Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[FridgeMagnet]

I dont believe in paying any attention to coercive ways to 'encourage' vaccination at a stage where plenty of people who wants to be vaccinated havent been dealt with by the system yet.

The younger folk where I work are desperate to get vaccinated. They queue up in the rain whenever a local centre says they are doing their age group. They don't want to infect their families and they don't want to catch it themselves.

 

[2hats]

Death secretary, whilst doing the rounds today, mentions that the latest advice he has from SAGE* is that B.1.617.2 is "about 40% more transmissible" (than B.1.1.7).

Covid Delta variant ‘about 40% more transmissible’, says Matt Hancock

Under-30s to be offered jabs from next week but variant makes decision on easing rules in England ‘more difficult’

www.theguardian.com

For context (Warwick SPI-M-O model):

* no references to published analysis provided.

 

[LDC]

The younger folk where I work are desperate to get vaccinated. They queue up in the rain whenever a local centre says they are doing their age group. They don't want to infect their families and they don't want to catch it themselves.

Anecdote obviously, but yeah the 18 year I know and her friends think the whole anti-vax thing is mental and they'd all get the vaccine happily. She'd never heard of the 5G etc. stuff until I told her about it and thought it was quite mad.

Is it more a older or middle aged person thing you think?

 

[elbows]

Death secretary, whilst doing the rounds today, mentions that the latest advice he has from SAGE* is that B.1.617.2 is "about 40% more transmissible" (than B.1.1.7).

Covid Delta variant ‘about 40% more transmissible’, says Matt Hancock

Under-30s to be offered jabs from next week but variant makes decision on easing rules in England ‘more difficult’

www.theguardian.com

For context (Warwick SPI-M-O model):

* no references provided.

I sure could do with some updated modelling that also includes a newer set of assumptions including the possibility that hospitalisation might be 2.5x more likely with the Delta strain.

I forgot how much, if any, seasonal factors Warwick built into their model.

Oh well, I can still use this stuff as a foundation upon which I can bend the graph in different directions based on emerging analysis or my own whims. We know that the models will never be perfect and there are so many variables and simplifications.

I am currently searching for right-wing people who may have shitty views about lockdown etc, and how much weight vaccines can reasonably be expected to carry, how many hospitalisations are considered tolerable. Not those who bark and misunderstand all the detail, but rather those who are prepared to do their own modelling because, for example, they are economists. They have a bias towards favouring unlocking and so if the recent data makes even them poop their pants and concede that the June 21st date is an unwise time to proceed, that will be useful to know. I have found one candidate on twitter already but I dont want to give them any publicity, at least not until I see what they do with last weeks estimates regarding transmission advantage, hospitalisation, vaccine escape etc. When the time comes I will share their findings, unless they indulge in such mental gymnastics that their results have no credibility at all. Reason for me to perform this exercise is that they have very different biases and expectations compared to me, so if even they are forced to concede defeat at this juncture, this will be a useful guide beyond me just listening to my usual trusted sources who are consistently on my side of the debate regarding pandemic management and public health.

 

[maomao]

Death secretary, whilst doing the rounds today, mentions that the latest advice he has from SAGE* is that B.1.617.2 is "about 40% more transmissible" (than B.1.1.7).

Covid Delta variant ‘about 40% more transmissible’, says Matt Hancock

Under-30s to be offered jabs from next week but variant makes decision on easing rules in England ‘more difficult’

www.theguardian.com

For context (Warwick SPI-M-O model):

* no references provided.

So 40% more than Kent not 40% more than OG covid.

And Kent was 50% more transmissible. So the new one is 210% more transmissible than the original.

 

[Maltin]

So 40% more than Kent not 40% more than OG covid.

And Kent was 50% more transmissible. So the new one is 210% more transmissible than the original.

110%

 

[maomao]

110%

Sorry. 210% as transmissible. 110% more.

 

[FridgeMagnet]

Is it more a older or middle aged person thing you think?

Definitely skews towards 30somethings IME (note that this means "millennials").

