Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[maomao]

What's wrong with her legs?

She's trying to march straight legged while wearing a high waisted skirt.

 

[Teaboy]

what do you reckon, headed for another lockdown around.. September?

Maybe or maybe not. There are plenty of reasons why that might be the case but equally some very good reasons why it seems unlikely. Personally I think that June date is looking increasingly unwise but doing something unwise is Johnson's signature move.

I'm not sure there is much point in speculating about it though as all it does is raise anxiety. Or we can do as individuals is affect our own behaviour.

 

[Elpenor]

what do you reckon, headed for another lockdown around.. booked a trip around UK in late September

Just booked a trip around the UK for late September

 

[elbows]

what do you reckon, headed for another lockdown around.. September?

Impossible to predict exactly but modelling implied that any substantial third wave would be sooner than that, eg July. But there are plenty of unknowns to that including seasonal effects. There should also be more protection from vaccines at the population level as time goes on, so a wave that ame later could be much smaller. Obviously if a variant comes along that can bypass a substantial chunk of immunity then the picture would change. And when it comes to lockdowns, the timing of those is even harder to predict than the timing of waves, since we dont know how long Johnson would manage to delay the inevitable restrictions.

 

[existentialist]

What's wrong with her legs?

They're attached to a hateful, racist, power-hungry apparatchik?

 

[elbows]

What did you think about Hancock giving it the big one about the az jab and how it's Britain's gift to the world etc? There is a point in there somewhere in that there was heavy investment from the UK taxpayer in its development. Also the point about it being a far more practical vaccine then some of the others particularly for developing countries because it is being sold at cost.

All fair enough points but it seemed more about deflecting the growing criticism around vaccine inequality.

I dont think I've got anything new to say about that. When it comes to me getting upset about vaccine inequalities globally I've long taken the stance that the UK would have a few things it could point to in order to provide cover. In the past they clung to their COVAX funding commitments in order to excuse the other shit (eg actual supplies to countries at vital moments) and this is just another variation on that common theme.

 

[elbows]

There are already enough holes an weaknesses in test & trace, variant reporting etc to cause problems, so additional data issues are most unwelcome:

Covid: Test and Trace failure helped Indian variant spread, report says

Several councils did not receive up-to-date Covid data for almost three weeks, the BBC learns.

www.bbc.co.uk

Failures in England's test-and-trace system are partly responsible for a surge in the Indian variant in one of the worst affected parts of the country, a report seen by the BBC says.
For three weeks in April and May, eight local authorities in England did not have access to the full data on positive tests in their area.
The number of missing cases was highest in Blackburn with Darwen, Lancashire.
A recent surge in infections there has been linked to the Indian variant.

The other areas affected by what is thought to have been a technical glitch were Blackpool, York, Bath and North East Somerset, Bristol, North Somerset, Southend-on-Sea and Thurrock.

Between 21 April and 11 May, the system only provided details of a limited number of positive cases of coronavirus to the eight local authorities.
On 11 May, they were told by the Department of Health and Social Care that, over that period, 734 positive tests had not been reported.
According to a report by officials at one of the councils affected, the central test-and-trace system failed to notify its staff of cases, meaning their contacts could not be traced locally.

The Department of Health told Blackburn with Darwen Council that there were 164 cases it had been unaware of. The people affected were subsequently traced.
Another 130 cases were not reported, but, because they had passed the 10-day isolation period, could not be followed up.
Even when cases were uploaded to the system on 12 May, some key information, such as phone numbers or addresses, was still incomplete.

 

[elbows]

Given my unease with the giddy aspects of the vaccination phase, I wish I'd come up with this use of language:

"Vaccines may be a light at the end of the tunnel - but we cannot be blinded by that light."

The context, from the 12:35 entry on the BBC live updates page: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57183056

Countries should "rethink or avoid" international travel because of uncertainty over new variants, the World Health Organization's regional director for Europe says.

As the UK government faces criticism and confusion over its traffic light system for international travel, Hans Kluge says increased mobility in Europe could jeopardise the current fall in cases and small outbreaks could lead to "dangerous resurgences".

