Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[cupid_stunt]

Personally I wish the twat had kept his mouth shut, instead of quoting a totally pointless out of context figure, which no doubt the anti-vaxxers will get all excited about.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Personally I wish the twat had kept his mouth shut, instead of quoting a totally pointless out of context figure, which no doubt the anti-vaxxers will get all excited about.

It does make you wonder whether he understands basic statistics. I didn't see the interview, but presumably he didn't provide an analysis like yours above, which is the correct way to look at it.

Looking him up, he has an MPhil in Economics. You'd have hoped some statistics would have been involved.

 

[elbows]

Yeah same logic is in effect as what I said when posting last night about similar numbers in Glasgow. If this variant doesnt escape vaccines, some vaccinated people would still be expected to get hospitalised or die. Its a question of seeing whether the numbers are higher than expected, with the expected figures being based on how effective they think vaccines are against other existing strains rather than there being some cases at all being a clear indicator.

I hear he also claimed that there is increasing evidence that the vaccine offers protection against the India variant. I cannot judge that for exactly the same reason, need a lot more data and analysis of the details that I dont have.

I am glad he shared those figures though because not revealing them comes with its own harms and suspicions too. Whats unfortunate is that all this is happening before people even got a chance to have it demonstrated to them what vaccines not offering 100% protection against other existing strains means in practice for hospital and death figures. Lessons I have long said I wasnt looking forward to being revealed to the masses, due to many peoples tendency to engage in binary thinking about vaccines and the protection they offer. This also relates to why I was arguing with platinumsage the other day about what vaccine percentage of protection it was reasonable for third wave scenario modellers to use.

As usual it seems that my version of 'taking a break' doesnt mean not posting at all, just hopefully posting less.

 

[Sunray]

We should push back the reopening for a couple of weeks.
So it's best to stay outdoors for a couple of weeks till we are better informed.

 

[bimble]

We should push back the reopening for a couple of weeks.
So it's best to stay outdoors for a couple of weeks till we are better informed.

I honestly think that a very large proportion of people will do just that, make their own minds up instead of rushing out to do whatever BJ says is allowed.
But then i've thought that all along (both ways, significant amounts of people being both more and less cautious than government rules) and tbh mostly I've been surprised by how wrong I seem to be, how many people have taken the rules at any given point as the most important thing and stuck to them doing no more and no less throughout.

 

[Supine]

We should push back the reopening for a couple of weeks.
So it's best to stay outdoors for a couple of weeks till we are better informed.

Luckily no one is forcing us into pubs and restaurants. Personal choice innit.

 

[nagapie]

I honestly think that a very large proportion of people will do just that, make their own minds up instead of rushing out to do whatever BJ says is allowed.
But then i've thought that all along (both ways, significant amounts of people being both more and less cautious than government rules) and tbh mostly I've been surprised by how wrong I seem to be, how many people have taken the rules at any given point as the most important thing and stuck to them doing no more and no less throughout.

The restaurants and live music venues are already totally booked out.

 

[Orang Utan]

I’m going to see loads of films next week. Can’t wait - it’s all masked up and socially distanced so don’t see the issue. One of the films has sold only 3 tickets anyway, so will almost have the vast room to myself.

 

[BillRiver]

Luckily no one is forcing us into pubs and restaurants. Personal choice innit.

Not for everybody, no it isn't.

Think workers being forced back to work (and on to public transport) etc.

And it's not like other people's choices don't effect all of us, either.

 

[maomao]

Luckily no one is forcing us into pubs and restaurants. Personal choice innit.

You're obviously not on furlough from the hospitality industry.

 

[BillRiver]

I’m going to see loads of films next week. Can’t wait - it’s all masked up and socially distanced so don’t see the issue. One of the films has sold only 3 tickets anyway, so will almost have the vast room to myself.

Yeah I'm really looking forward to returning to my fave, Castle cinema, as that feels really safe (especially going on how they did it last Autumn).

I won't be going anyway near any pubs or restaurants though, nor visiting friends indoors, for a long time.

 

[Orang Utan]

I had planned on visiting London to visit friends in June and July but not sure now. Glad I didn’t get round to buying train tickets. Visiting keithy for her birthday in early but it’s gonna be outside in the yard, so should be ok, but it’s only fifteen miles away from Bolton, so will have to keep an eye on the situation

 

[Supine]

You're obviously not on furlough from the hospitality industry.

i know plenty who are and they are all looking forward to doing back.

 

[2hats]

 

[StoneRoad]

I've been thinking about the changes to the restrictions, especially with regard to this Indian variant. I'm anxious about it. I think it is too soon and tomorrow's unlockening should be delayed - or things not loosened quite as much as planned.

