Brexit or Bremain - Urban votes

[DotCommunist]

Bearing in mind that a leave vote will strengthen the hand of the most right wing tories and all but hand the keys to the kingdom to one B. Johnson.

oh come on, it wouldn't do that at all. The greatest thing a narrow out vote could do is fuck the tory party so bad they are to riven to achieve any policy decisions or win an elections for two to three generations. Its happened before.

 

[SpookyFrank]

I'm so glad we made the poll tax revolt about how it would play out in the tory or labour party. Their internal battles are ded something to concentrate on. Not any independent politics.

You're equating a vote to leave the EU with rioting against government policy now?

 

[SpookyFrank]

You almost did 10 posts arguing a position in a row there frank.

You should try it some time.

 

[butchersapron]

You're equating a vote to leave the EU with rioting against government policy now?

I'm suggesting that opposition to a state/capital policy shouldn't rely on how it might play out for the labour or tory party. I shouldn't have to.

 

[SpookyFrank]

I'm suggesting that opposition to a state/capital policy shouldn't rely on how it might play out for the labour or tory party. I shouldn't have to.

Opposition to capital is not an option on the ballot. Capital will adapt and repurpose the new status quo as it always does, no matter the outcome.

 

[butchersapron]

Opposition to capital is not an option on the ballot.

There is an option to disorganise capital. But that's not what you were even concerned with. Just a genetic ant-eu = racist blah blah

 

[SpookyFrank]

Just a genetic ant-eu = racist blah blah

I've never said that an anti EU position is inherently racist. I haven't even tried to convince anyone else to vote one way or the other, I'm just defending my own position after you were kind enough to name-drop me earlier on.

Anyone claiming that either option will definitely make things better, or definitely stop them getting worse, would need to have something very convincing to back that position up with. Because all I can see are two bad options, two marginally different forms of neoliberal capitalism, and no real solid information on what either one would actually entail.

I have changed my own mind on this more than once. I have no right to call anyone on either side racist or stupid or anything else.

 

[butchersapron]

I've never said that an anti EU position is inherently racist. I haven't even tried to convince anyone else to vote one way or the other, I'm just defending my own position after you were kind enough to name-drop me earlier on.

Anyone claiming that either option will definitely make things better, or definitely stop them getting worse, would need to have something very convincing to back that position up with. Because all I can see are two bad options, two marginally different forms of neoliberal capitalism, and no real solid information on what either one would actually entail.

I have changed my own mind on this more than once. I have no right to call anyone on either side racist or stupid or anything else.

To argue that one position = expulsions of your mates (and you've done this over and over) + opposing that position = racist. That's it there.

 

[redsquirrel]

There is no 'vote EU' on the ballot. There is an option for the UK to stay in the EU given that it already exists and will continue to do so no matter what we do. This is a pretty clear distinction which you seem to be ignoring on purpose.

If the UK does leave then the EU will be in utter crisis. There will be an increased chance of other countries leaving or at least pushing to leave. In the Netherlands an anti-EU referendum vote won, Austria has voted in favour of a potential anti-EU president. The EU will continue to exist post a UK leave but further exits, and ultimately the disintegration, become more likely.

 

[ViolentPanda]

Austria election: Far-right tops first round of presidential vote - BBC News

Same old same old for Austria, then.

 

[laptop]

FFS. People feeling that their friends and colleagues may be expelled is an issue in the referendum.

If there were a Leave vote and there weren't expulsions, many, possibly most, of those who voted to leave would be... very disappointed. It's the point for them - whether they're out-and-out racists or "the island's full up" wibblies. Or both, like the late Mr Goldsmith.

The argument that the government would never do it in the event of a Leave vote is very much like people believing that the Tories would never be as nasty as they promised to be, because LibDems. Look where that's got us.

Is it because it is an issue that resonates that it attracts such an attack?

 

[butchersapron]

FFS. People feeling that their friends and colleagues may be expelled is an issue in the referendum.

