Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[The39thStep]

The hospitalization is on its way down, though more sharply in London. I agree about the new cases though. With testing ramped up to these levels Germany found this kind of level of new cases around 3 to 4 weeks ago. My biggest worry is the evident failure to stop spread in hospitals. How long people are outside or if they're having picnics is as good as irrelevant compared to that, yet this will be the focus rather than the ongoing infection protocol failures.

Health officials were on Portuguese news this afternoon explaining that the rise in new cases in Lisbon and some other place may well be down to the increase in targeted testing . Portugal has carried out 459 thousand diagnostic tests a testing rate of 44,000 tests per million inhabitants

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Health officials were on Portuguese news this afternoon explaining that the rise in new cases in Lisbon and some other place may well be down to the increase in targeted testing . Portugal has carried out 459 thousand diagnostic tests a testing rate of 44,000 tests per million inhabitants

Sure and hopefully that is the case here as well. The point of my comparison to Germany is precisely because they've been through this process - lots of targeted testing was at one point revealing 6,000 new cases a day quite a while after lockdown. Thing is, they've now got it down to 1,000 a day. We're probably some weeks away from that.

 

[quimcunx]

Is this right, does anyone know?



If this is correct why do we look so different? Apart from because of the initial delay? Because we never had a strict lockdown? Because workplaces remained open or reopened quite quickly? Because of all those terrible people who cycled 40 miles or drove to a hill for a walk or sat down on a patch of grass?

 

[quimcunx]

Also I would quite like to see what sort of rates of covid there is in the police and what if any social distancing rules they've had.

 

[Teaboy]

Is this right, does anyone know?

View attachment 211295

If this is correct why do we look so different? Apart from because of the initial delay? Because we never had a strict lockdown? Because workplaces remained open or reopened quite quickly? Because of all those terrible people who cycled 40 miles or drove to a hill for a walk or sat down on a patch of grass?

Well, our peak was later than the others so will go down later. Also the testing has been ramped upped massively and the more you test the more positives you'll find. Also because the situation has gone to shit here.

 

[Teaboy]

Also I would quite like to see what sort of rates of covid there is in the police and what if any social distancing rules they've had.

Can I ask why?

 

[quimcunx]

Can I ask why?

Because it seems like it should be more feasible to get those numbers. Because they have been working throughout but not in hospitals or care homes.

 

[kabbes]

Is this right, does anyone know?

View attachment 211295

If this is correct why do we look so different? Apart from because of the initial delay? Because we never had a strict lockdown? Because workplaces remained open or reopened quite quickly? Because of all those terrible people who cycled 40 miles or drove to a hill for a walk or sat down on a patch of grass?

Our upward curve would have been multiple times as steep if we’d have had the same testing regimes as those other countries. Imagine something even steeper than Spain’s. And then our numbers now would be on a downswing.

 

[Teaboy]

Because it seems like it should be more feasible to get those numbers. Because they have been working throughout but not in hospitals or care homes.

Ah right. So for comparison against other frontline workers.

 

[treelover]

my house neigbour has just told me that his team of cleaners in a supermkt, inc him are no longer using any kind of PPE, fatalistic, low wage, poor conditions, etc, i am pretty worried, we share the same front door, stairs, rails, etc its a HMO, and afaik, he doesn't clean when he leaves/aerrives, using wipes, etc, I am also concerned the guy downstairs is not wiping down the handle, etc and he is a Dr working below a Covid ward. Don't want to fall out with them, but have to do something, its urgent.

 

[Teaboy]

my house neigbour has just told me that his team of cleaners in a supermkt, inc him are no longer using any kind of PPE, fatalistic, low wage, poor conditions, etc, i am pretty worried, we share the same front door, stairs, rails, etc its a HMO, and afaik, he doesn't clean when he leaves/aerrives, using wipes, etc, I am also concerned the guy downstairs is not wiping down the handle, etc and he is a Dr working below a Covid ward. Don't want to fall out with them, but have to do someting, its urgent.

That sounds pretty stressful. Are there steps you can take to protect yourself by having several pairs of gloves you use?

