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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

I got a text from my dentist on Thursday as I had a check up booked on Monday. Message was, if you have a cough / cold / related symptons, please think of others and reschedule your appointment.

Still got an annoying cough / cold, on it's way out though, so I was happy to do TBF.
 
xenon said:
Just usual clickbate shite. Find someone to say something tactless and controversial, cue tweeting outrage etc.

I mean of course hospitals would function better if most of those occupying wards died. But you know, it's not an outcome anyone with an ounce of humanity would actually work towards and saying it just makes you look like a calass monser.
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It's the sort of joke that nurses and doctors make all the time which has its place when you work with people dying around you frequently

Probably wrong audience
 
I'm trying to forsee if it will happen in the UK and if so when, and also what kind of thing we can expect

I read on a thread here we are about 11 days behind northern Italy in terms of case numbers. As of today northern italy is in 'lockdown'

Reported as "The lockdown decree includes the power to impose fines on anyone caught entering or leaving Lombardy, the worst-affected region, until 3 April (**from today thats a period of near enough a month). It provides for the banning of all public events, closing cinemas, theatres, gyms, discos and pubs. Religious ceremonies such as funerals and weddings will also be prohibited, and leave for healthcare workers has been cancelled. "

Id like to see more precise details on the rules.

I appreciate each national response is dependent on its politicians, and the likes of Johnson will be more unwilling to have a lockdown than others, but does anyone feel confident enough to predict/estimate when such a lockdown might hit the UK (and for work reasons Im particularly interested in London)
 
I guess there are a lot of factors at play. The 11 day thing elbows posted (with caveats) was just numbers. We're not the same as Italy I imagine - for many reasons. Yesterday's jump of new reported cases here at the same stage for Italy was about 40%, here was 26%. But a lot depends on how many are being tested, who's got it but hasn't, where they are, how much individuals and authorities are taking measures, etc. I don't think it's possible to predict much at this point.
 
Worth watching Dr. Chris Witty present to the Health and Care Committee on 5th March as he talks about the planning and thought that goes into some of the factors for moving to this stage.

 
S☼I said:
I guess there are a lot of factors at play. The 11 day thing elbows posted (with caveats) was just numbers. We're not the same as Italy I imagine - for many reasons. Yesterday's jump of new reported cases here at the same stage for Italy was about 40%, here was 26%. But a lot depends on how many are being tested, who's got it but hasn't, where they are, how much individuals and authorities are taking measures, etc. I don't think it's possible to predict much at this point.
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11 days is quite a specific number...but howabout saying within 2-3 weeks then? a reasonable assumption?

I guess it will become clearer with each passing day, but i need to make preperations (not bog roll related ones ;) )
 
ska invita said:
2 hours long and im commuting! any key points?
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ska invita

Fatality rate 1% or less (quite different to what the WHO say).
Caution with the move to close things down but some of them coming soon.
Most people will be fine, even the old.
Pack in smoking.
Kids mostly OK, but not sure if they carry it with no symptoms, or just don't get it.
Likely to be a short period of intense infection.
Chance of it being a significant outbreak in the UK now almost certain.
No chance of a vaccine in the next year or so.
Hope that some current drugs we have will help the very ill.
During the time of worse infection rates the NHS will look very different to how it does now.
No need to stockpile anything currently.
Top end of worse case possible prediction is bad.
 
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Miss-Shelf said:
It's the sort of joke that nurses and doctors make all the time which has its place when you work with people dying around you frequently

Probably wrong audience
Click to expand...

Fair point, I didn't actually read the article. Website bogs my computer down.
 
LynnDoyleCooper said:
ska invita

Fatality rate 1% or less (quite different to what the WHO say).
Caution with the move to close things down but some of them coming soon.
Most people will be fine, even the old.
Pack in smoking.
Kids mostly OK, but not sure if they carry it with no symptoms, or just don't get it.
Likely to be a short period of intense infection.
Chance of it being a significant outbreak in the UK now almost certain.
No chance of a vaccine in the next year or so.
Hope that some current drugs we have will help the very ill.
During the time of worse infection rates the NHS will look very different to how it does now.
No need to stockpile anything currently.
Click to expand...
thanks for that. the key thing im interested in though is "Chance of it being a significant outbreak in the UK now almost certain" <<<therefore will there be a lockdown and can we predict when
 
xenon said:
Suspend the house of lords.
Push through emergency legislation.
evil laugh
Click to expand...
It's an ideal virus for a right-wing, authoritarian take over init?

Suspend Parliament.
Emergency legislation.
Restrict travel.
Ban gatherings.
Slim down the NHS to only deal with coronavirus
Reduce police force to only 'essential services' - probably means protecting property.
Advice to not use cash - all purchases now traceable
Rationing tinfoil sales :hmm:
 
S☼I said:
I guess there are a lot of factors at play. The 11 day thing elbows posted (with caveats) was just numbers. We're not the same as Italy I imagine - for many reasons. Yesterday's jump of new reported cases here at the same stage for Italy was about 40%, here was 26%. But a lot depends on how many are being tested, who's got it but hasn't, where they are, how much individuals and authorities are taking measures, etc. I don't think it's possible to predict much at this point.
Click to expand...

What was the 11 days thing? I dont remember it. I would have posted plenty of stuff that suggested using Italy as a guide to what will happen elsewhere, but I would not have made a precise claim about 11 days myself. Its quite possible I quoted somebody or something that did make that claim, but I dont remember and would like to see it.

