Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[sheothebudworths]

It looks quite plausible to me that the very rapid growth rate in London is now slowing significantly.

View attachment 302009

From an admittedly very small sample (workmates, friends and at home), PCR tests are also taking longer and longer to come back.
For home tests - to arrive in the first place and then to get to their destination (Xmas post? Absences?) - but then, generally, for results to be returned, too.

Something else. While we are all feeling massively fucked off and despondent, with whatever levels of knowledge/engagement we have, I think it's totally understandable to feel disappointed - but also, more to the point, that it should be actively encouraged to still be asking questions about it, too, without those being dismissed.
Dunno if I've said that well but it feels ever more important to me.

 

[platinumsage]

Heard of any of these experts elbows ?

 

[sheothebudworths]

The last one rings a (bad) bell.

'Widening the pool' = finding evidence to fit.

 

[Artaxerxes]

The last one rings a (bad) bell.

'Widening the pool' = finding evidence to fit.

 

[Wilf]

The last one rings a (bad) bell.

'Widening the pool' = finding evidence to fit.

Yep, there's a palpable sense of that happening at the moment. Essentially, johnson is sat in a bunker of inaction and the only science he will listen to is the stuff that allows him to stay there. Not postmodernism, not some post truth thing, just plain and simple cowardice and dishonesty.

 

[Supine]

The last one rings a (bad) bell.

'Widening the pool' = finding evidence to fit.

Tbf at least two of those experts are real ones and not some barington oddballs.

 

[sheothebudworths]

 

[sheothebudworths]

Yep, there's a palpable sense of that happening at the moment. Essentially, johnson is sat in a bunker of inaction and the only science he will listen to is the stuff that allows him to stay there. Not postmodernism, not some post truth thing, just plain and simple cowardice and dishonesty.

This has literally filtered down to my workplace, too.
Not anything new but with even more encouragement.
The point not being about me/my small world - just that I'm sure it's going on widely and that none of that helps (obviously).

 

[stdP]

Essentially, johnson is sat in a bunker of inaction and the only science he will listen to is the stuff that allows him to stay there. Not postmodernism, not some post truth thing, just plain and simple cowardice and dishonesty.

Are those youtube Hitler rants still a thing...?

I'd quite like to see a failed dictator having a mental breakdown in front of his most trusted and useless lackeys, setting the scene for his imminent ultimate abdication of responsibility after he finds out despondently that his orders for a "scorched earth" strategy to destroy the people and infrastructure of the country haven't been followed because, despite being evil, some people caught up in his regime still have a shred of sanity left.

Come to think of it, a Downfall parody video based on Boris would be fun to watch too.

 

[teuchter]

Not really, data reporting is what explains why some of the data is in yellow to highlight it will change.

What you are attempting to do is extrapolate the data with your own idea of what it will look like. I don’t know how you have done that but it’s a guess.

It's simply based on an observation that (a) not many "additional" cases are being added to the daily totals more than 2 or 3 days behind the day of report, and (b) some very large numbers of "additional" cases would have to be added to totals from 4 or 5 days ago in order to fit a continuing pattern of cases doubling every 2 days or so. I'm not saying it's impossible, just that it appears quite plausible that we won't see that happen and instead see the rate of increase drop by a fair bit.

Meanwhile on another forum elsewhere in the internet I'm arguing with a load of people predicting that London will peak very soon and it's all scaremongering. So if my guess here is wrong, I still win some internet points over there by telling them they've got it wrong.

Obviously I hope to see it peak asap, and also hope to see the same for hospitalisation numbers, for reasons outside of internet point winnings.

 

[teuchter]

The last one rings a (bad) bell.

'Widening the pool' = finding evidence to fit.

That's what some people will say about those choosing to follow indie sage instead of "real sage" though.

 

[sheothebudworths]

That's what some people will say about those choosing to follow indie sage instead of "real sage" though.

Huh? Is Sajid Javid seeking out the views of anyone sitting on Indie Sage, as any part of today's 'productive discussion' (in overriding actual Sage, afaics)?

 

[elbows]

Heard of any of these experts elbows ?

Marc Lipsitch is the only one I can comment on straight away. Has posted useful tweets in the past and I have long him in my list of twitter accounts to keep an eye on in the pandemic.

This thread on Omicron severity isnt bad for a recent example:

 

[teuchter]

Huh? Is Sajid Javid seeking out the views of anyone sitting on Indie Sage, as any part of today's 'productive discussion' (in overriding actual Sage, afaics)?

Well, I just mean that if you accuse someone of "widening the pool" in order to find views that match those they already hold, then they can say the same about you, unless you are strictly regarding SAGE as the only panel of experts that any decisions should be informed by.

 

[redsquirrel]

Balloux is pretty clearly an "expert" in his field (I actually thought he was part of SAGE) in as far as that is a useful term.
IMO he's pretty much the incarnation of godawful technocratic liberal "centrism" and a total fucking prick to boot but he's not some internet loon.

 

[frogwoman]

Kerkhove is sound I think, she's been at all the WHO press conferences.

