Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

Not quite. My point was that I have only got weekly data going back to 1999. Data from much earlier periods should of existed at the time, its just a question of how its been stored since - I'm not convinced I can get it electronically, but if I could attend national archives in person (which is obviously not a viable plan right now) then I may be able to get it manually. I dont know, I have never seen any of the old 'surgeon generals quarterly review' of whatever it was called back then. I think there was a yearly review too but I dont know if weekly numbers are in that, I dont even know if weekly figures are in the quarterly reviews. But I'm pretty sure weekly figures existed at the time, because very occasionally I stumble upon an old paper about influenza epidemics that has weekly figures graphed.

Just a quick follow-up to that. The data for earlier does exist, I can see it expressed by all the blue dots on this graph from the FT article:


Obviously in this format I dont know which year each dot is for, so for example I dont know which year the very highest dot for week 1 is, way off at the top, well beyond 20,000. But I know January 1976 had a rather large amount of flu death, and I do have quarterly figures for 1966-1999 which show the first quarter of 1976 as being by far the highest quarterly figure for this range of time, so I'm going to guess that the highest dot is for week 1 January 1976. I was 9 months old at that time.

 

[William of Walworth]

<posted in error -- sorry>

 

[SpookyFrank]

Semi-good news on hospitalisaiton figures. They're falling, most sharply in London, which is showing a curve similar to those I've seen in better-managed countries like Switzerland, down now by around 25% from peak. Bit concerning that other areas are not falling as much/at all, but hopefully that's just a bit of a time lag, London being the first, and hardest hit, area.

It's possible that the steady-ish level observed in non-London bits of the country reflects the numbers that they're physically able to admit to hospital. So assuming cases are starting to fall, it could be that a higher proportion of those with severe symptoms are going into hospital, or that people are able to be hospitalised earlier. If so this should be reflected in improved survival rates a week or so down the line.

 

[killer b]

I've not heard anything to suggest many (any?) hospitals are physically unable to admit any more patients tbh.

 

[nagapie]

Funnily enough, Matt Hancock is making a statement to parliament right now and has literally just done that.

Prick.

I and many of my colleagues in a London school have not taken up the offer as we needed the tests weeks ago when we actually believed we had the virus. It's a bit bloody late!

 

[zora]

Yes, I have heard this (can't remember source) about lack of demand for tests being blamed, with no mention of the 200 mile round trips some people would have to take to their nearest test center, nevermind some people not having a car or being too poorly to travel.
Also was just about to post the same point that nagapie just made: Seems to me, it would have made sense to test NHS staff in the first wave of so many isolating due to them or a family member being symptomatic, so at least we'd now know who among them has already had it, rather than later on relying on antibody tests...but what do I know...

 

[littlebabyjesus]

It's possible that the steady-ish level observed in non-London bits of the country reflects the numbers that they're physically able to admit to hospital. So assuming cases are starting to fall, it could be that a higher proportion of those with severe symptoms are going into hospital, or that people are able to be hospitalised earlier. If so this should be reflected in improved survival rates a week or so down the line.

I don't think so. afaik the various nightingale hospitals are not full. What has happened, as explained last night by the psychiatrist in the doctors' talk, is that non-covid patients have been discharged as and when necessary to make room for covid patients, so for instance a lot of psychiatric patients have been released into the community at the moment.

 

[SpookyFrank]

I don't think so. afaik the various nightingale hospitals are not full. What has happened, as explained last night by the psychiatrist in the doctors' talk, is that non-covid patients have been discharged as and when necessary to make room for covid patients, so for instance a lot of psychiatric patients have been released into the community at the moment.

I keep trying to think of explanations for things based on a world where grown ups are in charge

 

[cupid_stunt]

the various nightingale hospitals are not full.

Bit hard to fill them up TBH, the one in London has only taken in about 40, and turned away about another 60, because of the lack of nurses.

 

[IC3D]

If they tested hospital staff there would be massive shortages.
I am beginning to think that herd immunity is actively being implemented on NHS staff to prepare for the long haul

 

[elbows]

If they tested hospital staff there would be massive shortages.
I am beginning to think that herd immunity is actively being implemented on NHS staff to prepare for the long haul

The thought has crossed my mind more than once, mostly as a consequence of the original plan and various PPE & infection control disasters, but also the tendency of some for cold calculations and certain establishment instincts.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Meanwhile in Scotland, about a third of the deaths have been recorded in care homes, which is more in line with reports from the rest of Europe, showing 35-50% of cases are in the care sector.

The National Records of Scotland figures include all deaths where coronavirus was believed to have been present, rather than just confirmed cases.

A third of the deaths were recorded in care homes.

Of the 1,616 deaths where the virus has been mentioned on the death certificate either as a confirmed or suspected factor, 910 (56%) were in hospitals, while 537 (33%) were in care homes and 168 (10%) were at home or in non-institutional settings.

