Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[brogdale]

Yeah, yer cunt, I would have done me BBC schoolwork, but my mum couldn't afford the the TV licence.

 

[editor]

one thing they have no mentioned in this reports is that and i have check

the offie has been told to close by 20:00

I don't think that is in the new rules in England.

Living safely with respiratory infections, including COVID-19

Guidance for living safely with respiratory infections, including coronavirus (COVID-19).

www.gov.uk

 

[Looby]

Isn't the point of closing them to stop people mixing indoors? Seems to me click and collect tackles this reasonably well.

Depends if you need to go in store. Argos and Dunelm were collect outside but I saw people going into Waterstones last lockdown.
Still mixing and stood around waiting for parcels.

 

[Ax^]

it is in north ireland so maybe they got it wrong

but that was the shout from my local shop

 

[Espresso]

Peston asking Johnson when it will all be over.
He might as well be asking how long a piece of string is. What a fart he is.

 

[hegley]

Isn't the point of closing them to stop people mixing indoors? Seems to me click and collect tackles this reasonably well.

I thought it was to generally discourage people from going out at all unless it's absolutely essential?

 

[Smangus]

No follow up questions, the coward.

 

[frogwoman]

Why doesn't he give his condolences to the relatives of 830 people?

 

[brogdale]

Yarh, we might be north of that figure, actually

Thick, posho cunt.

 

[Espresso]

Why doesn't he give his condolences to the relatives of 830 people?

Because he doesn't care.

 

[StoneRoad]

Fuck me, those figures for today are horrendous and it ain't getting better for a long while yet.
Despite the news on the vaccinations, which appears good, but really, it ought to be better !

Our little local spike is having a re-surge, it seems (and the 5 to 6 day delay in the mapping is not helping).

 

[brogdale]

schools are safe.

Thick cunt.

 

[frogwoman]

38 people tested positive in my postcode last week

 

[vanya]

Why the Tories are making such a mess of the coronavirus crisis

A Sociology of Tory Covid Short-Termism

He tried wriggling, he tried avoiding. He even went on national television and urged parents to send their children to school. But at last...

averypublicsociologist.blogspot.com

He tried wriggling, he try avoiding. He even went on national television and urged parents to send their children to school. But at last, with the weight of public opinion bearing down on him Boris Johnson was forced to announce the new national lockdown. Everyone is to stay at home apart from exercise, essential shopping, or work where it is absolutely necessary they go in. Schools, colleges, and universities are shut, and the government are pulling out all the stops to get the four highest at-risk groups vaccinated so we might return to the broken tiers system following half term in February. Lest we forget the disaster of the new, more infectious Covid variant is a product cooked up by this government's half-arsed approach since the Summer. Their refusal to take matters seriously gave the virus ample opportunity to circulate, mutate, and come back to bite us.

The timing of the announcement underlines their levity. Take schools, for example. Because Johnson dithered and delayed, just like last time, parents and teachers are left scrambling trying to organise at-home classes, and thanks to the lack of clarity in the Prime Minister's announcement he failed to mention whether schools would stay open, like last March, for children at risk or with key worker parents. It was also an announcement offering zero reassurance to other workers. Will small businesses be supported? How about the millions of self-employed Rishi Sunak purposely let fall through the gaping holes of his safety net? Are the government going to support colleges and universities left out of pocket by its late announcement, or are we carrying on letting entire sectors implode? Even by the standards set by a decade of ruinous Conservative governments, this is utterly, utterly pitiful. No matter where they set the benchmark for awfulness, it can - and does - always get lower.

Why though? This government has spent the better part of the last year failing and, not entirely coincidentally, the only accomplishment to its name is permanent damage to the country's economic clout and standing in global politics. It acts like a memory-impaired goldfish, unaware of its activities from fewer than five minutes ago, let alone days, weeks, months in the past. We can talk about Tory incompetence and stupidity, which the Leader of the Opposition has done, but the repeated failures, reticence to take action, and corrupt procurement contracts is more than simple failure. It's not about the Tories being crap.

