Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[Supine]

Like it or not herd immunity is the best thing we can hope for with covid. From vaccine would be ideal but built up from infection is also beneficial.

The mistake of government was thinking of it as a possible strategy rather than as a desired end game.

 

[Raheem]

I love my neighbour's cat calling round on his daily scrounge patrol.
He does a lot of winning wriggling on his back, purring, and rubbing against me.
I keep a bag of Dreamies to treat him.
Anyway does anybody know if the Rona can be caught by stroking and head scratching a passing cat?

I don't know, but there was a tiger at the Bronx Zoo that got infected, which maybe suggests social distancing between cats and humans is a good idea.

 

[wayward bob]

i think it only re-confirms what we already knew about social distancing between tigers and humans

 

[hegley]

. scratch that - bob beat me to it.

 

[SheilaNaGig]

I don't know, but there was a tiger at the Bronx Zoo that got infected, which maybe suggests social distancing between cats and humans is a good idea.

Blimey!

8 big cats have tested positive for coronavirus at the Bronx Zoo | CNN

Seven more big cats have coronavirus at the Bronx Zoo, in addition to a tiger that tested positive earlier this month, the Wildlife Conservation Society announced.

edition.cnn.com

 

[Smangus]

I don't think it's a misuse but the term "Herd Immunity" as used has taken on a significant political meaning beyond the medical which is emotive and unhelpful.

 

[zahir]

Thus, it seemed an entirely logical, if not a somewhat delayed, response of the government to commission a network of so-called Nightingale Hospitals to provide care for Covid-19 patients. It also seemed to accord with the Chinese practice of using purpose-built "shelter hospitals".

Furthermore, this appeared to conform with the principles set out in the WHO checklist for influenza pandemic preparedness planning, published in 2005. This advised members to determine potential alternative sites for medical care, such as schools, gymnasiums, nursing homes, day-care centres or tents in hospital grounds.

Members were also to determine the level of care that might be provided in alternative healthcare facilities, and to develop a contingency plan for providing these alternative facilities with the equipment and supplies adequate for the level of care that would be provided.

It turns out, though – and not for the first time – that the UK was singing to its own tune. Rather than the Nightingale Hospitals being treated as alternative sites, keeping infection out of the existing hospitals, they have become overspill units, with the NHS hospital service still taking the brunt of referrals.

EU Referendum

eureferendum.com

 

[Teaboy]

No, population expose is not thought to have been great enough, and cannot be allowed to become great enough again in future, for the 'we get immunity gradually' plan to make any sense at all. All sorts of governments would have preferred if it did make sense, if the hospitalisation and death rates was low enough to allow it, so that we could treat it like the flu pandemics of the 20th century and only do some basic mitigation rather than suppression. But that was not the case (as best we can tell and the models suggest) so they had no choice, the neo-liberal compatible template shrivelled and we got good old fashioned economically destructive social distancing measures instead.

There has been a problem getting sufficient data about rates of actual infection so far, and maybe with estimating how many people are really susceptible in general too. But those would still need to change dramatically from what picture they have indicated so far, in order for any versions of the 'herd immunity' plan to find fresh merit, currently its defunct and so I cannot agree with your vision of the future.

You say herd immunity is dead in the water but I cannot see any other approach our government is currently taking. The CMO doesn't seem keen on detecting, tracing, tracking etc (whether that's because personal bias or belief that the country just isn't up to it). So what other option is there for them?

It seems to me herd immunity was the plan and still is the plan. Why else are they still keeping building sites open? Why else are international flights still arriving every day and there is zero obligation on those arriving to undergo any form of quarantine?

If they don't believe in herd immunity the only strategy I can see is 'ride it out, don't overwhelm the NHS and see who and what is left at the end'. That doesn't seem like a strategy to me.

What am I missing here?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

You say herd immunity is dead in the water but I cannot see any other approach our government is currently taking. The CMO doesn't seem keen on detecting, tracing, tracking etc (whether that's because personal bias or belief that the country just isn't up to it). So what other option is there for them?

It seems to me herd immunity was the plan and still is the plan. Why else are they still keeping building sites open? Why else are international flights still arriving every day and there is zero obligation on those arriving to undergo any form of quarantine?

If they don't believe in herd immunity the only strategy I can see is 'ride it out, don't overwhelm the NHS and see who and what is left at the end'. That doesn't seem like a strategy to me.

What am I missing here?

Isn't the truth that there is no clear strategy because there is still no clear agreement on what the strategy should be? So we just stumble along aimlessly. Meanwhile, most of the rest of Europe is in the process of implementing their strategies. My impression is that they're holding off announcing anything resembling a strategy until the results start coming in from the rest of Europe.

