Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[Maltin]

There's a growing line in some quarters about the economic effects of lockdown actually causing more deaths in the long run

Spoiler

In the long run, everyone dies

 

[Doodler]

If it doesnt end up being a catalyst for things we were going to be very slowly dragged into doing this century anyway then I may retire from thinking. It certainly provides some interesting data for the cause.

In the short term you may be disappointed. Those changes which require other people (like the Chinese) to mend their ways will be the ones most warmly approved of here.

Long term change from intelligent and persistemt action can happen.

 

[elbows]

In the short term you may be disappointed. Those changes which require other people (like the Chinese) to mend their ways will be the ones most warmly approved of here.

Long term change from intelligent and persistemt action can happen.

Well I'm used to short term disappointment and things oscillating back into even worse territory. Scum can squawk all they like, I still think the arse has fallen off some of their ideological justifications, and the scale of things has gone beyond what is compatible with the managed decline at a 'tolerable rate' shit they've been indulging in for pretty much my entire life.

 

[weltweit]

BAME deaths from Covid-19

from 07/05/2020 Latest figures on Covid-19 deaths spark fresh calls to protect BME population | Nursing Times

Analysts found people from all minority ethnic groups, apart from Chinese and mixed-race, are at greater risk of a Covid-19-related death than the white population, in England and Wales.

In particular, black males and females were nearly twice as likely as similar white people to experience a Covid-19 death, said the Office for National Statistics today in its latest update.

from 07/05/2020 Black people four times more likely to die from Covid-19, ONS finds

It discovered that after taking into account age, measures of self-reported health and disability and other socio-demographic characteristics, black people were still almost twice as likely as white people to die a Covid-19-related death.

Bangladeshi and Pakistani males were 1.8 times more likely to die from Covid-19 than white males, after other pre-existing factors had been accounted for, and females from those ethnic groups were 1.6 times more likely to die from the virus than their white counterparts.
..

“People have very reasonably speculated that the increased risk among BME people might be due to people having higher risk of cardiovascular disease or diabetes,” said Ben Goldacre, the director of the DataLab in the Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences at the University of Oxford, who co-led on the study. “Our analysis shows that is actually not the case. That is not the explanation. We’ve been able to exclude one of the current preferred explanations for why BME people face higher risk.”

from 07/05/2020 Why are so many black and ethnic minority people dying from coronavirus – and what does it have to do with heart disease?

Thirty four per cent of confirmed cases of Covid-19 and 32% of deaths in intensive care are amongst people with Black, Asian or Minority Ethnic (BAME) backgrounds, according to statistics from the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre, covering England, Wales and Northern Ireland. This compares with 14.5% of the total population who are of BAME origin (based on ONS 2016 population estimates).
..

Earlier this year, Prof Michael Marmot published a report highlighting how these inequalities have widened over the past ten years and it is possible that these societal inequalities are now also having an impact on the number of BAME people dying of Covid-19. For instance, those with ethnic minority backgrounds are more likely to be affected by poverty in the UK, particularly those from Black African, Pakistani and Bangladeshi backgrounds, though this varies widely from group to group.
..

The Government has launched an inquiry to try to understand the impact of factors that affect your risk from Covid-19, including BAME background, gender and obesity and including a focus on levels of risk among NHS staff. The British Heart Foundation has welcomed this inquiry. We are also supporting the NIHR-UKRI call for research on Covid-19 and ethnicity; it is vital that more research is done to understand this trend and to find out what we can do to protect everyone.

These articles and others resulted from a recent report which explains that BAME individuals are at greater risk of death from a covid-19 infection, the articles draw on the stats in a similar way. Adjusting for the number of NHS staff that are BAME does not wholly explain the increased hospitalisation and deaths of BAME individuals, neither does demographic or class information. In the end the articles pretty much say, BAME individuals are more likely to die from covid-19 but we don't yet know why, and further studies are underway.

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

Maybe the standard ways of adjusting for class factors are not sufficiently robust. Many studies, e.g. The Spirit Level, show how inequality affects us all in ways which may be hard to explain. BAME individuals in British society may be far more likely to succumb to Covid-19 than whites not because of their ethnicity but their class and social status. How does this correlate with statistics in majority Black or Asian countries?

 

[weltweit]

Maybe the standard ways of adjusting for class factors are not sufficiently robust. Many studies, e.g. The Spirit Level, show how inequality affects us all in ways which may be hard to explain. BAME individuals in British society may be far more likely to succumb to Covid-19 than whites not because of their ethnicity but their class and social status. How does this correlate with statistics in majority Black or Asian countries?

