bimble
floofy
yep. I hesitated too. Saturday 22nd is in my diary as 'definitely not dead from clot'.
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
- Start date
bimble
floofy
She's 45. I don't know enough to make a judgement on whether her fears that she's at heightened risk are baseless or not, but do know she's had really crappy experiences in the past of being told to stop worrying by a GP when in fact she was seriously ill. Maybe they will offer her an alternative if she waits longer, that might be what she's thinking not sure.
Yup I'm furious the government has yet again failed to do the obvious and make some proper effort to secure the borders. The Indian variant was always going to get here but if they could just have delayed it for a couple of months we would have been in a much better position with the vaccine rollout.
Oh well, here we are again.
Oh well, here we are again.
Yes we know this.
bimble
floofy
This is a good article, i don't know what to take from all the figures in it though.
www.theguardian.com
Vaccine hesitancy narrative fuelling divisions in Bolton, says MP
Yasmin Qureshi says rising Covid rates not fault of certain communities
weepiper
I fix the machines that fight climate change
This is not a particularly helpful take, given how many women are on the pill. Is there a higher risk of blood clots for women who are already also at a higher risk because they're on the pill? What amount of risk is acceptable? Also, women don't just pop the pill without thinking about the side effects and it's a bit unfair to suggest we do so it's silly to worry about the vaccine.
Caveat, I will take whatever vaccine they offer me at my appointment because I'm more concerned about Covid than blood clots. But I understand why some people are anxious.
bimble
floofy
Yeah but you don't feel the weight of that choice you're making, to take that risk, every morning when you take yr pill, i think thats at least a part of it.
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
I haven't made any such suggestion. It is simply about comparing risk (and, I must admit, I hadnt realised the risk was that high from taking the pill). Fears (perfectly understandable and reasonable ones) are being stoked and ramped up all around and it is generally useful in such instances to make comprisons to indicate the general degree of risk.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
I think the figures paint a pretty simple picture. The uptake of vaccines has been high, even in areas with lower uptake, and the spread of the virus in Bolton has been primarily among the unvaccinated groups. That's backed up by the heat maps on the govt website.This is a good article, i don't know what to take from all the figures in it though.
Vaccine hesitancy narrative fuelling divisions in Bolton, says MP
Yasmin Qureshi says rising Covid rates not fault of certain communities
Deeply depressing that this is even being discussed in these terms. It's fucking obvious why this has happened and who is to blame for it. Infuriating because all the signs were that the Kent variant was on its way out.
bimble
floofy
who is that man with the sad face that the gov sent out to defend them?
platinumsage
HaveMyPassword123
She keeps saying in various places "we now know that it's about 50% more transmissible than the Kent variant" which we absolutely do not know yet, and also she keeps pushing the notion that vaccine hesitancy is not the major issue based only on the government statement that it has infected six people in a hospital in Bolton who have been vaccinated, despite five of those only having one dose, and possibly without having time to gain any from it yet. There is a lot more data out there on vaccine hesitancy which suggests she shouldn't be brushing it under the carpet.
I'm not sure she knows anything much about viruses or epidemiology at all, her background is in inequality research isn't it?
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
George
My brain always hears his surname as 'useless'.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I wonder if Johnson is toast if it is significantly more transmissive and causes a large 3rd wave.
I dont find it easy to predict pandemic politics but it would be quite the combination of doom for Johnson:
Another wave of death.
More restrictions / not the summer Johnson led people to expect, and his 'irreversible' claims shown to be bullshit.
Johnsons failure to stop this variant being seeded widely in the UK via imports.
The vaccine bounce not working as well if the limits of current vaccination levels and vaccines in general is demonstrated via a large wave.
Whatever happens politically, I'm not looking forward to finding out what a 50-60% more transmissible strain looks like at this present moment, so I hope it turns out not to have that transmission advantage. I'm not sure where that hope is really supposed to come from though, other than the current estimates being rather tentative.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
The notion that he delayed the red-listing of India on the basis of a trade deal prospect also has the potential to cause considerable political damage as it indirectly meshes Brexit and sleaze into the potential 3rd wave body pile.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yes and I also left 'failing to pause the May relaxation step' and whatever other failures he makes while cases grow off my list.
I suppose I expect it has a transmission advantage because there are plenty of signs of it becoming the dominant strain and it if thats the case then it is getting an advantage from somewhere. In the hope department this only really leaves the idea its not quite as transmissive as feared, or that the modelling is wrong about how much protection is in effect from vaccines so far/how big a wave we'd expect.
