problem), most of who vote Tory...are we surprised, are we fuck. OK this might stereotype but you get the idea.

lots of people who have outdoor space but have never "gardened" are picking up on the chance to green their surroundings atm. we're mostly yards (tiny out front, less tiny out back) but there's mature fruit trees and people who feed the birds and a shed that has enough of a dip in the roof to have a permanent bathing puddle for them - it's as good as being in the country

i think it is too much of a stereotype tbh.

(eta: middle aged, middle class white person reporting )

 

[souljacker]

This 14 day quarantine for incoming flights is bonkers. From what I can see, you need to tell them where you are staying and promise to stay there for 14 days. Then you, presumably, hop on the tube or bus and then go and do what you want. We should be actively discouraging people from flying here. There are loads of empty hotels around the airports. Put them in one for 14 days and tell them they can't come out. We'll put 3 meals a day outside your door and you have to stay put.

 

[Sue]

This 14 day quarantine for incoming flights is bonkers. From what I can see, you need to tell them where you are staying and promise to stay there for 14 days. Then you, presumably, hop on the tube or bus and then go and do what you want. We should be actively discouraging people from flying here. There are loads of empty hotels around the airports. Put them in one for 14 days and tell them they can't come out. We'll put 3 meals a day outside your door and you have to stay put.

...and apparently not coming in till the end of the month...

 

[PD58]

lots of people who have outdoor space but have never "gardened" are picking up on the chance to green their surroundings atm. we're mostly yards (tiny out front, less tiny out back) but there's mature fruit trees and people who feed the birds and a shed that has enough of a dip in the roof to have a permanent bathing puddle for them - it's as good as being in the country

i think it is too much of a stereotype tbh.

(eta: middle aged, middle class white person reporting )

As am I, and I do think it is stereotypical and, according to the press, more people are taking up gardening and given my own issues of trying to get veg seed this year this is no doubt true, but it is interesting that this one change has been leaked as it is of little help to those who are suffering most from lockdown i.e. urbanites with little or no garden space and certainly no spare cash for gardening... aren't most garden centers out of town...the cynic in me says it is to appease the shire Tories.

 

[elbows]

This 14 day quarantine for incoming flights is bonkers. From what I can see, you need to tell them where you are staying and promise to stay there for 14 days. Then you, presumably, hop on the tube or bus and then go and do what you want. We should be actively discouraging people from flying here. There are loads of empty hotels around the airports. Put them in one for 14 days and tell them they can't come out. We'll put 3 meals a day outside your door and you have to stay put.

I suppose I'm looking at it from the point of view that absurdity is to be found in most UK responses, and that I should judge this one on the relative absurdity scale. ie Its not as absurd as doing nothing at all, the previous policy. And whilst laughably weak on its own, it might be enough given all the other factors in play at the same time - the vastly reduced amount of international travel there is at the moment, the number of people who will continue to avoid such things, the number of people who will either be put off from travelling here by this quarantine policy or will actually voluntarily comply with the self-quarantine.

It might still prove to be far too weak and require something stronger, so I am not declaring my love for this policy, I'm just trying to put it into the current and medium term context. Its still quite a big step for a country like this that tried to make an ideological & economic big deal out of its resistance to even considering the most basic of measures on this front in the past.

 

[wayward bob]

when the alternative is buying compost in teeny bags from woollies and schlepping it home in a pushchair i'll admit i'm more than partial to an offer of a lift/"day out" to the garden centre

 

[editor]

The responses are all you might expect and more. This one is good, mind

 

[elbows]

...and apparently not coming in till the end of the month...

Again there will be inevitable absurdities in some of what I'm about to say but anyway.....

This stuff is on the list of things that would have made great sense to do properly before we had a raging epidemic, but once those opportunities were deliberately squandered by policy decisions, traditional attitudes and capacity issues, it was always going to take quite a while before we got back to a position where actually doing these things properly would make a notable difference to remaining levels of infection. Because the number of imported infections would seem like a drop in the bucket compared to ongoing spread within the population that would still have been sustained even if the borders had completely closed at that point.

As we move beyond that phase of raging community epidemic, a lot of these areas of failure will start to stick out like a sore thumb if they arent tackled by that point. So in some ways its similar to issues like infections continuing to spread in hospitals and care homes even when the picture in the wider community has improved. They've always been issues, but when we reach a stage where they are undeniably the main remaining drivers of infection, doing nothing is no longer an option.

 

[LDC]

This 14 day quarantine for incoming flights is bonkers. From what I can see, you need to tell them where you are staying and promise to stay there for 14 days. Then you, presumably, hop on the tube or bus and then go and do what you want. We should be actively discouraging people from flying here. There are loads of empty hotels around the airports. Put them in one for 14 days and tell them they can't come out. We'll put 3 meals a day outside your door and you have to stay put.

Surely some kind of a tag at home would be possible to sort out? Be a good discouragement to travel here unless absolutely essential at the very least!

 

[sheothebudworths]

This 14 day quarantine for incoming flights is bonkers. From what I can see, you need to tell them where you are staying and promise to stay there for 14 days. Then you, presumably, hop on the tube or bus and then go and do what you want. We should be actively discouraging people from flying here. There are loads of empty hotels around the airports. Put them in one for 14 days and tell them they can't come out. We'll put 3 meals a day outside your door and you have to stay put.

Iirc, that's exactly what Yu_Gi_Oh had to do on her return to China.

It's also what they briefyly pretended to do early on here, too - allocated hotels nearby airports, but with no insistence whatsoever that people do it (weren't people mostly not even made aware of the option?), so everyone just traipsed off home and the hotel rooms were left empty.

