What is most likely to happen, therefore, is that when the prime minister allows a limited, cautious relaxation, the case and death rates will start to drift up again. The rise may be quite slow initially, as many of the disparate outbreaks have died out for lack of fresh meat. New ones may take time to get started.
And, of course, the government and its agencies will be fiddling the figures for all they are worth. When they can't get away with that, they will be blurring and obfuscating the data, aiming to confuse and distract, robbing the figures of meaning. They will try anything in an attempt to slow down and weaken the inevitable flood of adverse comment and political blowback.
No doubt, the government team driving the response to this epidemic will be hoping that the plans to install their mobile phone-based contact tracing system can be implemented quickly. If the are, the new system may take the edge off any increase.
It wouldn't surprise me if they were then banking on the inherent lag in the death figures buying them enough time to get us in to the early summer, when the hope will be that the infection rate will drop naturally, exhibiting the seasonal variations which are so often a feature of this type of illness.
Even if they manage to hold the case rate down, that doesn't solve the problem. Their app-based contact tracing scheme is unlikely to achieve anything other than a marginal slowdown in the progress of the epidemic. And, if the illness does exhibit seasonal variation, then come the autumn and winter, we could be back where we started.