existentialist
Tired and unemotional
I note that the Pulse GP trade paper is reporting that the NHS Covid-19 app has now been tweaked to reduce its sensitivity.
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
- Start date
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yes but some people arent happy with the amount of money and effort thrown at brand new antivirals so far. A lot of the initial effort was in establishing whether any existing antivirals were useful.
I think the subject also came up again recently as a result of the SAGE document that looked at various risks. They were warning that if single antivirals were used, history suggests that resistant strains would emerge. And so they were suggesting that combination therapies where more than one antiviral is given would reduce this risk.
I have not looked at any antivirals myself, so I dont think I can say much more than that.
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2hats
Dust.
More recently: clear evidence that even mild infections post vaccination can lead to long covid symptoms. The rate being somewhere (hand-wavingly) between around a half to one times that in the unvaccinated.
DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2109072.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yes hospital admissions for England and changing with exactly the right timing necessary to demonstrate that at least some of the fall in cases via testing was very real. These figures will soon start to become more useful in determining the real extent of the drop in cases.
As for case figures, Mondays arent terribly useful so it will probably be Wednesday before I next comment on the evolution of that side of the picture. I did look at a bunch of locations with high case numbers, broken down into age groups last night, and that picture is very messy, with variation in patterns seen in these different places. A common theme is that age groups such as 20-24 have stopped dropping or have gone back up again, but its still a bit too early for me to make a big deal of this or see quite where it is going.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Delta has spread to very many countries already. As a global travel hub we will have played some part in that, but other routes were also available.
I wish I'd had more time to discuss all the countries that have had or are starting to have a nightmare with Delta. Indonesia is just one example I could name. Delta is also testing the messy vaccine picture in the US.
bimble
floofy
I think i must be reading this wrong.
What does it mean when it says that ZOE man's study has shown "around 60,000 cases a day" are reported ?
is that using zoe figures plus some algorithm ?
news.sky.com
What does it mean when it says that ZOE man's study has shown "around 60,000 cases a day" are reported ?
is that using zoe figures plus some algorithm ?
COVID-19: UK's daily coronavirus data 'looks a bit fishy', says professor behind UK's largest symptom study
Professor Spector, the man behind the ZOE COVID Symptom Study, says reduced coronavirus testing and concerns over the "pingdemic" could be behind the "dramatic drop" in the number of daily cases recorded by the government.
news.sky.com
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
Official line is that the sensitivity hasn't been changed but that people will only now be told to isolate if they were in contact with an infscted person within the last two days, rather than five.
So that's one of the last things providing a brake on infection rates being seriously watered down.
Cat Fan
Cats and stats
Yeah, it's based on scaling up the people who use the ZOE app to the full population.I think i must be reading this wrong.
What does it mean when it says that ZOE man's study has shown "around 60,000 cases a day" are reported ?
is that using zoe figures plus some algorithm ?
COVID-19: UK's daily coronavirus data 'looks a bit fishy', says professor behind UK's largest symptom study
Professor Spector, the man behind the ZOE COVID Symptom Study, says reduced coronavirus testing and concerns over the "pingdemic" could be behind the "dramatic drop" in the number of daily cases recorded by the government.
Needless to say it's anyone's guess who is right here. There's a good chance the methodology for getting that 60,000 number is wrong. But I wouldn't be surprised if the official numbers were a bit understated either.
Monkeygrinder's Organ
Dodgy geezer swilling vapid lager
The official numbers have always been and always will be understated I think - they're not going to pick up all the asymptomatic cases and not everyone who does have symptoms will necessarily get a test. It should at least be a fairly consistent underestimate though so I guess the question is what would cause the recent decline in those figures if other measures are showing something different. The hospital admissions figures should be more reliable though and they do seem to be indicating a genuine decrease in numbers.
gentlegreen
I hummus, therefore I am ...
The sewer data looks convincing though ... the arseholes seem to have won the gamble - presumably people are being reasonably sensible.
