Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[littlebabyjesus]

One thing that's doubtless been discussed above but I was thinking about today. For the 'herd immunity' to be a successful thing the government would have had to isolate all the vulnerable people from pretty well day one.

Then, all the people who wouldn't be badly affected could spread it around happily amongst themselves to build up the herd immunity. As it was, they let the virus rip through the whole population, so we have the needless killing a lot of vulnerable people. And of course nurses and doctors who didn't have proper PPE equipment.

I think you're making the mistake here of thinking that they had thought that through. It's almost more shit than what we have now, though. Hey, old and sick people, shut yourselves away, don't contact your friends or family at all for the next six months. Fuck that's rough.

I was thinking today of my friend who died from the flu last year when in final stages of cancer. If he'd stayed away from people, he might have lived another couple of (very poor quality) months. But fuck, I'm sure he would never have wanted that. Gimme a hug and fuck it if I catch something.

 

[two sheds]

I think you're making the mistake here of thinking that they had thought that through. It's almost more shit than what we have now, though. Hey, old and sick people, shut yourselves away, don't contact your friends or family at all for the next six months. Fuck that's rough.

True, but pretty well what we've got now.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

True, but pretty well what we've got now.

Kind of. Easier to do if everyone has to. And this won't last six months.

 

[two sheds]

Kind of. Easier to do if everyone has to. And this won't last six months.

Dunno, I for one am not coming out until they've got a vaccine and some vaguely successful treatment.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Dunno, I for one am not coming out until they've got a vaccine and some vaguely successful treatment.

Fair enough. You do live in the sticks, mind. Harder to do that if you live in a city.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

My hope is getting a test scaled up quickly so that we can all be tested. That way you should be able to venture out cautiously before the vaccine.

 

[two sheds]

I want my own tester so I can go out and aim it at everyone I come across to know who I should avoid.

 

[Aladdin]

Didnt take long. Day 3 of lockdown and the joyriders are out doing wheelies and racing like mad.
Its been months since they were around.

 

[weltweit]

I thought the NHS CEO was a little lacking when he thanked the doctors and nurses for their work in getting the Nightingale hospital ready and failed to thank anyone else.

He omitted to mention the army and the absolute army of electricians and other workers who actually built the place out and connected everything up and of course the bed suppliers who had to have done some work to magic up 500 beds at short notice etc etc ..

 

[Azrael]

One thing that's doubtless been discussed above but I was thinking about today. For the 'herd immunity' to be a successful thing the government would have had to isolate all the vulnerable people from pretty well day one.

Then, all the people who wouldn't be badly affected could spread it around happily amongst themselves to build up the herd immunity. As it was, they let the virus rip through the whole population, so we have the needless killing a lot of vulnerable people. And of course nurses and doctors who didn't have proper PPE equipment.

On practical grounds alone this would be impossible: given the risk to the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions, the numbers to be "shielded" would be way above the government's estimates, possibly in the tens of millions. And even if you somehow did that, rich preppers and Howard Hughes excepted, people don't live in level four containment facilities. Many would inevitably get infected by asymptomatic delivery drivers, carers, and other visitors. You'd have to lock down every care home and have staff live on site: even then, just takes one to trigger a cluster.

That's without getting started on the psychological and economic tolls.

And if you don't know where the virus is, when the survivors are released, could all kick off again.

Thinking about this stuff in depth is one helluva rabbit hole ...

 

[littlebabyjesus]

On practical grounds alone this would be impossible: given the risk to the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions, the numbers to be "shielded" would be way above the government's estimates, possibly in the tens of millions. And even if you somehow did that, rich preppers and Howard Hughes excepted, people don't live in level four containment facilities. Many would inevitably get infected by asymptomatic delivery drivers, carers, and other visitors. You'd have to lock down every care home and have staff live on site: even then, just takes one to trigger a cluster.

That's without getting started on the psychological and economic tolls.

And if you don't know where the virus is, when the survivors are released, could all kick off again.

Thinking about this stuff in depth is one helluva rabbit hole ...

A month ago I admit I wasn't paying this stuff as much attention as I should have been, and not heeding the warnings I had read. But it's not my job to pay it attention. It beggars belief now that 'let it rip' was ever even on the table as a possible policy, given what they already knew.

 

[Azrael]

A month ago I admit I wasn't paying this stuff as much attention as I should have been, and not heeding the warnings I had read. But it's not my job to pay it attention. It beggars belief now that 'let it rip' was ever even on the table as a possible policy, given what they already knew.

What comes from following a model built around a completely different disease!

 

[Cid]

I want my own tester so I can go out and aim it at everyone I come across to know who I should avoid.

That is actually not far off what they did in Korea. I mean obviously you can’t spot test people around you, but very extensive testing plus their 100 meter app is as close as you get.

Also, yeah on the herd immunity thing. That’s what I never got about that policy. Just this assumption that 10-20% of the population would just shut themselves away for 6 months. No policy in place for funding, food delivery, exercise. No attention to the fact of how fundamentally bizarre it would be... I mean, sure, it’s weird now... but you’re not looking out the window seeing everything going on as it was around you.

