Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

Spot the problem:

Brag about how we test a high proportion of cases for new variants comapred to other countries that dont have much capacity to do that.

Answer a question about people in other countries like Germany where some Brazil variant cases have been found, that arent on the red list, by going on about what a low proportion of cases in those countries have been shown to be that variant of concern.

 

[elbows]

In my previous reply I forgot to mention R. In the press conferences where the whole reframing of the death implications of cases rising was being discussed, one of the journalists questions asked about R and answers given indicate that yes, R is also part of the change in what they are asking us to think when we hear about data that would previously have been seen as very bad news.

Given their approach its inevitable that they need to encourage such thinking, because I'm sure saw some February SAGE papers where it was stated in a matter of fact way that although they dont know exactly what reopening schools will do, it could easily lead to Rs of 1.5 or 1.6. I will try to find it to quote properly from later, since my vague recollection could turn out to be a misrepresentation.

I still havent looked that up but I'll give Susan Hopkins a bonus point for mentioning in the press conference that they expect R to rise as a result of schools reopening. But as per the other point I've made, she followed that with more language that leaves little doubt that they hope/expect to see hospitalisations not increasing in the way they would previously have seen under those circumstances, ie the expected change in ratio of cases to hospitalisations as a result of the vaccination programme.

 

[elbows]

This is a summary of the PHE good vaccine news that was the focus of much of todays press conference. I havent read it or the pre-print that it links to yet, I think I will save that for another day.

New data show vaccines reduce severe COVID-19 in older adults

New data show both Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines significantly reduce severe COVID-19 in older adults.

www.gov.uk

 

[editor]

Encouraging

Covid vaccines cut risk of serious illness by 80% in over-80s

The UK will soon be in a "very different world", government scientists promise after the success of the jabs.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[2hats]

This is a summary of the PHE good vaccine news that was the focus of much of todays press conference. I havent read it or the pre-print that it links to yet, I think I will save that for another day.

New data show vaccines reduce severe COVID-19 in older adults

New data show both Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines significantly reduce severe COVID-19 in older adults.

www.gov.uk

Wide CIs and plenty of sources of bias (they've also missed out the supplemental information that they refer to).

 

[elbows]

Wide CIs and plenty of sources of bias (they've also missed out the supplemental information that they refer to).

Maybe the BBC are drawing attention to that by using a shifty image of Hancock next to their headline story.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Disturbingly large number of nhs staff seem to be keen on the old anti-vax wagon

Big changes at the V&A, partly blamed on the Rona of course.

V&A to say goodbye to departments by material—woodwork, metalwork etc—and 20% of its curators

Museum's director Tristram Hunt says that government help has not been enough to cover all costs incurred by pandemic and admits “curators will be more stretched”

www.theartnewspaper.com

Back office curators and the inevitable front of house staff losses.

Sounds more and more brutal

 

[William of Walworth]

The National Art Library to be closed for at least another 12 months

Kinnell!!!!

I worked there for marginally under twenty years. We rarely closed!

 

[MJ100]

I would not bet even one shiny pound that if Sunak tried to cash one of his sense of reality cheques in this pandemic, it would bounce. Bounce real high, like the waves of death his priorities create.

You know those priorities are the priorities that his office of state is actually responsible for, right? I for one am glad that at least someone is paying some kind of vague attention to what comes after. Someone has to, or else we truly are screwed. It's not his job to balance the priorities, that's down to Boris. Sunak is paid to talk about the economy. Whether he's saying or doing the right things is a different matter however.

 

[MJ100]

This missing person with the variant from Brasil, I'm a bit confused...

They came into the country and were tested on 12 or 13 Feb, and them only being looked for now is due to the delay in gene sequencing being done I'm assuming? But those dates are 16 days ago, isn't it clearly a case of being too late really?

I think the Swissair flight that Dr. Hopkins mentioned was on January 29th if I recall, so even earlier still for that particular one. Luckily the three people involved with that particular flight seemed to have quarantined properly at least. Given that they said they are able to sequence about one third of all confirmed cases now- was it just luck that they tested those people, or did they find out they had been in Brazil first and thus specifically target them? Anybody know? Might have missed that in the news conference.

 

[existentialist]

You know those priorities are the priorities that his office of state is actually responsible for, right? I for one am glad that at least someone is paying some kind of vague attention to what comes after. Someone has to, or else we truly are screwed. It's not his job to balance the priorities, that's down to Boris. Sunak is paid to talk about the economy. Whether he's saying or doing the right things is a different matter however.

Nice effort, but no cigar.

 

[SpineyNorman]

You know those priorities are the priorities that his office of state is actually responsible for, right? I for one am glad that at least someone is paying some kind of vague attention to what comes after. Someone has to, or else we truly are screwed. It's not his job to balance the priorities, that's down to Boris. Sunak is paid to talk about the economy. Whether he's saying or doing the right things is a different matter however.

Lol

 

[MJ100]

Nice effort, but no cigar.

Eh? So you think the Chancellor of the Exchequer should NOT care about the economy, given that that's his entire job? That's a very interesting, and strange, outlook you have, I must say. Must be nice to live in a world where nobody has to worry about how to pay the bills.

 

[kabbes]

Eh? So you think the Chancellor of the Exchequer should NOT care about the economy, given that that's his entire job? That's a very interesting, and strange, outlook you have, I must say. Must be nice to live in a world where nobody has to worry about how to pay the bills.

