magneze
🎧
He should resign too.
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
- Start date
elbows
Well-Known Member
We had some reasonable worst case winter planning scenarios and in many ways the possible impact of the new variant is similar to what worst-case winter scenarios could have envisaged. This sort of planning inevitably involves assumptions and a narrow selection of scenarios to model and think about. But they usually have a worst-case one in there to at least occasionally focus minds on planning for situations where capacity stands no chance of keeping up with demand.
Aside from the narrowness of such plans, they also tend to illicit an immature and unhelpful response from sections of the political classes and from sections of the media. It was only a few months ago where the anti-lockdown shithead side of the press were having a field day by picking apart Vallance slides of modelling that showed certain numbers of cases and deaths at various looming stages of the second wave. I forget the exact timing but probably stuff being said in September about how bad things could be by October. Every opportunity was taken to shoot the messengers on that occasion, followed by months of torturous political theatre. And the delays inevitably just means those shitheads, like everyone else, end up having to live with stronger measures for longer. Its a disgusting fiasco that stems from crap patterns of power, decision making, shit values, shit attitudes, and many otherwise competent people who are resigned to their fate as a relatively powerless small cog in a dysfunctional machine. A machines thats also been sold off to varying degrees. All aboard the gravy train.
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elbows
Well-Known Member
I think the pre-Christmas u-turn, combined with these subsequent aspects like the amazingly shit school closure announcement timing, mean that the pressure release valve is quite far open right now when it comes to the media mirroring peoples sense of frustration and disgruntlement. The BBC is not exempt from this at the moment, though I dont know how long it will last. Its still a fairly safe and controlled form of pressure release at this stage. But keep an eye out for future mutations, or the gradual closing of the valve.
2hats
Dust.
Quite. Anecdotally am seeing (what are most likely) reinfections of friends ~10 months on (who were infected at the start of this pandemic).
We won't know it is N months until N months after the first extensive trials.
Sunray
Its sunny somewhere.
There has been a proper study showing front line health care workers in the north of England who were infected early on have had 0 (zero) reinfection and 0 asymptomatic infection. There is mounting evidence immunity is long lived as these people were and still are treating COVID patients.
FYI :
2hats
Dust.
And how long has that study run for thus far..?
elbows
Well-Known Member
I wasnt happy with the cop-out first part of my previous answer to this post of several days ago:
I'm mentioning it again now because during todays press conference, I feel Whitty ended up coving some aspects of this point, and it reminded me what a bad job I'd done of it. I dont really want to paraphrase him now as I am tired, but at one stage he explained how the increase in cases will turn into hospitalisations and then eventually deaths, and how we can therefore expect that figure to rise. And in response to a question he did start to go on about how the vaccination priority order will first start to impact deaths, and then later there will be a reduction in the pressure hospitals are under, emphasising that it takes time to get these end results out of the vaccination process. He also endorsed the governments vaccination timetable ambitions, albeit with the usual caveats.
So really I dont want to make it sound like I think vaccination will make no difference to the picture. It should be just a question of time, and much of my hesitancy is because I tend to focus on the near term and that picture looks set to get worse before it gets better. But when it comes to the results of vaccination, even if we fall far short of various targets, in some sense my feelings are of the same sort I had early on. Early in the pandemic I emphasised the difference individuals behaviour will make to individual infections, that we'll never know exactly which of our sensible actions (and inactions, stay at home etc) prevented which deaths, but that we'll be cutting off all sorts of transmission that would otherwise have happened when we do the right thing at the right time in this pandemic, even when the big picture looks bleak and full of death and we may wonder 'whats the point?'. So as well as looking at the big picture regarding vaccinations, I have to remember to think of every individual that is gaining some protection.
Unless I dreamt it, the subject of what levels of death from a disease a society may eventually decide is an acceptable burden also got covered by Whitty today. That was another subject that came up in conversation here in recent days, as was the old 'probable future of this virus as an ongoing winter issue with some things in common with how we cope with flu' type stuff which also came out of his mouth at one point.
I see the 'stay home, protect the NHS, save lives' podium graphic was back today. They didnt bother with that during the November national measures, which is somewhat fitting as those measures fell further short of actual lockdown compared to the latest measures and the first wave lockdown. But now the situation is serious enough that it is back, goodbye for now to hands face space. I went back and checked when 'stay home...' was replaced with the first weakened one that everyone took the piss out of, 'stay alert, control the virus, save lives'. It was earlier than I thought, 11th May!