 

[bimble]

Like it or not herd immunity is the best thing we can hope for with covid. From vaccine would be ideal but built up from infection is also beneficial.

The mistake of government was thinking of it as a possible strategy rather than as a desired end game.

Possible it wasn’t ever really a strategy as such just the most easily achievable outcome on the table, the route of least intervention and least expenditure, which would have appealed. Their mistake at least in part was using the word herd out loud on tv.

 

[LDC]

Novara is a bit hit and miss, but this latest interview with Dr Bill Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard, is excellent imo. Covers the problems with 'herd immunity' and possible ways out of the current situation, and more.

 

[Lurdan]

The Times write up of the plan for how

An army of thousands of coronavirus contact tracers is to be trained within weeks to help Britain to exit lockdown.

Army of thousands to help trace coronavirus victims - Times (paywalled)

Archived version here

Council staff and civil servants are among those who will be drafted in as part of a three-tier system to ensure that every infected person is isolated before they pass the virus on to others.

(...)

The aim would be to track more than 80 per cent of people with whom an infected person had been in contact within 24 hours of diagnosis. Infected people and those they had contact with would be quarantined until the risk that they could get the illness had passed.

(...)

They acknowledge that it will require a huge workforce and that setting one up is crucial. A Cabinet Office official said that the plan was to have the scheme running before May 7, when ministers must review the lockdown. “We cannot announce any easing of the lockdown until we know that testing and contact tracing is working effectively,” they said.

To what extent this is about creating mechanisms for actual tracking and tracing, as distinct from having a strategy in place to justify easing the lockdown, we shall no doubt see. Well most of us will.

 

[SpookyFrank]

I don't think it's a misuse but the term "Herd Immunity" as used has taken on a significant political meaning beyond the medical which is emotive and unhelpful.

Someone else on here was talking about the government 'actively implementing' herd immunity. That is very definitely not a thing.

 

[zahir]

Like it or not herd immunity is the best thing we can hope for with covid.

Does this just apply to the UK or does it go for the rest of the world as well? Are South Korea, Greece, New Zealand, the Faroes getting it wrong?

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

I don't think herd immunity has ever actually been a strategy tbh. What it was was an excuse for inaction - it seems pretty clear to me that the government's unwillingness to act came before anything to do with herd immunity. So I don't think it makes sense to talk about some sort of secret herd immunity strategy being implemented in the background, it's just a combination of a general lack of direction and unwillingness to put a stop to some activities, particularly where there is a lot of money involved.

 

[LDC]

Does this just apply to the UK or does it go for the rest of the world as well? Are South Korea, Greece, New Zealand, the Faroes getting it wrong?

The point made in the video I posted above is that all the different strategies taken by countries that have been reasonably successful need to be followed by 'so far'.

 

[SpookyFrank]

I don't think herd immunity has ever actually been a strategy tbh. What it was was an excuse for inaction - it seems pretty clear to me that the government's unwillingness to act came before anything to do with herd immunity. So I don't think it makes sense to talk about some sort of secret herd immunity strategy being implemented in the background, it's just a combination of a general lack of direction and unwillingness to put a stop to some activities, particularly where there is a lot of money involved.

If it was a strategy they wouldn't have changed course in response to the increasing fatality rate as that would have been all part of the plan.

A plan which, if it existed, would basically be a war crime without the war.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The Times write up of the plan for how


Army of thousands to help trace coronavirus victims - Times (paywalled)

Archived version here


(...)

(...)


To what extent this is about creating mechanisms for actual tracking and tracing, as distinct from having a strategy in place to justify easing the lockdown, we shall no doubt see. Well most of us will.

So they're just about to start doing the thing they should have started doing five weeks ago? Fuck me.

 

[Teaboy]

Isn't the truth that there is no clear strategy because there is still no clear agreement on what the strategy should be? So we just stumble along aimlessly. Meanwhile, most of the rest of Europe is in the process of implementing their strategies. My impression is that they're holding off announcing anything resembling a strategy until the results start coming in from the rest of Europe.

Its certainly the right thing to do to let your plan / strategy be informed by the experience of others. Surely though, there has to be some sort of plan in the first place? I'm becoming increasingly concerned that it is going to be virtually impossible for the vast majority of the country to not become infected at some point.

 

[Teaboy]

So they're just about to start doing the thing they should have started doing five weeks ago? Fuck me.

Well, that army bloke was talking more about their role in planning and devising logistics rather than actually delivering stuff with their trucks. I think what will become apparent is that there were no systems or plans in place, no contingencies for how something like this could be done even if they wanted to. All the plans are starting from scratch and take time to develop. Pretty mad stuff.