We must dispel the notion the Tories represent the common interests of business understood in economic terms. Against the established yardsticks: GDP growth, low unemployment, low inflation, healthy export figures, low to no trade deficit, healthy wage growth alongside rising productivity and, thanks to the common sense of recent years, falling public debt, the Tories have failed. During their 10 years in charge they have occasionally invoked some or none of these indicators when it suited, but taken in the round the party's cuts programme and industrial strategy, the most damaging Brexit they could get away with, and inadequate Covid support packages should finally put pay to any suggestion they have the wellbeing of British capitalism as a whole at heart. For one, since the Thatcher years the sectional character of the Tories has grown more stark. Instead of being the voice of business-in-general, they are the condensation of finance and commercial capital (above all, City interests), its attendant property speculators and landlords, big and small, as well as firms that are particularly labour intensive, such as food production and the service sector. Hence why we had Dishy Rishi's Covid-pushing Eat Out to Help Out scheme, and the enforcing of in-person teaching at universities. In both instances, they put core, constituent and sectional interests of their party before public health.

But this doesn't quite cover it. By acting sectionally, they are still able to push the interests of business as a whole in the most crucial aspect: the question of class. A business, any business rests on exploitative relationships in which employees (as a general category) do not receive the full value of the goods or services they produce, and ultimately it's this discrepency which is the root of profit. To ensure working people carry on working, they have to accept the inevitability of workplace authority on pain of dismissal, and be compelled to sell their labour time out of economic necessity. I.e. No salary/wages = unemployment, social security, poverty, ruin. From the very first lockdown in March and announcement of the furlough scheme, the Tories have chipped away at it. They may have uprated Universal Credit by a measly £20/week, but have kept it purposely low so people remain compelled to seek employment, and as soon as they felt able the whole sanctions regime came roaring back. Time and again, Dishy Rishi wanted to limit or cut furlough payments until the iron hand of political necessity forced him to back off. But all the time, the Tories never explicitly told workplaces to close, and happily talked up a mass return to work in the summer. The reason was simple - for them the idea there were people at home paid to do nothing was anathama. For one, this is a privilege reserved for capitalists and landlords. For two, it flew in the face of their ideology because in reality it threatens the very basis of waged labour. All of a sudden, their idea of work incentives were upended and the notion people weren't subject to the petty tyranny of management, and therefore its discipline, was very worrisome indeed. Sunak tried mitigating this by tying furlough to one's employment from the off, but all said and done he could only go so far. Therefore, the preference the Tories have for short lockdowns and starting everything up as quickly as possible reflects the pressure they feel acutely to getting class relationships back to how they were - the longer they leave it, the more difficult reasserting discipline will be. Reasserting it, ensuring employees don't have ideas above their station is an interest all business share.

Habits of mind have a great deal of inertia, especially in collective enterprises where organisations rests on certain common senses and tradition. But its about the worst thing for managing pandemics. In addition to the interests the Tory party articulates, its strategy is blighted by the party default for short termism. Used to lurching from one daily crisis to the next for so long, it is now incapable of the most modest of medium term planning. Hence the dog's dinner we have in front of us and, in all likelihood, what will be a premature lifting of this third lockdown. A situation, worryingly, bound to bode ill for millions and threatens us all.

 

[PD58]

Am, i stupid, but surely amongst SAGE et al there is a sub group that considers worst case scenarios such as:
1. Virus mutates, is transmitted more quickly, presents a wider set of conditions and vaccines do not work
2. Virus mutates, is transmitted more quickly, presents a wider set of conditions and vaccines do work
etc etc.
and has a strategy, plans in place to deal with each of these...

Listening to Whitty and Valance it seems it is all reaction and no proactivity...
Prof Chris Whitty says the UK's chief medical officers met yesterday morning and reviewed data, before then advising the country should move to alert level five.
Sir Patrick Vallance adds that the view from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) was that it was "likely" that more measures would be needed due to the increased transmissibility of the new variant.

