Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[teuchter]

They're literally throwing the doors open you stupid fucking twat. How the fuck does NOT result in more people getting infected than a more gradual re-opening that allows more vaccine immunity to build up first?

It's a matter of degree. The doors are pretty much open already.

 

[NoXion]

It's a matter of degree. The doors are pretty much open already.

The situation is bad, so let's make it worse? Great logic there.

 

[teuchter]

Around the time of the winter peak, we had some argument/discussion about the idea that the average of "by date reported" provided some clues about what the actual numbers "by day of test/death" would be doing a few days later (having caught up with reporting backlog).

The chart for cases by date reported looks like this just now.


and on a log scale:

 

[teuchter]

The situation is bad, so let's make it worse? Great logic there.

You're not reading what's being posted.

 

[elbows]

Yes I was just in this middle of posting to say that they've added log scale versions of the charts to the UK dashboard, when I saw your post appear....

Unfortunately I find the most interesting stuff these days involves graphs with different age groups, and although a lot of that data is present on the dashboard behind the scenes, its not well represented in very many charts.

Also the amount of vertical size they allow for each chart is still limited, so most graphs end up with fairly shallow looking trends, making it harder to spot some of the smaller fluctuations in trajectory on some of the log scale charts.

This chart they provide is one way to see the fluctuations much more clearly:

 

[NoXion]

You're not reading what's being posted.

Get fucked, you dickhead.

 

[elbows]

And the way those percentage changes have been oscillating means its even harder for me to conclude at any early stage that clues are present about peak timing. I'll be stuck not really being able to be sure of the peak until we reach a point where there is a fall in reported cases that is sustained for quite some time. A slowing of percentage increases wont be enough of a clue, especially if it keeps oscillating with rhythm like it has been.

 

[andysays]

I think that by including political opinions in information that is presented as scientific advice you are liable to put certain people off, and open yourself to being accused of presenting the scientific facts in a way that is biased by your political opinions.

There are people who will agree with the scientific facts, but disagree with what the response should be. And there will be people who reject the science. Indie SAGE is wasting its time with the latter, but for the former group, I think its best not to alienate them, because you have some chance of influencing their response, and making sure their response is not based on wrong or partial facts.

Yeah, let's keep politics out of science, especially when infection rates continue to rise as a result of the scientific advice being dismissed and overridden by the government to further their own political careers and economic interests.

That's definitely the best approach

 

[elbows]

Often there isnt even really a very large gap between SAGEs stance and the stance of Indie SAGE. The biggest difference is in the tone, and a lot of that comes down to the muted and 'not really comprehensive minutes' nature of the SAGE minutes made available, and their official relationship to the decision makers. Plus the variable delays in how long it takes for SAGE documents to be made public.

There are exceptions though where there is a wider gap between them. If I were looking to explore that more right now, which Im not, matters relating to schools and children would be the obvious starting point.

Certainly the official SAGE were happy to put a section about the importance of maintaining low prevalence of the virus in their documents at the end of April.

 

[elbows]

Since I'm using data from Scotland for peak clues, I suppose I really should point out the version of the graph I posted a few posts ago but for Scotland:

 

[teuchter]

Yeah, let's keep politics out of science, especially when infection rates continue to rise as a result of the scientific advice being dismissed and overridden by the government to further their own political careers and economic interests.

That's definitely the best approach

I'm not someone who thinks that politics and science can be kept absolutely separate, but I think it is often useful for people to be clear about whether they are attempting to offer scientific or political opinion. There are scientists who are naive about politics and there are politicians who are niave about science. Indie SAGE presents itself as a group set up to provide scientific opinion and information. If I want political commentary on how policy is (or isn't) responding to scientific advice then I'd prefer to get it elsewhere.

What did you think about Richard Madeley asking Susan Richie about being a communist?

 

[elbows]

Indie SAGE presents itself as a group set up to provide scientific opinion and information. If I want political commentary on how policy is (or isn't) responding to scientific advice then I'd prefer to get it elsewhere.

I see Indie SAGE as a response to the way official SAGE advice was published, not published, how official SAGE stuff was used or misused by other parts of government, and also to provide contrast between views a SAGE consensus took compared to other scientific positions.

And its always had quite a heavy focus on the gaps between various forms of scientific advice and what actions government have and have not taken at different points.

Plenty of its positions have become quite predictable and it has comfort zones that it finds relatively easy to discuss but it also shies away from some areas. For example they find it much easier to call for various sensible mitigation measures in particular settings, eg to keep going on about ventilation and schools. But they arent going to call for the heaviest brakes to be slammed on at quite the same time an individual like me might.

