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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

elbows said:
Up to you, if it were me I would probably change the 1918 bit, and maybe fiddle with some other wording so that you arent completely ruling out the possibility of it ever becoming a pandemic. Maybe there is something in the WHO FAQ's you could use instead.

WHO | FAQs: H5N1 influenza

www.who.int www.who.int
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The thing with H5N1 is that it never had sustained human to human transmission did it? If it had and had been slightly less lethal things could have been very bad indeed especially as iirc it's not that closely related to other flu.
 
Azrael said:
Our old friend "misconduct in public office" ought to do the job. Common law offence, so unlimited fine, potential sentence of life imprisonment.

The government would, of course, have to prosecute itself, and not even Grayling could be relied on to accidentally do that (probably). A different government and a bad enough crisis, who knows.

More hopeful is the GMC having a quiet word with the medical doctors who're acting as Cummings' enablers.
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Nope:

‘without reasonable excuse or justification’

The scientific advice at the time was far from unanimous, or unambiguous.
 
I find something uneasy about the government's priorities - that is to get as many retired medical workers back, as many ventilators as possible made, testing but for front line workers to get them back to work so they're not self-isolating unnecessary. Not much on policies to actually stop the spread of the virus (well apart from the lockdown)... like they want to be able to manage as high a peak as possible. I don't know if I'm expressing myself so well. But I think what I'm getting at is although they ostensibly ditched the "herd immunity" idea, for me their actions seem to say otherwise? Like they want to be able to deal with the worst cases while letting it spread.
 
smmudge said:
I find something uneasy about the government's priorities - that is to get as many retired medical workers back, as many ventilators as possible made, testing but for front line workers to get them back to work so they're not self-isolating unnecessary. Not much on policies to actually stop the spread of the virus (well apart from the lockdown)... like they want to be able to manage as high a peak as possible. I don't know if I'm expressing myself so well. But I think what I'm getting at is although they ostensibly ditched the "herd immunity" idea, for me their actions seem to say otherwise? Like they want to be able to deal with the worst cases while letting it spread.
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It's fair to be sceptical of the government's approach. I don't think there's any even vaguely sensible approach that wouldn't involve ramping up the medical capacity though.
 
smmudge said:
I find something uneasy about the government's priorities - that is to get as many retired medical workers back, as many ventilators as possible made, testing but for front line workers to get them back to work so they're not self-isolating unnecessary. Not much on policies to actually stop the spread of the virus (well apart from the lockdown)... like they want to be able to manage as high a peak as possible. I don't know if I'm expressing myself so well. But I think what I'm getting at is although they ostensibly ditched the "herd immunity" idea, for me their actions seem to say otherwise? Like they want to be able to deal with the worst cases while letting it spread.
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It's not possible to stop it spreading at this stage. Only manage the rate it does and concentrate resources where they're most needed.
Those working in the front line, hospitals, carers etc, need to know if they have it or not.
There will be many, many more cases requiring hospitilisation.
Many mmore will die
 
LynnDoyleCooper said:
Can people really stop going on about fucking recycling and composting on this thread please.

Today, 381 dead. Discuss that.
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Not so unexpected, possibly. Putting a positive spin on it, the numbers from the last few days - going down from 260 to 206 to 180 - always looked premature in terms of us hitting a peak of deaths. If we've hit a peak level of new cases (impossible to tell from the UK's woeful testing rate but new admissions to hospitals are levelling off, so we probably have) we should expect to hit a peak level in new deaths maybe 7-10 days later. Also daily figures can be erratic - you need to look at at least three days consecutively to see if there may be a pattern developing.

So this could be a step up to a new level, but it might not be as bad as a doubling in size first appears - in terms of the overall pattern, it might be something of a correction for the last two days' suspiciously low numbers. If lockdown is working, we shouldn't expect daily deaths to reduce until next week. It's going to be a rough week regardless. Again, being optimistic, hopefully this week will be the worst week.

I'm trying to stay positive!
 
littlebabyjesus said:
Not so unexpected, possibly. Putting a positive spin on it, the numbers from the last few days - going down from 260 to 206 to 180 - always looked premature in terms of us hitting a peak of deaths. If we've hit a peak level of new cases (impossible to tell from the UK's woeful testing rate but new admissions to hospitals are levelling off, so we probably have) we should expect to hit a peak level in new deaths maybe 7-10 days later. Also daily figures can be erratic - you need to look at at least three days consecutively to see if there may be a pattern developing.

So this could be a step up to a new level, but it might not be as bad as a doubling in size first appears - in terms of the overall pattern, it might be something of a correction for the last two days' suspiciously low numbers. If lockdown is working, we shouldn't expect daily deaths to reduce until next week. It's going to be a rough week regardless. Again, being optimistic, hopefully this week will be the worst week.

