I agree entirely. My mental health took a real hit this past winter. Hasn't fully recovered and won't while we're still in the twilight zone thanks to this government. I'm far from the only or the worst either (I'm alive after all ffs)
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
- Start date
Landlords and bosses will of course be celebrating. Could this be a summer/autumn of evictions?
Steel Icarus
we move
Which one is your favourite? First, second or third wave?This is fantastic news. Waves of relief
Steel Icarus
we move
A very good point. The government and its shills like that ghoul Harries banging on about schools not being a vector for covid now saying how great the holidays are coming as this will naturally lower cases is more rank hypocrisy and plain opportunist bullshittery
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yes in some key ways it is that, a reworking of their original plan A at the start of the pandemic, and a reworking of some of the rhetoric that went with it. Vallances doomed herd immunity justification that they tried in desperation just before that plan died mid March 2020, was that if we pushed down too hard on the curve to really suppress things, it would just bounce back again later when we dont want it, eg in winter.
I would say that this whole population immunity side of things is a big chunk of the governments approach, but its not quite the whole thing. Hence the reason why the 19th wont be a full freedom day in the way some demanded. Even this shit, reckless government is still wary enough to have left some other options available to them if they cant make the numbers add up. So yeah its herd immunity via a combination of infections and vaccination, with some stuff left in place to attempt to keep R within a certain range they think the system can cope with.
If there wasnt a school summer holiday coming, with its expected effects on R, then I'm not exactly sure what they'd have tried in order to create a compatible version of this plan. Probably they would have had to keep a number of other restrictions in place on July 19th compared to what they've actually gone for via the wiggle room that school holidays provide. Which also implies that once schools are back again after the summer holiday, if population immunity levels have not unlocked a very different picture in terms of potential for more waves of notable size, they will have to do something to compensate for that. Or just do what they did last year and ignore the problem for as long as possible and then have to slam on some really quite hard brakes some months further down the line.
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elbows
Well-Known Member
Although every time that comes up, I feel the need to mention that some of the impact school closures have on reducing R is because this affects adult contact mixing patterns too, so its not just about direct transmission in schools.
Modellers may have tended to only look at the direct effects, ie school children mixing patterns during term time vs during holidays though.
When it comes to the modelling, this is the sort of assumptions that were used (in this case from the Imperial College modelling paper from June). Some care is required to interpret this because the R numbers here are for the previous Alpha variant, and dont take into account the impact of increasing immunity. So I expect they take these numbers, multiply by a factor to cover Delta being a more transmissive variant, and then combine that with their expectations of the immunity/susceptibility picture over time.
Central Scenario
School holidays: 2.70 (2.04 – 3.51)
School terms: 3.00 (2.33 – 3.80)
Higher R following full NPI lifting:
School holidays: 4.20 (3.51– 4.98)
School terms: 4.50 (3.81 – 5.28)
In other words with the Alpha variant they were using a 0.3 decrease in R during school holidays.
Mr Retro
Beware hedgehogs
Which poster was that?
elbows
Well-Known Member
I dont get the same mileage out of examining the words of the BBCs Nick Triggle as I used to, but in the interests of completeness and future comparison between the different waves and the messages that swirled around each time, I will do so once again.
I've called him 'partially reformed' this year, because the only way was up for him compared to the shit he tried to sell in March 2020 and September 2020. Its still his job to frame things in a rather establishment way, but there are signs that he has at least learnt how to position his message so that he doesnt look so instantly and comprehensively foolish if the plan goes horribly wrong. In this case, via his first sentence and his last.
From the analysis section of Covid: Most rules set to end in England, says PM
As usual with these relatively narrow framing and parroting exercises, much is still missing from this picture. So I'm not about to give him an award for pandemic journalism. But I note the wiggle room and all that is not said.
I've called him 'partially reformed' this year, because the only way was up for him compared to the shit he tried to sell in March 2020 and September 2020. Its still his job to frame things in a rather establishment way, but there are signs that he has at least learnt how to position his message so that he doesnt look so instantly and comprehensively foolish if the plan goes horribly wrong. In this case, via his first sentence and his last.
From the analysis section of Covid: Most rules set to end in England, says PM
As usual with these relatively narrow framing and parroting exercises, much is still missing from this picture. So I'm not about to give him an award for pandemic journalism. But I note the wiggle room and all that is not said.
elbows
Well-Known Member
For anyone that didnt see the full press conference, this is the Guardians coverage of Whittys attempt not to be a shithead about masks:
www.theguardian.com
Chris Whitty suggests guidelines for use of masks after 19 July
England’s medical chief gives three situations in which it would be important to wear face covering
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
Section 21 notice period drops back down to 2 months in October. The de facto moratorium on enforcement of possession orders will presumably be out the window as well.
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elbows
Well-Known Member
I have not read the SAGE document that the Mirror are on about in this article yet.
www.mirror.co.uk
SAGE warn of 'significant risk' from scrapping Covid rules in grim new papers
SAGE scientists warned the government step four of the roadmap 'may recreate the conditions for super spreader events' and stringent measures might be needed to bring cases down again
www.mirror.co.uk
2hats
Dust.
From SAGE meeting 87, 22 April 2021: 'EMG, SPI-M and SPI-B: Considerations in implementing long-term ‘baseline’ NPIs'. Published 5 July, 2021.
bimble
floofy
This bit, about vaccinatation certificates, in the guardian writeup of what was announced today -
"The document outlining the full plans noted that certificates could be used to help keep businesses open “if the country is facing a difficult situation in autumn or winter”.
so yeah, if this is "irreversible" like PM kept saying the other day i'd be v surprised.
"The document outlining the full plans noted that certificates could be used to help keep businesses open “if the country is facing a difficult situation in autumn or winter”.
so yeah, if this is "irreversible" like PM kept saying the other day i'd be v surprised.
