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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

Sorry I wasn't very clear there. I didn't mean in terms of them both being in force at the same time. More that it seems to me that based on the apparent logic of the two things, either this is going to be totally useless, because anyone with the virus will have left a swathe of infection across the land before getting tested and this will pick up just a handful of people, or that all the recent angst about 2m distancing is actually a bit pointless. Maybe there's a very finely-balanced point where this could identify just about enough infected people to keep a lid on things, I don't know. But the messages look very contradictory to me.

Yeah, my suspicion is the track and trace thing will be useless here at any point in the near future, and it's something for the government to talk about at the moment.
 
Eh...?

Head of armed forces is on the briefing today. Will he threaten to put the tanks on the streets if people don't stay at home?

I'm assuming it's going to be "Our boys give good test" (with inadequate PPE) - but let's see.
 
Or it could be about PPE distribution.

Meanwhile, here's an incredible tale about the PPE stockpile.


Has to be read to be believed. Guardian won't reveal exactly where it is but give enough clues (including a nice picture) for mauvais to find it on google maps in about 3 seconds.

But that's not the story.

The story is about the outsourcing to a private (American, surprise, surprise) healthcare company, the selling of that company bang in the middle of this pandemic, that company's legal battles with the warehouse owner, and the holding and distribution rights being sold further to a French company.

All seems legit. :facepalm:
 
Not really - you can just search 'Movianto' and look for the one by the motorway :D

If you look in the right place there's a big sign saying 'Morley' too.
 
Or it could be about PPE distribution.

Yup, you were right. Logistics in general. Sounds like there were no workable plans in place on the logistics front and they're having to design everything from scratch. Quite interesting the army guy on the where they are contributing and telling of how unprepared we were as a country.
 
Whitty just said in the Press Conference that in the absence of a vaccine or a reliable therapeutic drug combo which he saw as very unlikely in this calendar year that the reliance would be on social distancing measures for the foreseeable. :(
 
Whitty just said in the Press Conference that in the absence of a vaccine or a reliable therapeutic drug combo which he saw as very unlikely in this calendar year that the reliance would be on social distancing measures for the foreseeable. :(

Yes. They've not been hiding from saying that for while. Its just what those measures are which they are not able to say at the moment.
 
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Whitty just said in the Press Conference that in the absence of a vaccine or a reliable therapeutic drug combo which he saw as very unlikely in this calendar year that the reliance would be on social distancing measures for the foreseeable. :(

That's been clear in the plan from the outset if people read the research papers, but in the midst of the mess, shit press questions, and the understandable stress we've seen in the last few weeks it has been a bit sidelined, but yes it did come out tonight more clearly. It is grim and it's going to be harsh when this seeps into the public consciousness.
 
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Whitty just said in the Press Conference that in the absence of a vaccine or a reliable therapeutic drug combo which he saw as very unlikely in this calendar year that the reliance would be on social distancing measures for the foreseeable. :(

Social distancing to manage the infection spread. Slow and manage that and the corresponding death rate until we get immunity from either a vaccine and/or population exposure and immunity. Testing and track and trace and all the rest of those things are almost red herrings I think to the wider plan.
 
Or it could be about PPE distribution.

Meanwhile, here's an incredible tale about the PPE stockpile.


Has to be read to be believed. Guardian won't reveal exactly where it is but give enough clues (including a nice picture) for mauvais to find it on google maps in about 3 seconds.

But that's not the story.

The story is about the outsourcing to a private (American, surprise, surprise) healthcare company, the selling of that company bang in the middle of this pandemic, that company's legal battles with the warehouse owner, and the holding and distribution rights being sold further to a French company.

All seems legit. :facepalm:
So does that mean that there is currently a stock of PPE sitting in that warehouse that remains undistributed? It's not clear (to me) from the article.
 
Whitty just said in the Press Conference that in the absence of a vaccine or a reliable therapeutic drug combo which he saw as very unlikely in this calendar year that the reliance would be on social distancing measures for the foreseeable. :(

Yes this is the expected picture unless some surprising new revelation about the virus emerges.

It doesnt mean that all the same measures will carry on continually through the year. Some will, but others will be tinkered with, different things will be balanced, there are quite a lot of possibilities really. None of them are a 'return to the old normal', but neither is everything supposed to carry on just like it is right now for the rest of the year.

Quite a lot could be read into things Whitty said today. Still no good news in terms of antibody data from Porton Down, it was hard to tell if Whitty was suggesting the tests at Porton Down werent good enough either, or whether he was talking about other antibody tests. I'm a bit out of date on that topic.

I have to say that when Whitty was talking about improved testing in future, I did not detect a concrete commitment to a full on test, track, trace every person type scheme. Rather he was talking about using increased testing to detect increases in infection in communities quickly once we reach some future stage, so we didnt have the lag of waiting for hospital admissions to show an increase. That is important so that you know if something has gone wrong as a consequence of relaxing certain measures, but it is not the same as actually trying to utterly suppress and eradicate the virus by finding every single case you can. This doesnt mean they will never do that, but I still dont really detect a full commitment to it so far. Probably they are still hedging their bets and hoping to get away without going down that route.