 

[andysays]

...What did you think about Richard Madeley asking Susan Richie about being a communist?

I can't remember the exact details of this incident, but are you suggesting there's any sort of equivalence between Madeley attempting to undermine Richie's opinion about Covid on the basis that she's a communist and a group of scientists drawing a political conclusion when they see the government acting that runs counter to the scientific advice in a way which will impact on the lives and future health of currently uncountable numbers of people?

 

[elbows]

It did sound like he was suggesting that, and it wasnt terribly convincing.

 

[teuchter]

I can't remember the exact details of this incident, but are you suggesting there's any sort of equivalence between Madeley attempting to undermine Richie's opinion about Covid on the basis that she's a communist and a group of scientists drawing a political conclusion when they see the government acting that runs counter to the scientific advice in a way which will impact on the lives and future health of uncountable numbers of people?

There was an implication that her opinions about what should be done about Covid were driven by a political agenda rather than looking at scientific evidence. There are always people who will want to try and dismiss scientific advice as being biased and driven by political agendas. And if scientists start giving their opinions on why politicians are ignoring the science, rather than just stating that they are ignoring the science, then it seems to me that people are more liable to suspect that those scientists are just motivated by political ideologies and not take seriously the scientific opinion they are offering. We've had an example of that in the last page of this thread.

 

[elbows]

I dont recommend bending over backwards to try to accommodate those who will always be able to find some excuse to dismiss stuff that doesnt fit their own politics. You'll just waste time, water down your message and play into their hands.

 

[elbows]

See I think Indie SAGE would be wasting their time trying to broaden their appeal in that way.

Because there are already plenty of people who think they are some kind of 'pandemic centrist' who arent fans of Indie SAGE. Not to mention those with the more obviously extreme positions further to the right. Attempts to win these people over seem futile and counterproductive, Indie SAGE should stick to their guns.

Individuals that make up Indie SAGE farting around with their language to restrain themselves a bit is not going to be a key difference maker. Rather they should keep going with their main messages, and if those messages ring true to people then thats all you can hope for. And it will be the unfolding reality of this wave that largely gets to dictate the extent to which such messages ring true beyond an obvious core audience.

 

[Cloo]

Presumably the government is counting on infections peaking before September so it can be all 'back to school'.

 

[elbows]

Presumably the government is counting on infections peaking before September so it can be all 'back to school'.

They are counting on the peak coming much sooner than that in order that levels of hospitalisations dont bust well beyond what the system can hope to cope with.

I think they are also partially banking on it peaking earlier and at lower levels than some of the figures they've chucked around in public recently. So they can turn that into a great news story, an additional victory by beating expectations.

 

[Raheem]

Presumably the government is counting on infections peaking before September so it can be all 'back to school'.

Or it will be like January: back to school, because anything else would be "inhumane", then U-turn before teatime on day one.

 

[flypanam]

Everything seems to be a recipe for people just deleting the Track & Trace app as well - or everyone's just going to ignore 'pings',

At a staff meeting today a member of the teaching staff admitted telling her students not to check in and turn off Bluetooth when on campus, so they don’t get pinged.

Nothing was said by senior mgmt. Our union branch is having a meeting tomorrow, dunno what will come out of it though.

 

[teqniq]

 

[andysays]

Someone should really tell that senior NHS clinician to keep their political opinions out of their tweets...

 

[teqniq]

Whether you're being serious or otherwise, I wish more of them spoke up, and that wasn't a tweet it was a DM.

 

[andysays]

Whether you're being serious or otherwise, I wish more of them spoke up, and that wasn't a tweet it was a DM.

Sorry, I was being flippant, but I was trying to make a serious point.

It is perhaps a measure of the despair and frustration that many are feeling at recent developments that have led those who previously might not have expressed those political thoughts, maybe not even thought in those terms, to start doing so now.

 

[two sheds]

People shouldn't mention poverty being linked to coronavirus deaths because that's political too.

 

[platinumsage]

No one said people shouldn’t be political ffs, but a body that claims to be apolitical should probably try to be, or else stop claiming that they are.

 

[Orang Utan]

No one said people shouldn’t be political ffs, but a body that claims to be apolitical should probably try to be, or else stop claiming that they are.

if you any thoughts at all, how can you be apolitical?

 

[Hollis]

Was due to visit parents for first time in 16 months next week - anyway have cancelled. His immune system ain't all it should be due to treatment, so not worth the risk.

 

[elbows]

Even if they bent over backwards to be non-political they would still be accused of being political as soon as they said something someone didnt like. Usually because the someone in question has shit politics.