The oversell on the vaccine pisses me off hugely. I've been trying to learn a bit of the science since the beginning, but somehow missed the limitations of vaccines - which I suppose is always going to be different when you're in the middle of a pandemic, rather than just routinely vaccinating well in advance of exposure ...
It's making me wonder what a light case of measles is like ...
The oversell on the vaccine pisses me off hugely. I've been trying to learn a bit of the science since the beginning, but somehow missed the limitations of vaccines - which I suppose is always going to be different when you're in the middle of a pandemic, rather than just routinely vaccinating well in advance of exposure ...
It's making me wonder what a light case of measles is like ...
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Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
And with the infinite wisdom you expect from management almost all the covid precautions will be removed at work by September
elbows
Well-Known Member
Authorities know that daily number of people testing positive is not the whole picture at all. They do not treat the official daily numbers as though they resemble the true figure, so neither should we.
They do use the official testing system numbers as a guide to trends, but even there they like to have it confirmed by other data such as hospitalisations and also the ONS population survey, REACT, ZOE, and wastewaster monitoring. The percentage positivity rate of the official testing system is also a measure they pay attention to, since it offers clues about trends and about the extent to which not enough testing is being done to accurately capture the picture at different stages of waves.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Unless I've missed something I've only seen the wastewater data for Scotland, and although Scotland continues to be a useful guide as to the fate of the rest of the country, paths could diverge somewhat at some point.
I'm rather unhappy about the new entities which have been setup in this pandemic that seem to have a culture of secrecy built in. The Joint Biosecurity Centre has been awful so far in this respect. It even turns out that the head of that organisation left and this was not properly publicised nor had a decent statement been made about who was now in charge of it.
I've neglected Wales in this wave, there are some things I need to look into there including whether any of their wastewaster surveillance data has been published.
The gamble has many components. They have won at least one of these for now, but at quite some political cost if the polls are to be believed. And it is unclear quite what story August will tell. So I'm currently reserving judgement.
elbows
Well-Known Member
And its no bloody surprise that the JBC is so secretive given that it appears to be based on other spooky institutions and the head that quit was actually on secondment from some cyber security entity.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
An example of a recent story confirming the JCB head quit:
www.independent.co.uk
Perhaps this news would have been less surprising to the media if they had noticed this from March:
www.civilserviceworld.com
I suppose my focus on transparency should probably shift to the UK Health Security Agency, since the JBC is supposed to be rolled into that new entity. But its got security in the name, which does not exactly inspire confidence that it will have the same ethos of sharing info with the public that the likes of Public Health England have.
Joint Biosecurity Centre | Institute for Government
The government has announced the creation of a Joint Biosecurity Centre to bring together expertise and analysis to inform decisions on Covid-19.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
An example of a recent story confirming the JCB head quit:
Government denies travel system is ‘rudderless’ after data body chief quits
Head of Joint Biosecurity Centre has left her post, minister confirms
www.independent.co.uk
Perhaps this news would have been less surprising to the media if they had noticed this from March:
'Challenge of a lifetime': DHSC seeks leader for Joint Biosecurity Centre
JBC could get its third director general since being set up last year
www.civilserviceworld.com
I suppose my focus on transparency should probably shift to the UK Health Security Agency, since the JBC is supposed to be rolled into that new entity. But its got security in the name, which does not exactly inspire confidence that it will have the same ethos of sharing info with the public that the likes of Public Health England have.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
If there really is progress (however defined or measured) it goes without saying that's a good thing. But it's still best to keep in mind this is a flawed strategy in the sense that it's been a mixture of gambling and flailing around (over issues like travel and isolation). And that's not just to remind us that they are incompetent scum who have killed tens of thousands, it's also about a lack of confidence how it will play out September onwards. There'll be the schools of course, but I've seen nothing to suggest university halls won't be infection factories again. At a lower level of infection certainly, but passing the virus on to the unvaccinated and vaccinated. The other thing about universities is that most of them seem to be planning to maximise the amount of traditional teaching, in a response to 'why am I paying nine grand for this' complaints. My own institution will be putting large lectures online but otherwise returning to normal lectures and seminars. Universities are in a marketplace and none of them are going to insist on mask wearing or that students get vaccinated, afaik. They will be running pro-vaccination ads, I'm sure, and maybe that's the best way to go. But having unvaccinated 18 year olds living in halls ain't great in a pandemic.
