Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[Doodler]

Here in 'Britain's most unequal city' pretty much all the homeless people have disappeared from the streets and green spaces. Round about now you would start to see tents and other shelters hidden away among bushes but I've only spotted two and they look long established.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Here in 'Britain's most unequal city' pretty much all the homeless people have disappeared from the streets and green spaces. Round about now you would start to see tents and other shelters hidden away among bushes but I've only spotted two and they look long established. Nearly all the beggars have gone as well.

Hopefully they have been found accommodation, certainly our council, working with our excellent local homeless charity, has found places for all known rough sleepers, some are being housed in one of our largest hotels.

 

[gentlegreen]

In his latest updates he has been talking a lot about Ace inhibitors, ARBs, oxidative stress and the role of Endothelial cells. I've done a little reading about it and still getting my head around the mechanism involved but it appears that although ACE inhibitors increase the amount of ACE 2 available it does not seem to be increasing the chance of developing Covid-19. Sars-cov 2 does bind to ACE 2 but there are other factors in play. A lot of deaths are due to cardiovascular rather than respiratory issues and it is through their role in this cardiovascular mechanism that ACE inhibitors are making a difference. The virus binds to ACE 2 reducing the amount available to bond to angiotensin 2 receptors. Angiotensin 2 is a vasoconstrictor and if it is able to bond to its receptor can increase blood pressure. This along with damage to the endothelium can increase the likelihood of thrombosis. Angiotensin 2 also increases oxidative stress through its interaction with enzymes that play a role in producing reactive oxygen species that damage the endothelium and release coagulation factors. This is all affected by preexisting conditions. Ace inhibitors help to prevent this. By reducing the amount of ACE available to convert the less potent vasoconstrictor angiotensin 1 into the more potent angiotensin 2 it keeps blood pressure lower and stops the reactive oxygen species from damaging the endothelium. ARBs block angiotensin 2 receptors and ACE2 is able to convert more angiotensin 2 into Angiotensin 1 7 helping to lower blood pressure. This mechanism of the virus and its associated risk factors appears to be quite important in hospital admissions and there is some evidence that cardiovascular conditions such as hypertension are playing more of a role in admissions than respiratory conditions such as asthma.

So apparently there are ACE 2 receptors in the gut too ...
Anecdotal report by NY doctor that colleague thought she had shingles ...
Also this woman has naturally low body temperature and feels certain she got a whacking great viral load from a patient along with the colleague who is still knackered after 2 weeks, but she had modest symptoms and two antibody tests came up negative - so wonders about natural immunity ... I think she said she's taking ACE 2 inhibitors...

And "fever is good" - something I've always gone with. I take painkillers for headache, but never fever - and when I do it's paracetomol and codeine - as it happens I tend to have headache when I have fever... but using the codeine I rarely take anything like the safety limit for paracetomol - more usually 50 percent.
I was taking ibuprofen though - because my headaches are usually due to sinusitis - which in the past defeated even codeine ...

 

[Cid]

It's hard to see how the government response could be worse at the moment. Ok, I mean it's short of Trump or Bolsonaro. But... well, that's not saying much. This continuing obfuscation of plans, of hints and teasers, of occasional orders by diktat. It isn't working, it's been clear for some time that it isn't working. I mean what would you expect to happen in a country with a press like ours? If you say you're thinking about some lockdown reviews, if you hint at what that will be, especially in the sieve-like environment of Westminster where every half-decent journalist has their source, of course you will get speculation. On a fucking sunny bank-holiday weekend. How is it possible to fuck that up more?

Secondly, really think the 'economy vs public health' thing needs to be called out more. The two are not mutually exclusive (I mean aside from the whole capitalism thing). An early end to lockdown with some 'great sacrifices to get Britain working' doesn't make economic sense. Future waves are unpredictable. The attitude of countries that have effectively managed their infections to doing business with countries that haven't is unpredictable... On a purely practical level you might see quarantine on entering those countries becoming routine. But beyond that (and more significantly) there are risks of further lockdowns to control the impact on health services, which makes for an unpredictable environment that even the hedge-fund managers will be eyeing with caution.

