Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[teuchter]

I'd go with that if it's as accurate - I have remarkably strong gag reaction around back of throat.

Definitely go with what Pickman's model has decided is sufficient, rather than the instructions that come with the tests.

 

[existentialist]

Definitely go with what Pickman's model has decided is sufficient, rather than the instructions that come with the tests.

 

[Brainaddict]

The family I mentioned one of them had a cough, so I felt it particularly inappropriate to stick to lfts. However the similarity in symptoms between covid and a cold is I think something that the government downplays for political reasons. My own covid could have been a cold, someone I know passed something he thought was a cold to a grandparent, who died from the covid, and recently the zoe app has been saying how the delta variant is even more cold-like than previous variants. Many of my friends now get pcr tests if they have cold symptoms, based on their experience of the disease, or the experience of people they know. But I agree that the government says something else.

 

[Pickman's model]

Definitely go with what Pickman's model has decided is sufficient, rather than the instructions that come with the tests.

the nhs website suggests either / or may be sufficient How to do a rapid lateral flow test for coronavirus (COVID-19)

 

[purenarcotic]

Definitely go with what Pickman's model has decided is sufficient, rather than the instructions that come with the tests.

I had training to be a test operative and site supervisor for work. It advises if someone really cannot tolerate the throat swab, then going up both nostrils is okay. HTH.

 

[two sheds]

Definitely go with what Pickman's model has decided is sufficient

teuchter seal of approval I'll do that then

 

[teuchter]

the nhs website suggests either / or may be sufficient How to do a rapid lateral flow test for coronavirus (COVID-19)

No it doesn't. It suggests following the instructions:



It also says that you can do nose only but it may be less accurate:

 

[maomao]

I had training to be a test operative and site supervisor for work. It advises if someone really cannot tolerate the throat swab, then going up both nostrils is okay. HTH.

It's also standard to just do the nose when testing kids. I'm pretty sure this is more down to the possibility of the kids vomiting everywhere than any difference in the way the test works on children and grown ups.

 

[Cat Fan]

Absolutely it’s relative - and importantly at a population level - it means that for every 10 unvaccinated people hospitalised only 1 vaccinated person will be (matching the groups for age and other risk factors etc).

What that means for any individual is not as clear yet (and difficult to work out) - on average over the population it’s a 90% reduction, but it might be that some people are effectively immune but others only have say a 50% reduction in their personal risk.

Well if you think about it, we know a small percentage of people have weak immune systems/comorbidities and for those people vaccines tend to be less effective.

So for anyone with a normal immune system it should be a greater than 90% reduction in risk.

 

[purenarcotic]

It's also standard to just do the nose when testing kids. I'm pretty sure this is more down to the possibility of the kids vomiting everywhere than any difference in the way the test works on children and grown ups.

I was about to add my understanding was that for little ones you dispensed with the tonsil swab, good to have it confirmed.

 

[Pickman's model]

No it doesn't. It suggests following the instructions:



It also says that you can do nose only but it may be less accurate:

View attachment 281724

oh dear oh dear oh dear

it says you can do someone else's nose only.

 

[wtfftw]

Oh. I have been swabbing my childs tonsils. I think the nose is worse tho.

 

[teuchter]

oh dear oh dear oh dear

it says you can do someone else's nose only.

I trust you will edit your advice above before you become responsible for any more thousands of Covid infections than is already the case.

 

[Pickman's model]

I trust you will edit your advice above before you become responsible for any more thousands of Covid infections than is already the case.

i am responsible for no covid infections

 

[Pickman's model]

Oh. I have been swabbing my childs tonsils. I think the nose is worse tho.

if they're fine with it don't change. but when it's been discussed at work generally people - admittedly adults - have reported great discomfort with the tonsils bit.

 

[elbows]

looks like flu jabs are going to be a regular thing too - and at a lower age threshold ...

Flu jabs were already a regular thing and they initially brought in the lower age threshold of 50 during last flu season, with theoretical winter hospital pressure in mind. It makes sense for them to continue that under the current conditions.

 

[elbows]

The hospitalisation rate was never as high as 10% before was it? It's surely just journalists misunderstanding statistics.

To get rates that high typically the comparison being made is between number of people testing positive and number of people hospitalised. Obviously this is not the real ratio of infections to hospitalisations, because many infections are not picked up and recorded via the testing system.

Scotland covers that measure in routine weekly reports, for example:

The proportion of all people who were admitted to hospital within 14 days of a laboratory confirmed COVID-19 positive test has declined, from 13% in the week commencing 25 January 2021, to 3% in the most recent week commencing 05 July 2021

https://publichealthscotland.scot/media/8568/21-07-28-covid19-publication_report.pdf

They also present some vaccine hospital admission data in a way people might find useful. For example:

 

[elbows]

What I'd really like is a big table with age groups down one side, death/hospitalisation/symptomatic/transmission along the other, and then in each box the absolute risk for unvaccinated/one does/two doses. Even with lots of caveats about uncertainties it would help to get a handle on things.