 

[elbows]

Given my tendency to focus on hospital transmission of the virus, you can imagine what I think about the implications of the Delta variant and UK hospitals when I read articles like this one about a hospital outbreak in Finland:

Indian coronavirus variant behind hospital outbreak in Kanta-Häme, Finland

THE INDIAN VARIANT of the new coronavirus has been identified as the cause of a string of 80 infections detected in hospitals in Kanta-Häme, Southern Finland. “The Indian variant is extremely easily transmissible. There’s reason for concern. You can’t belittle this because it’s clear the...

www.helsinkitimes.fi

THE INDIAN VARIANT of the new coronavirus has been identified as the cause of a string of 80 infections detected in hospitals in Kanta-Häme, Southern Finland.

“The Indian variant is extremely easily transmissible. There’s reason for concern. You can’t belittle this because it’s clear the protective measures that used to be enough have simply not been enough,” Sally Leskinen, the chief medical officer of Kanta-Häme Hospital District, told Helsingin Sanomat.

“Wearing surgical masks in all situations and meeting patients with symptoms of an infection in complete protective equipment wasn't enough now.”

“The virus has transmitted easily. In the wards that had infections before the first cases were detected and the chains of infection were contained, 40 per cent of patients became infected,” highlighted Leskinen.

What is surprising about the cluster is that roughly four-fifths of the infected people had received at least the first dose of a coronavirus vaccine. Although the majority of staff had also received the booster dose, 11 per cent of staff members in the ward where the outbreak began have tested positive for the virus. About half of them developed symptoms from the infection, some relatively serious ones.

Lehtinen said to Helsingin Sanomat that vaccinations can make detecting infections more challenging, as even members of risk groups may only exhibit mild symptoms at the onset of infection. The hospital district is consequently mulling over stepping up its measures to slow down the epidemic.

The vaccine details in regards the cluster really isnt that surprising, and more details than are offered in that article about how many only had one dose of vaccine would help understanding.

 

[elbows]

The younger folk where I work are desperate to get vaccinated. They queue up in the rain whenever a local centre says they are doing their age group. They don't want to infect their families and they don't want to catch it themselves.

Yeah here is a bloody Telegraph video but given the contents Im posting it anyway regardless of the shitty source.

 

[LeytonCatLady]

The younger folk where I work are desperate to get vaccinated. They queue up in the rain whenever a local centre says they are doing their age group. They don't want to infect their families and they don't want to catch it themselves.

Yep. I hope Matt Hancock's ashamed of himself for his scapegoating of "young people".

 

[FridgeMagnet]

Yep. I hope Matt Hancock's ashamed of himself for his scapegoating of "young people".

Unfortunately the man is a crooked murderous liar generally and I don't think he has a concept of shame.

 

[IC3D]

I wonder how many young people want it to protect older family refusnicks they are worried about.

 

[BristolEcho]

Unfortunately the man is a crooked murderous liar generally and I don't think he has a concept of shame.

To busy saving lives and putting himself front and centre of anything positive that is done in spite of him. He doesn't have time to feel shame.

 

[SpookyFrank]

The younger folk where I work are desperate to get vaccinated. They queue up in the rain whenever a local centre says they are doing their age group. They don't want to infect their families and they don't want to catch it themselves.

But it's the fully-vaccinated old timers who run politics and the press who decide when restrictions are removed so...

 

[NoXion]

I fucking hate those newspaper covers. There's a stench of needy desperation about them.

 

[Sunray]

Yeah here is a bloody Telegraph video but given the contents Im posting it anyway regardless of the shitty source.

Of the Tory press, I think it's the best of a bad lot, at least it's actually news.

 

[elbows]

Of the Tory press, I think it's the best of a bad lot, at least it's actually news.

They've been one of the worst for trying to find new ways to demand and justify an anti-restrictions approach to the pandemic at various key moments that have ended up costing lives.

 

[BillRiver]

I think they're useful for factual info on specific subjects, eg. military and arms trade, but really bad for other stuff eg. opinions about restrictions during this pandemic.

 

[Sunray]

They've been one of the worst for trying to find new ways to demand and justify an anti-restrictions approach to the pandemic at various key moments that have ended up costing lives.

I didn't say they were great, I just pointed out it's a reasonable source of news. If you want an alternative, search through youtube, I can guarantee there will be something on there. Just might take a while to find.