I've had both vaccine doses (Oxford) but that second jab was less than two weeks ago and I have fairly decent immune system.
So, personally, I feel fairly well protected or I will be in the near future. Additionally, I live in a low case area - apart from the spike before crimble last year (Kent variant, anecdotally at least, probably propagating via the educational system).

Currently, however, outside my home / garden I'm still masking up when in confined spaces inside, or when potentially meeting people whose vaccinated / covid status is unknown.
The workshop could be a difficult area, we've gone from "individual" areas (literally, separate compartments) back to indoors. It is a large floor area, fairly well ventilated (or it will be when I get that foam off the windows) and the working areas are quite well apart. There are some shared machines and sometimes two or three people need to be in close proximity to complete a task. The anti-vaxxer has left ... and I think everybody else has had at least one jab.

But on the social side of life, I don't feel confident that the risk is worth going into a noisy or crowded venue, especially when alcohol is involved.
I might consider one of the quieter pubs that does food, but not yet awhile.

 

[Sunray]

Here is an interesting graph from the ZOE Covid tracker.
Clear evidence of how a self-selecting data set can bias your stats. Much longer and they will approach 100% vaccinated.

 

[teuchter]

On the other hand it will provide quite a useful means of watching what happens within an almost fully vaccinated subset of the population.

 

[elbows]

ZOE also recently changed their calculations, causing all their main figures to change, to try to compenate for how large a proportion of their users have been vaccinated.

I dont think I can pay too much attention to their estimates at this particular moment, they dont have enough data to estimate R for some areas and in others the possible ranges they have are quite wide.

 

[maomao]

i know plenty who are and they are all looking forward to doing back.

I'm sure most of them are. Not the same as it being a free choice though.

 

[FridgeMagnet]

I mean it was never going to happen that, once they'd announced a date, they would go back on it.

 

[Sunray]

Reading more on the ZOE Covid app data which I have been contributing to over the last year or more, I am reassured by this

COVID cases up but milder infections in vaccinated and in the young

This week the ZOE COVID Study figures reflect an updated methodology, accounting for the large number of vaccinated individuals within the data set.

covid.joinzoe.com

It's a little long but worth a read I think.

 

[William of Walworth]

I agree with some peoples' posts just above --apply caution

From tomorrow, I won't be in any pub until Thursday evening (at the earliest!) anyway

 

[William of Walworth]

Saying that, does anyone know to what extent pubs will continue to insist on table service only and just on distanced tables, etc.?
(I have no issues at all with that, btw )

I haven't been inside any pub at all since Monday 30th November, so fuck knows .

I'll do some on-the-ground 'research' later this coming week, and the one after , but slowly and with caution

 

[BillRiver]

Hmm...

Ignore lockdown easing to curb Indian Covid variant, health experts urge

 

[Steel Icarus]

Can't wait for tomorrow's no masks in the college where Mrs SI and I work & our son studies, and also my daughter's school.
I'm wearing a mask for the foreseeable.

 

[miss direct]

The no mask in schools thing is unbelievable and yet again makes me realise how right I was to quit my school based job.

 

[souljacker]

Saying that, does anyone know to what extent pubs will continue to insist on table service only and just on distanced tables, etc.?
(I have no issues at all with that, btw )

I haven't been inside any pub at all since Monday 30th November, so fuck knows .

I'll do some on-the-ground 'research' later this coming week, and the one after , but slowly and with caution

I'm booked in to my local on Tuesday. Table service only and masks whilst moving about. I don't expect it to be busy though. It's still only a Tuesday night after all.

 

[SpookyFrank]

I mean it was never going to happen that, once they'd announced a date, they would go back on it.

And all hell would break loose if they did. If they were really planning to follow the data there would never have been target dates given months in advance.

They've also said no more tiers or local variations in restrictions which paints them into another corner.

 

[elbows]

Yes there would be an obvious political cost to not doing things on the dates they hoped for, but Johnson did deliberately raise the spectre of that possibly happening with the June relaxation. I expect part of the reason he did this was to increase peoples sense of caution.

Plenty of front pages tomorrow are full of the cautious message, even if they are also being typical shits at the same time eg the Daily Mail one.

 

[editor]

The thing is just about everyone I know - including people like me whose livelihoods have been absolutely destroyed by the Covid restrictions - are all saying they think the notion of being back to normal business after June 21st is crazy. Much as I'd love it to happen, I really, really cannot imagine me DJing to a crowd like his in just over a month.