Are you seriously saying that ideology is irrelevant to the chancellor of the exchequer? There is just one objective best option?

 

[existentialist]

Eh? So you think the Chancellor of the Exchequer should NOT care about the economy, given that that's his entire job? That's a very interesting, and strange, outlook you have, I must say. Must be nice to live in a world where nobody has to worry about how to pay the bills.

I didn't say that, did I?

 

[Cid]

Whether he's saying or doing the right things is a different matter however.

Hint: UK suffers biggest drop in economic output in 300 years

 

[Spandex]

Eh? So you think the Chancellor of the Exchequer should NOT care about the economy, given that that's his entire job? That's a very interesting, and strange, outlook you have, I must say. Must be nice to live in a world where nobody has to worry about how to pay the bills.

Rishi Sunak isn't just a Chancellor of the Exchequer. He's an investment banking, hedge funding, Thatcherite think tanking, muliti-millionaire, Tory Chancellor of the Exchequer.

 

[StoneRoad]

Rishi Sunak isn't just a Chancellor of the Exchequer. He's an investment banking, hedge funding, Thatcherite think tanking, muliti-millionaire, Tory Chancellor of the Exchequer.

And that's why I'm not really looking forward to the upcoming budget.

 

[2hats]

Given that they said they are able to sequence about one third of all confirmed cases now- was it just luck that they tested those people, or did they find out they had been in Brazil first and thus specifically target them?

Sequencing right now is running at 25% of all (recorded) cases. At the time of the appearance of these particular cases it was just under 20%; the rate is going up because positive test numbers have been dropping. So one wouldn't be surprised if there are another 20+ cases out there (though of course, recorded cases < actual cases).

 

[teuchter]

The Zoe project map (right) continues to not really match the gov.uk one (left) all that convincingly. I know that they aren't representing the same point in time (gov.uk is about a week ago, Zoe is roughly now, but even so).




eg look at East Anglia vs Cornwall, or Argyll vs Glasgow surrounds.

 

[IC3D]

That dark blob on Gt Yarmouth would go infest Norfolk on the govt one. Diff level. Just zoom in moar

 

[StoneRoad]

Areas and density scales being different would also mess up comparisons.

 

[teuchter]

It's true that changing the division size has an effect (although in my first screenshots, they match for Scotland).
Here's the south of england with same division sizes. It's still the case that gov.uk reckons rural devon/cornwall generaly worse than rural E anglia, and zoe reckons the opposite.

 

[existentialist]

Rishi Sunak isn't just a Chancellor of the Exchequer. He's an investment banking, hedge funding, Thatcherite think tanking, muliti-millionaire, Tory Chancellor of the Exchequer.

I think that this is maybe why our new friend is so keen to leap to his defence

 

[Artaxerxes]

Rishi Sunak isn't just a Chancellor of the Exchequer. He's an investment banking, hedge funding, Thatcherite think tanking, muliti-millionaire, Tory Chancellor of the Exchequer.

Yes

 

[StoneRoad]

I've now lost patience with this "missing" case of the Brazilian variant.

There has been enough publicity and still they've not come forward although it is now narrowed down to 1 out of 379 households.

I understand the problem was because the home test kit documentation was incomplete. That and their non-appearance makes me think that they would not have isolated or quarantined voluntarily ...

So, one could assume that they've been spreading 'rona for the past couple of weeks (or more) ...

 

[Teaboy]

I've now lost patience with this "missing" case of the Brazilian variant.

There has been enough publicity and still they've not come forward although it is now narrowed down to 1 out of 379 households.

I understand the problem was because the home test kit documentation was incomplete. That and their non-appearance makes me think that they would not have isolated or quarantined voluntarily ...

So, one could assume that they've been spreading 'rona for the past couple of weeks (or more) ...

I'd brace yourself for many more similar stories in the coming weeks and months.

 

[Cerv]

I've now lost patience with this "missing" case of the Brazilian variant.

There has been enough publicity and still they've not come forward although it is now narrowed down to 1 out of 379 households.

I understand the problem was because the home test kit documentation was incomplete. That and their non-appearance makes me think that they would not have isolated or quarantined voluntarily ...

So, one could assume that they've been spreading 'rona for the past couple of weeks (or more) ...

unless perhaps they've not come forward as currently hospitalised or dead

 

[cupid_stunt]

More great news with today's figures.

Vaccinations - 1st dose just over 20.275m & 2nd dose over 815k.

New cases - 5,455, down -28.7% in the last week, and down almost half by a whopping 5,186 on last Monday's 10,641, bringing the 7-day average down to around 7,979, a figure we haven't seen since last Sept.

New deaths - 104, down -34.7% in the last week, and down 74 on last Monday's 178, bringing the 7-day average down to around 313.

This just keeps getting better, with percentage reductions in both new cases & deaths growing.

Vaccinations - 1st dose just over 20.478 m & 2nd dose over 8445k.

New cases - 6,391, down -29.4% in the last week, and down over 2k on last Tuesday's 8,489, bringing the 7-day average down to around 7,680.

New deaths - 343, down -36% in the last week, and down 205 on last Tuesday's 548, bringing the 7-day average down to around 285.

 

[teuchter]

The percentage reductions in cases aren't really growing, they are visibly levelling off with perhaps a slight downwards tip in the past few days if we are optimistic. The Zoe graph shows a very clear levelling-off. And hospital admissions are also levelling off. The good news is really centred on the death rates.