Coronavirus in Scotland: Total number of deaths rises to more than 1,600

A third of all deaths linked to the virus have been recorded in care homes, new figures show.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Teaboy]

If they tested hospital staff there would be massive shortages.
I am beginning to think that herd immunity is actively being implemented on NHS staff to prepare for the long haul

I certainly think the way they are opening up these drive thru testing centres for NHS staff is certainly a trial run for releasing it onto the public. Otherwise it doesn't really make much sense. Why not test them where they work?

A new drive thru one has opened near me recently. I know its not all about hospitals but I live in a London Borough that has no hospitals and besides that testing facility at Ikea Wembley is not far. Odd.

 

[Dogsauce]

Meanwhile in Scotland, about a third of the deaths have been recorded in care homes, which is more in line with reports from the rest of Europe, showing 35-50% of cases are in the care sector.

Coronavirus in Scotland: Total number of deaths rises to more than 1,600

A third of all deaths linked to the virus have been recorded in care homes, new figures show.

www.bbc.co.uk

There must be people out there with relatives that would benefit from being in a home who just wont be able to get them the care they need at the moment, I can’t see anyone sticking a parent in a home knowing how prevalent infections are at the moment and what that would mean. Hard decision to make and feel for anyone facing it.

 

[two sheds]

Have they blamed lack of demand for the low number of daily tests yet?

She hinted at it in that Piers Morgan video by saying we need the capacity and the number of people going forward.



God that was atrocious.

 

[LDC]

I certainly think the way they are opening up these drive thru testing centres for NHS staff is certainly a trial run for releasing it onto the public. Otherwise it doesn't really make much sense. Why not test them where they work?

Because you have to be symptomatic to be tested. If you're symptomatic you're not at work.

 

[ice-is-forming]

This is how the track and trace app will work in Aus

• The Government's coronavirus app will track contact with other people, not your location
• It will automatically collect the phone number, name, age and postcode of a person you are physically near for more than 15 minutes
• This information is encrypted and stored locally on your phone. It will only be uploaded to a central government server if you test positive to coronavirus

Here's what you need to know about Australia's coronavirus tracking app

The Federal Government wants people to sign up to a new coronavirus app to track contacts. But what are the implications for you and your data?

www.abc.net.au

 

[Petcha]

She hinted at it in that Piers Morgan video by saying we need the capacity and the number of people going forward.



God that was atrocious.

I know I keep banging on about Piers Morgan. But why the FUCK isn't our national broadcaster working them over like him. Switching between the beeb and GMB is like night and day. She got away with not even being asked about the care industry at all on her radio 4 interview. She's the care minister.

They've totally screwed this up. Also, I know it was Starmer's first PMQs and a bizarre situation to find himself in but put the gloves on. Raab got a free ride.

 

[Teaboy]

This is how the track and trace app will work in Aus

• The Government's coronavirus app will track contact with other people, not your location
• It will automatically collect the phone number, name, age and postcode of a person you are physically near for more than 15 minutes
• This information is encrypted and stored locally on your phone. It will only be uploaded to a central government server if you test positive to coronavirus

Here's what you need to know about Australia's coronavirus tracking app

The Federal Government wants people to sign up to a new coronavirus app to track contacts. But what are the implications for you and your data?

www.abc.net.au

I can see low take-up for that, especially amongst the lower age groups who are already fucked off enough because they don't think this virus really applies to them much. As this is a UK thread I'll also point out that I have no faith in the UK government to build an app like this that is robust and no faith that other agencies, such as Police etc, would seek to take advantage of the data it produces.

 

[LDC]

Track and trace isn't a solution is it though? It's a tactic that has to fit within a wider strategy.

And the only strategic solutions that I can make sense that there are is either total suppression or a managed population infection/immunity until a vaccine comes available (if possible).

Both require different things to be done, and maybe the first is only possible if grabbed and acted on swiftly early on in the outbreak (like NZ). I think the reality for the UK is we have to go with 'herd immunity', just in a managed way. But it is very grim, my understanding is that there will be a very high death toll, just spread out and managed so as not to overwhelm the NHS.

Corrections please?

 

[treelover]

Eddie's last farewell: a funeral in the time of coronavirus – photo essay

This photo essay of an ex miners last days and funeral is both powerful and moving, sometimes the Guardian gets it right

 

[Part-timah]

I'm catching up with this thread again right now after my posts from last night, and I've been reading this thread daily, and other very useful/informative ones.
As it goes I have been (and still am) learning a great deal from other posters here.

Not from your post though. Cheap abuse isn't information.

Do you want me to dig out the abuse you threw at me? For having the temerity of suggesting Glasto was not going ahead this year. I better not mention its unlikely to happen next year either.