It's more stuff that's just said for effect, with no actual commitment to even begin to ensure it works, isn't it? No meaningful action, £££'s over lives - business as usual, more or less.
I'm expecting the magic app to turn out to be the same in the end (they've now handed out a whole new contract to see if we WOULD be best going with the alternative one after all, too, haven't they?) - that there won't be much at all put into actual contact tracing alongside it, despite all the scientific advisors constantly saying atm that it'll work very much alongside that.

 

[Supine]

From the press conference just now - trains will only be able to have 1/10th if it’s previous capacity. People being urged to reduce travel wherever possible.

Also apps being developed to show estimated and live crowding levels on the transport system.

 

[elbows]

By the way, in 2009 when the new swine flu influenza was discovered, the UK did have a period early on when they bothered to send official to airports to meet planes that came from Mexico. But this was not done as a serious attempt to contain the flu virus, the main reason they did it was to offer the public some reassurance. ie to be seen to be doing something.

Here are a few quotes from the review in to the UK's 2009 pandemic response:

The containment phase of the response lasted for longer and consumed more resources than had been anticipated by those responsible for its implementation. There is an opportunity cost in carrying out tasks, such as meeting direct flights from Mexico, using skilled staff who then cannot be doing other work of more benefit in tackling the outbreak.

initially meeting all direct flights from Mexico in order to ease public concerns, and maintaining a presence in airports during the hours that flights were arriving;

I'm not sure how much justice I'm doing to that subject by not going on about the broader context again. So a quick repeat of one of my central themes: Much in common between initial plan A with this coronavirus pandemic and the first phases of the 2009 pandemic response. Contain wasnt really contain, it was delay and learn. Which leads to this sort of stuff in the 2009 review:

What I would describe as the primary reason why they even bothered testing, contact tracing and hospitalising so many people in the first phase:

The following additional surveillance mechanisms were used during the early stages of the response.
The First Few Hundred (FF100) project enhanced the surveillance of cases and close contacts. Epidemiological analysis of information was used to determine the virological and clinical characteristics of the virus, as well as its potential spread and impact, and to provide information on susceptible groups and risk factors. All of this contributed to vaccine deployment decisions.
Hospital surveillance of confirmed cases was used to identify and quantify risk factors for severe disease and to assist the detection of emerging changes in the epidemiology of the virus.
During the containment phase, surveillance information was based on collection and analysis of data from confirmed cases of H1N1 gathered through laboratory testing and contact tracing. The focus was on characterising the clinical, epidemiological and virological features of the new disease.

The UK maintained its initial approach to containment until 19 May 2009, at which point ministers agreed to end the practice of meeting all direct flights from Mexico. A further change was agreed by ministers on 10 June on the basis of evidence from the HPA that the measures were becoming increasingly resource-intensive and of diminishing value as the virus spread more widely. These changes involved:

the use of clinical diagnosis (instead of laboratory testing) where there was a high probability that cases were positive;

Anyway all that sort of stuff is just evidence for why things relating to travel, borders etc were not a serious part of our initial response. But I cant use these past attitudes and failed plans to give me clues about the future. People are quite right to complain if measures finally being taken still seem weak, I'm not defending the weakness, but I am still gawping at the spectacle of the establishment actually having been forced into u-turns on all these fronts eventually. Some final quotes from the 2009 review to underline my point:

International travel, border restrictions and screening

These aspects of pre-pandemic planning were informed both by the available scientific evidence on the efficacy of such measures and by the practical implications for economic, commercial and social activity of restricting international travel. Scientific evidence indicates that no practical level of travel restriction would prevent the arrival of a pandemic in the UK altogether, and that highly disruptive screening and restriction measures would only serve to delay a pandemic’s arrival by a matter of weeks, even if they were over 90% effective.

Weighing the ‘possible health benefits that may accrue from international travel restrictions or border closures’ against the ‘practicality, proportionality and potential effectiveness of imposing them,’ the National Framework concludes that ‘the Government will keep under review the evidence on the benefits and disadvantages of various approaches’.

The National Framework does, however, recommend the strengthening of port health vigilance and capacity to ensure that the UK is able to implement any such measures that might be issued by the World Health Organization (WHO), the European Union or other governments.

Oh just one more, as further evidence of why I found the early 2020 response (till ~March 16th 2020) rather predictable based on my knowledge of the 2009 response:

Recognising that there was little scientific evidence to support the widespread cancellation of large public gatherings as a measure to combat the spread of influenza, the planning assumption set out in the National Framework is that ‘the Government is unlikely to recommend a blanket ban on public gatherings. However, informed judgements by the event organiser and/or governing body in conjunction with the regulatory authority may become necessary at the time. If international events are due to be held in the UK with participants from affected areas, the Government may recommend postponement.’

So yeah, compared to the slow and constrained pace of attitude, policy & priority evolution for decades of my life, even the proposal of various weak things recently seems like a hyperspeed ultranew megasane transport spaceship between the planets u-turn and new turn by comparison.

All quotes are from https://assets.publishing.service.g...ile/61252/the2009influenzapandemic-review.pdf

 

[Glitter]

The responses are all you might expect and more. This one is good, mind

Pretty certain I’m related to four people on that clip.

 

[keybored]

A handy timeline of staggering hubris and arrogance.

A timeline of failure.

Through arrogance and incompetence, thousands have needlessly died.

appeasement.org

I've noticed a coping mechanism emerging where the odd colleague or acquaintance will guiltily mutter something like "Yeah but I don't think a Labour government would have done anything any better".

 

[keybored]

woollies

I have some bad news...