The ROK is doing a lot of legwork here as 'the good example'... I'm going to use it again, though mainly that's because I know people there and am more familiar with it than say China (where I also know people, but where the broader pictures is probably... less clear). Their economy is functioning. It has been for much of the crisis. It will take a major hit, but I suspect will come out of this looking far better than most other places. We can't do what they did now of course. That would have been contingent on a timely lockdown and high public health spending to rapidly develop test and trace, and to find a way around the PPE problems. But some aspects of that are still open to us - PPE should be increasingly available. We know tests are. We know there are various avenues for tracing. Impose a more strict lockdown until the measures of infection are down. Work through ways in which infection rates in hospitals might be brought down. Then gradually release lockdown.

There are other issues of course... Is the love of freedom that charaterises the west, and obviously only the west as opposed to those Asian places that trust their governments far too much, ever going to accept invasive tracing procedures? Well yeah, because that argument is arse. It just needs to be done in the right way... with consistency and respect for the population. I.e don't fucking consult someone linked to a highly controversial scandal, and a highly controversial individual. Don't even fucking have the appearance of that. Use the many tools you have; communicate properly. Form a cross-party committee, perhaps even throw in some judicial oversight. Make it look like you are making every effort to protect data in the long-term, while making essential short-term compromises to privacy. Frame it in terms of both individual responsibility and government responsibility.

Is this government capable of any of that? doubt it. Ideological opposition to public health spending. A view of any problem as two sided fostered in the debating societies of Eton and Oxbridge and finalised in the benches of Westminster. A view of 'the public' as some nebulous, stupid mass to be nudged about. But we should never forget that there were options. That there were even examples of countries that managed both public health and economy. And that British exceptionalism is as much of a lie as it is for our cousins across the pond.

 

[tommers]

Sure, the Velociraptors Are Still On the Loose, But That’s No Reason Not to Reopen Jurassic Park

“Trump is shrugging off warnings by scientists that the easing restrictions taking place across the country could cause tens of thousands of death...

www.mcsweeneys.net

Targetted at the US but equally applicable here.

 

[CNT36]

So apparently there are ACE 2 receptors in the gut too ...
Anecdotal report by NY doctor that colleague thought she had shingles ...
Also this woman has naturally low body temperature and feels certain she got a whacking great viral load from a patient along with the colleague who is still knackered after 2 weeks, but she had modest symptoms and two antibody tests came up negative - so wonders about natural immunity ... I think she said she's taking ACE 2 inhibitors...

And "fever is good" - something I've always gone with. I take painkillers for headache, but never fever - and when I do it's paracetomol and codeine - as it happens I tend to have headache when I have fever... but using the codeine I rarely take anything like the safety limit for paracetomol - more usually 50 percent.
I was taking ibuprofen though - because my headaches are usually due to sinusitis.

I'll watch that later. There have been some studies showing that those presenting with fever have had better outcomes. I can not remember the details for a second though. Binding to Ace 2 receptors in the digestive system are thought to play a role in infection through the fecal route and diarrhea.

 

[treelover]

Thousands of renters could be evicted in June. Will the government protect them? | David Renton

The coronavirus-related freeze on evictions is ending – and the new ‘pre-action protocol’ relies on the kindness of landlords, says barrister David Renton

www.theguardian.com

The eviction law ends in June, wonder if the Govt will extend it, lots of pressure to do so.

 

[quimcunx]

Cid the same story as in normal times when they cut services to the bone to save money etc. They never understand that a stitch in time saves nine.

Apart from in the years leading up to this, all the things they could have done in those precious few weeks would have cost a lot of money like upscaling test and trace, managing the borders, quarantine, hotels for homeless quicker and stricter lockdown etc etc but would have saved more lives and been cheaper than this ineffective shitshow that will demand more money for fewer results.

 

[2hats]

Government releases redacted SAGE papers in a show of, er, transparency.

UK scientists condemn 'Stalinist' attempt to censor Covid-19 advice

Report criticising government lockdown proposals heavily redacted before release

www.theguardian.com

 

[elbows]

Government releases redacted SAGE papers in a show of, er, transparency.

UK scientists condemn 'Stalinist' attempt to censor Covid-19 advice

Report criticising government lockdown proposals heavily redacted before release

www.theguardian.com

Ah I was wondering what was in the blocked out section 3 of that document!

( https://assets.publishing.service.g...ncing-comments-suggestions-spi-b-01042020.pdf )

 

[elbows]

Wales changes are minimal:

Coronavirus: 'Modest' lockdown changes announced in Wales

People will be allowed to exercise outside more than once a day, First Minister Mark Drakeford says.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[LDC]

Good graphic that. I think lots of people don't get the significance of that 0.1 above an R 1.0 and that's a nice illustration of it. Hope England copies it for the briefing on Sunday.