What I found frustrating about the articles I read and those I quoted was they said there are more BAME people in ICU, there are more BAME people in the NHS, the risk of death if you are BAME is higher than if you are white, but they go on to say, demographics don't explain it, genetics probably don't explain it … whatever metric they looked at they say didn't explain it.

IIRC New York also said that BAME died more.

If there are studies in majority BAME countries as you suggest that would certainly be interesting.

 

[elbows]

Theres a little something in a recent BBC article about obesity being a risk that could be relevant:

On top of everything else, the ability of the body to fight off the virus - known as the immune response - is not as good in people who are obese.

That's due to inflammation driven by immune cells called macrophages which invade our fat tissue. They interfere with how our cells respond to infection.

According to scientists, this can lead to a 'cytokine storm' - a potentially life-threatening over-reaction of the body's immune system which causes inflammation and serious harm.

A specific type of fat tissue is prone to macrophage invasion. This may explain why people from black, African and ethnic minority backgrounds (BAME), who have more of this type of tissue, "have elevated rates of diabetes, and may be more vulnerable to the virus," Dr Sellayah says.

Coronavirus: Does being overweight or obese affect how ill people get?

Could the amount of fat in our body increase complications with Covid-19?

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[frogwoman]

It also fails to acknowledge the true scope of the other shadows already hanging over the future, such as stuff relating to energy transition, climate change etc. The century was never going to be a continuation of what came to be seen as normal by the latter part of the 20th century, it was only a question of how much of the old ways would be clung onto and for how long, and whether the rich are allowed to remain rich, the extent to which they would dodge the burden.

I would blend all this stuff together when looking for the sane way forwards. No point treating post-pandemic recovery as its own thing, isolated from the other big issues. I just have to hope that the scale of things this time is simply too large for austerity fuckers to get their way again. That was my initial calculation and I still hear mainstream sentiments that seem to acknowledge it, but at the very least there will be some ugly bumps along the road I'm sure.

Plus the Brexit shadow - we'll never get to see quite what that would have been like on its own now, although I'm sure some fresh post-pandemic implications of Brexit will be evident at various points.

Retail was already in deep trouble in the last two quarters of 2019. We had one of the worst, if not the worst black Friday on record last year and my hours were already cut as a result.

This is the killer blow to many travel companies but the sector was already on the ropes at the start of the year

 

[frogwoman]

And like travel and hospitality would be any less fucked without a lockdown. Plus all the jobs that depend on those sectors (which is ultimately most jobs). You can't force people to book holidays ffs

 

[weltweit]

I agree frogwoman the travel industry is in real trouble and it will be a long time before they see any green shoots imo.

I have recruitment companies in my LinkedIn feed, they are bleating because companies aren't recruiting.

 

[frogwoman]

COVID related stock market wobbles were happening towards the end of January when the lockdown of Wuhan was still seen as a weird curiosity by most in Europe

 

[Raheem]

Well that just goes to show Hitchens was right all along. Lockdown is a Green Marxist plot to smash capitalism and replace the family with indiscriminate toad-like copulation.

Social distancing.

Socialist dancing.

It's right there in plain sight.

 

[maomao]

studies in majority BAME countries

There are no countries where ethnic minorities are a majority.

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

There are no countries where ethnic minorities are a majority.

...brain working overtime...

 

[xenon]

Theres a little something in a recent BBC article about obesity being a risk that could be relevant:

Coronavirus: Does being overweight or obese affect how ill people get?

Could the amount of fat in our body increase complications with Covid-19?

www.bbc.co.uk

I saw a good YouTube vid on this same topic. Presented by a South African proff, though an honourery one he freely admitted. Imflamation, being brought on by diabetes etc, being an agrovating factor. The modern lifestyle diseases, refined food, sugar, doing harm generally. He was being interviewed about Covid19. Unfortunatley I can't find it now. Saw it via FB.

 

[sheothebudworths]

What does this mean (the bolded bit in today's notes)? It looks like it'd make the sense the other way around but not this. Unless this does actually mean they have previously counted some tests as processed, when they were actually only sent out (and if so, how do we know how that reflects on the actual number of tests done, particularly in relation to the target set etc), I'm not getting it.

Pillar 2 breakdown of test types

	In-person (tests processed)	Delivery (tests sent out)	Total tests
Daily	31,987	27,183	59,170
Cumulative	403,140	253,267	656,407

• Pillar 1: swab testing in PHE labs and NHS hospitals for those with a clinical need, and health and care workers
• Pillar 2: swab testing for essential workers and their households, as well as other groups that meet the eligibility criteria as set out in government guidance
• Pillar 4: serology and swab testing for national surveillance supported by PHE, ONS, Biobank, universities and other partners to learn more about the prevalence and spread of the virus and for other testing research purposes, for example on the accuracy and ease of use of home testing

See the government’s national testing strategy for more information on the different pillars and ‘Notes on testing’ section below.

