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Dan U said:
As I posted a few days back, from a workforce perspective mass shut downs is a v poor outcome. Shut a load of schools in an area and you knock out a significant chunk of workers who then become carers.
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Other countries have managed and done it early particularly Vietnam getting a grip on community spread (they also quarantined the bits of the border region).
I feel proactive measures are required, loads of people who don't have children could do stuff contact tracing or whatever.
 
sihhi said:
Other countries have managed and done it early particularly Vietnam getting a grip on community spread (they also quarantined the bits of the border region).
I feel proactive measures are required, loads of people who don't have children could do stuff contact tracing or whatever.
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You are comparing the UK to cultures where they look after their own elderly. We don't do that.
 
Dan U said:
I know I have a social care focus here but that is my world.

Read the exec summary of this report

Over 1m workers in social care. Over 80% are female (therefore likely to become the main carer in a family crisis). Vacancy rate over 100k. Real crisis of non NHS nurses.
Big chunk on zero hours. These are the people who support everyone outside of hospitals. Which is a huge number

This is one of the many things keeping planners awake at night.

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I do understand, I have caring duties living beside my sick mother.

However we can also have the opposite scenario: transmission from child (acquired at school) to careworker parent (all within the 14 day incubation period) and then going on to do social care.

The deaths in America are from a nursing home with an infected asymptomatic worker suspected in the process.
 
sihhi said:
I do understand, I have caring duties living beside my sick mother.

However we can also have the opposite scenario: transmission from child (acquired at school) to careworker parent (all within the 14 day incubation period) and then going on to do social care.

The deaths in America are from a nursing home with an infected asymptomatic worker suspected in the process.
Click to expand...

There are no easy answers here. I'm not disputing that. My instinct is like yours, shut everything, but I can see why the planners aren't doing it.
 
Yet another angle to look at it from is that the most draconian periods, lockdowns etc are only sustainable for a certain period of time.

So you have to pick and choose when that time will be.

I dont know if doing it at the very start would actually have made sense, given that the very start wasnt the real start, there had been lag, and so the virus had already been seeded to various parts of the globe. If it had been contained in one or a few locations then the equations would be different. But instead we have a situation where, even if we locked down and used all our 'war footing' capacity to avoid community spread here, we would be vulnerable as soon as we were forced to relax everything again. Time gained would be at the expense of everything from morale to supplies and capacity. We would have delayed the first peak, without doing anything to actually change the shape of the peak when it ultimately arrived. As opposed to what it sounds like they are actually going to try, which is to introduce the most extreme response only when the first epidemic is considered to be fully underway.
 
I don't think this is something that can be "picked and chosen", I think community spread means that where that happened the social distancing must begin ASAP.

I don't see why supplies would be further expleted the social structures and formations in that area have to change not the supply of goods in toto, if anything supplies would be less, people in that area would essentially not go out saving on the alcohol sanitiser.

which is to introduce the most extreme response only when the first epidemic is considered to be fully underway.
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By which time the spread is too great and the area of application has to be widened and the time of application has to be extended.

In Wuhan in spite of everyone wear masks or face imprisonment there are still a lot of infective people from David Cowhig's diary a day ago

Yesterday I was still asking where those several hundred new coronavirus cases found each day in Wuhan come from. Today Mother told me that her two elder sisters yesterday got confirmed diagnoses of coronavirus pneumonia. An elderly auntie who lives alone ran out of food after twenty days. About a week before she got her diagnosis, she spent several days shopping I heard she joined a group purchasing group as well. Two days later she developed a low-grade fever. She probably believed then that she could leave things to luck but her condition suddenly got worse two days later. Her breathing became labored and by the time she called the 120 emergency assistance number she had nearly fainted.

It's been 40 days and still restrictions can't be lifted, there's still spread going on.
In other places where restrictions started sooner w.r.t. community transmission they have already been lifted. In several provinces there are basically no restrictions except masks and earlier closures of venues in the evenings.

I think the British government ideas are just based around respiratory infective diseases like influenza where the infective asymptomatic period is 1-2 days, but here we have 5-7 days. I want obviously to be proved wrong, that it is under control and being handled well.
 
Well I'm not claiming its being handled well, and at no stage have I had any sense that it is under control.

Its too early to comment on China really because we have to wait and see what actually happens there in the weeks and months after restrictions are relaxed.

There is a lot of uncharted territory, mixed in with stuff we think we have learnt about this virus, various preconceived notions and balancing acts. I'm really just commenting on some of these as we go along. I dont know which options and timing will turn out to be best, whether minds will suddenly be changed at some point and the plan changed, whether I will have to wait 2 weeks or 2 months to learn some important new lessons (or have existing ones confirmed).
 
Was watching our local news and they did a piece on Ellen DeGeneres. She has a television show, "Ellen", and it has a very large audience.

She devoted part of her show to "how to wash your hands". The entire thing was based on the WHO's 17 step procedure.

Really got a chuckle when she was demonstrating how to wash between your fingers. "Here is the church and here is the steeple, open the doors - and see all the people running from the virus."
I guess it is only funny if you know the childhood rhyme.