Frankly they all are giving a good impression of utter incompetence.

 

[andysays]

schools are safe.

Thick cunt.

They're a lot safer now that they're closed to all but children of key workers and those with vulnerabilities, TBF

 

[bimble]

Do you regret 3 million kids mixing for one pointless day which will inevitably lead to vastly increased infections & deaths ? He didn’t hear that question at all.

 

[Ax^]

who the fuck came up with this "Get the Jab" slogan

still not see any of the current Tory wanker stand up to get the jab

 

[rubbershoes]

Email from the school today

Last evening Mr Johnson, Prime Minister, informed us that we would move back into a national lockdown and school would be closed to a majority of students. Although this appeared a shock to the Prime Minister, we had been planning for such an event for some time

I'm pleased that the people educating my children have as low an opinion of him as I do

 

[xenon]

Surely the South African variant couldn't be immune so quickly? I thought that it wasn't such a big deal to alter the vaccines to make them cover different mutations? Or is this just to cover up the fact there's not enough vaccines?

I think it's called vaccine escape. And they don't know yet whether the SA variant can entirely, partially or not at all evade the vaccine. Also, whether it is more or less severe than the main varients in circulation. *Younger people in hospital may be a result of the greater transmissibility and areas which have still been open.

But from what I can gather, it has quite a few changes in the spike proteins which affects transmisssability. Obviously this is being looked at. The experts seem to think the current RNA vaccines could be tweeked relatively quickly to adapt, weeks, though this may also need to be authorized by regulatory authorities. Depending on how much is changed I spose.

* Just my thoughts, caviets etc. A greater number of younger people being hospitalised may speak to it's increased transmisability rather than a more severe effect persay. Not a lot else where people mix, has been open apart from schools, and colleges until yesterday. Older age groups may not have school age children or be living with any / many young / younger adults. So of those hospitalised the younger groups are a greater proportion.

 

[brogdale]

Do you regret 3 million kids mixing for one pointless day which will inevitably lead to vastly increased infections & deaths ? He didn’t hear that question at all.

He did; it wasn't the question that was the problem.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

who the fuck came up with this "Get the Jab" slogan

still not see any of the current Tory wanker stand up to get the jab

Well, they shouldn't be should they.

Maybe they should roll out someone like Norman Tebbit but they might struggle to find any blood flowing.

 

[weepiper]

Why doesn't he give his condolences to the relatives of 830 people?

Every day, Nicola Sturgeon starts her press conference (which she has been quietly doing more or less every day since March last year) by saying something along the lines of 'I'm very sorry to have to report that (x number of) people have very sadly died in the last 24 hours with Covid, and I would like to offer my deepest condolences to every one of their friends and relatives'. That floppy haired cunt just waltzed straight into his bullshit waffle about vaccines without even pausing to mention them. It was breathtaking.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

Btw, off topic but how the hell is Tebbit still alive? Only the good die young etc but that's just taking the piss.

 

[TopCat]

Surely the shops in the big retail parks are closed?

Dawn of the dead...

 

[teqniq]

Apparently Williamson had this data but kept schtum about it. Resigning matter much?

Exclusive: Teacher Covid rates up to 333% above average

Teacher infections far outstripping local rates, figures from three local authorities obtained by the NASUWT reveal

www.tes.com

 

[brogdale]

Apparently Williamson had this data but kept schtum about it. Resigning matter much?

Exclusive: Teacher Covid rates up to 333% above average

Teacher infections far outstripping local rates, figures from three local authorities obtained by the NASUWT reveal

www.tes.com

But, but the Prime Minister said that schools are safe.

 

[Sprocket.]

Every day, Nicola Sturgeon starts her press conference (which she has been quietly doing more or less every day since March last year) by saying something along the lines of 'I'm very sorry to have to report that (x number of) people have very sadly died in the last 24 hours with Covid, and I would like to offer my deepest condolences to every one of their friends and relatives'. That floppy haired cunt just waltzed straight into his bullshit waffle about vaccines without even pausing to mention them. It was breathtaking.