 

[elbows]

Kerkhove is sound I think, she's been at all the WHO press conferences.

Yeah just been checking. WHO take on things still has some weaknesses at times but nothing in particular that I would choose to rant about at this moment.

 

[elbows]

As for Ben Cowling, his tweets are often very Hong Kong oriented and tend to focus on a handful of applicable themes such as stuff to do with quarantine and zero covid, so I cant really judge his opinions beyond that sort of stuff.

 

[elbows]

Balloux winds me up quite often but some of his thoughts can still be useful, even though I find that self-described centrists tend to make certain errors of tone and substance routinely, at least during this pandemic so far. They persist because they expect to eventually reach a point in the pandemic where they get it right without having to u-turn when the data gets too bleak. I do intend to soon see if I can go back far enough in his twitter history to see if he made obvious large mistakes with reading previous waves, and whether he persisted with any of them far beyond the stage of available data where a real 'centrist' should adjust.

The following does manage to reflect some of my concerns at the moment, although he may differ with me in terms of which outcomes 'feel worse' for the future. Some outcomes may also fuck up peoples attitudes towards vaccines.

 

[frogwoman]

I don't usually agree with balloux but those posts are pretty much where I'm at at the moment too tbh

 

[elbows]

I could only go back as far as August in his tweet history when I just tried.

That was far enough back though to find him going on about a BBC Scotland article from August in which he featured. Oops.

Is the coronavirus pandemic over at last?

As Scotland loosens most of its remaining restrictions, is the devastating pandemic finally at an end?

www.bbc.co.uk

Prof Balloux is not so concerned. He thinks a "slow drift" in the evolution of the virus is more likely and just now he is "pretty confident" that there will not be a sudden mutation creating "a super virus".

 

[platinumsage]

According to the rumours, Javid and Gove want more lockdown sooner compared to the rest of the government, so he could have been seeking additional views to bolster his position in cabinet meetings, rather than looking to circumvent SAGE in some way as Fraser Nelson is implying.

 

[bimble]

Something else. While we are all feeling massively fucked off and despondent, with whatever levels of knowledge/engagement we have, I think it's totally understandable to feel disappointed - but also, more to the point, that it should be actively encouraged to still be asking questions about it, too, without those being dismissed.
Dunno if I've said that well but it feels ever more important to me.

Thanks. It did feel kind of risky / iconoclaslic to even venture to ask a question about the vaccines yesterday, and then it was like everyone was telling me to eat my greens and be grateful. But also admittedly i was doing a bit of private despair in public, for which this is not the thread, and was feeling really unwell post-jab which didn't help.

 

[cupid_stunt]

And "vaccine escape" has been a topic of concern from the very start...

True, and was always possible, but only people paying close attention would have registered it, it wasn't a major topic in the news, until omicron cropped-up, which I guess is understandable, because that's when it became real & news worthy.

 

[Doctor Carrot]

The NHS is probably going to have the worst winter in its history isn't it? So many people have got it now and that's going to sky rocket over the week between Christmas and New Year.

 

[platinumsage]

Labour apparently don't have access to enough data to suggest any sort of restrictions be implemented, because only parties in government can possibly have a view on that:

 

[rutabowa]

The NHS is probably going to have the worst winter in its history isn't it? So many people have got it now and that's going to sky rocket over the week between Christmas and New Year.

Last year at the peak I didn't know many people who got it, but a fair proportion of them were pretty ill including hospitalisation. This last week it seems like EVERYONE got it, but so far noone has had any worse than a couple of days cold symptoms. This is just my anecdotal data of course (also it is what other people I spoke to have noticed). I just present it as what I noticed, not drawing any conclusions.

 

[Doctor Carrot]

Last year at the peak I didn't know many people who got it, but a fair proportion of them were pretty ill including hospitalisation. This last week it seems like EVERYONE got it, but so far noone has had any worse than a couple of days cold symptoms. This is just my anecdotal data of course (also it is what other people I spoke to have noticed). I just present it as what I noticed, not drawing any conclusions.

Yeah most people seem to have little more than cold like symptoms but it's that whole small percentage of a large number thing. There's also a lag between infection and hospitalisation. People who will need hospitalisation from infections now won't show up until January.

I'm just going on what SAGE predict. 3000 daily admissions in an already knackered and over stretched NHS with staff beside themselves with stress and tiredness from two years of this.

 

[Wilf]

Labour apparently don't have access to enough data to suggest any sort of restrictions be implemented, because only parties in government can possibly have a view on that:

So, if the Welsh Labour Government have a plan, you'd think they have access to information. And if they have that info, you'd think they might pass it on to the mighty kieth?

 

[redsquirrel]

So, if the Welsh Labour Government have a plan, you'd think they have access to information. And if they have that info, you'd think they might pass it on to the mighty kieth?

Pathetic on every level - both as you say one part of Labour not talking to the other, but the Welsh plan is is itself crap, if Omicron is a issue then not introducing mitigation's before Xmas is abysmal.
What's Scottish Labour's policy, can they make it 3 from 3?