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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

hegley said:
Scottish government has published their framework now, including exit strategy:
https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/strategy-plan/2020/04/coronavirus-covid-19-framework-decision-making/documents/coronavirus-covid-19-framework-decision-making/coronavirus-covid-19-framework-decision-making/govscot:document/coronavirus-covid-19-framework-decision-making.pdf
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Fans of me boring on about ECDC pandemic documents will no doubt be delighted to see that organisation mentioned in the Scottish paper:

Scotland is a responsible global citizen – an outward-facing, connected nation which listens to the advice and expertise of the World Health Organization, to the European Union and its Centre for Disease Control, and to our UK and Scottish sources of expertise, evidence and advice. It is by acting and learning with others that the most effective ongoing public health response to COVID-19 for Scotland will be found.
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killer b said:
There's a paragraph in Stephen Bush's mailout this morning (about facemasks, but I think pertinent to a lot of the wider changing strategy) which I think probably throws some light onto this.

Across the world, governments have been engaging in the same dance: the science on the benefits of mask-wearing is “finely balanced” up until the point when they become confident that they have sufficient and guaranteed supply of masks to maintain the supply into their healthcare system, at which point, who'd have thought it: it turns out masks are a sensible precaution after all!
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tbh moronically it may be that this latest delay is mostly due to Johnson being ill. If the rumours about the balance of opinion and power in cabinet are correct, it took Johnson coming back into action for Hancock's test and trace plan to become an actual plan (if that is indeed what has just happened). And it took Johnson actually getting ill, and making his pregnant girlfriend ill, for him to start taking it seriously. What a fucking shower of clowns.
 
More from the Scottish document:

The Scottish Government publishes on a daily basis: the number of new cases; number of hospitalisations; numbers requiring ICU care; and new deaths related to the virus. In recent days, there are signs that the rate of growth in new cases has slowed. This slowing has only been made possible by the actions of the public in adhering to physical distancing measures.
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Whatever happened to the ICU numbers for NHS England eh? In this respect Scotland put England to shame, since England committed a data crime - to publish those numbers for a while, and then just stop. Imagine if that had happened in some other countries, people would have gone nuts about what they were hiding or why they treated the public with such a lack of respect. Did anyone even ask why this data stopped? If not, then so much for our press holding those in power to account.

Also of interest in the Scottish document:

Screenshot 2020-04-23 at 13.02.23.png
Screenshot 2020-04-23 at 13.07.21.png
 
Ta for that. The top graph is a good one as it reveals the moment a step-change took place in cases two weeks after lockdown, about when you'd expect if lockdown is working. Maybe not as steep a change as we might have hoped for, but a very clear one nonetheless.
 
I'm not sure how much steeper it could have been, though this is in part a consequence of the fact I havent seen such graphs for any other places, I am not sued to that particular graph at all, my expectations were sort of blank going in, other than the obvious of expecting to see notable change.

A lot of the document is waffle, but here are a few other bits that caught my eye:

  • Innovative approaches to maintain and enhance physical distancing
  • Continued focus on strong hygiene practices
  • High public community awareness of symptoms and prompt action in
    response
  • Active surveillance
  • Case finding, contact tracing and quarantining
  • Shielding of clinically at risk groups
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1. Effective disease surveillance. We need to understand where the virus is and how prevalent it is.
2. Early identification and isolation of possible cases. High population awareness of symptoms, clear action on what to do if you have them, high propensity to act.
3. Early and rapid testing to confirm cases.
4. Early and effective tracing of everyone a confirmed case has been in contact with over a certain period. This will need to involve digital tools and require active support from the public, as well as support from contact tracing teams.
5. Early and sustained isolation of contacts. Chains of transmission can only be broken if those who could transmit the disease to others are isolated so they cannot do so, and get the support they need to maintain that isolation.
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We will also, with the other nations across the UK, need to carefully consider ‘port health’ – the impact of international travel on transmission of the virus. It is unlikely that we will be able to contain the virus domestically, without some form of surveillance of those coming into the country from elsewhere. We will urge the UK Government to have this as a part of their approach.
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Before this crisis we were focussed on our mission of making Scotland a greener, fairer and more prosperous country and this has not changed. But the place from where we are starting has.