See a time series of daily deaths: 8 May 2020 (CSV, 2.65KB)

8 May notes
The daily total for tests is 1 higher than the difference between today and yesterday’s cumulative totals. This is due to historic data revisions to Pillar 1.

The split between ‘in-person’ (tests processed) and ‘delivery’ (tests sent out) has been adjusted. 16,704 historic tests have been moved from ‘in-person’ to ‘delivery’ in the cumulative tests totals to ensure the right allocation of tests from satellite locations. This means that the daily totals for the ‘in-person’ and ‘delivery’ routes will not add up to the difference in cumulative totals.

 

[sheothebudworths]

For further reference (and not dismissing the fact that I'm possibly just being dense - it's not like it's easy to follow/clear) -

Notes on testing figures
Tests in the UK are carried out via a number of different routes. Tests are measured and reported in different ways depending on the route and how they’re administered.

The tests that are within the control of the central programme are counted when they’re processed in our laboratories. For any tests that go outside the control of the central programme, they’re counted when they leave the programme, for example the tests that are mailed out to people at home and the tests that are sent out via satellite sites.

The length of time it takes tests to be concluded varies depending on the testing route and the different processes involved. This means tests carried out on a particular day will not always be measured and reported at the same time.

The daily figures on the number of tests include:

Tests processed through our laboratories
These are counted at the time of processing in the laboratory and not when they are issued to people. Tests are never double-counted. Tests counted in this way are used to calculate the ‘people tested’ figure. This includes:

• all tests under Pillar 1
• ‘in-person’ testing routes under Pillar 2, for example tests carried out at the mobile testing units and the drive-through Regional Testing Sites
• ‘in-person’ testing routes under Pillar 4, for example tests carried out as part of surveillance testing where they are administered by nurses employed by the central programme

Tests sent to individual at home or to satellite testing locations
These are counted when tests are dispatched and not at the time of processing in the laboratory. Tests are never double-counted. Tests counted in this way do not contribute towards the ‘people tested’ figure. This includes:

• ‘delivery’ testing routes under Pillar 2, for example tests carried out by the satellite testing centres, and home testing kits delivered by post
• ‘delivery’ testing routes under Pillar 4, for example tests carried out as part of surveillance testing where they are administered by individuals, rather than nurses employed by the central programme.

For clinical reasons, some people are tested more than once. Therefore the number of tests completed may be higher than the number of people tested. For serology testing (Pillar 4), some protocols allow for samples to be tested repeatedly. Samples are anonymised prior to sending to the lab for testing, therefore the identification of individuals tested is not possible in the current reporting process, and so the number of people tested is not reported.

 

[sheothebudworths]

Also, just ftr, the gov.uk 'daily dashboard' numbers seem to have quietly changed, since yesterday, to include rate per million, across all lha's etc.

UKHSA data dashboard

Showing public health data across England

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

 

[elbows]

Also, just ftr, the gov.uk 'daily dashboard' numbers seem to have quietly changed, since yesterday, to include rate per million, across all lha's etc.

UKHSA data dashboard

Showing public health data across England

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Barrow noticed. Barrow has highest coronavirus infection rate in the country, new figures show

The fact I dont pay much attention to these sorts of numbers due to the testing regime here means I dont know whether to read anything into this at all.

 

[Doctor Carrot]

Having just finished the busiest shift I've ever worked since I started that job around 5 years ago I can safely say few people really give a shit about the lockdown anymore. I still don't think it was ever implemented properly anyway. Regardless of what that mop headed fuckwit says or doesn't say Sunday, many people have already made up their mind anyway. If what I've seen today was replicated across the UK then I fully expect infections to keep rising or, at best, remain level for a good few weeks to come.

 

[Doodler]

Having just finished the busiest shift I've ever worked since I started that job around 5 years ago I can safely say few people really give a shit about the lockdown anymore. I still don't think it was ever implemented properly anyway. Regardless of what that mop headed fuckwit says or doesn't say Sunday, many people have already made up their mind anyway. If what I've seen today was replicated across the UK then I fully expect infections to keep rising or, at best, remain level for a good few weeks to come.

Do you work in a shop or supermarket? Was in the supermarket queue today, people were talking about the lockdown and saying how fed up with it they were. The shoppers seemed less wary than a few weeks ago with maybe more not following the one way system. Must be dismaying to have to see that every day.

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

There are no countries where ethnic minorities are a majority.