"Most of us are still susceptible to the virus and not vaccinated yet. Right now, in the face of a continued threat and new uncertainty, we need to continue to exercise caution, and rethink or avoid international travel," he tells a news conference.

He says the variant first identified in India is able to spread rapidly and could displace the Kent variant that is currently dominant in Europe.

But he says all variants that have emerged so far can be controlled with public health measures and all respond to approved vaccines.

 

[elbows]

Since I had a brief argument with someone about what numbers it was fair for the modellers to use for vaccine effectiveness, I thought I should probably draw attention to the latest numbers that PHE have come up with, much of which is based on real world data rather than trials, and their level of confidence in each number overall based on things like number of studies available so far.

This is from the weely vaccine surveillance report https://assets.publishing.service.g...193/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_20.pdf

 

[elbows]

Oh and I wonder if this bit from that report contributes to their desire to bring forwards the timing of 2nd doses:

With the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine there is a small reduction in vaccine effectiveness from 10 weeks after the first dose. This may be explained by some waning of protection or by biases due to differences in the earliest groups who were vaccinated compared to later groups. There is no evidence of this waning effect with the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine.

edit - i should have pointed out that the statement is from the 'effectiveness against symptomatic disease' section.

 

[souljacker]

Since I had a brief argument with someone about what numbers it was fair for the modellers to use for vaccine effectiveness, I thought I should probably draw attention to the latest numbers that PHE have come up with, much of which is based on real world data rather than trials, and their level of confidence in each number overall based on things like number of studies available so far.

This is from the weely vaccine surveillance report https://assets.publishing.service.g...193/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_20.pdf

View attachment 269353

Do they not do Moderna or is it too soon?

 

[brogdale]

So the Indian variant has a doubling time of 5 days atm.

 

[elbows]

Do they not do Moderna or is it too soon?

Im presuming not enough time and not enough quantity yet, plus it may be even harder to deduce real-world effects due to the lower Covid risk in the age groups we have selected to be prioritised for that vaccine, potentially adding to the lower confidence in data/how long it takes to get strong data. Whatever the reasons, I dont think its mentioned in that report at all.

 

[elbows]

Nice little jibe there.

I remember you weren't a fan of my support for JCVI lengthening the time between Pfizer jabs either. The baseless and widespread opprobrium that attracted here was one of the reasons I tried to ignore this forum for a while. I should try harder.

I felt the need to revisit this since you said it less than a week ago and since then we have seen the authorities fiddling with the time between first and second doses. Perhaps you have some thoughts on the changes on that front or something I've drawn attention to in my last 2 posts. Perhaps not.

 

[elbows]

So the Indian variant has a doubling time of 5 days atm.

I guess your source that that is this, based on the latest weekly figures released for the variant.



It is indeed a rough calculation. My own sense of these matters is sort of stuck in a holding pattern at the moment, waiting for more analysis next week (Van Tam indicated in the press conference the other day that they expect to be able to have a dirst decent crack at estimating how much more transmissible it is sometime next week).

edit - ah I see that tweet has been deleted, which might give clues about him regretting doing that sort of crude calculation. The guardian still has traces of the original tweet so I can include this screenshot for future reference.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I don't know about the Kent variant taking 2 weeks to double, around here it was basically doubling every week, we went from around 25 to 800 cases in just 5 weeks.

 

[elbows]

I don't know about the Kent variant taking 2 weeks to double, around here it was basically doubling every week, we went from around 25 to 800 cases in just 5 weeks.

Yes and Im not convinced he has done the 5 days calculation properly anyway. I will wait for better analysis, some of which will be based on particular locations and detail rather than the general country-wide cumulative total.

 

[elbows]

A BioNTech spokeswoman said lab tests show that when the blood of vaccinated people is exposed to the Indian variant, 25% to 30% fewer antibodies were binding to the virus than would have been the case with the original coronavirus.

That suggests protection against the variant, whether symptomatic or not, is a bit lower but still 70% to 75%.

