SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
Hordes of teenagers roaming the city all weekend. I've got enough covid risk at work already thanks 
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
- Start date
cupid_stunt
Where's the bloody sun?
Yeah, if R is above 1 in whole regions that is worrying. If whole regions, cities or counties are seeing increases, that's clearly a problem, as total case numbers as going to be high, but at district or borough council levels, not so much, and far easier for local authorities to get on top of.
I'll try to find a list of those 50 areas & zoom in on them over the next few days, and hopefully they are just blips. Even if they are, or mostly are, just blips, it's still good to highlight them as part of the government messaging in attempting to get people to keep to the rules.
It's reassuring to see cases dropping at around the -20%/per week mark again, yesterday's figure of just over 6,000 new cases, down from just under 10,000 the pervious Sunday, is clearly good news, and I guess is starting to reflect the vaccine roll-out in addition to current restrictions.
Whilst there's still scoop for further hard times ahead, I am staying cautiously optimistic for now, for the benefit of my own mental health.
INumbers of cases and deaths are falling across the UK which is the aim with national lockdown and vaccination.
Have to say that in my area (Hertfordshire) people have really relaxed. Not that there are parties and raves all over the place, just noticed a few things over the weekend.
Loads more cars on the roads
A lot of people visiting houses. These might be bubbles or something else perfectly fine under the rules. I am not compiling data on this
but it is very noticeable.Went to the soopermarket on Saturday and having a smoke outside I watched people going it. Most had masked but virtually nobody sanitised hands going in or out. Back in previous lockdowns most people were. Also the soopermarket had someone on the door but that has stopped now.
Read in the news that some parties and raves have been shut down. Also that some tourist spots/beaches have shut their carparks due to a lot of people 'visiting'. Should not be denying people 'fresh air and nice places' for exercise, but travelling distances for 'exercise' under lockdown is a bit shitty.
Am very positive about the falling rates but I do think there is an element of people who think them and their families 'deserve it', but if we all think like that we will fucked again. This is especially bad with schools reopening in a week.
#GetintheSea
or don't go to the sea
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Doctor Carrot
Marxist Henchman
Hordes of teenagers roaming the city all weekend. I've got enough covid risk at work already thanks
I live in a high student population area and there was fucking loads of 'em dicking about on those voi scooters that have cropped up everywhere. I think they're a great idea but loads of people sharing them without wipe downs in between during a pandemic? Not so much.
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
To be fair several thousand students had been kicked out of their halls over the weekend due to a 1000kg ww2 bomb found next to the campus.
BBC interviewed a few and they mostly seemed to be bored of this whole covid thing and just fancied a holiday.
pogofish
Testicle Hairstyle
For the Aberdeen ones, I'm worried that it could be some of ours - We have a longstanding training contract with the Brazilian government and regular movements of people to and fro.
There are also quite a number of South Americans active in the oil biz just now, although anecdotally, Mexican is the main nationality.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I dont know what sort of voice NHS Providers had before this pandemic, but they seem to be demonstrating an interesting one of late.
Covid-19: Critical care beds shortage prompts calls for review
The UK has 7.3 critical care beds per 100,000 people, compared to Germany's 33.8 and the US's 34.3.
www.bbc.co.uk
elbows
Well-Known Member
When it comes to mental health and pandemic morale, when I go on about case numbers its probably important to remember a new scene that both I and the establishment drew attention to in February. The expectation is that vaccination will change the ratio of cases to hospitalisations and deaths. I brought it up in order to try to put my comments about cases into the current context, because various things are all about numbers games and the equations should have changed a bit already. It seems plausible that the likes of Whitty brought it up because they were already seeing/expected to see some case data going in the wrong direction and they wanted to frame that for the press and public ahead of time. And because the chosen government strategy appears to have quite a bit of tolerance of pretty high viral prevalence rates in it. Its not just a question of not going for 'zero covid'. but quite how far away from that goal the chosen strategy is, and the risks involved. And how they try to frame a risk picture that is changing on several fronts, some good (vaccination), some bad (the flaws in their approach), in their case downplaying the latter whenever possible.
