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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

Time for everyone to cross their fingers.

Latest data on transmissibility of Indian variant offers 'glimmer of hope', says Prof Ferguson​

It was introduced from overseas principally into people with Indian ethnicity, a higher chance of living in multi-generational households and often in quite deprived areas with high density housing. And so we’re trying to work out whether the rapid growth we’ve seen in areas such as Bolton is going to be typical of what we could expect elsewhere [ie, whether the Kent variant would have spread just as quickly, because of the social conditions], or is really what is called a founder effect, which is often seen in these circumstances.
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Then came the good news. Ferguson went on:

There’s a little bit of, I would say, a glimmer of hope from the recent data that whilst this variant does still appear to have a significant growth advantage, the magnitude of that advantage seems to have dropped a little bit with the most recent data. The curves are flattening a little. But it will take more time for us to be definitive about it.
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www.theguardian.com

UK Covid: Matt Hancock says final decision on further unlocking to be taken on 14 June – as it happened

Health secretary says government will make decision on unlocking on 14 June as cases of Indian variant rise 28% in two days
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
brogdale said:
We don't have to presume anything; they've told us why India didn't get put on the red-list when Pakistan and Bangladesh did.
Johnson said it was because the South African variant had been detected in Pakistan and Hancock said that travellers arriving from both there and Bangladesh had positive test rates 3 times the level of those from India.

They just haven't been able to produce any data to support those explanations yet.
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That wasn't the question I was answering, which is why there are still flights arriving from India and not Brazil/South Africa.
 
Hancock generally doesn't do the big lockdown announcements, that's Johnson's domain. My guess is it'll just be a numbers update combined with reassurances that the situation isn't that bad at the moment with a side portion of warnings for everyone to behave.

He'll probably look to control the narrative regarding the Indian variant. It was inevitable it would arrive in the UK etc etc. The narrative is one of the few things they have managed to control in this pandemic.
 
William of Walworth said:
With (understandable) talk of Johnson doing a U-turn over June 21st, do people think he'll just postpone the planned easing of restrictions for a few weeks?

Or toughen restrictions to the point of another big lockdown?

The latter seems somewhat less likely to me, because although vaccinations should not bear the whole burden, the programme is surely having a good effect?

Also, I don't (yet) think that there'll automatically be a major third wave (not lin the summer anyway -- winter quite possibly?), but I could easily end up being proved completely wrong about that :(
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It depends how accurate the modelling has been, which includes the various numbers and assumptions they feed into the model, and what scenarios they model.

The modelling expected a third wave in the summer even without the more transmissive variant, once steps 3 and 4 of the unlocking happened. But since there are a range of possibilities regarding vaccine rollout pace, vaccine effectiveness, peoples behaviour in terms of how cautious they remain and how low they keep their number of contacts, as well as unknowns about the degree to which seasonal factors will help over summer, there is no way to be certain at this point. If we manage to get through to the school summer holidays without cases exploding then that should help too.

In terms of predicting what Johnson will do, using history as a guide the picture is ugly. They never want to do the really draconian stuff until a situation that threatens hospital capacity is well under way. That phenomenon is likely to be even stronger this time around for various reasons including that plenty of people will not believe the sharp hospital and death side of the pandemic is still in effect in the vaccine era unless they get to see that unfolding in an undeniable way and at great scale. The prospect of responding appropriately at an earlier stage mostly relies on Johnson believing the expert forecasts in a way that he did not last September when the second wave was getting going.

And this time even if he should start to do the right thing earlier in the cycle than he did previously, there is likely to be greater political opposition. There are already signs that Labour will oppose local lockdowns etc, taking a stance somewhat similar to what happened with Burnham and Manchester in the second wave. I have every sympathy with those who will take such a stance because everyone can see how such things didnt work last time and were in some ways the worst of both worlds, or used as a delaying tactic in terms of doing what needed to be done on a national level. But its going to be hard for me to support positions that lead to more delays that will inevitably increase the wave size.