Tories cannot even feign sincerity, so they don’t bother with believable compassion.

 

[elbows]

Am, i stupid, but surely amongst SAGE et al there is a sub group that considers worst case scenarios such as:
1. Virus mutates, is transmitted more quickly, presents a wider set of conditions and vaccines do not work
2. Virus mutates, is transmitted more quickly, presents a wider set of conditions and vaccines do work
etc etc.
and has a strategy, plans in place to deal with each of these...

Listening to Whitty and Valance it seems it is all reaction and no proactivity...
Prof Chris Whitty says the UK's chief medical officers met yesterday morning and reviewed data, before then advising the country should move to alert level five.
Sir Patrick Vallance adds that the view from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) was that it was "likely" that more measures would be needed due to the increased transmissibility of the new variant.

Frankly they all are giving a good impression of utter incompetence.

If we werent somewhat proactive about mutations then we wouldnt even have noticed the new variant. We were proactive enough to do various genome surveillance, and for various expert groups to have written about the importance of keeping this situation under close watch wne planning to roll out vaccination programmes.

The question of ascertaining all the facts and taking the right action at the right time is a much broader one that soon falls into territory beset by failure in this pandemic so far. So Im not complacent about this stuff. But there are no easy answers and a failure to do the right thing and be proactive is about far more than spotting the dangers in theory in advance.

Its the same as modelling - one of the reasons it can be so limited is that they model certain scenarios, and what is considered politically acceptable and thus 'practical' impacts on what scenarios are modelled, and what advice ends up being generated as a result.

In terms of the new variant, NERVTAG in December when discussing the UK variant did make this recommendation:

NERVTAG recommends that ajoint NERVTAG-SPI-Msubgroup of SAGE is convened to provide further advice on risk and riskmitigation measuresfor VUI-202012/01.

(from the end of Box )

I would expect the scope of such things to have quickly expanded to include the South Africa strain too.

 

[elbows]

I suspect there will be a very limited number of ways in which this virus will be able to escape vaccines and remain so infectious. I don’t see this being like influenza A because that’s really quite exceptional in the way different strains of it can recombine so easily.

I don’t think flu comparisons are realistic. I think it’s much more likely that once we have vaccinated against the “easy” mutations of this, then it’s going to become a niche thing that we can move on from. Whether that takes one year or ten years time will tell.

By the way I havent had much time to read about recombination and coronaviruses. I was familiar with the concept from influenza, but my knowledge was basic and has gone rusty. I have seen references to recombination in the current pandemic context though, eg in this late September NERVTAG document about SARS-CoV-2 genetic changes.

NERVTAG: Is there evidence for genetic change in SARS-CoV-2 and if so, do mutations affect virus phenotype? - 30 September 2020

Paper prepared by the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG).

www.gov.uk

SARS-CoV-2 is a coronavirus, with a large 30kb positive strand RNA genome. An integral part of the replication mechanism in coronaviruses involves a discontinuous step in the synthesis of viral RNA, with the natural consequence of a high degree of a recombination resulting in the insertion of viral and non-viral sequences into or deletion of viral sequence from the genome. This is one of the major processes by which coronaviruses switch host range or change their pathogenesis/virulence. Recombination with either an unsampled SARS-like virus or human, bat or pangolin host sequence probably gave rise to the furin cleavage site that is found within the SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein and may contribute to infectivity and transmissibility. SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV are thought to have had recombination in their evolutionary history (1, 2) and in new outbreaks (3). Deletions in the genome of the porcine coronavirus transmissible gastroenteritis virus (TGEV) have given rise to a new virus called porcine respiratory coronavirus (PRCV) (4). Human coronavirus OC43 is thought to have acquired the hemagglutinin esterase (HE) gene from recombination between a progenitor coronavirus and influenza C virus.