I've forgotten exactly what choice of words Hancock made when he brought this up again at the last press conference. Might have been something like 'death rate has been decoupled from case rate'. Which isnt what I'd say, there is still a link, its just the ratios should alter. Plus even at stages without the vaccination programme it seems like there are tipping points, below which the hospitalisationa nd death picture does not expand horrifically in a particular location, and above which things rapidly spiral out of control. Some of that tipping point might just be about human perception (not noticing or taking things seriously until things reach a certain magnitude) but there are quite possibly real phenomenon at work too, such as hospital<->community infection feedback loops really amplifying things once number of cases crosses a certain threshold.
I'm comparing him to the current idiot. And for that matter the rest of the fucking cabinet. I know it's a low bar. But at least he can string a sentence together about the pandemic without making hilarious gags and throwing in random pretentious words.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Impressive and credible public speaking, with the right substance and tone, is an important quality in this pandemic.
But priorities, understanding how to cope with this virus, learning from past failure are also critical.
Sunak coming across as a smooth operator may tick one of those boxes in your eyes, but everything we've been told about his attitude to the virus fundamentals and the timing and nature of our response tends to place him below Johnson. I would not bet even one shiny pound that if Sunak tried to cash one of his sense of reality cheques in this pandemic, it would bounce. Bounce real high, like the waves of death his priorities create.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
sunak's been built up as something he isn't, and reality will intrude sooner or later
Doctor Carrot
Marxist Henchman
In one city. I'm not in that city.
elbows
Well-Known Member
In theory they could rely on compartmentalisation of roles to shield his reputation from pandemic failures. ie 'he was the chancellor, he was supposed to argue the case from the perspective of the economy' type shit. The flaw in this is the various details about countries that took the right action at the right time ending up with more economic joy in the pandemic, compared t those who resisted doing the right and necessary things for far too long every time.
Pitfalls that may await him include the public inquiry into the pandemic. And the possibility that some of his personal investment portfolio might end up shining a cynical light on his priorities. And on the politics front, what happens with tax in the years to come.
Apart from the usual ways some might be impressed by politicians that can apparently muster the ability to dress themselves in a smart way and have learnt how to talk in a manner that appeals to some, I expect his popularity is also built on those who were happy enough with financial support they received in the pandemic.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
people like him while he's throwing money at them. but as soon as he stops, as soon as the tide recedes and we see the wreckage of the economy, i suspect his dubious charms will no longer seem so alluring
elbows
Well-Known Member
In my previous reply I forgot to mention R. In the press conferences where the whole reframing of the death implications of cases rising was being discussed, one of the journalists questions asked about R and answers given indicate that yes, R is also part of the change in what they are asking us to think when we hear about data that would previously have been seen as very bad news.
Given their approach its inevitable that they need to encourage such thinking, because I'm sure saw some February SAGE papers where it was stated in a matter of fact way that although they dont know exactly what reopening schools will do, it could easily lead to Rs of 1.5 or 1.6. I will try to find it to quote properly from later, since my vague recollection could turn out to be a misrepresentation.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
I can foresee a situation where deaths drop right away and are seen as "decoupled" from case numbers. And combined with vulnerable groups having been vaccinated there will be wide perception that "putting others at risk" is no longer part of the equation. There will be a lot of people who then decide it's just a personal risk thing, and alter their behaviour substantially either because they've already had it or just aren't worried about getting it. And then we'll see prevalence shoot right back up - unless it turns out that the partial vaccination so far carried out can keep any kind of lid on things.
elbows
Well-Known Member
A huge chunk of the mainstream commentary on this pandemic and our governments handling of it has been shit. Certain moments of gogglebox were one of the few exceptions, when they were presented with Johnson talking shit last year.
So here is a recent Jonathan Pie rant which helps me to cope.
