Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[Cid]

Christmas lockdown breaking neighbour below me is coughing their guts out. NOT a relaxing sound for me. Wondering about virus through floorboards or fireplace creep. But that's just paranoia, right?

It would worry me... Though I think fireplaces generally don't have airflow between them (think of the smoke). Floor shouldn't be a problem - many layers. Might be worth getting some decent masks if you have any shared spaces you need to move through.

 

[nagapie]

zora , you will not catch covid from a neighbour unless you share communal living spaces. Please don't worry.

 

[prunus]

Christmas lockdown breaking neighbour below me is coughing their guts out. NOT a relaxing sound for me. Wondering about virus through floorboards or fireplace creep. But that's just paranoia, right?

No that won’t happen - even though your floorboards may have gaps in, their ceiling will be plasterboarded and plastered, and painted - completely sealed. Fireplace flues are not connected otherwise gasses etc would come through.

 

[zora]

Thanks all, I have tried to reassure myself on and off over the last few days with similar thoughts, it's just that the sound of the cough sends such a chill through my bones!
Feels good to have it confirmed by people who know (especially about the fireplace).

 

[cupid_stunt]

That makes no sense.

I've no idea why you think it doesn't make sense, when I comparing the average daily reported deaths from the peak in the first wave to the current situation.


These are the most up to date figures available, and the ones most people focus on, as they are the ones wildly reported in the media.

Sure they are not the actual date of death, but as we know from the excellent charts that elbows produces, it can take weeks for deaths reported today, to be allocated to the actual date of death. Even the ONS figures on date of deaths where covid is mentioned on the death certificate, which they publish with a 2 week lag, are marked as only 'provisional' at the time they are published.

The daily reported new deaths follow a very similar wave pattern as the graph showing the actual date of death, a comparison of the two* are on the government's dashboard. *Both being deaths within 28 days of being tested, whereas, as we know there were a sizeable number of extra covid deaths, where it's mentioned on death certificates, in the first wave that were only picked-up by the ONS figures, because of the lack of testing at the time.

In view of the record numbers in hospital, and despite better treatments, it is sadly clear the average daily reported deaths will be overtaking those in the first wave in the next few days. And, as we have not seen the massive recent increase in people testing positive, up almost 50% since the end of December, reflected in deaths yet, the number is likely to continue to increase, and even overtake the higher first wave total deaths reported in the ONS data, i.e. all cases where covid is mentioned on the death certificate, in the coming weeks.

Other factors also come into play, which are going to make the coming weeks grim, including us going into a milder lockdown later than in the first wave, hospitals being overwhelmed, massive numbers of doctors, nurses and carers being of off sick and/or isolating, and the increasing infection rate in care homes.

 

[TopCat]

Christmas lockdown breaking neighbour below me is coughing their guts out. NOT a relaxing sound for me. Wondering about virus through floorboards or fireplace creep. But that's just paranoia, right?

Dettol made their name and fortune around similar fears.

 

[cupid_stunt]

There is now over 46,000 hospital staff off sick with covid, and GP surgeries are also being hit hard too, the combination will not only mean the NHS will struggle with patient care, but it's likely to impact on the vaccination roll-out plans too.

In a letter to its members, the chair of the British Medical Association, Chaand Nagpaul, revealed the huge number of staff struck down with the virus. “There are over 46,000 hospital staff off sick with Covid-19,” he wrote, “heaping additional pressure on an already overstretched workforce struggling to manage even current critical care demand.”

Stressing the need for doctors and other health workers to be vaccinated as soon as possible, Dr Nagpaul added: “It is only if the NHS workforce is kept fit and well that we will be able to meet the unprecedented surge in demand that the coming weeks and months will bring as well as delivering the vaccine programme that remains our only hope to end this dreadful pandemic.”

Across the country hospitals, GP surgeries and care homes are reporting abnormally high staff absence levels. In Kent, one of the hardest hit areas of south-east England, about 25% of clinical and administrative staff are believed to be absent. John Allingham, medical director of the local medical committee, which represents GPs in the county, said in some practices as many as half of staff were absent, which was having an impact on vaccinations.

Martin Marshall, chairman of the Royal College of General Practitioners, said even if all staff were in work there were not enough people to hit the target of two million jabs a week. “There are enough right now to deliver the limited supplies that we’ve got,” he said. “But we certainly haven’t got enough staff to deliver a much larger programme in two or three weeks’ time, while at the same time as continuing to deliver the flu vaccination programme and delivering normal business in general practice as well.”

Doctors raise alarm as Covid strikes down NHS workforce

Health service in crisis with 46,000 ill, warns BMA chief as calls grow for tough new lockdown steps

www.theguardian.com

 

[brogdale]

There is now over 46,000 hospital staff off sick with covid, and GP surgeries are also being hit hard too, the combination will not only mean the NHS will struggle with patient care, but it's likely to impact on the vaccination roll-out plans too.