BioNTech says vaccine likely to be effective against India variant

BioNTech SE said on Thursday the COVID-19 vaccine it developed with Pfizer (PFE.N) should be roughly as effective against the new coronavirus variant first detected in India as it has been shown to be against the South African variant.

www.reuters.com

I can imagine getting bored of vague talk about how the vaccine is 'still effective' when actually its a question of 'how effective', the percentage of protection on offer, that can make all the difference to what sort of future waves show up in modelling. That story is an example of both the detail I want and the sort of vague positive headline that I dont necessarily find helpful.

 

[elbows]

Oh and even when we get that detail I'd still take it with a pinch of salt, eg how it translates into real world effectiveness, and effectiveness against severe disease could be better or worse than initial lab-based findings indicate.

 

[elbows]

I am now more certain that the link to Bolton hospital figures platinumsage provided some days ago is useless as its data relates to last September.

So we are reliant on the UK dashboard or NHS spreadsheet figures that are only updated once a week, or on authorities releasing data on this separately, or the press obtaining more recent figures.

It appears the latter is providing the goods today:

Number of patients in Bolton hospital with Covid rise again, as Indian variant spreads

Hospital admissions are thought to lag infections by two to three weeks as Indian variant surges across the UK

www.independent.co.uk

The number of patients in hospital with Coronavirus in Bolton has increased to 30, rising by 5 in 24 hours, The Independent has learned.

Bosses at the Bolton NHS Foundation Trust are opening an extra ward for Covid positive patients today, as a previous ward has become full.

Staff at the trust confirmed there were a total of 30 patients being treated in the hospital on Thursday, up from 25 on Wednesday after four new admissions and one patient already in hospital testing positive for Covid-19.

There are seven patients in intensive care or high dependency, with 27 patients on oxygen.

Typically, patients admitted now for Covid-19 were likely to be have been infected 2 to 3 weeks ago, suggesting numbers could rise further.

 

[planetgeli]

Spain to allow travellers from UK and Japan in without Covid tests​

A quick snap from Reuters here that Spain will allow travellers from Britain and Japan into the country without a negative PCR test for Covid-19 from 24 May, according to an order published this morning in the state gazette.
Spain is on the UK’s “amber” list, so UK restrictions still require travellers returning to Britain from Spain to isolate upon arrival. Ministers have said that people should not travel to “amber” list countries for holidays.



What could possibly go wrong?

 

[Teaboy]

Mental. Then again Spain is currently in the amber list so absolutely no one will be going there from the UK apart for emergencies. Real emergencies as well.

 

[strung out]

Mental. Then again Spain is currently in the amber list so absolutely no one will be going there from the UK apart for emergencies. Real emergencies as well.

Emergency week in the sun

 

[Petcha]

Mental. Then again Spain is currently in the amber list so absolutely no one will be going there from the UK apart for emergencies. Real emergencies as well.

Is there anything stopping me from going to Gibraltar? I've been there before and I actually quite liked it - one of the weirdest places I've ever been. Plus you can literally walk across to Spain.

 

[Orang Utan]

Is there anything stopping me from going to Gibraltar? I've been there before and I actually quite liked it - one of the weirdest places I've ever been. Plus you can literally walk across to Spain.

Probably not as it involves common sense

 

[Teaboy]

Is there anything stopping me from going to Gibraltar? I've been there before and I actually quite liked it - one of the weirdest places I've ever been. Plus you can literally walk across to Spain.

I think as long as its not a red zone country all you have to do is print up a letter from your mum (or legal guardian) saying you promise you don't have covid. If its a red zone country just come back a via a different country with the same letter.

 

[Artaxerxes]

what do you reckon, headed for another lockdown around.. September?

No I think we're done, any lethality has been reduced to low levels by the vaccines so we're going to carry on regardless of how many people get sick and how close the NHS is to tipping over treating younger patients.

 

[elbows]

Actually they expect an increasing proportion of hospitalised cases to have been people who were vaccinated, because thats just how the numbers are expected to work out when there are large number of vaccinated people but not 100% protection. Because a small percentage of a very large number is still quite a large number. Quite how large the number will be depends on multiple factors so will just have to wait and see.

 

[Sunray]

Does anyone think blaming the eligable unvaccinated for getting sick going to do much?
The Gov has to find someone to blame other than themselves, it's the law now.

 

[Sunray]

This Q&A is worth a listen