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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

BillRiver said:
Summertime restrictions (I no longer refer to lockdowns when talking about the UK because we never have fully locked down) are much easier to tolerate for most people - meeting outside is bearable when it's warm and dry. Pleasant, even.

What I fear, as well as the sickness, disability, and deaths, is that all this risk taking now could lead to another winter of restrictions.

Winter restrictions, in the dark and the cold, are tough on a whole other level, ime.
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I agree entirely. My mental health took a real hit this past winter. Hasn't fully recovered and won't while we're still in the twilight zone thanks to this government. I'm far from the only or the worst either (I'm alive after all ffs)
 
elbows said:
Part of the reason I find such press conferences hilarious is how desperate they are these days to point out what a firebraker advantage school holidays offer, in contrast to how desperate they were to downplay the positive effect of school closures on pandemic waves when they were bullshitting their way through press conferences in the first half of March 2020.
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A very good point. The government and its shills like that ghoul Harries banging on about schools not being a vector for covid now saying how great the holidays are coming as this will naturally lower cases is more rank hypocrisy and plain opportunist bullshittery
 
prunus said:
Is that anything other than (partial) herd immunity? Ie it's better if the next X million people who catch it do so spread over summer rather than all at once in winter? It really is just you're all on your own now, good luck, and if you're unable to protect yourself to extent you'd like because eg you work in a shop or drive a bus, well, maybe next time you'll think about that before deciding to be poor.

Cunts the lot of them.
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Yes in some key ways it is that, a reworking of their original plan A at the start of the pandemic, and a reworking of some of the rhetoric that went with it. Vallances doomed herd immunity justification that they tried in desperation just before that plan died mid March 2020, was that if we pushed down too hard on the curve to really suppress things, it would just bounce back again later when we dont want it, eg in winter.

I would say that this whole population immunity side of things is a big chunk of the governments approach, but its not quite the whole thing. Hence the reason why the 19th wont be a full freedom day in the way some demanded. Even this shit, reckless government is still wary enough to have left some other options available to them if they cant make the numbers add up. So yeah its herd immunity via a combination of infections and vaccination, with some stuff left in place to attempt to keep R within a certain range they think the system can cope with.

If there wasnt a school summer holiday coming, with its expected effects on R, then I'm not exactly sure what they'd have tried in order to create a compatible version of this plan. Probably they would have had to keep a number of other restrictions in place on July 19th compared to what they've actually gone for via the wiggle room that school holidays provide. Which also implies that once schools are back again after the summer holiday, if population immunity levels have not unlocked a very different picture in terms of potential for more waves of notable size, they will have to do something to compensate for that. Or just do what they did last year and ignore the problem for as long as possible and then have to slam on some really quite hard brakes some months further down the line.
 
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S☼I said:
A very good point. The government and its shills like that ghoul Harries banging on about schools not being a vector for covid now saying how great the holidays are coming as this will naturally lower cases is more rank hypocrisy and plain opportunist bullshittery
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Although every time that comes up, I feel the need to mention that some of the impact school closures have on reducing R is because this affects adult contact mixing patterns too, so its not just about direct transmission in schools.

Modellers may have tended to only look at the direct effects, ie school children mixing patterns during term time vs during holidays though.

When it comes to the modelling, this is the sort of assumptions that were used (in this case from the Imperial College modelling paper from June). Some care is required to interpret this because the R numbers here are for the previous Alpha variant, and dont take into account the impact of increasing immunity. So I expect they take these numbers, multiply by a factor to cover Delta being a more transmissive variant, and then combine that with their expectations of the immunity/susceptibility picture over time.

Central Scenario
School holidays: 2.70 (2.04 – 3.51)
School terms: 3.00 (2.33 – 3.80)

Higher R following full NPI lifting:
School holidays: 4.20 (3.51– 4.98)
School terms: 4.50 (3.81 – 5.28)

In other words with the Alpha variant they were using a 0.3 decrease in R during school holidays.
 
I dont get the same mileage out of examining the words of the BBCs Nick Triggle as I used to, but in the interests of completeness and future comparison between the different waves and the messages that swirled around each time, I will do so once again.

I've called him 'partially reformed' this year, because the only way was up for him compared to the shit he tried to sell in March 2020 and September 2020. Its still his job to frame things in a rather establishment way, but there are signs that he has at least learnt how to position his message so that he doesnt look so instantly and comprehensively foolish if the plan goes horribly wrong. In this case, via his first sentence and his last.

No country in the world has attempted to lift restrictions like this - in the face of rapidly rising cases driven by the new, more infectious Delta variant.

Some say it would be better to wait until autumn when all adults will have had the chance to get a second vaccine dose.

That may sound good in principle, but scientists advising government seem to be backing a summer lifting.
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Unlocking was always going to drive up infections. And the problem with trying to delay that is the risk of a surge in cases at a much worse time.

By the autumn schools will be back - and we can see the huge disruption the rise in cases in recent weeks has had.

People will also be outdoors more in the summer months, which could help flatten the peak.
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But perhaps most importantly you risk running into the flu season.