 

[editor]

We're a global embarrassment

Countries beating Covid-19 — EndCoronavirus.org

See which countries are winning, nearly there, or need action, when it comes to COVID-19.

www.endcoronavirus.org

 

[elbows]

I see scare stories about a great recession, with perhaps a 14% drop in GDP in 2020. I don't get it, don't the economists realise we have had an epidemic and a lockdown? Obviously GDP will be down. What matters is how quickly the economy can come back when the virus is finally more under control!

The FT have resorted to going on about the great frost of 1709!

 

[SpookyFrank]

Good graphic that. I think people don't get the significance of that 0.1 above an R 1.0 and that's a nice illustration of it. Hope England copies it for the briefing on Sunday.

Yes the R values need to be considered in light of the fact that what ever number it is gets raised to an arbitrary power, for every sick person, so anything above 1 basically means 'out of control'.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

We're a global embarrassment


View attachment 211425

View attachment 211424

Countries beating Covid-19 — EndCoronavirus.org

See which countries are winning, nearly there, or need action, when it comes to COVID-19.

www.endcoronavirus.org

As ever with these things, those are massively misleading.

Not such a problem with the top lot. Those are indeed all places that have successfully stamped down on their first infection waves.

But there is a massive range of cases in the second bunch, and they're pretty meaningless after being given different scales not for reasons of population differences but just to fit them at the same size. By those graphs, you'd think Finland was doing almost as badly as Sweden.

 

[editor]

As ever with these things, those are massively misleading.

Not such a problem with the top lot. Those are indeed all places that have successfully stamped down on their first infection waves.

But there is a massive range of cases in the second bunch, and they're pretty meaningless after being given different scales not for reasons of population differences but just to fit them at the same size. By those graphs, you'd think Finland was doing almost as badly as Sweden.

Either way, we're doing fucking shit.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Either way, we're doing fucking shit.

Certainly. In fact, those graphs seriously flatter the UK by making it look like others aren't doing that much better when in fact they are.

 

[weltweit]

Starmer's question at PM questions was highly relevant - UK is worst in Europe, second worst worldwide, how did it come to this? I don't think Johnson answered the question.

 

[editor]

Starmer's question at PM questions was highly relevant - UK is worst in Europe, second worst worldwide, how did it come to this? I don't think Johnson answered the question.

It makes me so fucking angry that this incompetent deadly cunt Boris seems to be blustering his way off the hook. Where's the national anger?

 

[SpookyFrank]

Starmer's question at PM questions was highly relevant - UK is worst in Europe, second worst worldwide, how did it come to this? I don't think Johnson answered the question.

It's too early to compare countries, was Johnson's reply. I would suggest that such hand-wavings are of little use to those who already dead.

 

[2hats]

It's too early to compare countries, was Johnson's reply.

Of course it's not. They themselves have been doing it for weeks, supplying a global death comparison chart. Well, until it was no longer convenient for their narrative.

Besides, one just has to look at the Z-scores (used to enable comparisons between different populations or between different time periods and are expressed in terms of standard deviations from the mean) for excess all-cause mortality across Europe to see what a disaster it has been in England in particular.

Spot the odd one out in this map of all causes excess mortality Z-scores:


England peaked at over 43 s.d. from the mean. Spain 35, Belgium 30, Netherlands 24, Italy 23, France 22.

Interactive plots of the clusterfuck here.

 

[elbows]

Of course it's not. They themselves have been doing it for weeks, supplying a global death comparison chart. Well, until it was no longer convenient for their narrative.

Their current line on comparisons is especially surreal these days because as of yesterday they were still showing a version of that graph, albeit they gave up showing the original UK line that was not for all settings, and just have the all settings one now (which is worse (higher numbers), obviously).

 

[2hats]

Their current line on comparisons is especially surreal these days because as of yesterday they were still showing a version of that graph, albeit they gave up showing the original UK line that was not for all settings, and just have the all settings one now (which is worse (higher numbers), obviously).

Which of course hugely under represents the true total anyway (the lower bound from adding most recent ONS data and subsequent (undercounted) government daily numbers easily reaches 42k whilst the FT estimates it north of 55k). I await with interest each day to see how they redraw the chart to try to lessen the widening gulf.

