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Why do they claim to be then?
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
- Start date
Why do they claim to be then?
Orang Utan
Psychick Worrier Ov Geyoor
they probably obliged to
elbows
Well-Known Member
Where do they make that claim anyway?
Politics isnt mentioned on their page about themselves:
www.independentsage.org
And their youtube description is:
I note the word robust. Some of the wording reflects just how little official SAGE stuff was published in the early days. They have wound some people up by using words like preeminent, and other people with some experience in the field may rant about 'self appointed experts' or people seeking attention or undue prominence. Most of this is understandable but rather typical petty human stuff that should not be allowed to get in the way of the substance of the messages such entities or individuals may feel like coming out with in this pandemic.
Politics isnt mentioned on their page about themselves:
What is Independent SAGE? | Independent SAGE
www.independentsage.org
And their youtube description is:
I note the word robust. Some of the wording reflects just how little official SAGE stuff was published in the early days. They have wound some people up by using words like preeminent, and other people with some experience in the field may rant about 'self appointed experts' or people seeking attention or undue prominence. Most of this is understandable but rather typical petty human stuff that should not be allowed to get in the way of the substance of the messages such entities or individuals may feel like coming out with in this pandemic.
Doctor Carrot
Marxist Henchman
I really don't understand your obsession with this. Say you're a scientist with truck loads of data that you see all going in the wrong direction. You see ample numbers of people likely being disabled and the possibility of escape variants due to rampant infection. You know all this is going to be caused directly by government policy and your job is to communicate this information to the public, what are you gonna do?
How exactly do you say 'there's really bad shit coming into view right now and it's all because of government policy' without in some way sounding political? Granted, they could've not said the stuff about a hard libertarian government doing this for ideological reasons but fuck it, why not? There's enough bullshit and obfuscation in public discourse now so why not, for once, just call a spade a spade?
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Yes, supply of alternatives to the AZ one, required for the under 40's, is the main issue.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yep supply, probably a few other logistics issues at times at local level, variations in uptake/demand from various age groups. And the timing of when the most first doses were given obviously having an effect on demand for second doses at different moments in time.
The much lower rates of vaccination are certainly one of those issues where it is bemusing but unsurprising to see the press not focussing on very much at all. Graphs of daily vaccination rates are freely available o the UK dashboard, they are no secret, but they dont get turned into colourful stories in the press much do they? For various reasons those arent really the stories they want to tell on an ongoing basis.
I dont think I've got any sense of what proportion of people took up the offer to move their second dose forwards either.
The much lower rates of vaccination are certainly one of those issues where it is bemusing but unsurprising to see the press not focussing on very much at all. Graphs of daily vaccination rates are freely available o the UK dashboard, they are no secret, but they dont get turned into colourful stories in the press much do they? For various reasons those arent really the stories they want to tell on an ongoing basis.
I dont think I've got any sense of what proportion of people took up the offer to move their second dose forwards either.
Cat Fan
Cats and stats
A friend of mine's daughter came into contact with another kid who subsequently tested positive.
School won't let her keep her daughter home unless they have been contacted by test and trace. The positive test was on Sunday. As of Thursday test and trace still hasn't been in touch.
So yeah... Test and trace doesn't seem to be working anymore (if it ever worked)
elbows
Well-Known Member
Test & trace systems generally decline quite badly when the number of cases gets too large too. We heard much about this in previous waves but its been largely ignored in England so far this time. I believe it has come up in Scotland recently, probably because statistics are kept as to whether targets are being met for how quickly contact tracing etc is done, and they've not been hitting their targets. I'm not bloody surprised given their overall case numbers in recent times.
Meanwhile in Scotland I see that Sturgeons language continues to ring bells in terms of the sort of language used during periods of possible peak in past waves. Authorities hesitate for good reason to declare that things have peaked at the very earliest opportunity to make that claim. It comes more gradually, which is fair enough because I too cannot really judge peaks with a high degree of confidence until quite a bit of time passes after the date that actually turns out to be the peak. Sometimes in the past the authorities have left it slightly later than me to declare that we've gone past a peak, but not by much.
Meanwhile in Scotland I see that Sturgeons language continues to ring bells in terms of the sort of language used during periods of possible peak in past waves. Authorities hesitate for good reason to declare that things have peaked at the very earliest opportunity to make that claim. It comes more gradually, which is fair enough because I too cannot really judge peaks with a high degree of confidence until quite a bit of time passes after the date that actually turns out to be the peak. Sometimes in the past the authorities have left it slightly later than me to declare that we've gone past a peak, but not by much.
Covid in Scotland: Nicola Sturgeon says surge in cases may be levelling off
Nicola Sturgeon says a "slowdown" in infections gives her optimism that restrictions can be eased.
www.bbc.co.uk
Questions over whether the testing system will be able to cope with 100,000 cases a day - though I'm not sure why cases shouldn't go far higher than that.
www.theguardian.com
Lifting Covid rules in England ‘will overwhelm testing capacity’
Exclusive: Expert says 660,000 PCR tests a day will be needed if country has 100,000 daily infections
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yeah if we actually reach a point with that level of infection then things will buckle and if history is any guide they will have to start restricting access to testing.