That is when the NHS is under most pressure, while a Covid infection followed by flu in quick succession puts the vulnerable even more at risk.

The move is not without risk. The government is banking on the wall of immunity built up by the vaccination programme stemming these rises soon.
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From the analysis section of Covid: Most rules set to end in England, says PM

As usual with these relatively narrow framing and parroting exercises, much is still missing from this picture. So I'm not about to give him an award for pandemic journalism. But I note the wiggle room and all that is not said.
 
glitch hiker said:
Landlords and bosses will of course be celebrating. Could this be a summer/autumn of evictions?
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Section 21 notice period drops back down to 2 months in October. The de facto moratorium on enforcement of possession orders will presumably be out the window as well.
 
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I have not read the SAGE document that the Mirror are on about in this article yet.

www.mirror.co.uk

SAGE warn of 'significant risk' from scrapping Covid rules in grim new papers

SAGE scientists warned the government step four of the roadmap 'may recreate the conditions for super spreader events' and stringent measures might be needed to bring cases down again
www.mirror.co.uk www.mirror.co.uk

"There is significant risk in allowing prevalence to rise, even if hospitalisations & deaths are kept low by vaccination," the document reads.

"If it were necessary to reduce prevalence to low levels again...then restrictive measures would be required for much longer."
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They warned the poor and people from a minority ethnic background have higher risk of infection and lower vaccination rates - and that this meant an increase in infections is likely to "increase health inequalities in Covid-related illness and death."
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"It is notable that countries (e.g. New Zealand) that have near-zero Covid-19 have decided to retain some baseline measures (e.g. wearing of masks on public transport) to reduce the impact of occasional outbreaks."
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This bit, about vaccinatation certificates, in the guardian writeup of what was announced today -
"The document outlining the full plans noted that certificates could be used to help keep businesses open “if the country is facing a difficult situation in autumn or winter”.

so yeah, if this is "irreversible" like PM kept saying the other day i'd be v surprised.
 
bimble said:
This bit, about vaccinatation certificates, in the guardian writeup of what was announced today -
"The document outlining the full plans noted that certificates could be used to help keep businesses open “if the country is facing a difficult situation in autumn or winter”.

so yeah, if this is "irreversible" like PM kept saying the other day i'd be v surprised.
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You are correct, it is absolutely reversible, and it will be reversed if and when the hospital numbers threaten to overwhelm the NHS.

Personally I'm going to try and enjoy the relative freedom* while we have it because I struggle to see us getting through winter without restrictions.

*While staying safe
 
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brogdale said:
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This is the document covering todays announcements. Much of it is quotable so I will have to restrict myself to just a few key points.

There will still be high levels of infection and illness and therefore disruption to lives, the economy and delivery of public services.
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Retain contingency measures to respond to unexpected events, while accepting that further cases, hospitalisations and deaths will occur as the country learns to live with COVID-19.
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Businesses must not require a self-isolating worker to come to work, and should make sure that workers and customers who feel unwell do not attend the setting.
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It will remain a legal requirement for people to self-isolate if they test positive or are told to do so by NHS Test and Trace.
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Individuals may choose to limit the close contact they have with those they do not usually live with in order to reduce the risk of catching or spreading COVID-19, particularly if they are clinically extremely vulnerable. It is important to respect and be considerate of those who may wish to take a more cautious approach as restrictions are lifted.
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www.gov.uk

COVID-19 Response: Summer 2021

www.gov.uk www.gov.uk

I will cover some stuff to do with schools and the governments ambitions to remove certain forms of self isolation in another post.
 
So in regards removing schools bubbles, and the timing of that and other changes to self-isolation rules, thre is this sort of stuff. They've given themselves a bit of wiggle room and as expected the timing for some of this shit is not till later.

  • The Government will change the controls that apply in early years, schools, colleges and higher education institutions to maintain a baseline of protective measures while maximising attendance and minimising disruption to children and young people’s education. The Government’s intention is that from step 4 children will no longer need to be in consistent groups (‘bubbles’), and early years settings, schools or colleges will not be required to routinely carry out contact tracing, which will help to minimise the number of children isolating. Contact tracing in specific educational settings would only be triggered if deemed necessary in response to a local outbreak.
  • The Government also intends to exempt under 18s who are close contacts of a positive case from the requirement to self-isolate, in line with the approach for those who are fully vaccinated (as set out below). Further detail will be published in due course and the changes are likely to come into effect later in the summer. There will be no restrictions on in-person teaching and learning in universities.
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The Government expects the Test, Trace and Isolate system will remain necessary through the autumn and winter.

Continued take-up and compliance is essential to supporting the country in living with the virus through autumn and winter.
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The Government intends to exempt people who have been fully vaccinated from the requirement to self-isolate if they are a contact of a positive case, with a similar exemption for under 18s (as above). Anyone who tests positive will still need to self-isolate regardless of their vaccination status. Further details will be published in due course and the changes are likely to come into effect later in the summer.