So I really do hope that we manage to avoid that situation fully taking shape in the first place. I'm not too optimistic about that but there is enough uncertainty in my mind that I am far from considering a very large, deadly wave to be completely inevitable in the months ahead. But neither would I bet heavily against it, because lets not forget that this was my stance, due to the modelling done, even before the more transmissive India variant concerns were added to the mix. But the modelling isnt perfect, so I simply have to keep a partially open mind.
 
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I don't believe for one minute Johnson has changed his views at all, there's no damascene moment here. For the last few months people around him have managed to get him saying the right things in public but every time he thinks he's off the record he has said something dumb.

The battle will be who will win out over the next few days and weeks. I won't be holding my breath (except in crowded indoor spaces).
 
elbows said:
And this time even if he should start to do the right thing earlier in the cycle than he did previously, there is likely to be greater political opposition.
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And I should have drawn attention to a significant aspect of such things - whether we are talking about direct opposition or very loud calls to take specific action, the vaccine era has provided people, the media and politicians with a very convenient thing to call for to the exclusion of other things that may actually be necessary:

"Roll the vaccine out quicker and to more age groups" will be the loudest cry and we've seen that already in the last week.

It sounds reasonable, and local authorities, Labour etc are so much more comfortable calling for that than anything else. And it should help a bit, if it cam actually be done. Its not widely expected to be a complete fix though, and I do worry that attention to that side of things will happen at the expense of other things that may be necessary.
 
Why aren’t local authorities calling for more resources to support self isolation & to do locally led track and trace?

Indie Sage had guests from Leicester and Newham on a couple of weeks ago giving the detail on their successes with this, Newham’s support for isolation sounded like what should be happening in all areas.
 
The wheels are slowly turning in terms of surge testing in my part of Nuneaton. They've now got as far as sticking a glossy leaflet through the door about how they will be delivering tests for everyone aged 2 or over tomorrow between 10.30am and 6.30pm.
 
Sounds like the sewage testing I've often bored on about has come in handy:

www.bbc.co.uk

Covid-19: More variant hotspots to get surge tests and jabs

The emergence of the Indian variant makes vaccinations "even more important", Matt Hancock says.
www.bbc.co.uk

Surge testing and jabs will be expanded to six new areas of concern in England to combat the spread of the Indian Covid variant, Matt Hancock has said.

These were identified using new techniques, including analysing waste water and travel patterns, he told a Downing Street briefing.
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Surge testing and vaccinations will now be introduced in:
  • Bedford
  • Burnley
  • Hounslow
  • Kirklees
  • Leicester
  • and North Tyneside
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Oh I see that article has anaysis by Nick Triggle. Historically someone who I used as an example of the most reckless wishful thinking and dubious pandemic messaging, he had improved since he learnt the hard way that his stance last September was fatally flawed.

So now here he is talking up the good news when it comes to variants and vaccines:

There's growing confidence the vaccines will remain effective against the variants that are emerging.
Lab work using blood from vaccinated people to see how well they block the variant viruses from infecting cells shows some drop-off in potency - and this is what has caused such concern in recent months.
The biggest drop-off by far is for the South African variant with early reports suggesting the Indian variant only weakens the vaccine effect a little more than the UK variant does.
But lab work only takes you so far. Emerging real world evidence is what is giving scientists the most hope.
We know from the UK rollout that vaccines are highly effective against that UK variant. Studies in India where AstraZeneca has been used are also encouraging - although they are yet to be formally published.
But perhaps the most promising is data collected in Qatar on the South African variant.
It suggested the Pfizer vaccine's ability to stop serious illness remains intact and there was only a relatively small loss in blocking mild infections.
In the fight between vaccines and variants, it's the vaccines that are winning.
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I am very happy for any good news on the vaccine front. But people should understand the limits - concerns about a third wave involve a lot of the dynamics of transmission and overall population immunity, so even when no end of good news arrives in terms of how much protection against severe illness vaccines, I would not recommend getting too carried away. And I dont advise viewing things as a simple battle, so when he says things like "In the fight between vaccines and variants, it's the vaccines that are winning." I do groan a bit. Its the sort of shit I wouldnt want to say because even if such sentiments didnt come back to haunt us in the next few weeks or months, this could be a long-term balancing act and premature declarations of victory are unhelpful.
 