I'm trying to stay positive!
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I highly recommend looking at the list of data from the one day where we pretty much got to see the raw NHS press release data that isnt actually available for the general public to see unless newspapers decide to publish it in full.

Scroll down this article a bit to see it.

www.cambridge-news.co.uk

Full list of UK hospitals with new COVID-19 deaths released

The figures include the first death at Addenbrooke's Hospital, as well as another at the North West Anglia NHS Foundation Trust
www.cambridge-news.co.uk www.cambridge-news.co.uk

Just look at the range of dates of those deaths. 'deaths in the last 24 hours' (or more recently described as over a 24 hour period that ended the previous day) is often how the numbers are described, but its a highly misleading description. As such the rate of change of deaths per day is not very well reflected in the data.
 
elbows said:
I highly recommend looking at the list of data from the one day where we pretty much got to see the raw NHS press release data that isnt actually available for the general public to see unless newspapers decide to publish it in full.

Scroll down this article a bit to see it.

www.cambridge-news.co.uk

Full list of UK hospitals with new COVID-19 deaths released

The figures include the first death at Addenbrooke's Hospital, as well as another at the North West Anglia NHS Foundation Trust
www.cambridge-news.co.uk www.cambridge-news.co.uk

Just look at the range of dates of those deaths. 'deaths in the last 24 hours' (or more recently described as over a 24 hour period that ended the previous day) is often how the numbers are described, but its a highly misleading description. As such the rate of change of deaths per day is not very well reflected in the data.
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Thanks. I thought as much. Alarming as it is, we need to be careful not to get too carried away about the daily updates. * looking at self here as much as anyone *
 
Monkeygrinder's Organ said:
It's fair to be sceptical of the government's approach. I don't think there's any even vaguely sensible approach that wouldn't involve ramping up the medical capacity though.
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not any more there isn't, and it wasn't government policy anyway despite how often the government referred to it
 
Jesus christ LinkedIn is depressing right now in my industry. Any job that does pop up is greeted by thousands of applications and the number of even very senior people fishing around for work is even more depressing. We're fucked. This is unreal. All the recruitment consultants I used to get work with seem to have lost their jobs too. And I really can't see it recovering for a very, very long time. Nobody's got any budget for hires.
 
Petcha said:
Jesus christ LinkedIn is depressing right now in my industry. Any job that does pop up is greeted by thousands of applications and the number of even very senior people fishing around for work is even more depressing. We're fucked. This is unreal. All the recruitment consultants I used to get work with seem to have lost their jobs too. And I really can't see it recovering for a very, very long time. Nobody's got any budget for hires.
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Have you considered working on a Help Desk? :hmm:
 
planetgeli said:
www.bbc.co.uk

Coronavirus: Why are the Gwent valleys a hotspot?

Why are there more cases of coronavirus in the Aneurin Bevan health board area?
www.bbc.co.uk

Fairly interesting article about Gwent, the possible reasons for it being a hot spot, other hot spots, and the transmission that is going from East to West meaning I'm not going to be living in an outlier much longer. :(
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Yeah! It's edging from Bridgend to Swansea...I'm just hoping it's got a really crappy roadmap, gets to St Clears, and heads for Haverfordwest oblivious of the existence of my little corner of heaven here in Laugharne. I mean, it's not on the way anywhere, what would be the point in its coming here? :D
 
littlebabyjesus said:
Thanks. I thought as much. Alarming as it is, we need to be careful not to get too carried away about the daily updates. * looking at self here as much as anyone *
Click to expand...

If they keep publishing the hospital admission data that they have used in very recent press conferences then we will have something more timely and properly dated to go by.

www.gov.uk

Slides and datasets to accompany coronavirus press conference: 30 March 2020

Press conference slides and datasets used by Sir Patrick Vallance.
www.gov.uk www.gov.uk

After previously being reduced to squinting at small images of that data in slide form that the press used yesterday, I was pleased to see that it is available on a spreadsheet. At least the data used yesterday is.
 
littlebabyjesus said:
Well hopefully it is! That's what the lockdown is for. What we can't do is undo the spreading that happened pre-lockdown, whose effects are what we see now in terms of serious cases and deaths.
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No, it's obviously going to continue spreading for months. The lock down is an attempt to slow it whilst the NHS copes with the most severe cases. But people will still be susceptible to Covid19 for a long time to come, after lock down ends.
 
xenon said:
No, it's obviously going to continue spreading for months. The lock down is an attempt to slow it whilst the NHS copes with the most severe cases. But people will still be susceptible to Covid19 for a long time to come, after lock down ends.
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Oh ok. I misunderstood, sorry. The ambition is to reduce the number of people with it dramatically, though.
 
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