I'm not trying to do that (and, in any event, it's not really provable either way). I'm genuinely interested in what level of confidence you think we can have in such an assumption given what we know about her and this field (where I'm sure you know more than me).
I'll have to think more about how to answer this.
re. the field, I wouldn't claim to know a great deal at all, it's a specialism, but one with a lot of research behind it, well funded.