I cannot give you exactly what you want in that regard. Especially because an analysis of this really needs to apply to Delta to be valid at the moment, and the analysis available in this regard for delta only seems to cover a fraction of cases so far, and only involves a very crude separation of age groups (above and below 50 if Im remembering properly). I will still post this later anyway even though it doesnt come that close to what you want.

Looking from a different angle, I think these charts which have been posted several times on this thread already are still of some use.

 

[elbows]

Actually the thing I said I would post later is probably too far away from what you want to bother posting. Its a table but its not the most readable and doesnt contain risk stuff. Pages 18 and 19 of https://assets.publishing.service.g...t_data/file/1005517/Technical_Briefing_19.pdf

 

[2hats]

if they're fine with it don't change. but when it's been discussed at work generally people - admittedly adults - have reported great discomfort with the tonsils bit.

Having performed my first swabbing in the past week (previously only serological testing), I find swabbing my own tonsils no problem at all, but the second I put the 'almost furry' swab up a nostril I start sneezing uncontrollably (eyes also water heavily, making it difficult to see).

 

[elbows]

Extracts from the latest Sottish wastewater surveillance picture:

From pages 19 to 21 of the pdf version of Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no. 62) - gov.scot

WW Covid-19 aggregate trends appear to be following cases on a downward path. However high levels remain.

Figure 17 shows Seafield (a sampling site covering Edinburgh), which is one of many larger sites that show a large decline in WW viral Covid-19 levels compared to previous weeks. Other examples include Shieldhall (covering much of Glasgow) and Hatton (covering Dundee).

However, at a number of locations, WW viral Covid-19 levels do not appear to be falling from high levels, despite declines in new case rates. This includes Nigg (covering Aberdeen), Kirkcaldy and Levenmouth in Fife, Daldowie, Carbarns and Hamilton in Lanarkshire, and Paisley in Renfrewshire (Figure 18). In the case of Paisley, as cases decline, WW COVID-19 levels appear to be increasing. These sites need to be monitored closely to see if the situation persists.

 

[Cat Fan]

This thing about the % effectiveness can really easily be confusing, not just because of the confusion about whether it's relative or not but because sometimes the % given is to do with death, sometimes hospitalisation, etc etc.

What I'd really like is a big table with age groups down one side, death/hospitalisation/symptomatic/transmission along the other, and then in each box the absolute risk for unvaccinated/one does/two doses. Even with lots of caveats about uncertainties it would help to get a handle on things.

What do you want to use that information for? The thing is that while these types of statistics are useful for public health, they aren't that useful to individuals because each individual's level of risk will be wildly different.

All that we need to know as individuals is getting vaccinated gives us a lower chance of catching Covid and a much, much lower chance of developing a serious illness from it. Less risk of long Covid too for those wondering.

 

[Brainaddict]

Less risk of long Covid too for those wondering.

Can I ask where that comes from? There is a subset of 'long covid' that is people with long term physical damage as a result of being in ICU and so on. For sure that will be reduced. But a lot of long covid is about system dysregulation arising from even mild cases - do you have any data on that or were you referring to the former?

 

[bimble]

Can I ask where that comes from? There is a subset of 'long covid' that is people with long term physical damage as a result of being in ICU and so on. For sure that will be reduced. But a lot of long covid is about system dysregulation arising from even mild cases - do you have any data on that or were you referring to the former?

There was this, it’s a bit old now but :

This (kings college & zoe collab study) says that vaccinated people, if infected, are 'up to 30%' less likely to get the long covid. Thats good. Not amazing but still am glad to see it.

 

[Brainaddict]

There was this, it’s a bit old now but :

Thanks, hadn't spotted this

 

[bimble]

Stray ponder: are people researching anti viral treatments for covid ? Haven’t seen anything about that.

 

[Cat Fan]

There was this, it’s a bit old now but :

Thanks, that is what I was thinking of. There are also some studies which show a lot of people get long Covid symptoms without having had Covid. So there's something there as well, i.e. some potential misdiagnosis. Not to downplay long Covid which does exist.

 

[two sheds]

Thanks, that is what I was thinking of. There are also some studies which show a lot of people get long Covid symptoms without having had Covid. So there's something there as well, i.e. some potential misdiagnosis. Not to downplay long Covid which does exist.

ME related? Similar symptoms from what I've heard.

 

[LDC]

A certain subset of 'long covid' will be very similar to ME/CFS in terms of having no detectable physical cause and will get diagnosed after other things have been ruled out.

There are also some studies which show a lot of people get long Covid symptoms without having had Covid.

Plenty of people also have ME/CFS with no identifiable viral trigger or cause, so I guess that's a similarity. (Have you got a link to that study?)

 

[teuchter]

Hospital admissions continues to look encouraging.