Sunray
Its sunny somewhere.
QUOTE="2hats, post: 16899170, member: 23546"]
And how long has that study run for thus far..?
[/QUOTE]
277 days.
nobody who survived Covid-SARS-1 got it twice. That’s 17 years now.
The question to ask is why do we catch something twice? The body has a fantastically complex defence mechanism. If it’s something the body has seen before it can respond to it immediately and you don’t get sick.
If you catch it and get over it, this is often life long immunity, the pathogen has to mutate like the flu to evafe the body’s defences. Vaccines on the other hand may well fade over time. (How advances in immunology provide insight into improving vaccine efficacy)
This what is being seen in this study. We can hope the vaccine offers decent amount of time before it wears off.
And how long has that study run for thus far..?
[/QUOTE]
277 days.
nobody who survived Covid-SARS-1 got it twice. That’s 17 years now.
The question to ask is why do we catch something twice? The body has a fantastically complex defence mechanism. If it’s something the body has seen before it can respond to it immediately and you don’t get sick.
If you catch it and get over it, this is often life long immunity, the pathogen has to mutate like the flu to evafe the body’s defences. Vaccines on the other hand may well fade over time. (How advances in immunology provide insight into improving vaccine efficacy)
This what is being seen in this study. We can hope the vaccine offers decent amount of time before it wears off.
2hats
Dust.
Incorrect.
We are talking about SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19.
The healthcare worker studies (DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2034545, DOI: 10.1016/j.jinf.2020.12.023) have run for 6 months thus far. So the current upper bound is, not unsurprisingly, 6 months.
keybored
Well done. You remember cat good.
He slipped one out this evening though, the useless fuck.
Ms Ordinary
randompointlesschemistry
Nothing new here, but at least is being reported & hopefully has been learnt from. (was leaked almost a week beforehand)
Leak of November lockdown plan linked to 'surge in new infections'
Mostly in tier 1 & tier 2 areas, where more socialising was possible, mainly age group 20-29, but all age groups up to 60.
Leak of November lockdown plan linked to 'surge in new infections'
Mostly in tier 1 & tier 2 areas, where more socialising was possible, mainly age group 20-29, but all age groups up to 60.
Ms Ordinary
randompointlesschemistry
Reminded me of this guy on why timing is everything - 'its more important to be fast than to be absolutely right' is roughly what he says
Lord Camomile
Yipchaa!
"You need to be coordinated. You need to be coherent"
Weeeeeeell, fuck.
Weeeeeeell, fuck.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
I had a zoom meeting earlier, there was only 12 of us instead of the more normal 20+, out of those 12 -
1 - one tested positive for covid over Xmas, a fairly bad experience, but not requiring hospital admission. Family all isolated, no one else in the house appears to have got it.
2 - another had to isolate with the family, because the son tested positive, mild case, no one else in the house appears to have got it.
3 - another reported both her parents tested positive a couple of days ago, father has a mild case, mother is more worrying.
All these four cases are in Worthing, during the whole of the last lockdown, I was the only one that knew anyone that had it, that was my niece & her husband, but they are not local, they live up in Kent.
On cases within 7 days/per 100k, in under 5 weeks we have gone from under 25 to over 680, scary stuff.
1 - one tested positive for covid over Xmas, a fairly bad experience, but not requiring hospital admission. Family all isolated, no one else in the house appears to have got it.
2 - another had to isolate with the family, because the son tested positive, mild case, no one else in the house appears to have got it.
3 - another reported both her parents tested positive a couple of days ago, father has a mild case, mother is more worrying.
All these four cases are in Worthing, during the whole of the last lockdown, I was the only one that knew anyone that had it, that was my niece & her husband, but they are not local, they live up in Kent.
On cases within 7 days/per 100k, in under 5 weeks we have gone from under 25 to over 680, scary stuff.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Surprisingly good article in the Telegraph on essential workers .Wonderful opportunity for the Labour Party and TUC to highlight and campaign around this group of workers so vital to lockdowns which obviously will be missed or ignored.
Its behind a paywall but heres a couple of paras cut and pasted.
Its behind a paywall but heres a couple of paras cut and pasted.
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Boudicca
Seaside Queen
Bournemouth is now purple on the map for the first time, 502 today.I had a zoom meeting earlier, there was only 12 of us instead of the more normal 20+, out of those 12 -
1 - one tested positive for covid over Xmas, a fairly bad experience, but not requiring hospital admission. Family all isolated, no one else in the house appears to have got it.