Actually a lot of countries, particularly in Africa, have no clear linguistic or ethnic majority. Because the state boundaries were created by the colonial powers they didn’t necessarily bear any relationship to ethnicity. You might still say that all Kenyans are Kenyan, or all Tanzanians are Tanzanian, or you might say that most Kenyans and Tanzanians speak Swahili, or that most of them are Black African. Or whatever. But it’s complicated and variable. BAME only makes sense, if it does, in the context of a particular country. That’s why I’m dubious about claims that BAME populations are genetically predisposed to Covid-19, because there is nothing genetically to link in the UK groups of, say, Somalis, Jamaicans, Chinese and Pakistanis.

 

[sheothebudworths]

Barrow noticed. Barrow has highest coronavirus infection rate in the country, new figures show

The fact I dont pay much attention to these sorts of numbers due to the testing regime here means I dont know whether to read anything into this at all.

Erm..per 100k, not a million and actually now I'm even more confused - it's deaths per 100k, not cases of infection.

I guess it obvs ignores how sparsely populated places are - like when you choose to read it like that on the worldwide list, so that San Marino is top of both of those lists, but the more measures the better, I suppose.

 

[Doctor Carrot]

Do you work in a shop or supermarket? Was in the supermarket queue today, people were talking about the lockdown and saying how fed up with it they were. The shoppers seemed less wary than a few weeks ago with maybe more not following the one way system. Must be dismaying to have to see that every day.

I work in a corner shop. We've been much busier since lockdown started. I was really quite pissed off with people's attitude to it at the beginning but I had to stop doing that because it was only me it was bothering.

Throughout the lockdown I have frequently seen people make several appearances during my, on average, 8 hour shift and they'll buy one or two items a time. It was bloody terrifying at first but I feel a lot more at ease now I have a face shield. That behaviour continues of course, in fact it's more frequent, but I have a sort of dead eyed and rather weary response to it now.

From my limited anecdotal experience, I think most people have done OK and stuck with the very loose rules but a very significant minority have treated it more or less as business as usual. I've learned a hell of a lot about the country I live in these past few weeks. This pandemic has exposed so much. There is a severe lack of social conscience in this country and that's hardly surprising given the decades that have preceded this. I still think there is something there but the selfishness is strong. I'm now more sure than ever that I want to leave England though, just for a year or so but fat chance of that happening any time soon!

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

I'm not convinced by all the 'look how shit people are here' stuff. Seems to me where there's been a stronger lockdown that's generally been enforced with a heavy police presence on the street.

 

[elbows]

Erm..per 100k, not a million and actually now I'm even more confused - it's deaths per 100k, not cases of infection.

What is deaths per 100k? We were talking about the UK dashboard, and the stuff on it by local area etc, the table next to the map, the stuff with rates, is cases not deaths. The dashboard is no good for regional or local death info, thats one of the reasons I rarely use it, and the other being that I dont really know how much our case numbers mean, given testing limitations.

 

[Doctor Carrot]

I'm not convinced by all the 'look how shit people are here' stuff. Seems to me where there's been a stronger lockdown that's generally been enforced with a heavy police presence on the street.

My view of it is definitely going to be different than most because I've been working amongst it throughout. There's quite a lot of green space where I live and all I know is those spaces and where I work have been way too busy for a place that's supposed to be on lockdown.

 

[SpookyFrank]

If there are studies in majority BAME countries as you suggest that would certainly be interesting.

Majority minority countries?

 

[William of Walworth]

I'm not convinced by all the 'look how shit people are here' stuff.

I absolutely get why some people are posting here and in other threads about how bad their experiences are of people conforming really badly to lock-down rules.

I do think it's worth remembering though that different places can experience wildly different levels of rule-breaking.

Most of the time, here in Swansea, we see vastly fewer numbers of people behaving like arses.
There'll always be exceptions, and we've seen one or two, but most of the time we see people distancing well and doing their best.

And in the city centre especially, the streets largely remain near-empty of both traffic and people.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Actually a lot of countries, particularly in Africa, have no clear linguistic or ethnic majority. Because the state boundaries were created by the colonial powers they didn’t necessarily bear any relationship to ethnicity. You might still say that all Kenyans are Kenyan, or all Tanzanians are Tanzanian, or you might say that most Kenyans and Tanzanians speak Swahili, or that most of them are Black African. Or whatever. But it’s complicated and variable. BAME only makes sense, if it does, in the context of a particular country. That’s why I’m dubious about claims that BAME populations are genetically predisposed to Covid-19, because there is nothing genetically to link in the UK groups of, say, Somalis, Jamaicans, Chinese and Pakistanis.

I tried to come up with something useful to add here but I think I need to do more homework first. Suffice to say that I really don't think 'it's genetic' is a good enough explanation for the observed differences in susceptibility.