As for the whole 'we are not the same as Italy' thing, as far as I'm concerned people who want to cling to that thought need to suggest some actual reasons why they think our fate is going to be any different. It certainly wont be down to stringent measures because we havent had any. Although that last point is looking to the past, its always possible we will act more decisively and strongly than Italy at some key stage, but most signs so far is that we are going to wait till the first epidemic wave is clearly kicking off before we do the heavy stuff.
 
ska invita said:
thanks for that. the key thing im interested in though is "Chance of it being a significant outbreak in the UK now almost certain" <<<therefore will there be a lockdown and can we predict when
Click to expand...

He said that there's not going to be a moment when everything changes and an announcement is made. The phases overlap, and it'll be a gradual response moving from one phase to the next, and that might be different in different parts of the UK.
 
ska invita said:
particularly am working on an event for about 500 people end of March, wondering if its going to get pulled
Click to expand...

My take on it is that they're being very cautious about banning and closing things down, and something that size won't be affected by any announcement or measures put in place in the forseeable. My prediction is they'll make it more like a recommendation at first, and might restrict people over a certain age groups (over 70 has been mentioned) from attending certain events. Whether people will stop going to such events anyway is hard to predict.

I think they're wary of closing things down for 2 reasons, firstly that it's not that sustainable so it has to be timed carefully to be of maximum value. Secondly they're very worried about the economic impact of any measures.
 
i think this is the 11days behind post
www.urban75.net

Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more

Given the rate of increase in infection and our knowledge of the progress of the virus in China, Japan, Korea, Italy and Japan how long before we enter lockdown in some communities? This expert makes for a sombre viewing. If you look at Italy's numbers, they've got around 4k infections...
www.urban75.net www.urban75.net

Fez909 said:
If you look at Italy's numbers, they've got around 4k infections currently. It's taken 11 days to get there from the position we're in.

If you look at how they got there, their figures grew by about 40% a day for about half that time, then 20%-25% since then.

We're currently growing at 40% a day, so we're matching Italy at the equivalent point in time in their outbreak.

I plotted these numbers and this is what it looks like for the UK:

Friday, 6 March 2020163
Saturday, 7 March 2020228
Sunday, 8 March 2020319
Monday, 9 March 2020447
Tuesday, 10 March 2020626
Wednesday, 11 March 2020877
Thursday, 12 March 20201227
Friday, 13 March 20201473
Saturday, 14 March 20201767
Sunday, 15 March 20202121
Monday, 16 March 20202545
Tuesday, 17 March 20203054
Wednesday, 18 March 20203665
Thursday, 19 March 20204398
Friday, 20 March 20205277
Saturday, 21 March 20206333
Sunday, 22 March 20207599
Monday, 23 March 20209119
Tuesday, 24 March 202010943
Wednesday, 25 March 202013131
Thursday, 26 March 202015758

Obviously lots of caveats on this: This assumes we don't do anything and carry on as we are now. We know that if things get this bad then additional measures will be taken.

It also assumed that the growth rate stays at 20% after an initial fall, but we only have Italy to go on there. Our growth rates might be higher or lower. We don't know.

etc., etc.
Click to expand...
 
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LynnDoyleCooper said:
My take on it is that they're being very cautious about banning and closing things down, and something that size won't be affected by any announcement or measures put in place in the forseeable. My prediction is they'll make it more like a recommendation at first, and might restrict people over a certain age groups (over 70 has been mentioned) from attending certain events. Whether people will stop going to such events anyway is hard to predict.

I think they're wary of closing things down for 2 reasons, firstly that it's not that sustainable so it has to be timed carefully to be of maximum value. Secondly they're very worried about the economic impact of any measures.
Click to expand...
i totally appreciate that. But theyve just banned such events in Milan and other Italian cities - no reason why not in UK cities
 
LynnDoyleCooper said:
My take on it is that they're being very cautious about banning and closing things down, and something that size won't be affected by any announcement or measures put in place in the forseeable. My prediction is they'll make it more like a recommendation at first, and might restrict people over a certain age groups (over 70 has been mentioned) from attending certain events. Whether people will stop going to such events anyway is hard to predict.

I think they're wary of closing things down for 2 reasons, firstly that it's not that sustainable so it has to be timed carefully to be of maximum value. Secondly they're very worried about the economic impact of any measures.
Click to expand...

The chances that events are banned by the end of March is pretty high as far as I'm concerned. Scale does make a difference, location of outbreaks will make a difference. But even so, for planning purposes my default assumption for events in the 2nd half of March and for April is that they wont happen.

The government are meeting the Premier League/other football entities on Monday to discuss playing behind closed doors stuff. When that stuff is triggered I'm not even sure how long it will be sustainable, because as soon as any player & staff from any first team tests positive or gets isolated due to known contacts being positive, the league will probably grind to a halt completely.
 
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S☼I said:
Apologies elbows - I misremembered the poster and assumed it was you as you've posted a lot of interesting and informed stuff on this
Click to expand...

No problem, I dont want to be an arse about this, but it was a good opportunity to remind people that I am just one among many, albeit one with too much spare time on my hands!

If I had made the claim it would have been a bit vaguer, I would likely have said something like 'a few weeks'.
 
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