Doctors raise alarm as Covid strikes down NHS workforce

Health service in crisis with 46,000 ill, warns BMA chief as calls grow for tough new lockdown steps

www.theguardian.com

Making the decision not to put NHS staff @ No. 1 in the vaccine 'hierarchy' look as shit as every other governmental 'decision' regarding Covid.

 

[existentialist]

Making the decision not to put NHS staff @ No. 1 in the vaccine 'hierarchy' look as shit as every other governmental 'decision' regarding Covid.

You'd have thought it would be obvious that vaccinating healthcare staff would be a force multiplier

 

[brogdale]

You'd have thought it would be obvious that vaccinating healthcare staff would be a force multiplier

You'd have thought...

 

[TopCat]

Making the decision not to put NHS staff @ No. 1 in the vaccine 'hierarchy' look as shit as every other governmental 'decision' regarding Covid.

My NHS nurse partner has had gazillion of weird pings on her phone. I asked and each ping is another shift that needs covering. Fucking thing is like a bad 80's video game.

 

[cupid_stunt]

It's a tough choice, with infections raising in care homes, and amongst staff too.

Care providers in the UK are reporting staff absence rates of up to 50 per cent, amid concern of “mounting pressure” across the social care sector as the third coronavirus wave continues to intensify.

The National Care Forum (NCF), which represents more than 130 organisations, called on the government to take “heed of this early warning signal” and provide additional resources for care services that have become increasingly stretched over winter.

In a survey conducted last week, the NCF found that some providers were missing between 11 and 50 per cent of their workforce. Absences were driven by a combination of Covid-19 infections, instructions to self-isolate, shielding and childcare responsibilities.

The NCF’s findings come as new data from Public Health England showed that coronavirus outbreaks more than doubled in a fortnight over the new year period.

There were 503 reports of outbreaks in English care homes in the week up to 3 January – up from 236 two weeks prior, an increase of more than 113 per cent.
---
Despite the growing prevalence of Covid-19 in the social care sector, which was devastated during the first peak of the pandemic, only one in 10 care home residents and 14 per cent of staff have been vaccinated so far, according to the latest figures.

Care sector hit by staff absence rates up to 50% as third Covid wave intensifies

‘If people cannot be supported to leave hospital, whether that is by moving into a care home or having care at home, then the whole system will fail,’ warns National Care Forum

www.independent.co.uk

 

[TopCat]

It's a tough choice, with infections raising in care homes, and amongst staff too.

Care sector hit by staff absence rates up to 50% as third Covid wave intensifies

‘If people cannot be supported to leave hospital, whether that is by moving into a care home or having care at home, then the whole system will fail,’ warns National Care Forum

www.independent.co.uk

Restrictions on agency staff use are both safeguarding the residents and leaving them without sufficient care.

 

[brogdale]

Utter shitshow.

 

[Supine]

Sunday feel good post

 

[Lord Camomile]

My friend's got her first vaccination tomorrow

 

[Lord Camomile]

It's somewhat hard to google, but there has to be a drink called a Vaccine Shot, right? Served up in one of those fake syringes? Was trying to think of ways my friend could celebrate tomorrow.

 

[Chairman Meow]

My cousin got her first shot yesterday. She is just getting over covid, but she works in healthcare, so she is very happy to get jabbed! On the downside, she told me one of our uncles has said he won't get the vaccine as he doesn't want Bill Gates microchip tracking him. He always was a fuckwit, but my cousin was not impressed at all.

 

[teuchter]

I've no idea why you think it doesn't make sense, when I comparing the average daily reported deaths from the peak in the first wave to the current situation.

View attachment 248103
These are the most up to date figures available, and the ones most people focus on, as they are the ones wildly reported in the media.

But they aren't the most up to date figures available! It's exactly the same data used to produce the date-of-death figures, but with the numbers shifted around to dates that are a less accurate measure of what's actually happening.

The fact is that we don't know how many people have died in the past few days. Producing these rolling average numbers doesn't magically create more information.

The fact that it's what's widely used in the press isn't an argument for it being the best measure. The press like using the 'deaths reported today' number because it's often large and good for headlines and appears to be up-to-date information.

In this past week in particular we know that the deaths reported are going to be heavily influenced by the catch-up on Christmas and New year reporting.

 

[Maltin]

The press like using the 'deaths reported today' number because it's often large and good for headlines and appears to be up-to-date information.

In this past week in particular we know that the deaths reported are going to be heavily influenced by the catch-up on Christmas and New year reporting.

I don’t think this first part is fair. The press report it because it’s the most immediate data available that they are provided with and it’s a good indicator. As far as I’m aware, the daily figure is reported every day, regardless of size.

As has been said before, yes, if you were interested in knowing how many people died on a certain day or had a morbid fascination in which day had the most deaths, the figure reported every day is not the one to use. So although it does not help with the accuracy of that data, what we do know is that there are a lot of deaths occurring currently and although there is a lag, all the current numbers (not just deaths) suggest that the number of deaths are likely at or near to the numbers seen during the peak of the first wave. In 3 months time you can come back and tell us whether the final figures bore this out or not.