I suppose I expect it has a transmission advantage because there are plenty of signs of it becoming the dominant strain and it if thats the case then it is getting an advantage from somewhere. In the hope department this only really leaves the idea its not quite as transmissive as feared, or that the modelling is wrong about how much protection is in effect from vaccines so far/how big a wave we'd expect.
oryx
Sitting on the bok of the day
Much as I would like to see the demise of Johnson, and the sooner the better, I think he is more Teflon than toast.
He's seen off a failure to lock down early enough the first time, the highest death figures in Europe, the PPE crisis, the Cummings saga, various procurement sagas and I'm sure there are others I've missed, and those are just the Coronavirus related ones.
oryx
Sitting on the bok of the day
I'm going on the graph shown by the BBC. The UK has the highest number of deaths after the US, Brazil, India and Mexico.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Proportional to population, though?
And anyway, those figures are something of a nonsense. You have to look at excess deaths. Russia has had way more covid deaths than the UK in absolute terms. Judging by excess deaths, probably about three times more. Serbia hides down most lists as well, and it's been worse than the UK too.]
Not seeking to excuse Johnson there. There are a variety of reasons why the UK could and should have been lower than many other places, at least as low as Ireland. The reasons why it wasn't are Johnson's government.
oryx
Sitting on the bok of the day
No, I don't mean the death rate, I mean the actual number of deaths.
I mean globally, the figures are not as meaningful, but comparing the UK with Italy, France, Germany and Spain doesn't seem that unreasonable.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
If you don't adjust for population, the figure is meaningless. If you want to compare countries you have to do two things - first adjust for population, and second ensure that you're comparing similar methodologies.
For example, one of the stories that is emerging is that of a number of Eastern European countries that largely missed the first wave fucking up very very badly in the second wave, often criminally so. Corruption, disorganisation and general shitness have led to huge numbers of deaths. But those countries are split into smaller chunks, so you might totally miss it just looking at individual country chunks and not adjusting.
oryx
Sitting on the bok of the day
But without going into statistical detail, there was a lot of talk about how bad our death figures were early in the pandemic, and it didn't seem to affect Johnson...which is kind of my point.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Sure. Britain could and should have done much better. That we didn't is ultimately Johnson's fault, and he's got away with it.
But there are many other countries whose people are saying the same thing.
oryx
Sitting on the bok of the day
Absolutely. The exasperating thing - well more than exasperating, tragic - is that Johnson is likely to continue to get away with it if we get a third wave.Sure. Britain could and should have done much better. That we didn't is ultimately Johnson's fault, and he's got away with it.
But there are many other countries whose people are saying the same thing.
He's under pressure from some backbenchers to press ahead with ending legal guidelines on 21 June and (so far) is likely to do so, in spite of everything pointing to this being an unwise move in the face of the Indian variant.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yeah, the second wave failings for months was missing from that.
I've said I dont find it easy to predict pandemic politics but I'd also say the same about politicians who have reputations for nothing sticking to them and being winners - its true until it isnt, and I wouldnt like to guess when that moment is going to arrive. It does tend to happene eventually though, see Trump for a modern example.
I suppose I do think there are reasons why he might not be forgiven for his failings this time round when he was the for the firt two waves, but we shall just have to wait and see. Well I'd still rather not get to find out because I dont want a third wave to happen, so I have probably started this conversation too soon.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Sorry I wasn't trying to pick a fight. I don't let off Johnson at all. He's done his best to fuck things up, but despite him, Britain does have functioning institutions.
But comparisons worldwide come up against countries with corrupt leaders and much less well functioning institutions to act as a bulwark against them. So, eg, Bulgaria has twice as many covid deaths than it admits to, far worse than the UK. At the height of the crisis they were turning people away from hospital. Their vaccination programme has been a disorganised joke. We don't hear much about it here as nobody gives much of a shit about what's happening in Bulgaria.
But comparisons worldwide come up against countries with corrupt leaders and much less well functioning institutions to act as a bulwark against them. So, eg, Bulgaria has twice as many covid deaths than it admits to, far worse than the UK. At the height of the crisis they were turning people away from hospital. Their vaccination programme has been a disorganised joke. We don't hear much about it here as nobody gives much of a shit about what's happening in Bulgaria.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
I've no idea why the BBC etc continue to present numbers unadjusted for population. It's not just meaningless but actively misleading.
Of course the UK or US would appear to be doing marvellously well if you presented 'number of people who haven't died of covid' in the same way.
Of course the UK or US would appear to be doing marvellously well if you presented 'number of people who haven't died of covid' in the same way.
Similar threads