Whitty also went on about how the peak we've just had was not a natural epidemic peak, because of the social distancing interventions, it was an artificial peak. So the peaks would be expected to happen around the country at about the same time, unlike what can happen with natural epidemics. Because the 'lockdown' happened at the same time all across the land. And of course that also means that places that had smaller/later epidemics brewing at the moment when lockdown came, fared much better in terms of deaths. Their emerging epidemics were 'nipped in the bud' in a way that couldnt be said of London or various other places. Anyway Whitty didnt quite say all of that, I added a bit to the subject he brought up.
 
Social distancing to manage the infection spread. Slow and manage that and the corresponding death rate until we get immunity from either a vaccine and/or population exposure and immunity. Testing and track and trace and all the rest of those things are almost red herrings I think to the wider plan.

No, population expose is not thought to have been great enough, and cannot be allowed to become great enough again in future, for the 'we get immunity gradually' plan to make any sense at all. All sorts of governments would have preferred if it did make sense, if the hospitalisation and death rates was low enough to allow it, so that we could treat it like the flu pandemics of the 20th century and only do some basic mitigation rather than suppression. But that was not the case (as best we can tell and the models suggest) so they had no choice, the neo-liberal compatible template shrivelled and we got good old fashioned economically destructive social distancing measures instead.

There has been a problem getting sufficient data about rates of actual infection so far, and maybe with estimating how many people are really susceptible in general too. But those would still need to change dramatically from what picture they have indicated so far, in order for any versions of the 'herd immunity' plan to find fresh merit, currently its defunct and so I cannot agree with your vision of the future.
 
No, population expose is not thought to have been great enough, and cannot be allowed to become great enough again in future, for the 'we get immunity gradually' plan to make any sense at all. All sorts of governments would have preferred if it did make sense, if the hospitalisation and death rates was low enough to allow it, so that we could treat it like the flu pandemics of the 20th century and only do some basic mitigation rather than suppression. But that was not the case (as best we can tell and the models suggest) so they had no choice, the neo-liberal compatible template shrivelled and we got good old fashioned economically destructive social distancing measures instead.

There has been a problem getting sufficient data about rates of actual infection so far, and maybe with estimating how many people are really susceptible in general too. But those would still need to change dramatically from what picture they have indicated so far, in order for any versions of the 'herd immunity' plan to find fresh merit, currently its defunct and so I cannot agree with your vision of the future.

Yeah, the level seems to be low percentage wise, but it will increase whether that's the plan or not as social distancing measures flex right? And if there's no vaccine then that as a managed option is the only possible route unless total suppression is possible?
 
So, forgive me I'm wrong. I'm catching up... but they did actually gently suggest we're going to be in social lockdown until the end of the year, minimum?
 
So, forgive me I'm wrong. I'm catching up... but they did actually gently suggest we're going to be in social lockdown until the end of the year, minimum?

There's bound to be some lifting of the lockdown over the coming month or so, but mass gatherings & the likes of pubs, clubs, restaurants, etc., are likely to remain closed for a longer period IMO.
 
So does that mean that there is currently a stock of PPE sitting in that warehouse that remains undistributed? It's not clear (to me) from the article.

Yes, but some isn't of use against Covid apparently (though a lot is).

That stockpile is made up of around 52,000 pallets of equipment worth an estimated £500m. While it contains antiviral medicines and flu vaccines which are of limited use against Covid-19, the bulk of stocks are said to be PPE and hygiene products.
 
There's bound to be some lifting of the lockdown over the coming month or so, but mass gatherings & the likes of pubs, clubs, restaurants, etc., are likely to remain closed for a longer period IMO.

How will that even work for white collar workers? Getting in lifts etc? Never mind sitting at your desk next to your colleague.

I lost my job anyway but I assume it'll be WFH until at the next year?
 
Another comment by Whitty today made it sound like I could read between the lines in regards something else I have been wondering about. He was going on about the Nightingale hospitals giving them more options in terms of how NHS resources are deployed in future, even if their raw capacity didnt end up being required for this epidemic wave. I do wonder if at some point they will try to segregate Covid-19 and non-Covid-19 patient care in a manner that could make a useful difference to infection control and the rate of R in clinical settings.
 
Another comment by Whitty today made it sound like I could read between the lines in regards something else I have been wondering about. He was going on about the Nightingale hospitals giving them more options in terms of how NHS resources are deployed in future, even if their raw capacity didnt end up being required for this epidemic wave. I do wonder if at some point they will try to segregate Covid-19 and non-Covid-19 patient care in a manner that could make a useful difference to infection control and the rate of R in clinical settings.

Yeah, I took it as, these Nightingale hospitals could take most C-19 cases, allowing many other hospitals to return to normal service.
 
Another comment by Whitty today made it sound like I could read between the lines in regards something else I have been wondering about. He was going on about the Nightingale hospitals giving them more options in terms of how NHS resources are deployed in future, even if their raw capacity didnt end up being required for this epidemic wave. I do wonder if at some point they will try to segregate Covid-19 and non-Covid-19 patient care in a manner that could make a useful difference to infection control and the rate of R in clinical settings.

I think something like that is about right once this main wave has past.
 
Bit like the old infectious diseases hospitals then? Do we even have any proper ones of those anymore? There used to be one over the fence from my school, occasionally you‘d get helicopters landing with patients fresh out of Africa with yellow fever or whatever (sometimes reported on the news)
 
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