I also live in block of flats with communal entrance / stairs. Its not just the residents its all the delivery drivers etc. Its an area that really can't be kept clean so probably have to do the best you can to protect yourself.

 

[PD58]

Just looked at check your county on the BBC and in mine we were at 211 cases for a few weeks and in the past 10 days or so have increased to 329 with 35 deaths - so we are not plateauing (pop is 192,000) but hey we will be out on Monday...

 

[Supine]

I strongly suspect the main reason the police are so keen to patrol beauty spots is it means they're getting paid to hang around the lake district all day instead of doing actual work.

tbf they also live here!

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Is this right, does anyone know?

View attachment 211295

If this is correct why do we look so different? Apart from because of the initial delay? Because we never had a strict lockdown? Because workplaces remained open or reopened quite quickly? Because of all those terrible people who cycled 40 miles or drove to a hill for a walk or sat down on a patch of grass?

Looks right, yep.

Cos of the delay in ramping up testing. But also cos of the emerging crisis of infection in hospitals. Last week, it was reported that half of new cases were known to be hospital-related. Of course, that's partly because hospital workers are finally being tested, but it also means hospital-related infection rates in the UK are at a very much higher level than in other countries right now. It is rather urgent to find out why and fix it. The testing will help in that, of course - far easier to fix a problem when you know what it actually is.

 

[kalidarkone]

my house neigbour has just told me that his team of cleaners in a supermkt, inc him are no longer using any kind of PPE, fatalistic, low wage, poor conditions, etc, i am pretty worried, we share the same front door, stairs, rails, etc its a HMO, and afaik, he doesn't clean when he leaves/aerrives, using wipes, etc, I am also concerned the guy downstairs is not wiping down the handle, etc and he is a Dr working below a Covid ward. Don't want to fall out with them, but have to do something, its urgent.

So what you could do is make sure that when you leave your flat you wipe all the door handles and banisters as you leave then throw the wipe away and gel hands and then the same everytime you go back home. That's what I would do.

 

[teuchter]

Is this right, does anyone know?

View attachment 211295

If this is correct why do we look so different? Apart from because of the initial delay? Because we never had a strict lockdown? Because workplaces remained open or reopened quite quickly? Because of all those terrible people who cycled 40 miles or drove to a hill for a walk or sat down on a patch of grass?

Here's similar data according the graphs I look at. I think the rolling averages are good for some things but can sometimes produce odd effects with erratic data. If you look at my top one, you'd say there's not a clear trend where we are suddenly doing worse.

 

[teuchter]

I prefer to look at deaths, as it seems more reliable, and less affected by changes in testing regimes.
The jump in the UK line is, I think, caused by the sudden addition of care home data. The general gradient of the line remains very similar to those seen in France, Spain and Italy.

 

[bimble]

What has caused their most trusty newspapers this morning to be apparently so out of step with what the government now says they plan to announce on Sunday? I am confused by it. The papers must have got it from somewhere. Seems a possibility that they changed their minds when they observed the general reaction? We have a pm who above all wants to be liked I think.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I prefer to look at deaths, as it seems more reliable, and less affected by changes in testing regimes.
The jump in the UK line is, I think, caused by the sudden addition of care home data. The general gradient of the line remains very similar to those seen in France, Spain and Italy.

View attachment 211329

(((Belgium)))

That is the better measure, with the usual caveats - Italy still just hospital deaths, Belgium off the scale but probably with the most realistic measure of deaths, including all confirmed and probable.

 

[xenon]

my house neigbour has just told me that his team of cleaners in a supermkt, inc him are no longer using any kind of PPE, fatalistic, low wage, poor conditions, etc, i am pretty worried, we share the same front door, stairs, rails, etc its a HMO, and afaik, he doesn't clean when he leaves/aerrives, using wipes, etc, I am also concerned the guy downstairs is not wiping down the handle, etc and he is a Dr working below a Covid ward. Don't want to fall out with them, but have to do something, its urgent.

The main thing you can do for yourself is be assiduous about washing your hands when coming in and out. I sometimes clean the communal handles, mailboxes and stuff because I'm on the ground floor and they're near by. But moreso, I always wash my hands as soon as I come back in , before taking off jacket and outdoor shoes. Then wash them again.