Cloo
Banana for scale
I do hope they will change their minds re: vaccinating kids as surely schools being closed is the most obvious reason for the drop. I've heard that enough Pfizer vaccines are on their way in September to do the kids and boosters for the oldies so just maybe they'll reconsider - but as I've said elsewhere, I suspect that if they do it will be several months too late to help winter. 
Cat Fan
Cats and stats
Yes, Universities will inevitably see a spike in cases. Same as when I was in Uni and would get "freshers flu" every year. Except now with added Covid. Let's hope that as many students get vaccinated as possible in advance. It can be done if there's enough pressure from peers and from the Universities themselves.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
I think there will be genuinely good 'messaging' in universities about getting vaccinated, but an unwillingness to do anything that interferes with recruitment competition and the HE free market.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Yep I think that will be bang on
elbows
Well-Known Member
I dont have time to analyse all the local data for Scotland but due to an evolving picture there I am trying to pay more attention to those who are.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I mentioned the high rates in Lincoln the other day. And now we have some signs of what caused it:
Covid: Lincoln rate highest in England as outbreak linked to club
High infection rates are being linked to an outbreak at a city centre nightclub, health bosses say.
www.bbc.co.uk
elbows
Well-Known Member
Hospital admissions stopped rising a while ago, and have done a mix of staying the same or decresing since, with more decreases of note more recently.View attachment 281919
Odd that new cases are down but hospital admissions and deaths are rising
View attachment 281920
Intensive care numbers and deaths are always the last to stop rising, and death reporting delays are numerous so its takes some time for the true picture to emerge there. Certainly its not a good idea to read too much into deaths by reporting date, because there will be days like today where the number includes a lot of catchup from weekend etc.
Looking at UK figures rather than figures for England can also introduce further delays into certain hospital figures, eg there is more lag with Scottish admission figures.
If the modest decline in numbers in English intensive care seen today continues, then it is reasonable to think that the peak in deaths will turn out to be around this period too, give or take a few days. But since the numbers of deaths per day are lower than in previous waves, they may be buffetted around more by the usual random nature of things, so I should avoid too narrow a prediction. And due to lag it will take some time for this weeks and last weeks death figures to solidify. Last time I checked the highest number of deaths by date of death for the UK was still 'freedom day', July 19th, but there are now some later contender dates for that dubious honour.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Oh and this is what hospital admissions have been doing from July 1st onwards in the English regions and England as a whole. Made using data from Statistics » COVID-19 Hospital Activity which is also the same data used on the dashboard.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Since this waves timing and scope caught many commentators and experts out a bit, leaving shit on their crystal balls, I suppose I should not be surprised that I'm hearing more talk in the media being framed with "the virus has surprised us before so..." type lines.
I think I've moaned about such framing before, because from where I've sat in this pandemic its not that easy to think of occasions where the virus has genuinely surprised me. And I wont be the only one that feels that way. Probably because what people really mean is that they were surprised to find out they were wrong about something. And in most areas I was either lucky enough to seize on the right clues or realise the extreme limitations of my own predictive abilities and hedge my bets accordingly. Maybe that is cheating, but its harder to be surprised if you keep an open mind about as many details as possible. The most obvious thing I got really, really wrong, that I could rewrite as 'the virus surprised me' if I were that way inclined, was the speed with which important new variants with implications arrived, dominated and caused waves. I expected waves linked to behaviour, I did not expect the more transmissible variants to add to that picture of waves so soon in the pandemic. But arrive they did, and I felt very foolish for choosing the wrong messages to believe at the start of the pandemic about how slowly the mutation stuff was likely to happen with this sort of virus. I should have realised that there wasnt much substance to these claims, other than the error detection mechanism this sort of virus has to reduce copying errors. And that the error detection mechanisms effects would not be enough to compensate for the fact this virus was to have so very many opportunities to copy itself. And when Alpha emerged and started to dominate, I initially had no way to judge the extent of its impact compared to the impact of botched and late lockdowns of that period. I didnt know how much was being played up by government in order to use Alpha as an excuse for their failings and u-turns. That does seem like a very long time ago now, but it really wasnt. How my attitude to variants and their potential has changed since then!
