Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[redsquirrel]

yeah, this BMJ article is a worthwhile read

Pandemic fatigue? How adherence to covid-19 regulations has been misrepresented and why it matters - The BMJ

As England and Scotland start another period of lockdown, we all have to come to terms with following stricter covid-19 restrictions, most likely for a relatively long period of time. [...]More...

blogs.bmj.com

Stephen Reicher was the bloke on C4 News I was taking about upthread.

 

[Sunray]

Yeah I suggested something like that upthread... Could even link an app/QR code printout. Problem is the Tories would outsource it to Serco and you'd end up with a massive data breach.

This is what I keep coming back to through this. The process of crisis management in this country, and much of the west, is fundamentally and clearly broken. It is profoundly disturbing. We're almost a year in... Arguably already a year in. But fuck all has changed... If anything communication etc has actually got worse.

I agree with Lynn that a short, sharp period is needed. But it will be done badly, and coming out of it will be mismanaged. It's such a shit situation.

I would disagree with the communication, Hackney Council recently gave us a guidelines leaflet.

Didn't get that in any of the other lockdowns.

 

[Doctor Carrot]

Is there a press conference or address scheduled for today?

One at 5 today I think.

 

[Looby]

Matt Hancock is leading.

 

[elbows]

One particular angle on how we got here.

Via SAGE modelling group consensus statements:

September 9th: https://assets.publishing.service.g...SAGE56_200909_SPI-M-O_Consensus_Statement.pdf

The current situation is in line with the latest reasonable worst-case scenario (RWCS), where incidence doubled once in August and once in the first two weeks of September, before re-imposed measures halt this growth. Under this scenario, there is an average incidence of approximately 11,900 infections per day for the second week of September in England. SPI-M-O’s estimated incidence range for England at present is 2,300 to 12,500 new infections per day, in line with estimates from ONS and REACT surveillance studies.

September 23rd: https://assets.publishing.service.g...SAGE59_200923_SPI-M-O_Consensus_Statement.pdf

The epidemic is close to breaching the agreed Reasonable Worst Case Scenario on which NHS, DHSC and HMG contingency plans are based. As outlined by COVID-S, planning has followed a strategy under which action is taken in mid-September to halt epidemic growth. Unless the measures announced on 22nd September reduce R back below 1, it is likely that infection incidence and hospital admissions will exceed the planning levels.

Long-term management of the epidemic will be a balancing act between direct and indirect effects on health caused by COVID-19 and the economic and health disbenefits caused by intervention measures. There is great potential to use of data and modelling to inform the choice of policy measures that would meet the Government’s long-term strategic objectives. Such calculations would be complicated by uncertainty around if or when a highly effective vaccine or treatment will become available, but those difficulties are not insurmountable. SPI-M-O welcomes the clarity brought by stating the top strategic objectives are to protect the NHS and keep schools open. Further detail on specific objectives would allow advice to be issued on how policy objectives could be expected to achieve them.

October 21st: https://assets.publishing.service.g.../950631/S0821_SPI-M-O_Consensus_Statement.pdf

The number of infections, hospital admissions and deaths are exceeding those in the reasonable worst case planning scenario that is based on COVID-S’s winter planning strategy. This scenario assumed that decisive action would be taken in mid- September to halt an increase in transmission.

So the government totally failed to stick to the response the reasonable worst case planning for winter used. The modellers modelled various things at these stages, including various versions of a circuit breaker, and then once that opportunity was completely missed, measures in early November that continued for 6 weeks. And then finally measures in November for 4 weeks. The output of such modelling also enables me to see the curves they came up with both with and without such measures, and with a different range of R values. I will present these later.

 

[killer b]

Stephen Reicher was the bloke on C4 News I was taking about upthread.

he's been a regular source of good sense throughout the pandemic tbh.

 

[Cid]

There's other sources for November further down the article showing high compliance with that lockdown. I don't think they're arguing that the measures are sufficient (and I'm certainly not), only that there is wide compliance with what measures there are (self isolation excepted, for reasons gone into ad infinitum) and blaming non-compliance for continuing spread of infections is a mistake.

Thing is, if I asked anyone I know whether they were complying with measures most of the time, they'd say yes. But I also can't actually think of anyone I know who does... also if you have a look at the UCL study linked, complete compliance is significantly lower than majority compliance (around 50% in November). Majority compliance is 5-7 on a 7 point scale, complete is 7.

Still, I've read that article before and basically agree with everything it has to say.

 

[Cid]

I would disagree with the communication, Hackney Council recently gave us a guidelines leaflet.

Didn't get that in any of the other lockdowns.

That's not good communication. It's baseline communication from one council.

Nothing from my local council, central Sheffield.

 

[Jay Park]

What's really sad and terrible is we've got to this position when we're all a bit fraught for a variety of reasons (myself included), and we're jumping around being angry and upset with each other, which while understandable, isn't really very helpful and lets plenty of more culpable people off the hook.

and when in recent history hasn't that happened? Only it's exacerbated by certain, or current, circumstances

 

[Jay Park]

'Culpable people'

you mean Britain's ruling elite of 1000 years?