Until at least the end of September, self-isolation enforcement and support will otherwise continue as it is now.
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As for the emergency brakes they are retaining:

The Government will maintain contingency plans for reimposing economic and social restrictions at a local, regional or national level if evidence suggests they are necessary to suppress or manage a dangerous variant. Such measures would only be re-introduced as a last resort to prevent unsustainable pressure on the NHS. The Government will also maintain the current regulations until 28 September that enable local authorities to respond to serious and imminent public health threats. The Government will also publish an updated COVID-19 contain outbreak management framework for local areas in due course.
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And there are a few other things in the document that hint at how much local public health authorities will still be able to intervene in specific outbreaks.
 
Disabled women have begun a three-week protest to highlight “appalling” research findings that showed they were almost twice as likely to die from COVID-19 during the pandemic as non-disabled women.

Disabled women decide ‘enough is enough’ and launch protest over pandemic deaths

They said the research showed that disabled women have been treated as “collateral damage” by the government during the pandemic.

About 20 disabled members of the Women’s Equality Party (WEP) and allies – including the party’s co-founder, Sandi Toksvig – were outside the Houses of Parliament yesterday (pictured)) to begin their #91Percent campaign.

The party wants to ensure that the official inquiry into the handling of the pandemic crisis examines its impact on disabled people, including the disproportionate loss of life faced by disabled women.
 
BillRiver said:
Thank you elbows
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No problem.

So as far as I can judge, plenty of the brakes that exist already in terms of specific outbreak responses at a local level will still be in place for the current wave. The stuff I've mentioned in recent weeks that is nowhere near as comprehensive as lockdowns etc, but is still something that has an effect and that causes obvious disruption and a sense that life is not 'back to normal'.

Even the school stuff doesnt necessarily amount to that much less disruption - it sounds like it may stop disruption when the number of children testing positive is a few, but notable school outbreaks will probably still lead to plenty being told to self-isolate, or the schools themselves shutting down certain stuff for a while, as already happens. And when staff catch it things wont change much until the broader, and more vaguely timed changes for vaccinated adults isolating when they've been in contact with someone positive come in. And the proposed timing of these school changes means the new system wont really get a chance to demonstrate itself before the summer holidays begin, so in some sense they arent really making this change as earlier as they are trying to suggest they are.
 
And at least the fucking document is written in such a way that there are plenty of bits of it that I can wave in the face of any peers, family members etc that think I'm some kind of freak for still treading extremely carefully in the months ahead. And although the plan gives businesses the green light for all sorts of shit, it still includes lip service to enough pandemic principals that employees can point out if they come under pressure to do something they arent comfortable with by management.
 
I’m starting a new work contract next week and it means I’ll be working away from home for most of the next six months.

i honestly think I’m in more danger of catching covid in the next few months than i have been for the last 18.

Boris is a reckless idiot. Everything Whittey said contradicted his news on loosening restrictions.
 
Dystopiary said:
They said the research showed that disabled women have been treated as “collateral damage” by the government during the pandemic.

About 20 disabled members of the Women’s Equality Party (WEP) and allies – including the party’s co-founder, Sandi Toksvig – were outside the Houses of Parliament yesterday (pictured)) to begin their #91Percent campaign.

The party wants to ensure that the official inquiry into the handling of the pandemic crisis examines its impact on disabled people, including the disproportionate loss of life faced by disabled women.
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Yes there is quite the collection of groups that will have good cause to claim they've been treated in that way in the pandemic, backed up by a fair amount of evidence. So I do expect this side of things will get some attention at the inquiry. Relatively strong language for an inquiry may end up being used in regards some of the findings and recommendations in this area, and then there will be the usual spectacle of the government claiming they will take the finding on board, but trying to get away with not learning the lessons and doing as little as possible.
 
Supine said:
Boris is a reckless idiot. Everything Whittey said contradicted his news on loosening restrictions.
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In terms of when Whitty talks about a specific public health measure that he supports and doesnt think should be ditched or seen as something abnormal to be eliminated as soon as ossible, yes the differences are clear. Simialr to a painful press conference discussion between Johnson and Van Tam about masks some time ago.

But Whitty is also always very keen to point out that ministers make the decisions and what a terribly hard balancing act they have. He is part of the establishment that will sometimes justify the unjustifiable in the name of that balance and the practicalities of what the service can actually offer.

I also groaned at his line about how the NHS is an emergency service so it will always be able to cope with whatever emergencies are thrown at it. But the implication of that is that its only true because an emergency service is allowed to cut standards and what can reasonably be expected from it when it is faced with something that means it has to go into emergency firefighting mode. We saw in the first wave that in some parts of the country at certain moments, 'die at home to protect the NHS' was very much a consideration although obviously it was people like me pointing that out so bluntly rather than anyone at a podium doing so.
 
MickiQ said:
That was pretty shit to be honest what's her politics got to do with it? He might as well as said "Why should we take you seriously when you're wearing a red jumper and clearly have no fashion sense?"
The woman was presenting a scientific argument, he should have either brought on a scientist with a different view or have been honest and said "Other concerns overide the science" which is also a valid argument not tried to discredit her because he disagreed with her politics.
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Yebbut...Richard Madeley :hmm: I mean, we're not talking "heavyweight political commentator" here.
 
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