But surprises in the Delta era? Hard to come up with one, but I suppose I can. Scotlands peak was rather simultaneous with their end of school term, rather than lagged a bit behind, so I was surprised by that. But that surprise held the key to then not being surprised by whats happened in England with this wave in recent weeks.
It probably also helped me that some of the modelling for more transmissive variants, that I stared at a lot in recent months, had peak timing that was really quite close to what we've actually seen so far, which is why I kept saying July might be the month the shit hit the fan, rather than August or September. But the thing about the modelling Im on about is that I think it was from before they decided to delay step 4 of unlocking, and a lot of the later modelling had the peaks pushed further into the future. So maybe I was just lucky and a bunch of wrongs with out of date assumptions ended up being right by chance.
I suppose I should really think about what could surprise me in future. If I just stick to the current wave for now, I suppose I would be most surprised if the virus rapidly fell away to incredibly low levels. That would at least be a sign that something interesting was happening. Does anyone else have any thoughts about what would surprise them if it happened next in this wave? Because I've mostly got very little sense of what will happen next.
I think I've moaned about such framing before, because from where I've sat in this pandemic its not that easy to think of occasions where the virus has genuinely surprised me. And I wont be the only one that feels that way. Probably because what people really mean is that they were surprised to find out they were wrong about something. And in most areas I was either lucky enough to seize on the right clues or realise the extreme limitations of my own predictive abilities and hedge my bets accordingly. Maybe that is cheating, but its harder to be surprised if you keep an open mind about as many details as possible. The most obvious thing I got really, really wrong, that I could rewrite as 'the virus surprised me' if I were that way inclined, was the speed with which important new variants with implications arrived, dominated and caused waves. I expected waves linked to behaviour, I did not expect the more transmissible variants to add to that picture of waves so soon in the pandemic. But arrive they did, and I felt very foolish for choosing the wrong messages to believe at the start of the pandemic about how slowly the mutation stuff was likely to happen with this sort of virus. I should have realised that there wasnt much substance to these claims, other than the error detection mechanism this sort of virus has to reduce copying errors. And that the error detection mechanisms effects would not be enough to compensate for the fact this virus was to have so very many opportunities to copy itself. And when Alpha emerged and started to dominate, I initially had no way to judge the extent of its impact compared to the impact of botched and late lockdowns of that period. I didnt know how much was being played up by government in order to use Alpha as an excuse for their failings and u-turns. That does seem like a very long time ago now, but it really wasnt. How my attitude to variants and their potential has changed since then!
But surprises in the Delta era? Hard to come up with one, but I suppose I can. Scotlands peak was rather simultaneous with their end of school term, rather than lagged a bit behind, so I was surprised by that. But that surprise held the key to then not being surprised by whats happened in England with this wave in recent weeks.
It probably also helped me that some of the modelling for more transmissive variants, that I stared at a lot in recent months, had peak timing that was really quite close to what we've actually seen so far, which is why I kept saying July might be the month the shit hit the fan, rather than August or September. But the thing about the modelling Im on about is that I think it was from before they decided to delay step 4 of unlocking, and a lot of the later modelling had the peaks pushed further into the future. So maybe I was just lucky and a bunch of wrongs with out of date assumptions ended up being right by chance.
I suppose I should really think about what could surprise me in future. If I just stick to the current wave for now, I suppose I would be most surprised if the virus rapidly fell away to incredibly low levels. That would at least be a sign that something interesting was happening. Does anyone else have any thoughts about what would surprise them if it happened next in this wave? Because I've mostly got very little sense of what will happen next.
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