I really hoped we'd get regular, timely sewage data for England, eg on the dashboard, in time to monitor this wave via a means that isnt reliant on attitudes to testing, testing capacity etc. That data exists but it isnt often publicly shared
Also if anyone remembers the period when we were heading downwards on the slope of the last wave, and the government etc were only too happy to tell us that as the number of positives fell, they'd be able to do genomic sequencing on a far greater proportion of positive tests. Well that isnt going to be possible with silly numbers so our variant surveillance will also suffer. Although they do have some forms of sewage analysis on the genomic level too.
I really hoped we'd get regular, timely sewage data for England, eg on the dashboard, in time to monitor this wave via a means that isnt reliant on attitudes to testing, testing capacity etc. That data exists but it isnt often publicly shared
Also if anyone remembers the period when we were heading downwards on the slope of the last wave, and the government etc were only too happy to tell us that as the number of positives fell, they'd be able to do genomic sequencing on a far greater proportion of positive tests. Well that isnt going to be possible with silly numbers so our variant surveillance will also suffer. Although they do have some forms of sewage analysis on the genomic level too.
bimble
floofy
By what mechanism would infections peak before September?
I'm just not understanding what would cause that to happen, in the circumstances.
Cat Fan
Cats and stats
The tracing part already seems to be breaking down. Little point in the testing when the tracing doesn't work.Questions over whether the testing system will be able to cope with 100,000 cases a day - though I'm not sure why cases shouldn't go far higher than that.
Lifting Covid rules in England ‘will overwhelm testing capacity’
Exclusive: Expert says 660,000 PCR tests a day will be needed if country has 100,000 daily infections
elbows
Well-Known Member
Theres a few different ways I can describe this.
It boils down to the virus needing to find ever increasing numbers of susceptible individuals to infect in order to carry on with its exponential growth.
Modelling of waves is done via all sorts of detail but at its heart it usually boils down to a model of how many susceptible people there are in the population being modelled, and how that changes over time. As the number of infections increases to giddy heights, the number of susceptible individuals starts to drop at a faster rate than before, and this eventually adds up to a situation that starts to thwart the virus more and more.
There are less susceptible individuals now, due to a combination of vaccination and previous infections. The government appear to be banking on this causing a threshold to be reached which will change the balance, and leave the virus still finding victims but not enough of them to sustain growth in case numbers.
In the past we have hit peaks because the virus couldnt sustain its growth. This has been down to a combination of infection and behavioural changes. People met less other people, took steps to reduce the chances of infection, self-isolated, shielded, worked from home, experienced various degrees of lockdown etc.
Government have thrown away some of those brakes because they think that the immunity picture can carry more of the weight. They know that school summer holidays will also have an impact on the opportunities the virus has. And they know that some brakes are still in place, some people will not return to normal, will self-isolate etc etc.
Plus they know that they can expect a different ratio of cases to hospitalisations now, due to vaccines.
On the negative side with the current picture is the Delta variant, and the people who've been vaccinated but who wont end up being protected, and the various brakes the government says it has thrown away and will not touch for now.
All of the above combines to create a picture of uncertainty where the government will be encouraged to try their luck, but where people like me wont be able to judge whether they can get away with it or not until we actually find out for ourselves. They might, they might not.
If they dont get away with it and the virus shows no signs of running out of an ever increasing daily number of victims, then if that carries on for long enough the government will end up having to reapply stronger brakes or massively change more rules than they've announced so far.
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elbows
Well-Known Member
And so another way to put it is that peaks still come without lockdowns, the difference is when and how high. And in the case of lockdown & behavioural change-induced peaks, what sort of resurgence and new wave is possible again when those behaviours and rules are changed. As opposed to peaks caused mostly by levels of immunity, where we wouldnt expect subsequent waves of note unless/until immunity dropped back below the threshold, either because of changes in our bodies or changes to the virus.
Since reality is normally a combination of these factors, to some extent even without formal lockdowns, I wont be too confident as to whether immunity threshold stuff is solely responsible for any peak, since certain brakes and behavioural changes are still contributing too. So the future could still be bumpy, especially during winters, even if there were no big changes to the virus itself or our levels of immunity.
Since reality is normally a combination of these factors, to some extent even without formal lockdowns, I wont be too confident as to whether immunity threshold stuff is solely responsible for any peak, since certain brakes and behavioural changes are still contributing too. So the future could still be bumpy, especially during winters, even if there were no big changes to the virus itself or our levels of immunity.
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SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
Questions over whether the testing system will be able to cope with 100,000 cases a day - though I'm not sure why cases shouldn't go far higher than that.