 

[Azrael]

Cid

"Shielding" always tokenism: if they were serious about it, we'd have seen wartime level planning for months, coupled with a public info campaign that'd dwarf the spaffing over Brexit. Just PR to sell their "herd immunity" experiment to the public at minimum cost (to them).

 

[Cid]

On practical grounds alone this would be impossible: given the risk to the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions, the numbers to be "shielded" would be way above the government's estimates, possibly in the tens of millions. And even if you somehow did that, rich preppers and Howard Hughes excepted, people don't live in level four containment facilities. Many would inevitably get infected by asymptomatic delivery drivers, carers, and other visitors. You'd have to lock down every care home and have staff live on site: even then, just takes one to trigger a cluster.

That's without getting started on the psychological and economic tolls.

And if you don't know where the virus is, when the survivors are released, could all kick off again.

Thinking about this stuff in depth is one helluva rabbit hole ...

And that of course... I mean... allocate 50% of NHS workers to full isolation maybe? And their families. Because of course those most vulnerable are also those most likely to need healthcare. Eventual result probably being a massive public health crisis anyway - mental health, physical health.

 

[Part-timah]

Maybe, but how do you know?

The science of psychology.

 

[Wilf]

One thing that's doubtless been discussed above but I was thinking about today. For the 'herd immunity' to be a successful thing the government would have had to isolate all the vulnerable people from pretty well day one.

Then, all the people who wouldn't be badly affected could spread it around happily amongst themselves to build up the herd immunity. As it was, they let the virus rip through the whole population, so we have the needless killing a lot of vulnerable people. And of course nurses and doctors who didn't have proper PPE equipment.

I've read up on very little of the science (aka none ) but I remember posting at the level of common sense when the herd immunity thing was raised by vallance (?). It smacked of some kind of weird abstract modelling, totally devoid of any sense of how life works. Even more so, the notion that government could turn the tap of cases on and off to suit the capabilities of intensive care capacity was ridiculous. Government's don't have that degree of control over life, even in a 'democracy'. Andthat's not that they don't have enough powers, it's more that life, communities and human behaviour can't be finely tuned. Oh, yeah, and the absence of a vaccine. Must admit, without naming names (I can't actually remember who, anyway) I was surprised that a couple of people on here seemed to think it was an intriguing idea or was plausible.

 

[Azrael]

I've read up on very little of the science (aka none ) but I remember posting at the level of common sense when the herd immunity thing was raised by vallance (?). It smacked of some kind of weird abstract modelling, totally devoid of any sense of how life works. Even more so, the notion that government could turn the tap of cases on and off to suit the capabilities of intensive care capacity was ridiculous. Government's don't have that degree of control over life, even in a 'democracy'. Andthat's not that they don't have enough powers, it's more that life, communities and human behaviour can't be finely tuned. Oh, yeah, and the absence of a vaccine. Must admit, without naming names (I can't actually remember who, anyway) I was surprised that a couple of people on here seemed to think it was an intriguing idea or was plausible.

I assume they took "herd immunity" to mean natural immunity, in which case, yes, it'll likely develop from an epidemic (how well, how widespread and how long no-one seems to know yet). Problem with that is it presupposes that an epidemic's inevitable, a fatalistic attitude that's alienated me from the start and continues to do so.

Our ancestors who had no choice but to endure unchecked pestilence would think us mad to have the tools to fight it, but to lay down our arms without trying. Our more recent forebears who achieved so much more with less would be certain of it.

 

[Wilf]

And this won't last six months.

Do you mean the lockdown won't last 6 months? If you did, that's my guess as well. Apart from there being an element of expectation management in play with the 6 months, several things will work in a positive direction (they finally manage to do a bit of testing; the antibody test for medics and then maybe for larger groups; early launch of a vaccine/treatment options to bring people back from the brink, increased intensive care/dedicated treatment centres). Offset against that is the possibility of the NHS getting overwhelmed in the short term.
Providing this doesn't run out of control in the latter scenario, various issues will push government into finding an exit strategy. Things like concerns about every other medical condition being neglected; the staggering cost of the whole thing and a law of diminishing returns with people breaching the lockdown in 2 months or so. At that point they'll just about convince themselves the NHS is resilient enough to stand a wave of reinfections and we'll all start drifting back to work, the park etc.
I can see something like the above leading to government taking us out of lockdown (not least to claim some political credit) though whether that actually kills of the virus is a another matter.

 

[Part-timah]

I thought the NHS CEO was a little lacking when he thanked the doctors and nurses for their work in getting the Nightingale hospital ready and failed to thank anyone else.

He omitted to mention the army and the absolute army of electricians and other workers who actually built the place out and connected everything up and of course the bed suppliers who had to have done some work to magic up 500 beds at short notice etc etc ..

Thanking medical staff is part of communication tasks for pandemic planning.

 

[Wilf]

Our ancestors who had no choice but to endure unchecked pestilence would think us mad to have the tools to fight it, but to lay down our arms without trying. Our more recent forebears who achieved so much more with less would be certain of it.