 

[Doodler]

The government are like the team on the middle management outdoor adventure course who keep fucking up all their tasks: building the rope bridge, reading the map properly, finding the buried clues etc.

 

[elbows]

I don't think herd immunity has ever actually been a strategy tbh. What it was was an excuse for inaction - it seems pretty clear to me that the government's unwillingness to act came before anything to do with herd immunity. So I don't think it makes sense to talk about some sort of secret herd immunity strategy being implemented in the background, it's just a combination of a general lack of direction and unwillingness to put a stop to some activities, particularly where there is a lot of money involved.

There is what became the 20th century norm of 'mitigation' during pandemics, and there is the more dramatic suppression that we ended up doing.

Herd immunity was just a way to try to justify the former, because it does form part of the underlying rationale for that approach, or at least a description of what happens in practice. But that wasnt viable for this pandemic, so they had to switch to the other approach, which is one that gradually slows the rate of infection to the point that you 'never' expect the required proportion of the country to get infected and gain immunity.

 

[killer b]

So they're just about to start doing the thing they should have started doing five weeks ago? Fuck me.

There's a paragraph in Stephen Bush's mailout this morning (about facemasks, but I think pertinent to a lot of the wider changing strategy) which I think probably throws some light onto this.

Across the world, governments have been engaging in the same dance: the science on the benefits of mask-wearing is “finely balanced” up until the point when they become confident that they have sufficient and guaranteed supply of masks to maintain the supply into their healthcare system, at which point, who'd have thought it: it turns out masks are a sensible precaution after all!

 

[ska invita]

I don't think herd immunity has ever actually been a strategy tbh. What it was was an excuse for inaction - it seems pretty clear to me that the government's unwillingness to act came before anything to do with herd immunity. So I don't think it makes sense to talk about some sort of secret herd immunity strategy being implemented in the background, it's just a combination of a general lack of direction and unwillingness to put a stop to some activities, particularly where there is a lot of money involved.

Broadly agree they were driven by excuses for inaction, but they were having regular meetings to work out a strategy, and this is what they came up with. That's still a strategy to all intents and purposes.

It "doesn't make sense to talk about some sort of secret herd immunity strategy being implemented " because it wasn't a secret - Johnson talked about it on breakfast TV sofa over cornflakes.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

It "doesn't make sense to talk about some sort of secret herd immunity strategy being implemented " because it wasn't a secret - Johnson talked about it on breakfast TV sofa over cornflakes.

Yes but they aren't doing that now - but people are still referring to a herd immunity strategy being implemented somehow on the quiet.

 

[Raheem]

Yes but they aren't doing that now - but people are still referring to a herd immunity strategy being implemented somehow on the quiet.

As you've correctly pointed out, it was part of an excuse for inaction. We're now in a situation where something is being done, but not anything that offers a way out of lockdown. You can bet your behind there are still influential voices arguing that a way has to be found to make it politically acceptable to just give up and let the virus take its toll. Not a strategy being implemented at present, but also not something that has gone away, in all likelihood.

 

[zahir]

.

This is the clearest evidence we have that the different approaches to tackling the Covid-19 outbreak are resulting in different outcomes. This may change as the pandemic progresses but for now it is reasonable to assume that the North’s higher death rates result from lower rates of testing, the lack of contact tracing and the slower application of lockdown measures compared with the Republic.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

That does need a few caveats, though, to make sure you're comparing like with like. It might be more revealing to specifically compare Belfast with Dublin.

For instance, the reason Belgium has been more badly hit than the Netherlands isn't really down to anything better that the Dutch have done. It's mostly just down to bad luck, tbh. It's not evidence on its own that the Belgian stricter lockdown was a bad idea.

We've got to be really careful not to cherry-pick data that serves our desired conclusions.

 

[Teaboy]

That does need a few caveats, though, to make sure you're comparing like with like. It might be more revealing to specifically compare Belfast with Dublin.

For instance, the reason Belgium has been more badly hit than the Netherlands isn't really down to anything better that the Dutch have done. It's mostly just down to bad luck, tbh. It's not evidence on its own that the Belgian stricter lockdown was a bad idea.

Yeah and just comparing countries covid death rate just seems a like a minefield anyway. As elbows has mentioned numerous times total death rates seem really important in all this and potentially a more thorough way of comparing like for like. Mind, I would still expect the a similar looking graph.

 

[hegley]

Scottish government has published their framework now, including exit strategy:
https://www.gov.scot/binaries/conte...avirus-covid-19-framework-decision-making.pdf