 

[killer b]

I see what the next tightening of restrictions will look like is starting to take shape:

 

[kalidarkone]

My cousin got her first shot yesterday. She is just getting over covid, but she works in healthcare, so she is very happy to get jabbed! On the downside, she told me one of our uncles has said he won't get the vaccine as he doesn't want Bill Gates microchip tracking him. He always was a fuckwit, but my cousin was not impressed at all.

There is a band 6 nurse at work who not only won't have the vaccine but refuses to carry out 2x weekly lateral flow testing......but is perfectly happy to go to a non essential shop that remains open......a shop I have avoided on purpose because it is impossible to socially distance in there.

He should at least be doing the lateral flow testing....it should be a requirement in order to be employed by the trust imo.

 

[agricola]

There is a band 6 nurse at work who not only won't have the vaccine but refuses to carry out 2x weekly lateral flow testing......but is perfectly happy to go to a non essential shop that remains open......a shop I have avoided on purpose because it is impossible to socially distance in there.

He should at least be doing the lateral flow testing....it should be a requirement in order to be employed by the trust imo.

Absolutely - do they have any role treating patients?

 

[Chilli.s]

The Queen and Phil the Greek have received their covid jabs.

So, their movements are now being tracked over the 5G network, to ensure they don't break the covid restrictions.

Luckily their support bubble includes loads of paid servants. Essential work.

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

I see what the next tightening of restrictions will look like is starting to take shape:

Ending supoort bubbles? That’ll go down well...

 

[teuchter]

I don’t think this first part is fair. The press report it because it’s the most immediate data available that they are provided with and it’s a good indicator. As far as I’m aware, the daily figure is reported every day, regardless of size.

As has been said before, yes, if you were interested in knowing how many people died on a certain day or had a morbid fascination in which day had the most deaths, the figure reported every day is not the one to use. So although it does not help with the accuracy of that data, what we do know is that there are a lot of deaths occurring currently and although there is a lag, all the current numbers (not just deaths) suggest that the number of deaths are likely at or near to the numbers seen during the peak of the first wave. In 3 months time you can come back and tell us whether the final figures bore this out or not.

Each day we are supplied with some new information: a bunch of numbers of deaths each attributed to the day they occurred. In terms of presenting that information to people, there is a choice - you can present the full information available, or you can deliberately throw away part of that information (the days on which the deaths occurred). Why would you choose to do the latter, if your aim was to convey as much information as possible about the current situation? Because each time someone simply passes on "number of deaths reported today" they are choosing to throw away that information.

That information is useful in trying to get an idea of one of the most important things in terms of deciding how to respond to the situation - the direction of travel - at what rate are cases increasing or decreasing. If you only have a "morbid fascination" for large numbers of deaths, or a number of deaths with no interest in what the direction of travel is, then you can use the daily reported, or averaged daily reported numbers.

The information is actually fairly well presented on the gov.uk site - not quite as good as elbows' multicoloured versions, but it indicates (in blue) the date up to which data is probably near-enough complete, and (in grey) the dates for which it's incomplete, AKA we don't yet know.


This graph is easily screenshotted, or linked to. It's the best information we have, as far as deaths are concerned.

What is the reason to choose a method of presenting this data in a way that actually removes information from it, and furthermore, presents the information in a way that is liable to lead people who don't fully understand what it represents, to come to false conclusions? If you're reading this and wondering if I'm keen to present information that makes things look less bad rather than more bad - no, I'm not, I'm keen to present information in the most accurate and honest way possible. There will also be moments when people can use the "deaths by date reported" approach to present graphs or comparisons that make it appear that rates are falling when they actually aren't.

 

[kalidarkone]

Absolutely - do they have any role treating patients?

Yep.
But there are loads of fuckwits at work....it reflects the general population which reflects the cabinet....so yes there is definitely a proportion of clinical staff that are not taking responsibility or thinking long term.

 

[teuchter]

Here's the deaths by date of reporting (first), and by date of death (second).





The first graph very much gives the impression that we are into a very rapidly rising trajectory. We might well be, but based only on looking at deaths data, on the second graph I have marked plausible best and worst case scenarios. It's a much more accurate picture of what we do and don't know.

Of course we can make guesses about which of those trajectories is more likely, using all sorts of other stuff like test positivity and hospital admissions. But that should be made on the basis of bringing that context into the picture, rather than pretending that the "daily reported deaths" numbers tell us something which they don't.

 

[killer b]

Ending supoort bubbles? That’ll go down well...

I'd support closing building sites first, but if support bubbles have been identified as a significant source of infections then they can go too if necessary

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

I'd support closing building sites first, but if support bubbles have been identified as a significant source of infections then they can go too if necessary

Absolutely, but the impact on various isolated people would be huge