2 - another had to isolate with the family, because the son tested positive, mild case, no one else in the house appears to have got it.
3 - another reported both her parents tested positive a couple of days ago, father has a mild case, mother is more worrying.
All these four cases are in Worthing, during the whole of the last lockdown, I was the only one that knew anyone that had it, that was my niece & her husband, but they are not local, they live up in Kent.
On cases within 7 days/per 100k, in under 5 weeks we have gone from under 25 to over 680, scary stuff.
Lurdan
old wave
Archived version of the article here.
The flaw with lockdown – Britain's 10 million key workers still have to get around
The ONS data on key workers (from last spring) is here.
Key workers: population and characteristics, 2019 - Office for National Statistics
(Not entirely sure what the point would be of waiting for either the middle-class Labour Party or the TUC to highlight these issues or campaign around them).
planetgeli
There's no future in England's dreaming
From the Guardian live blog
More than a third of hospital beds across Wales are occupied by Covid patients, the Welsh NHS chief executive, Andrew Goodall, has said.
Goodall said six hospitals in Wales were at level 4 - the highest level of emergency - and 10 were at level 3. He said:
More than a third of hospital beds across Wales are occupied by Covid patients, the Welsh NHS chief executive, Andrew Goodall, has said.
Goodall said six hospitals in Wales were at level 4 - the highest level of emergency - and 10 were at level 3. He said:
Goodall said there were almost 2,800 Covid-related patients in Welsh hospitals. This is 4% higher than the same point last week and it represents the highest number on record. He went on:
elbows
Well-Known Member
So overall (not 28 days of test) covid deaths now past 92000
I also believe it is plausible that over 600,000 people died from all causes in 2020 in England and Wales. Only other time it exceeded 600,000 (in records going back to 1838) was 1918, although it came very close in 1976.
However it is premature for me to say this and we will probably have to wait some time to have the yearly figure confirmed. And obviously the size and age of the population has changed a lot over that period. But even so.
elbows
Well-Known Member
The return of clap for carers (this time clap for heroes) leaves me with very mixed feelings because in addition to the reasons to have mixed feelings about it last time, this time I am also sickened by the way the pandemic is treated so differently when it affects regions in the south. Was there nobody worth clapping for when the North was suffering a huge amount of death and hospital strain months ago?
Lockdown: Clap for Carers to return as Clap for Heroes
Founder Annemarie Plas says the initiative will return on Thursday under the new name of Clap for Heroes.
www.bbc.co.uk
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Can with have a 'Boos for Boris' night?
Ah, so we’re back to the ever-useful “hero” narrative. As per the way it manifested last time, this provides a useful way to avoid feelings of guilt for not providing real-world material support, because heroes are actualised by their suffering for others.
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
The return of clap for carers (this time clap for heroes) leaves me with very mixed feelings because in addition to the reasons to have mixed feelings about it last time, this time I am also sickened by the way the pandemic is treated so differently when it affects regions in the south. Was there nobody worth clapping for when the North was suffering a huge amount of death and hospital strain months ago?
Lockdown: Clap for Carers to return as Clap for Heroes
Founder Annemarie Plas says the initiative will return on Thursday under the new name of Clap for Heroes.www.bbc.co.uk
As an NHS worker let me say I fucking hate it.
Does anyone have any idea what's going to happen now? Neither case numbers and certainly not hospitalizations having reached anywhere near peak yet, I imagine, and the lockdown still so much looser than March..?
What is the plan, if indeed there is one? Nightingales occasionally being mentioned but the staffing question never answered.
I am beyond terrified now for myself and friends who might be in need of any kind of hospital care.
What is the plan, if indeed there is one? Nightingales occasionally being mentioned but the staffing question never answered.
I am beyond terrified now for myself and friends who might be in need of any kind of hospital care.
maomao
普費斯
My little boy has to go for blood tests at the hospital tomorrow. He's been repeatedly ill and we've had a hell of a time even getting in touch with doctors. The hospital he's going to is one of the ones pictured on the news with dozens of ambulances queued outside. We're all terrified.
I don't see lockdown in London working as this morning I shared an absolutely packed tube with construction workers going to build luxary flats in Vauxhall. How the fuck are they keyworkers. Many not wearing masks. Easily enough to keep covid ticking over for a few weeks.
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