 

[Dogsauce]

So the plane from Turkey finally arrives. What a fucking circus.

I presume this was a political stunt a bit like those repatriation flights for asylum seekers where they’d spend a fortune chartering a jet, invite the media along to get it on the front page so it would look like they were doing something. Meanwhile British-made stuff is being exported for lack of orders. Clowns.

 

[FridgeMagnet]

That's an interesting point. I lived in London 30 years ago and haven't noticed a difference but that may be because it was subtle and living there full-time I didn't notice.

There are more cars on the road then thirty years ago, but if you go back further than that London was notorious for pea-souper fogs and had a lot more factories, plus more people using coal fires and chimneys etc.

The congestion charge made a massive difference (though it is getting worse again now). I was out of the country for two years when it was enacted and the change was really noticeable in central London. Of course it would have been gradual.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

This is how the track and trace app will work in Aus

• The Government's coronavirus app will track contact with other people, not your location
• It will automatically collect the phone number, name, age and postcode of a person you are physically near for more than 15 minutes
• This information is encrypted and stored locally on your phone. It will only be uploaded to a central government server if you test positive to coronavirus

Here's what you need to know about Australia's coronavirus tracking app

The Federal Government wants people to sign up to a new coronavirus app to track contacts. But what are the implications for you and your data?

www.abc.net.au

Aside from 'our government is bound to fuck it up' which has already been pointed out, the main thing that occurs to me from that is the massive divide between 15 minutes of close proximity here, and the 'you can't even go past someone in the park' message that's been put out everywhere for the last few weeks. Maybe I'm missing something but I can't see how that can be compatible?

 

[LDC]

Aside from 'our government is bound to fuck it up' which has already been pointed out, the main thing that occurs to me from that is the massive divide between 15 minutes of close proximity here, and the 'you can't even go past someone in the park' message that's been put out everywhere for the last few weeks. Maybe I'm missing something but I can't see how that can be compatible?

It will be used when social distancing rules relax. Although as I've said above, I'm not convinced it fits into the most likely strategy the UK will use. I think they're throwing everything out there in case it proves useful at some point.

 

[planetgeli]

So, Labour have been contacted by 36 UK companies all saying they've tried contacting the government about providing PPE and have not even received a reply.

What's going on here? My original question was going to be is it about cost. But if they haven't even received replies then...what the fuck is going on? And instead of these stupid long-winded questions journalists are asking at the conferences, all with get out clauses for the government, why the fuck isn't someone (no, not you Laura, don't be silly) just standing up and asking;

What the fuck is going on?

Are you just making this all up as you go along?

Because that's what I'd ask.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

It will be used when social distancing rules relax. Although as I've said above, I'm not convinced it fits into the most likely strategy the UK will use. I think they're throwing everything out there in case it proves useful at some point.

Sorry I wasn't very clear there. I didn't mean in terms of them both being in force at the same time. More that it seems to me that based on the apparent logic of the two things, either this is going to be totally useless, because anyone with the virus will have left a swathe of infection across the land before getting tested and this will pick up just a handful of people, or that all the recent angst about 2m distancing is actually a bit pointless. Maybe there's a very finely-balanced point where this could identify just about enough infected people to keep a lid on things, I don't know. But the messages look very contradictory to me.

 

[planetgeli]

So, Labour have been contacted by 36 UK companies all saying they've tried contacting the government about providing PPE and have not even received a reply.

What's going on here? My original question was going to be is it about cost. But if they haven't even received replies then...what the fuck is going on? And instead of these stupid long-winded questions journalists are asking at the conferences, all with get out clauses for the government, why the fuck isn't someone (no, not you Laura, don't be silly) just standing up and asking;

What the fuck is going on?

Are you just making this all up as you go along?

Because that's what I'd ask.

A few details of what's been offered and not even replied to.

Issa Exchange Ltd in Birmingham that told Labour it offered a quarter of a million aprons and masks.

Network Medical Products in Ripon, which says it can provide 100,000 face visors per week.

CQM Learning, which says it can provide 8,000 face shields per day.

 

[Teaboy]

So, Labour have been contacted by 36 UK companies all saying they've tried contacting the government about providing PPE and have not even received a reply.

What's going on here? My original question was going to be is it about cost. But if they haven't even received replies then...what the fuck is going on? And instead of these stupid long-winded questions journalists are asking at the conferences, all with get out clauses for the government, why the fuck isn't someone (no, not you Laura, don't be silly) just standing up and asking;

What the fuck is going on?

Are you just making this all up as you go along?

Because that's what I'd ask.

I've been thinking about this. The problem seems so simple and the solution seems so simple so I just can't work out how it has got to this stage. An interesting question would be who is in charge of the procurement of the additional PPE required? Is it the government is it part of an outsourcing chain?