 

[elbows]

I wasnt at all impressed with some aspects of this article and luckily people who know a lot more than me didnt seem impressed either. Katrinas post is actually a thread if you want to read more detail.

Data on Delta variant splits scientists on lifting final Covid restrictions

Sage group advises against easing social distancing on 21 June, but others say it is too early to assess risks

www.theguardian.com

 

[existentialist]

Yep. I hope Matt Hancock's ashamed of himself for his scapegoating of "young people".

I am not sure that Hancock - or any of the Cabinet - is capable of shame in the way normal people would experience it. In many ways, the way this Cabinet was packed, the selection process actively favoured shameless, mendacious, corrupt, self-serving fools with zero moral compunction. Starting with the Brexiteer loyalists, and working ethically downwards from there.

 

[glitch hiker]

To busy saving lives and putting himself front and centre of anything positive that is done in spite of him. He doesn't have time to feel shame.

Shame is outsourced at public expense

 

[5t3IIa]

When is the next press conference please? When is the PM one to annouce what he has decided re: 21/6? Thank you.

 

[Sue]

When is the next press conference please? When is the PM one to annouce what he has decided re: 21/6? Thank you.

22/6 or 23/6 I reckon...

 

[cupid_stunt]

When is the next press conference please? When is the PM one to annouce what he has decided re: 21/6? Thank you.

The announcement re-21/6 is due next Mon. 14/6.

Handjob is updating the commons today at around 3.30pm, there may be a hint in that, but probably not.

 

[5t3IIa]

The announcement re-21/6 is due next Mon. 14/6.

Thank you!

 

[elbows]

PHE are more overtly drawing attention to poorer protection from only 1 jab against the Delta variant in their public health messages:

 

[elbows]

I am currently searching for right-wing people who may have shitty views about lockdown etc, and how much weight vaccines can reasonably be expected to carry, how many hospitalisations are considered tolerable. Not those who bark and misunderstand all the detail, but rather those who are prepared to do their own modelling because, for example, they are economists. They have a bias towards favouring unlocking and so if the recent data makes even them poop their pants and concede that the June 21st date is an unwise time to proceed, that will be useful to know. I have found one candidate on twitter already but I dont want to give them any publicity, at least not until I see what they do with last weeks estimates regarding transmission advantage, hospitalisation, vaccine escape etc. When the time comes I will share their findings, unless they indulge in such mental gymnastics that their results have no credibility at all. Reason for me to perform this exercise is that they have very different biases and expectations compared to me, so if even they are forced to concede defeat at this juncture, this will be a useful guide beyond me just listening to my usual trusted sources who are consistently on my side of the debate regarding pandemic management and public health.

So far this attempt is a failure because the ring-winger I selected is too much of a shithead to have come out with anything useful yet in the wake of the updated Delta estimates last week.

So for today at least I am taking a different approach. I've found someone else who does modelling, and I am not for the moment going to analyse where they stand on the political spectrum or their track record in this pandemic so far. Instead I am just going to drw attention to the fact they've updated their modelling with new parameters and they have posted a lengthy thread on twitter that goes into the detail. I do not have the ability to judge the accuracy of their modelling and even if their model was spot on, there is still much uncertainty about various aspects of the Delta variant which they have to feed into the model. But given that we dont currently have any more recent official SPI-M modelling than the stuff done by three academic establishments in early May, this stuff will have to do:

 

[sheothebudworths]

Definitely skews towards 30somethings IME (note that this means "millennials").

The two I know (I work with them both in a kitchen where SD is almost impossible) are my age (51) and one is married to a GP.
I have no idea what his wife thinks about it, tbf, cos I can't abide even speakng to them about it anymore - just makes me rage.
He believes in aliens, too, mind you - which was mildly amusing until this.
The other one is just one of those who absorbs every batty claim she reads on Facebook as THE TRUTH, despite the fact that she has actually lost people to it.
She has also had it (caught during lockdown 2 from her bf who was living in a - different - shared house) but had pretty mild symptoms, so I guess that, along with the fact that both relatives were elderly, has fed into it all, too.