Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[BlanketAddict]

181 deaths the day before. Oh dear that rate of increase is terrifying.

I'm not great with numbers.

Does that mean essentially 1 in 17 of those that have been admitted to hospital and tested positive have died?

Working on approx 17k positive with approx 1k dying.

 

[bumpkinbeans]

bumpkinbeans and welcome.

Hello my friend hope you are well

 

[bumpkinbeans]

Shit really sorry to hear that, bumpkinbeans. Employer and doctor are both cunts. I say stay away if you don't feel safe going in. Hope your boss does the right thing.

We will see but its a nasty company these days and staff are all disposable

 

[bumpkinbeans]

Size of that excell hospital in london is scary. The storm about to hit us in the uk is serious and very scary and so fast moving its overwhelming.

 

[zahir]

Advice on protective gear for NHS staff was rejected owing to cost

Exclusive: DoH dismissed call for eye protection – now needed for coronavirus – in 2017

www.theguardian.com

Documents show that officials working under former health secretary Jeremy Hunt told medical advisers three years ago to “reconsider” a formal recommendation that eye protection should be provided to all healthcare professionals who have close contact with pandemic influenza patients.

The expert advice was watered down after an “economic assessment” found a medical recommendation about providing visors or safety glasses to all hospital, ambulance and social care staff who have close contact with pandemic influenza patients would “substantially increase” the costs of stockpiling.

The documents may help explain a devastating shortage of protective gear in the NHS that is hampering efforts by medical staff to manage the Covid-19 virus pandemic.

 

[TopCat]

Size of that excell hospital in london is scary. The storm about to hit us in the uk is serious and very scary and so fast moving its overwhelming.

Whys that then?

 

[elbows]

Coronavirus: new figures on intensive care deaths revealed

Findings of new report raise concerns about how effective new facilities will be

www.theguardian.com

The mortality rate for patients put in intensive care after being infected with Covid-19 is running at close to 50%, a report has revealed.

Data from the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (ICNARC) showed that of 165 patients treated in critical care in England, Wales and Northern Ireland since the end of February, 79 died, while 86 survived and were discharged. The figures were taken from an audit of 775 people who have been or are in critical care with the disease, across 285 intensive care units. The remaining 610 patients continue to receive intensive care.

The report also found that though the majority of those who have died from coronavirus across the UK were over 70, nine of the 79 who died in intensive care were aged between 16 and 49, as were 28 of the 86 who survived.

The audit suggested that men are at much higher risk from the virus – seven in ten of all ICU patients were male, while 30% of men in critical care were under 60, compared to just 15% of women. Excess weight also appears to be a significant risk factor; over 70% of patients were overweight, obese or clinically obese on the body mass index scale.

 

[elbows]

Also from the same article:

The high death rate raises questions about how effective critical care will be in saving the lives of people struck down by the disease. As a top priority, the NHS is opening field hospitals in London, Birmingham and Manchester, which will incorporate some of the biggest critical care units ever seen in Britain.

“The truth is that quite a lot of these individuals [in critical care] are going to die anyway and there is a fear that we are just ventilating them for the sake of it, for the sake of doing something for them, even though it won’t be effective. That’s a worry,” one doctor said.

Well, maybe when talking about that dont forget to focus on all those it did save rather than all those it didnt help.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

One note on that 70 per cent overweight, national statistics records that 64 per cent of the English population is overweight, obese or clinically obese on the body mass index scale.

 

[weltweit]

Still no unassailable logic as to why men are dying more than women?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Still no unassailable logic as to why men are dying more than women?

Shit genes.

It's the most likely explanation as it appears to be a worldwide pattern. Just the one X chromosome, no back-up copies of important genes to do with immune response. Women are often more resilient in conditions of extreme deprivation for similar reasons. My money would be on that.

 

[gentlegreen]

French expert earlier suggesting the "median age for successful recoveryl in ICU" is 58.
I can't find it explained anywhere...

Elysée Facebook PM's press conference today.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

French expert earlier suggesting the "median age for successful recoveryl in ICU" is 58.
I can't find it explained anywhere...

Elysée Facebook PM's press conference today.

What do you want explained?

 

[gentlegreen]

What do you want explained?

Seemed to suggest that as many people under 58 would die as over 58 ?

First expert - approx 6 mins in.

 

[elbows]

I recommend looking at the report that Guardian article about UK intensive care patient data was based on.

report

As for the question, I dont know, I'm mostly not watching videos.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Seemed to suggest that as many people under 58 would die as over 58 ?

First expert - approx 6 mins in.

No, it means as many people under 58 will recover as over 58. There may be many more people over 58 dying.

EG: You might have 100 people in ICU, 80 over 58, 20 under 58. If 40 people recover, including all those under 58, that makes the median age of recovery 58, but every single death will be over 58.

 

[gentlegreen]

I recommend looking at the report that Guardian article about UK intensive care patient data was based on.

report

As for the question, I dont know, I'm mostly not watching videos.

Bloody hell that's grim.
I'm a fit, but moderately overweight 60 year old with BP 10 points over ideal

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Bloody hell that's grim.
I'm a fit, but moderately overweight 60 year old with BP 10 points over ideal

By c19 standards, you're still relatively young. You're fit, which is a biggie. And weight is only slightly indicated as a risk factor by those raw numbers - 70 per cent vs 64 per cent in the general population. Being male is way more important.