So here is a recent Jonathan Pie rant which helps me to cope.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Meanwhile at the border:
Heathrow Airport seven-hour queues 'inhumane', say passengers
Travellers complain of having to queue for up to seven hours because of new Covid measures at border control.
www.bbc.co.uk
maomao
普費斯
You'd think the security guard in that first photo would be telling him to put his mask over his fucking nose rather than just calmly taking his temperature.Meanwhile at the border:
Heathrow Airport seven-hour queues 'inhumane', say passengers
Travellers complain of having to queue for up to seven hours because of new Covid measures at border control.www.bbc.co.uk
I keep telling people 'it's meant to go over your fucking nose' and getting away with it but I'll get punched one of these days.
planetgeli
There's no future in England's dreaming
cupid_stunt
Where's the bloody sun?
Another great days on figures, let's hope it doesn't go tits up when the schools re-open.
Vaccinations - 1st dose just over 20m& 2nd dose almost 800k.
New cases - 6,035, down -21.2% in the last week, bringing the 7-day average down to around 8,703.
New deaths - 144, down -33.5% in the last week, and down 70 on last Sunday's 215, bringing the 7-day average down to around 324.
More great news with today's figures.
Vaccinations - 1st dose just over 20.275m & 2nd dose over 815k.
New cases - 5,455, down -28.7% in the last week, and down almost half by a whopping 5,186 on last Monday's 10,641, bringing the 7-day average down to around 7,979, a figure we haven't seen since last Sept.
New deaths - 104, down -34.7% in the last week, and down 74 on last Monday's 178, bringing the 7-day average down to around 313.
miss direct
misfungled
20 million, wow, that is really great! 1/4 of the population, almost!
Steel Icarus
ersatz maven
It's closer to 1/3, just over 30%
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
This missing person with the variant from Brasil, I'm a bit confused...
They came into the country and were tested on 12 or 13 Feb, and them only being looked for now is due to the delay in gene sequencing being done I'm assuming? But those dates are 16 days ago, isn't it clearly a case of being too late really?
Hearing them talk about this is just deja vu to January 2020 when they were promising not to worry about this new virus we were hearing about.
They came into the country and were tested on 12 or 13 Feb, and them only being looked for now is due to the delay in gene sequencing being done I'm assuming? But those dates are 16 days ago, isn't it clearly a case of being too late really?
Hearing them talk about this is just deja vu to January 2020 when they were promising not to worry about this new virus we were hearing about.
elbows
Well-Known Member
This missing person with the variant from Brasil, I'm a bit confused...
They came into the country and were tested on 12 or 13 Feb, and them only being looked for now is due to the delay in gene sequencing being done I'm assuming? But those dates are 16 days ago, isn't it clearly a case of being too late really?
Hearing them talk about this is just deja vu to January 2020 when they were promising not to worry about this new virus we were hearing about.
This has always been a concern, and the delays in genomic results being available used to be even longer. Nor are we expecting to pick up more than a fraction of the total cases with these variants. The 'missing case' is useful for raising awareness, but even if all detected cases were swiftly identified and dealt with, there would still be a similar dynamic to that which was in play early in the pandemic - these things are surveillance exercises to build a picture, they are not genuine attempts to fully contain the spread of variants. And the standard government line about out world-beating levels of genomic surveillance dont change that.
I am forcing myself to tune in to the press conference today to see how they spin this stuff.
cupid_stunt
Where's the bloody sun?
Under 18s are not to be vaccinated, yet, so the target is about 50 million adults, so about 40% have had their first dose so far.
Here in Worthing, in my patch it's 31%, in wards with a lot of care homes & retirement bungalows it's as high as 48%, just down the road in my mother's 'retirement village' it's over 58%, and those figures were from almost a week ago, so will be higher now, absolutely bloody amazing.
elbows
Well-Known Member
It was even worse when he was finally asked about that (late to setup hotel quarantine system), slippery answers of the predictable kind.
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