 

[Sue]

I would disagree with the communication, Hackney Council recently gave us a guidelines leaflet.

Didn't get that in any of the other lockdowns.

But then I live in Hackney too and have had nothing from the council at all. (The rolling rate in my ward is currently 1145 so it's not like it's because my ward has low numbers or whatever )

 

[elbows]

Follow-up to my previous post about failure to stick to the plan in autumn.

September modelling focussing on half-term circuit breakers, where the dashed lines are the no circuit breaker scenario and the others use various different growth rate values in the scenario of a circuit breaker: https://assets.publishing.service.g...tial__lockdown_for_2_weeks_over_Half-Term.pdf



Other scenarios were modelled, including two circuit breakers, which I've stuck inside spoiler tags.

Spoiler

October modelling. I'm only showing the England graphs because otherwise my post will be way too long (well it already is too long but never mind).

From https://assets.publishing.service.g.../950631/S0821_SPI-M-O_Consensus_Statement.pdf

Medium term projections and R=0.6 scenario [.....] Orange shows the trajectory based on current trends and does not include the effect of future policy changes or past ones that have not yet been reflected in data. Blue shows a scenario in which a very stringent intervention is introduced on 26th October and maintained for the duration of the scenario. Both trajectories show interquartile ranges of model combinations. The dashed line reflects the current reasonable worst case scenario.

Late October evolution of the above modelling: https://assets.publishing.service.g...SAGE64_201028_SPI-M-O_Consensus_Statement.pdf





Early November version, where length of measures is 4 weeks instead of 6, and where a number of different R values are modelled.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/935132/spi-m-o-consensus-statement-covid-19-sage-66-051120-s0864.pdf

 

[elbows]

Anyway I stuck that stuff in this main thread to draw attention to it, but I've also put it in the nerdy thread so if people want to discuss details of it, thats probably the better place. #44

I drew attention to it now because it demonstrates what could have happened if the government had acted quickly and strongly last year. Obviously the resurgence down south and new variant issues were not on the radar when this modelling was done, but it still provides interesting indicators of what sort of size and duration of peak was expected under a number of different growth rate scenarios, if no measures were taken.

 

[2hats]

I drew attention to it now because it demonstrates what could have happened if the government had acted quickly and strongly last year. Obviously the resurgence down south and new variant issues were not on the radar when this modelling was done

The new variant issues may never have materialised (well, have been an occasional import only issue) if they had acted quickly, strongly from the start (wouldn't even have been an import issue if everyone had acted quickly, strongly from the start).

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

Matt Hancock is leading.

1st of the Daily Hoorray we have a world beating vaccination program on the go briefings.

 

[miss direct]

Anyone over 70 getting the vaccine yet? Or is it still over 80s?

 

[Pingety Pong]

Anyone over 70 getting the vaccine yet? Or is it still over 80s?

My MiL is getting hers this week and she only just turned 70. She has high blood pressure though as well.

 

[killer b]

I think it probably varies wildly by area tbh - my 94 year old gran hasn't had her jab yet (we're in Lancashire) - I think they're still on the care homes here...

 

[og ogilby]

I think it probably varies wildly by area tbh - my 94 year old gran hasn't had her jab yet (we're in Lancashire) - I think they're still on the care homes here...

My 83 yo mum had hers last Thursday and my 72 yo auntie with no health issues had hers done on Saturday in Leyland.

 

[killer b]

My 83 yo mum had hers last Thursday and my 72 yo auntie with no health issues had hers done on Saturday in Leyland.

motherfuckers, what about my gran??

 

[og ogilby]

My MiL is getting hers this week and she only just turned 70. She has high blood pressure though as well.

Not sure the high blood pressure would put her up the list.

 

[og ogilby]

motherfuckers, what about my gran??

Yeah, that isn't good. I'm surprised they haven't done every 90+ person already.

 

[Hyperdark]

Anyone else think the 2 girls going for a walk story was a set up?

 

[Hyperdark]

motherfuckers, what about my gran??

Is your gran in Wales by any chance?, I know 11 people over 70 , 3 over 80 and 1 who is 102....none of them has even had a fucking letter yet

 

[killer b]

Anyone else think the 2 girls going for a walk story was a set up?

you're on the wrong thread - this is the one you're looking for Coronavirus Conspiracy Corner

 

[Roadkill]

My MiL is getting hers this week and she only just turned 70. She has high blood pressure though as well.

I think killer b is right and it varies a lot from place to place. My mum is in her 70s with high blood pressure and hasn't heard a thing yet.

 

[two sheds]

Neighbour (over 80) just had his in Cornwall. I had thought we're fairly slow rolling out down here.

 

[Cid]

Anyone else think the 2 girls going for a walk story was a set up?

 

[Boudicca]

My 80+ parents on the Essex coast haven't heard anything yet either.

 

[killer b]

A majority of the country - but especially Tory voters - agree it's your next door neighbour's fault btw