 
It's a fricking joke - lighten up!!!

remind me again, aren't you supposed to sing your national anthem while washing your hands -> :D
 
Spot the flaw in this thinking:

Just looking back at the press conference given just after noon by the NSW health minister Brad Hazzard and the chief medical officer Kerry Chant; the key take-away is there are now two cases in that state of people being infected with coronavirus where the infection can not be traced back to a source. This means community transmission has occurred, though the community transmission has so far been contained in both cases – there is no widespread infection occurring.
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The latest case of community transmission involves a 50-year-old woman working at the BaptistCare Dorothy Henderson Lodge aged care facility in northern Sydney. She had not travelled to an affected country. On Monday, a 53-year-old doctor working at Ryde hospital was also diagnosed, and again he had not travelled to an infected country. Neither had knowingly been in contact with an infected person.
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42m ago 02:42

There is other stuff I could go on about in that entry too but I ran out of energy for it.
 
elbows said:
Yet another angle to look at it from is that the most draconian periods, lockdowns etc are only sustainable for a certain period of time.

So you have to pick and choose when that time will be.

I dont know if doing it at the very start would actually have made sense, given that the very start wasnt the real start, there had been lag, and so the virus had already been seeded to various parts of the globe. If it had been contained in one or a few locations then the equations would be different. But instead we have a situation where, even if we locked down and used all our 'war footing' capacity to avoid community spread here, we would be vulnerable as soon as we were forced to relax everything again. Time gained would be at the expense of everything from morale to supplies and capacity. We would have delayed the first peak, without doing anything to actually change the shape of the peak when it ultimately arrived. As opposed to what it sounds like they are actually going to try, which is to introduce the most extreme response only when the first epidemic is considered to be fully underway.
Click to expand...

I saw a press conference, and I can't remember if it was the chief medical officer or chief scientific officer that was speaking, but that's actually what they said, when explaining now wouldn't be the right time for the most draconian measures.
 
bimble said:
Amazon struggles to halt tide of coronavirus profiteers :(
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It’s an absolute disgrace - I had a look on Amazon UK site the other day and some 3M masks were £78 and described for use as protection against Coronavirus in attempt to profiteer over people’s concerns.

And I’m not convinced Amazon give a fuck as they cream 15% off 3rd party sales, so - whatever they say may well just be lip service.
 
I dont understand how the Irish government is faffing about. Just like the UK with Boris insisting on shaking hands etc and saying that schools wont need to close. And they dont know how it will pan out????? Wtf???

I mean one look at news around the world shows how other countries are dealing with this.

20200304_090615.jpg
South Korean soldiers spray antiseptic solution against the coronavirus in Guryong, Seoul


So how come the reaction in certain parts of the world is so careful? And the governments in the UK and Ireland are blissfully wandering around in feigned ignorance? Are they afraid people will panic if they tell the truth? Sure everyone sees how the world is dealing with this. Do they think people are thick?
 
Second case diagnosed in the Republic of Ireland. That's 3 on the island of Ireland.

The second case is in the east of the country. A woman who travelled from Italy..
The first case, a secondary school pupil, is still in hospital. The school he attends has beeb closed for 3 weeks and a band practice group he attended last weekend, has also been asked to self isolate.


And yet Varadkar is saying to go ahead with st Patricks day parades?
And we have Prince William over here cracking jokes saying to paramedics that the coronavirus is a bit hyped up by the media
..fuckwit.


He asked Joe Mooney, an advance paramedic with the National Ambulance Service: “I bet everyone’s like ‘I’ve got coronavirus, I’m dying’, and you’re like ‘no, you’ve just got a cough’.

“Does it seem quite dramatic about coronavirus at the moment? Is it being a little bit hyped up do you think in the media?”
www.thejournal.ie

Prince William jokes about 'spreading coronavirus' during Irish visit

The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge are on a three-day visit to Ireland.
www.thejournal.ie www.thejournal.ie
 
Lupa said:
I dont understand how the Irish government is faffing about. Just like the UK with Boris insisting on shaking hands etc and saying that schools wont need to close. And they dont know how it will pan out????? Wtf???

I mean one look at news around the world shows how other countries are dealing with this.

View attachment 200492
South Korean soldiers spray antiseptic solution against the coronavirus in Guryong, Seoul


So how come the reaction in certain parts of the world is so careful? And the governments in the UK and Ireland are blissfully wandering around in feigned ignorance? Are they afraid people will panic if they tell the truth? Sure everyone sees how the world is dealing with this. Do they think people are thick?
Click to expand...

As some of the worlds experts in this kind of thing I'd trust the UK response more tbh. Being the experts we can perhaps have a more measured response.

I'm talking about the health care professionals here - not our crappy politicians.
 
Interesting article talking about how all the numbers are basically massively influenced by different governments' approaches to testing, and they really can't tell you anything about whether or not the virus is spreading faster or slower:

www.theatlantic.com

The Official Coronavirus Numbers Are Wrong, and Everyone Knows It

Because the U.S. data on coronavirus infections are so deeply flawed, the quantification of the outbreak obscures more than it illuminates.
www.theatlantic.com www.theatlantic.com
 
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