 

[elbows]

Bloody hell that's grim.
I'm a fit, but moderately overweight 60 year old with BP 10 points over ideal

Although please do note that with a report like that which focuses only on intensive care, its important to balance what it says with info from elsewhere about all the cases that share some of the characteristics mentioned, but never end up anywhere close to intensive care.

 

[gentlegreen]

I will probably risk the supermarket for more veggies then.
Several doctors recently stressing it's all about hand washing rather than airborne risks... Though one biologist has bought a pile of bandanas.
Pretty sure I'm not a carrier.

 

[Hollis]

people were posting this on facebook the other day as if it was satire... after reading that story I'm not sure.

View attachment 203797

It can't be much longer before joggers are spotted flying over rooftops on broomsticks.

 

[editor]

Comes to something when a fetish wear company are so angry that they have to let rip at the government

Fetish company donates its entire 'medical' clothing stock to the NHS to help fight coronavirus

You know things are bad when the NHS is asking a medical fetishwear company to donate clothing.No, you aren’t living in a simulation, this is actually happening. A medical fetish store has tweeted to say that it is donating its entire stock of hospital scrubs to the NHS to help fight...

www.indy100.com

 

[Wilf]

French expert earlier suggesting the "median age for successful recoveryl in ICU" is 58.

Phew!

 

[Wilf]

Looks like we are heading for a stricter lockdown:

Boris Johnson to warn UK: tougher lockdown may be necessary

Outbreak will get worse before it gets better, PM tells nation as death toll hits 1,000

www.theguardian.com

Our hand shaking PM will be writing to us.

Not sure what the stricter conditions will be? Stopping the one form of exercise? Banning all forms of work outside of war work? More powers for plod? A curfew?

Seems to me the govt not only should have started all this 10 days earlier and the testing even earlier still, but they should have had some kind of strategy for spreading the message. There's johnson's spectacular lack of consistency, from happy birthday through to a lockdown, but also no real sense of how to get the message out, how to reinforce it, how to use existing institutions. 'Behavioural nudges', lol.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Looks like we are heading for a stricter lockdown:

Boris Johnson to warn UK: tougher lockdown may be necessary

Outbreak will get worse before it gets better, PM tells nation as death toll hits 1,000

www.theguardian.com

Our hand shaking PM will be writing to us.

Not sure what the stricter conditions will be? Stopping the one form of exercise? Banning all forms of work outside of war work? More powers for plod? A curfew?

Seems to me the govt not only should have started all this 10 days earlier and the testing even earlier still, but they should have had some kind of strategy for spreading the message. There's johnson's spectacular lack of consistency, from happy birthday through to a lockdown, but also no real sense of how to get the message out, how to reinforce it, how to use existing institutions. 'Behavioural nudges', lol.

I'd like to see the evidence base for a stricter lockdown, tbh. Stopping construction, etc, sure, that's going to reduce social contact, but stopping people going for walks? Is that going to add anything? This was always going to get worse before it got better even where social distancing measures are working. We've known that for a while now. Getting tough now strikes me as mostly about looking tough as the numbers get bad rather than actually making a material difference. There was too little early on, now there's a danger of too much too late.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Also, lol at the 'PM tells nation' crap. Like we didn't already know.

 

[mauvais]

No, it means as many people under 58 will recover as over 58. There may be many more people over 58 dying.

EG: You might have 100 people in ICU, 80 over 58, 20 under 58. If 40 people recover, including all those under 58, that makes the median age of recovery 58, but every single death will be over 58.

Pedantry perhaps but this isn't necessarily right - the median age could be 58. Whether it actually is or not depends on the distribution of ages.

 

[Wilf]

I'd like to see the evidence base for a stricter lockdown, tbh. Stopping construction, etc, sure, that's going to reduce social contact, but stopping people going for walks? Is that going to add anything? This was always going to get worse before it got better even where social distancing measures are working. We've known that for a while now. Getting tough now strikes me as mostly about looking tough as the numbers get bad rather than actually making a material difference. There was too little early on, now there's a danger of too much too late.

Fully agree, it very much feels like being seen to do something. I'm not sure about the exercise thing, I've been out walking for the last 3/4 days, mainly in the afternoons. There are probably more walkers/joggers/families on bikes and sometimes it's quite difficult to get more than a pavements's width away. Hard to say if that's risky or not. But yeah, on the wider point I'd prefer to see more effort to get existing measures working properly. That's not just stopping idiots acting as if nothing had happened it really is about getting a mindset out there. TBH, at the moment, the shops and supermarkets are the riskiest areas of life in the UK, for shoppers and, even more so, staff. To make real changes in terms of the layout of shops, improving online services and getting more vans/drivers is very 'logistical', but is probably the one single thing government could do to make a difference.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Pedantry perhaps but this isn't necessarily right - the median age could be 58. Whether it actually is or not depends on the distribution of ages.

That's massive pedantry. Alright, in that mix, there are two people who are actually 58, numbers 20 and 21 respectively of the survivors, as they are all lined up.

 

[Wilf]

Also, lol at the 'PM tells nation' crap. Like we didn't already know.

His own contribution has been to go into the hospitals, get the virus on his own sweaty mits and then take it back out into the country. Churchillian.