Edward III: 'I have visited Black Death victims and shook them all by the hand'

 

[Azrael]

Do you mean the lockdown won't last 6 months? If you did, that's my guess as well. Apart from there being an element of expectation management in play with the 6 months, several things will work in a positive direction (they finally manage to do a bit of testing; the antibody test for medics and then maybe for larger groups; early launch of a vaccine/treatment options to bring people back from the brink, increased intensive care/dedicated treatment centres). Offset against that is the possibility of the NHS getting overwhelmed in the short term.
Providing this doesn't run out of control in the latter scenario, various issues will push government into finding an exit strategy. Things like concerns about every other medical condition being neglected; the staggering cost of the whole thing and a law of diminishing returns with people breaching the lockdown in 2 months or so. At that point they'll just about convince themselves the NHS is resilient enough to stand a wave of reinfections and we'll all start drifting back to work, the park etc.
I can see something like the above leading to government taking us out of lockdown (not least to claim some political credit) though whether that actually kills of the virus is a another matter.

The six month timeline's down to the deputy CMO, who, with her immediate boss and his immediate bosses quarantined to experience their own bracing dose of herd immunity, appears to be running the government ATM. It's exactly the kinda impractical measure you'd expect a non-politician to blurt out, and appears rooted in her bizarre prejudice against even considering the South Korean approach.

With even the Daily Boris bellowing about ending the lockdown, I don't expect her to be able to Canute her way through this for much longer.

 

[bimble]

Is it a conspiracy theory to not believe them when they say -literally - that they didn’t get the email inviting UK to join in the EU procurement and that’s why we have to build our own?

Shockingly it turns out this was a blatant and really rubbish lie. Who'd have thunk it etc.

UK discussed joint EU plan to buy Covid-19 medical supplies, say officials

Exclusive: EU minutes seen by the Guardian reveal British official took part in eight EU health security meetings on coronavirus crisis

www.theguardian.com

 

[Doodler]

The science of psychology.

Looks better this way:

The Science ... of Psychology!

 

[gentlegreen]

Shockingly it turns out this was a blatant and really rubbish lie. Who'd have thunk it etc.

UK discussed joint EU plan to buy Covid-19 medical supplies, say officials

Exclusive: EU minutes seen by the Guardian reveal British official took part in eight EU health security meetings on coronavirus crisis

www.theguardian.com

To be fair, BJ was focussed on the really important job of "getting !"£$%^ done" and thus securing his place in history ...

 

[Miss-Shelf]

I've read up on very little of the science (aka none ) but I remember posting at the level of common sense when the herd immunity thing was raised by vallance (?). It smacked of some kind of weird abstract modelling, totally devoid of any sense of how life works. Even more so, the notion that government could turn the tap of cases on and off to suit the capabilities of intensive care capacity was ridiculous. Government's don't have that degree of control over life, even in a 'democracy'. Andthat's not that they don't have enough powers, it's more that life, communities and human behaviour can't be finely tuned. Oh, yeah, and the absence of a vaccine. Must admit, without naming names (I can't actually remember who, anyway) I was surprised that a couple of people on here seemed to think it was an intriguing idea or was plausible.

My own GP told me it was a good idea FFS
Changing my doctor after this

 

[zahir]

British Medical Journal editorial.

Covid-19: why is the UK government ignoring WHO’s advice?

Testing and tracing must resume urgently On 24 February, there were nine confirmed cases of covid-19 in the UK. On the same day, the World Health Organization recommended countries outside China with imported cases or outbreaks “prioritize active, exhaustive case finding and immediate testing...

www.bmj.com

Some comments on the institutional difficulties in applying test and trace in the UK.

EU Referendum

eureferendum.com

 

[weltweit]

Smiths to ramp up Covid-19 ventilator output

The Ventilator Challenge UK Consortium, which includes Airbus, Ford, Rolls-Royce and Thales, will work with the Smiths Group to ensure the supply of over 10,000 paraPAC plus ventilators.

Production is being ramped up at Smiths from hundreds a month to thousands in response to the UK government’s challenge to UK technology and engineering businesses to help save lives in the Covid-19 pandemic.

Already certified and used extensively in the UK and abroad, the paraPAC plus is a lightweight and portable ventilator that delivers oxygen to the lungs to help patients breathe.

from https://www.theengineer.co.uk/covid-19-ventilators-smiths-ventilator-challenge-uk/

 

[brogdale]

Something hideously emblematic of the tories' shitshow of a response to the pandemic about NHS workers being gagged from speaking out about not being properly masked.

Some sort of nadir?

 

[sptme]

I need data help.

It seems likely that the daily figures from NHS England, which breaks them down by hospital trust and includes dates of death, are being sent out as a press release which is not published online. I need this data. Sometimes, via the PA, local newspapers are publishing all the info in full, but I cannot rely on this happening every day and its messing up my ability to collate local data. If anyone can provide me with this data, or knows of someone else who is collating it online with the proper date of death info intact, please get in touch.

Maybe this will be useful

Hospital deaths falling at fastest rate yet

Deaths from covid-19 in England's hospitals are declining at the fastest rate yet, as the whole South West region sees one death in seven days.

www.hsj.co.uk