The pandemic has changed the way societies and economies across the world operate and Scotland is no different. In some ways this has driven forward changes that we have already been pursuing such as using online tools to reduce the need for travel. In others it has meant radical action to change how we use our NHS or to tackle social problems such as homelessness.
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We must take these lessons into how we recover from this crisis. The austerity driven response to the 2008 financial crash did not work and worsened the inequality that was part of its cause; we must not repeat those mistakes. Inequality is also worsening the outcomes for those people impacted by the coronavirus. Our younger people deserve a fairer and more secure economic future.
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I've not seen an equivalent graph for Switzerland, but if you look at the progress of their new cases on worldometer, it's clear that their line would be steeper than that. Of course, it's all skewed as well by how many tests you're carrying out and what criteria you're using to choose whom to test.
 
From BBC Scotland live updates page at 13:24:

uk-scotland-52326197

Gary Gibbon from Channel 4 News asks whether it will only be the shielded group who will be segmented from the rest of the population. He also wonders whether it was the “wrong call” stop stop track and trace in the first place, given its importance going forward.
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Regarding track and trace, the first minister says: “We all took the best decision we could for the best reasons as we’ve gone through this uncharted territory.”

We are not through the pandemic yet, she says, though I’m sure we will learn lessons for this for the future but no government anywhere will be declaring success or victory yet.

She emphasises contact tracing will be a key part of the approach going forward.
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major news i think, at Pressers, Hancock said all essential workers and their families can now request a test, website coming onstream soon.
 
The general plan for the coming months is becoming much clearer bit by bit, and I don't mean that as a criticism of the government particularly, it is a complex situation. Daily briefing today feels much clearer around testing and tracing as a part of that too, some impressive announcements involving that as well. Clear we've passed the initial first peak as well.
 
Sue said:
As a vague aside, when did 'presser' come to mean 'press conference'? It feels like a very recent and (to my mind anyway) rubbish innovation. (See also 'staffer' which seems to mean 'member of staff' or 'employee'.) :mad:
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I got it from here!
 
Sue said:
As a vague aside, when did 'presser' come to mean 'press conference'? It feels like a very recent and (to my mind anyway) rubbish innovation. (See also 'staffer' which seems to mean 'member of staff' or 'employee'.) :mad:
Click to expand...
It's an Americanism, I think, along with 'staffer'.
 
elbows said:
Whatever happened to the ICU numbers for NHS England eh? In this respect Scotland put England to shame, since England committed a data crime - to publish those numbers for a while, and then just stop. Imagine if that had happened in some other countries, people would have gone nuts about what they were hiding or why they treated the public with such a lack of respect. Did anyone even ask why this data stopped? If not, then so much for our press holding those in power to account.
Click to expand...

Sometimes my timing in this pandemic has been surreal and I've had to question whether I had a nasty bang on the head and have been dreaming the entire thing.

The intensive care numbers returned this evening for, I believe, the first time in about 2 weeks.

Although I have to say that arent in the same form they used to be in at all, so there was still a story via the old data that has been lost to me since April 10th, but never mind.

Screenshot 2020-04-23 at 18.10.45.png
from https://assets.publishing.service.g...-23_COVID-19_Press_Conference_Slides__10_.pdf
(via Slides and datasets to accompany coronavirus press conferences )

Below is the last of the old versions for comparison. You can see that regional detail, and the actual raw numbers, are not part of the new version compared to the old. So for example for all I know, the new graph could be heavily affected by changes in critical care capacity over the period. Although Nightingale not being included ought to make that less of a phenomenon.

Screenshot 2020-04-23 at 18.15.45.png
 
Last edited:
Sue said:
As a vague aside, when did 'presser' come to mean 'press conference'? It feels like a very recent and (to my mind anyway) rubbish innovation. (See also 'staffer' which seems to mean 'member of staff' or 'employee'.) :mad:
Click to expand...

'Presser' does not belong in British English. It's like when young uns say and write 'ass' when they mean 'arse'. Schools need to address this.
 
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