Cat Fan
Cats and stats
You are correct, it is absolutely reversible, and it will be reversed if and when the hospital numbers threaten to overwhelm the NHS.
Personally I'm going to try and enjoy the relative freedom* while we have it because I struggle to see us getting through winter without restrictions.
*While staying safe
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2hats
Dust.
elbows
Well-Known Member
This is the document covering todays announcements. Much of it is quotable so I will have to restrict myself to just a few key points.
www.gov.uk
I will cover some stuff to do with schools and the governments ambitions to remove certain forms of self isolation in another post.
COVID-19 Response: Summer 2021
I will cover some stuff to do with schools and the governments ambitions to remove certain forms of self isolation in another post.
elbows
Well-Known Member
So in regards removing schools bubbles, and the timing of that and other changes to self-isolation rules, thre is this sort of stuff. They've given themselves a bit of wiggle room and as expected the timing for some of this shit is not till later.
As for the emergency brakes they are retaining:
And there are a few other things in the document that hint at how much local public health authorities will still be able to intervene in specific outbreaks.
As for the emergency brakes they are retaining:
And there are a few other things in the document that hint at how much local public health authorities will still be able to intervene in specific outbreaks.
Dystopiary
putting up a hook to hang my hopes upon
Disabled women have begun a three-week protest to highlight “appalling” research findings that showed they were almost twice as likely to die from COVID-19 during the pandemic as non-disabled women.
Disabled women decide ‘enough is enough’ and launch protest over pandemic deaths
They said the research showed that disabled women have been treated as “collateral damage” by the government during the pandemic.
About 20 disabled members of the Women’s Equality Party (WEP) and allies – including the party’s co-founder, Sandi Toksvig – were outside the Houses of Parliament yesterday (pictured)) to begin their #91Percent campaign.
The party wants to ensure that the official inquiry into the handling of the pandemic crisis examines its impact on disabled people, including the disproportionate loss of life faced by disabled women.
Disabled women decide ‘enough is enough’ and launch protest over pandemic deaths
They said the research showed that disabled women have been treated as “collateral damage” by the government during the pandemic.
About 20 disabled members of the Women’s Equality Party (WEP) and allies – including the party’s co-founder, Sandi Toksvig – were outside the Houses of Parliament yesterday (pictured)) to begin their #91Percent campaign.
The party wants to ensure that the official inquiry into the handling of the pandemic crisis examines its impact on disabled people, including the disproportionate loss of life faced by disabled women.
elbows
Well-Known Member
No problem.
So as far as I can judge, plenty of the brakes that exist already in terms of specific outbreak responses at a local level will still be in place for the current wave. The stuff I've mentioned in recent weeks that is nowhere near as comprehensive as lockdowns etc, but is still something that has an effect and that causes obvious disruption and a sense that life is not 'back to normal'.
Even the school stuff doesnt necessarily amount to that much less disruption - it sounds like it may stop disruption when the number of children testing positive is a few, but notable school outbreaks will probably still lead to plenty being told to self-isolate, or the schools themselves shutting down certain stuff for a while, as already happens. And when staff catch it things wont change much until the broader, and more vaguely timed changes for vaccinated adults isolating when they've been in contact with someone positive come in. And the proposed timing of these school changes means the new system wont really get a chance to demonstrate itself before the summer holidays begin, so in some sense they arent really making this change as earlier as they are trying to suggest they are.
elbows
Well-Known Member
And at least the fucking document is written in such a way that there are plenty of bits of it that I can wave in the face of any peers, family members etc that think I'm some kind of freak for still treading extremely carefully in the months ahead. And although the plan gives businesses the green light for all sorts of shit, it still includes lip service to enough pandemic principals that employees can point out if they come under pressure to do something they arent comfortable with by management.
Supine
Newt Member
I’m starting a new work contract next week and it means I’ll be working away from home for most of the next six months.
i honestly think I’m in more danger of catching covid in the next few months than i have been for the last 18.
Boris is a reckless idiot. Everything Whittey said contradicted his news on loosening restrictions.
i honestly think I’m in more danger of catching covid in the next few months than i have been for the last 18.
Boris is a reckless idiot. Everything Whittey said contradicted his news on loosening restrictions.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yes there is quite the collection of groups that will have good cause to claim they've been treated in that way in the pandemic, backed up by a fair amount of evidence. So I do expect this side of things will get some attention at the inquiry. Relatively strong language for an inquiry may end up being used in regards some of the findings and recommendations in this area, and then there will be the usual spectacle of the government claiming they will take the finding on board, but trying to get away with not learning the lessons and doing as little as possible.
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
It's nice to be reminded from time to time why I'm right not to bother watching broadcast television.
elbows
Well-Known Member
In terms of when Whitty talks about a specific public health measure that he supports and doesnt think should be ditched or seen as something abnormal to be eliminated as soon as ossible, yes the differences are clear. Simialr to a painful press conference discussion between Johnson and Van Tam about masks some time ago.
But Whitty is also always very keen to point out that ministers make the decisions and what a terribly hard balancing act they have. He is part of the establishment that will sometimes justify the unjustifiable in the name of that balance and the practicalities of what the service can actually offer.
I also groaned at his line about how the NHS is an emergency service so it will always be able to cope with whatever emergencies are thrown at it. But the implication of that is that its only true because an emergency service is allowed to cut standards and what can reasonably be expected from it when it is faced with something that means it has to go into emergency firefighting mode. We saw in the first wave that in some parts of the country at certain moments, 'die at home to protect the NHS' was very much a consideration although obviously it was people like me pointing that out so bluntly rather than anyone at a podium doing so.
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
Yebbut...Richard Madeley
I mean, we're not talking "heavyweight political commentator" here.
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