 

[teuchter]

(((Belgium)))

That is the better measure, with the usual caveats - Italy still just hospital deaths, Belgium off the scale but probably with the most realistic measure of deaths, including all confirmed and probable.

Yeah, here it is with the scale altered to see belgium properly.

I wish this graph would let me see London individualy though - I expect it might look like the belgian line.

(Oh, and look at Sweden. These graphs are often presented with a log scale, which distorts things and makes a bunch of countries look more similar than they are. Actually sweden is doing quite a lot better than us at present.)

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I haven't looked for a while, but London on its own was getting nearer to 1,000 deaths per million last week. It won't be far off now, and will be above Belgium there. New York State on its own is the worst-hit Belgium-sized chunk of the world. Currently 1,344 per million.

 

[elbows]

What has caused their most trusty newspapers this morning to be apparently so out of step with what the government now says they plan to announce on Sunday? I am confused by it. The papers must have got it from somewhere. Seems a possibility that they changed their minds when they observed the general reaction? We have a pm who above all wants to be liked I think.

It could be anti-lockdown factions within the press and government trying to bounce the government into doing certain things. Or Johnson & co playing a game where they want to bolster their 'sticking to the lockdown' credentials by having a plan floated that they have no intention of following, so they can then come out with something else that makes them look tougher by comparison.

I dont know, all I really know is that I am mostly ignoring all of it, I wont let it wind me up, I will just wait and see what is actually announced.

 

[editor]

View attachment 211227
ffs.

People have responded to this dangerous, reckless misinformation in the manner you might expect, and around me the parks are full of drinkers and the roads are pretty much as busy as they were before.

 

[zahir]

Leaked report on Exercise Cygnus

What was Exercise Cygnus and what did it find?

The 2016 simulation of a pandemic found holes in the UK’s readiness for such a crisis

www.theguardian.com

Revealed: the secret report that gave ministers warning of care home coronavirus crisis

Care providers say government did not discuss key Exercise Cygnus concerns with them

www.theguardian.com

 

[SpookyFrank]

Is this right, does anyone know?

View attachment 211295

If this is correct why do we look so different? Apart from because of the initial delay? Because we never had a strict lockdown? Because workplaces remained open or reopened quite quickly? Because of all those terrible people who cycled 40 miles or drove to a hill for a walk or sat down on a patch of grass?

Several reasons I suspect. One would be testing has been steadily but slowly increasing. Another is the fuzziness of our lockdown, and the high number of non-essential businesses staying open. Another is the hospital and care home infection routes which lockdown don't help with and on which little action seems to have been taken besides buying four billion quid's worth of PPE that doesn't work.

It's not good though, and there's no way the scaling up of testing accounts for all of it.

 

[crossthebreeze]

People have responded to this dangerous, reckless misinformation in the manner you might expect, and around me the parks are full of drinkers and the roads are pretty much as busy as they were before.

Yeah I work out and about my local area on Monday and Thursdays walking all over the place and most of today just saw people absolutely taking the piss in ways I haven't seen before (admittedly it was the warmest day of the year so far too) - big groups of obviously several households sitting outside drinking without even the pretence of social distancing, men outside the corner shop shaking hands and high fiving, loads of kids playing in the back lanes, - until the police did the rounds at about 2pm after which it went quiet for a bit.

 

[Orang Utan]

i'm terrified about this lockdown easing. it was never a fucking lockdown in the first place and they want to ease restrictions even further. It's so irresponsible and callous

 

[Orang Utan]

Yeah I work out and about my local area on Monday and Thursdays walking all over the place and most of today just saw people absolutely taking the piss in ways I haven't seen before (admittedly it was the warmest day of the year so far too) - big groups of obviously several households sitting outside drinking without even the pretence of social distancing, men outside the corner shop shaking hands and high fiving, loads of kids playing in the back lanes, - until the police did the rounds at about 2pm after which it went quiet for a bit.

I saw some street drinkers near my work sharing a can of commotion lotion and then when they parted, they cautiously bumped elbows. Clearly hard of thinking chaps.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Ah right. So for comparison against other frontline workers.

Police are neither frontline nor workers.