I havent watched the press conference yet but I will try to do so later. I did note this quote from the BBC live updates page at 17:47 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57168021

Prof Van Tam says: "I think scientists are sure this virus is more transmissible than the strain it is beginning to replace" but we do not know yet how transmissible it is.

He says the data should "firm up some time next week" when it will be the first time when we have a "ranging shot at what the transmissibility increase is".

This will feed into models into how it looks in terms of a resurgence and minister will be able to make further decisions, he says.
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You can now book your first jab if...
  • you're aged 34 or over
  • you'll turn 34 before 1 July 2021
Considering they are speeding up 2 doses, they seem to be doing well in also working down the age groups, there's some suggestions that all over 30's will be able to book by the end of next week.
 
elbows said:
I havent watched the press conference yet but I will try to do so later. I did note this quote from the BBC live updates page at 17:47 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57168021
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What did you think about Hancock giving it the big one about the az jab and how it's Britain's gift to the world etc? There is a point in there somewhere in that there was heavy investment from the UK taxpayer in its development. Also the point about it being a far more practical vaccine then some of the others particularly for developing countries because it is being sold at cost.

All fair enough points but it seemed more about deflecting the growing criticism around vaccine inequality.
 
Teaboy said:
What did you think about Hancock giving it the big one about the az jab and how it's Britain's gift to the world etc? There is a point in there somewhere in that there was heavy investment from the UK taxpayer in its development. Also the point about it being a far more practical vaccine then some of the others particularly for developing countries because it is being sold at cost.

All fair enough points but it seemed more about deflecting the growing criticism around vaccine inequality.
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I think it's more about the UK government making a land grab on the vaccination programme - the part of the whole Covid response that they had least to do with, and the bit that's been most successful.
 
Holidaying Brits should expect a knock on the door when quarantining at home upon their return, Home Secretary Priti Patel has said.

Officials have the capacity to carry out 10,000 home visits a day, the Daily Mail reported, and efforts would be concentrated on those who have visited amber list countries, including France and Spain, to make sure they are complying with staying at home for 10 days.
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What's that smell, coming from that farm? :hmm:
 
My workplace has issued a worldwide edict that we are still a “work from office” company but they recognise that people have reformed their lives around WFH in the last year so there will be a transition period, going via 3 in/2 out to eventually land at a permanent 4 in/1 out. Going from biggest to smallest areas, the ex-US and European regions followed suit in backing that up with a slightly greater focus on recognising that there will need to be regional variations and allowance for local regulations.

The UK part of the company hasn’t yet issued its own statement but I fully expect them to also (attempt to) impose this. It may stick, it may not. The London office already had a lot of people doing at least one day WFH even pre-pandemic, despite that being against official worldwide company policy. It wouldn’t surprise me if it’s tougher to get these people to return to 4/1 than management are anticipating. If people just quietly carry on doing 3/2 or even 2/3 I’m not sure there is much stomach for confrontation. We’ll see, I guess.
 
elbows said:
Pant tearing reprise!

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It's pretty obvious he's really saying we should have held off on phase 3 of 'freedom' because why else say to people be cautious unless phase 3 wasn't as safe as Bozo would have us believe.

Given the number of infections remains pretty static and, IIRC, slightly higher than the September new school year debacle, could it be that we have reached the safe limit of what we can do? Yet no doubt the Tories will want their victory lap on June 21st.
 
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