Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
- Start date
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andysays
Love and solidarity
I think there's something in what she says though, in that all the stuff which has undoubtedly weakened Johnson over the past few weeks (including but obviously not limited to the backbench rebellion) has made it even less likely that he will take the tough decisions which the worsening Covid situation requires.
The vaccines were never going to be 100% effective and I dont think anyone ever claimed they would be. And vaccines on their own were never going to be enough.
There was also always the possibility that different strains would emerge.
Following the threads on here might help you keep up with things?
cupid_stunt
Merry fecking Christmas.
That was before omicron served us a curveball, surely you understand how that has changed things?
Supine
Newt Member
People who know about this stuff, including people like Chris Whittey have been careful to try and set expectations about how long this will go on and what could happen. The press unfortunately like a simple disaster or good news story.
bimble
floofy
Supine
Newt Member
Shit innit (((bimble)))
Not sure why you're surprised then..?
Oh, I must've misunderstood.
Anyway, pretty sure we're all tired but it is what it is and things could be way worse. (Like being somewhere with v low vaccine availability. We're actually very lucky in the scheme of things
)
Supine
Newt Member
You know it’s only really the line you can use from that chart to draw conclusions…
beesonthewhatnow
going deaf for a living
We won’t ever go back to how things were. There will be a new “normal”, that’s all.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
Yeah, but the yellow segments give some clue about how much might be added on to which bars in the next few days results, and I can step back 5 or 6 days and get to the point where only very small amounts are being added on. The bars 4 and 5 days back would need to double in size to maintain the same sort of growth. I know it's still possible, just looks entirely plausible that isn't going to happen.
Supine
Newt Member
cuppa tee
Well-Known Member
...some posts on twitter this morning were drawing a link between high income younger people who go out a lot being the main group for spreading, and areas like Lambeth, Wandsworth and Westminster with big night time economy leading the pack, I noticed a post in the Brixton forum about a superspreader event. Any of these not infected or isolating already have probably done the off back to ma and pa’s.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
I don't think the counter argument would be a maths one, it would be something about data reporting schedules.Do they teach this technique in maths club?
ska invita
back on the other side
Hospital admissions skyrocketing already in Omicron Head Office
------------------
Has this been mentioned?
"Prof Stephen Powis, the medical director of NHS England, said the health service was on a “war footing”, with plans being developed to treat 15% of Covid patients at home, with remote monitoring of their oxygen levels.
The strategy would allow patients “the same care they would [receive] in hospital but from the comfort of their own home”, Powis told the Sunday Times. “This is better for patients, it is better for their families and it is better for the NHS, as it limited the spread of the virus, which we know at the minute is rising exponentially.”
Care from home sounds great on many levels, but there's a reason there are hospitals and not doctors driving around. Fingers crossed on that one
------------------
Has this been mentioned?
"Prof Stephen Powis, the medical director of NHS England, said the health service was on a “war footing”, with plans being developed to treat 15% of Covid patients at home, with remote monitoring of their oxygen levels.
The strategy would allow patients “the same care they would [receive] in hospital but from the comfort of their own home”, Powis told the Sunday Times. “This is better for patients, it is better for their families and it is better for the NHS, as it limited the spread of the virus, which we know at the minute is rising exponentially.”
Care from home sounds great on many levels, but there's a reason there are hospitals and not doctors driving around. Fingers crossed on that one
teuchter
je suis teuchter
Fair bit of spread in the over 40s too though (and moving towards older groups).
But I'm sure the effect you describe has some significance. I think most people heading off out of London will do so in the next few days and many of them will have significantly changed their behaviour during last week, conscious of the 10 day isolation window.
Supine
Newt Member
Not really, data reporting is what explains why some of the data is in yellow to highlight it will change.
What you are attempting to do is extrapolate the data with your own idea of what it will look like. I don’t know how you have done that but it’s a guess.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Cases by age for the London region have moved on significantly since I last looked. In the younger groups graphs the cases this time have dwarfed the previous waves, and in the older age groups things are now rocketing up.
As usual these are by specimen data so the last parts of the curve are affected by incomplete data. Using 7 day averages otherwise these charts become a complete mess.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I dont think I'm going to join in with looking for signs of slowing, peaks etc this time. The numbers are too large, I dont know the limits of the testing system, and there are a lot of behavioural changes and data issues at this time of year. Would expect that behavioural changes, school holidays etc will make a notable difference both to reality and to testing data, but dont know how clearly it will show up or exactly when, so I'm not going to drive myself mad trying, or talking about all the possible factors all the time. I'll probably still have cause to talk about some of it on a few occasions but I'm not going to rush to spot these things as soon as possible during a time of great uncertainty. Already went through this recently with data from South Africa, sick of it and various themes and premature attempts at analysis. And I'm especially unwilling to do it with data that comes out on a Monday.
weepiper
I fix the machines that fight climate change
The Traverse, the Lyceum and the Playhouse theatres in Edinburgh have all cancelled their Christmas shows. Lockdown is beginning to happen without any action from above anyway.
This is the 7 day numbers for Edinburgh (the whole city is above 400 cases per 100,000, everywhere that I am most often (home, work) is above 1000
This is the 7 day numbers for Edinburgh (the whole city is above 400 cases per 100,000, everywhere that I am most often (home, work) is above 1000
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
And "vaccine escape" has been a topic of concern from the very start...
planetgeli
There's no future in England's dreaming
As far as lived life is concerned, I don't agree. What would be the new things that changed from the old normal?
Where I am I'd say the majority of people are (were) back to the old normal. Walking around 2 weeks ago, besides the odd face mask, I wouldn't have seen any difference with how things were before the pandemic. Don't get me wrong, this is obviously a stupid state of affairs, but people down here are largely of the opinion it's all over. Or were. Then we heard about omicron and a few more face masks went on. The point is, in their heads and their lived lives, covid was over. And it went back to normal.
It would be great if the new normal had things like the attitude to face masks that you see in many parts of Asia. But like fuck it will.
beesonthewhatnow
going deaf for a living
I’d like to think that when we’re back here again this time next year - which I have no doubt we will - perhaps the penny will begin to drop for some people that we need to do things differently for a while. I’m not going to hold my breath though.
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
And that line looks likely to go up a fair bit more before it comes down. Exponential growth phases being what they are.
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