 

[Doodler]

There's a growing line in some quarters about the economic effects of lockdown actually causing more deaths in the long run and casting a shadow for generations to come etc. Peter Hitchens is probably the most widely read UK newspaper columnist expressing this, doubtless many more pundits with similar views in the US. Hitchens writes well and has a large following.

The generations to come stuff sounds like bollocks. A recession yes but it's after-effects will surely be a matter of political choice. Many countries suffered enormous loss of life, industrial capacity and infrastructure during WW2 but they didn't end up as basket cases for ever more.

 

[elbows]

Which of course hugely under represents the true total anyway (the lower bound from adding most recent ONS data and subsequent government undercounting daily numbers easily reaches 42k whilst the FT estimates it north of 55k). I await with interest each day to see how they redraw the chart to try to lessen the widening gulf.

I havent yet recovered from the time that they just stopped showing intensive care data for two crucial weeks (which turned out to be roughly the two weeks following the peak hospital death day) and then it returned in a different format (percentages of capacity used, not raw numbers of patients).

Excess mortality numbers from ONS etc I follow closely, and its those that I will use to do the ultimate comparisons, but I've avoided trying to do them internationally myself due to variations in lag of this data between countries. Although I'm glad I can look at some FT articles for that in the meantime. I'm also glad they attempt to estimate whats happened since the last cutoff date of ONS data, although I dont tend to quote their numbers on that myself too much, I'd rather lag behind and not use estimates.

 

[elbows]

There's a growing line in some quarters about the economic effects of lockdown actually causing more deaths in the long run and casting a shadow for generations to come etc. Peter Hitchens is probably the most widely read UK newspaper columnist expressing this, doubtless many more pundits with similar views in the US. Hitchens writes well and has a large following.

The generations to come stuff sounds like bollocks. A recession yes but it's after-effects will surely be a matter of political choice. Many countries suffered enormous loss of life, industrial capacity and infrastructure during WW2 but they didn't end up as basket cases for ever more.

It also fails to acknowledge the true scope of the other shadows already hanging over the future, such as stuff relating to energy transition, climate change etc. The century was never going to be a continuation of what came to be seen as normal by the latter part of the 20th century, it was only a question of how much of the old ways would be clung onto and for how long, and whether the rich are allowed to remain rich, the extent to which they would dodge the burden.

I would blend all this stuff together when looking for the sane way forwards. No point treating post-pandemic recovery as its own thing, isolated from the other big issues. I just have to hope that the scale of things this time is simply too large for austerity fuckers to get their way again. That was my initial calculation and I still hear mainstream sentiments that seem to acknowledge it, but at the very least there will be some ugly bumps along the road I'm sure.

Plus the Brexit shadow - we'll never get to see quite what that would have been like on its own now, although I'm sure some fresh post-pandemic implications of Brexit will be evident at various points.

 

[2hats]

There's a growing line in some quarters about the economic effects of lockdown actually causing more deaths in the long run and casting a shadow for generations to come etc.

Or not...

COVID-19 reduces economic activity, which reduces pollution, which saves lives.
(Marshall Burke, Prof. of Earth Systems, Stanford)

Below I calculate that the reductions in air pollution in China caused by this economic disruption likely saved twenty times more lives in China than have currently been lost directly due to infection with the virus in that country.
[...]
Putting these numbers together yields some very large reductions in premature mortality. Using the He et al 2016 estimates of the impact of changes in PM on mortality, I calculate that having 2 months of 10ug/m3 reductions in PM2.5 likely has saved the lives of 4,000 kids under 5 and 73,000 adults over 70 in China. Using even more conservative estimates of 10% reduction in mortality per 10ug change, I estimate 1400 under-5 lives saved and 51700 over-70 lives saved. Even under these more conservative assumptions, the lives saved due to the pollution reductions are roughly 20x the number of lives that have been directly lost to the virus (based on March 8 estimates of 3100 Chinese COVID-19 deaths.

 

[elbows]

If it doesnt end up being a catalyst for things we were going to be very slowly dragged into doing this century anyway then I may retire from thinking. It certainly provides some interesting data for the cause.

 

[Doodler]

Or not...

COVID-19 reduces economic activity, which reduces pollution, which saves lives.
(Marshall Burke, Prof. of Earth Systems, Stanford)

Well that just goes to show Hitchens was right all along. Lockdown is a Green Marxist plot to smash capitalism and replace the family with indiscriminate toad-like copulation.