Lifting Covid rules in England ‘will overwhelm testing capacity’
Exclusive: Expert says 660,000 PCR tests a day will be needed if country has 100,000 daily infections
Probably part of the plan. Case numbers can't keep going up if testing collapses.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Oh, I'd have thought diagnosing the causes of a problem comes with the territory for doctors. Particularly in the realm of public health.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
(((Scientists being honest))))
elbows
Well-Known Member
It appears they've decided to make one of the brakes I keep going on about weaker, by fucking around with the sensitivity of the app.
Whether this turns out to be seen as pragmatic and sensible or ends up being seen as part of a doomed approach will come down to peak size and timing.
www.theguardian.com
Whether this turns out to be seen as pragmatic and sensible or ends up being seen as part of a doomed approach will come down to peak size and timing.
NHS Covid app to be tweaked to cut need for self-isolation
Ministers decide to make app less sensitive amid fears millions will have to stay home over next month
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Given that they actively want the under 18s to get infected, maybe they should design the app to show where you can take your sons and daughters to get a lung full. Other ideas they are trialling include sponsoring the infected to tour schools and playgroups and Group 4 run Help the Virus Escape the Vaccine events. White feathers will be handed out to the able bodied non-infected.
wtfftw
melting like a toastie
Yeah exactly. They should be tweaking it to be more sensitive.
There’s no such thing as apolitical science. All scientific research takes place within a context. Even things as straightforward as what the research question is and what is measured are based on assumptions, priorities and biases that are derived from social contexts that can broadly be described as “political”. Then we have the way that the data is interpreted — what is included and what isn’t, how groups are divided within the data, what type of method is applied — that’s all contextual, political-with-a-small-p. And that’s all before we get to the bit about how the results are written up, discussed and broadcast, which is where the politics are most obviously evident.
Loose meat
Well-Known Member
Most helpful graphing that's not behind a paywall >>
Covid UK: coronavirus cases, deaths and vaccinations today
Are coronavirus cases rising in your local area and nationally? Check week-on-week changes across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and the latest figures from public health authorities
Thora
Differently Ethical
I live in a small town in the south west that has been largely unaffected by covid, we've always had very low numbers.
Today, Year 7 is isolating at the secondary school.
Year 2 and Reception are isolating at the primary.
I went into the pharmacy today and they had a poster up warning of staff shortages for the next 10 days.
My local pub is closed til at least the 12th due to all 4 staff isolating.
Today, Year 7 is isolating at the secondary school.
Year 2 and Reception are isolating at the primary.
I went into the pharmacy today and they had a poster up warning of staff shortages for the next 10 days.
My local pub is closed til at least the 12th due to all 4 staff isolating.
l'Otters
.
The comment about the libertarian right that’s sparked this discussion of whether the Indie Sage are political or not. Who actually made that comment? Is he on the Indie Sage panel? (Hint: no.)
Yesterday’s thing was a press conference with various people who’d signed an open letter in the Lancet. Some overlap with Indie Sage. Not the same thing.
Doesn’t negate the entire discussion of whether Indie Sage are or should be political or not. Just seems like a lot of people are basing their arguments of that on something which isn’t what they think it is.
Loose meat
Well-Known Member
if it's a week away, hell of an opportunity for those who have chosen to not get jabbed to change their minds.
At this point, for the over 65s, you'd think not dying or taking up NHS resouces might outweigh worries about alien mutant vaccine 5th circle of hell phone masts.
At this point, for the over 65s, you'd think not dying or taking up NHS resouces might outweigh worries about alien mutant vaccine 5th circle of hell phone masts.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I should really have more explicitly stated that at its heart its the interaction between the number of infectious individuals at each moment and the number of susceptible people at those same moments, and the number of recovered people. I guess that was still somewhat clear from what I said, but the number of infectious and recovered people should have gotten equal billing. Well to be more specific, a lot of the models are of the type called SIR - Susceptible, Infected, Recovered. Thats been around a long time so there are quite a few modified versions that use that approach as the foundation and add further complications.
gentlegreen
I hummus, therefore I am ...
Yes that occurred to me too.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Unfortunately vaccine hesitancy goes well beyond those sort of anti-vax stances, its a messy thing. In some areas they have successfully been chipping away at some versions of this problem. And in some peoples minds circumstances evolve in a direction that pushes them over the line towards getting a vaccine rather than continuing to resist.
But I'm not sure at this point how statistically significant such progress will be. We can already see an expected shape on the vaccination charts of how uptake gradually declines as we move down the age groups, and at this point due to them as yet incomplete nature of the programme, I wouldnt like to guess on what percentages the uptake in younger ages will ultimately settle on. Lower uptake in men is increasingly obvious with decreased age too. I will post a chart of two later since updated info on this came out in yesterdays weekly surveillance report.
But I'm not sure at this point how statistically significant such progress will be. We can already see an expected shape on the vaccination charts of how uptake gradually declines as we move down the age groups, and at this point due to them as yet incomplete nature of the programme, I wouldnt like to guess on what percentages the uptake in younger ages will ultimately settle on. Lower uptake in men is increasingly obvious with decreased age too. I will post a chart of two later since updated info on this came out in yesterdays weekly surveillance report.
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