If there were a Leave vote and there weren't expulsions, many, possibly most, of those who voted to leave would be... very disappointed. It's the point for them - whether they're out-and-out racists or "the island's full up" wibblies. Or both, like the late Mr Goldsmith.

The argument that the government would never do it in the event of a Leave vote is very much like people believing that the Tories would never be as nasty as they promised to be, because LibDems. Look where that's got us.

Is it because it is an issue that resonates that it attracts such an attack?

Feel? Of course - it's a big thing on the stay lie. Because liberal idiots like you want it to be true. And it must be true as as you're lovely internationalists and everyone else is a little englander. It's not. Stop lying about the EU - and stop lying about people lying about the EU.

The rest, grow up - fantasy,

 

[Brainaddict]

Yeah, so expulsions. despite now capital or state wanting that to happen. It's bizarre.

I think a very likely scenario on Brexit is that a line gets drawn down the middle of Europe. Westerners get a deal that more or less maintains the status quo, Easterners will likely get a visa system of some sort. Most of those already in the UK (apart from possibly recent arrivals) will get to stay, at least for now.

Do we agree up to that point? Or you really think East Europeans wouldn't start getting treated differently?

So, the next step is more speculative, but we can make some guesses. Those already in the UK will be allowed to stay but there may be conditions. Maybe you aren't entitled to the same benefits as citizens, ever. If you are out of work for more than x number of months, you have to go home. This would require a surveillance system, and quite a substantial one, but we know what they've done to non-EU students, so they won't balk at such a system will they? Then maybe there will be other rules. If you leave the country for more than X amount of time, you can't come back, or you come back on the new visa system with a 2-year max stay or if you have a job offer or something. So no long trips, and if you have to go and look after family for a bit, that's it. Does this seem unlikely to you? And what happens to partners of British citizens in this system? To become British citizens do they have to fulfill the hideous income requirements already imposed on non-EU partners?

It may all seem like speculation, and to some extent it has to be because no-ones talking much about post-Brexit policy. But we know what an immigration system imposed by the right looks like, because we already have it. Just not for EU citizens. Yet.

I don't think this is scaremongering. I think it would be naive not to see where the exit path is likely to lead. The real grassroots rightwing headbangers are going to be upset that there aren't mass expulsions, so they'll be placated with all this type of awkward conditional stuff (to prove that only hard workers are allowed to stay and so on) which will really fuck with people's lives. Our rulers will manage it so they can still bring in enough cheap labour of course, but also so that they can get rid of people much more easily.

You're right that the EU borders are hideous, and so are the UK policies towards non-EU migrants. But if more borders get imposed within this? That's just more misery. I think it's a pretty likely outcome.

 

[butchersapron]

Nothing will change. This is the reverse scaremongering.

 

[Brainaddict]

Nothing will change. This is the reverse scaremongering.

You think people would put up with that? From the right, all this stuff about the EU compromising democracy and so on is bullshit. At the grassroots the demand to leave the EU is a demand to control migration from Eastern Europe. That's what it's all about*. If the brexit Tories win they'll have to respond to that, or they'll be out on their ear for a decade or so.

*Edit to add: on reflection, this sentence may have been slightly hyperbolic, but it is a very big factor.

 

[laptop]

Feel? Of course - it's a big thing on the stay lie. Because liberal idiots like you want it to be true. And it must be true as as you're lovely internationalists and everyone else is a little englander. It's not. Stop lying about the EU - and stop lying about people lying about the EU.
,

What lie?

 

[butchersapron]

You think people would put up with that? From the right, all this stuff about the EU compromising democracy and so on is bullshit. At the grassroots the demand to leave the EU is a demand to control migration from Eastern Europe. That's what it's all about. If the brexit Tories win they'll have to respond to that, or they'll be out on their ear for a decade or so.

Put up with what? They put up with nothing for decades plus - so yep.

Your post is a mess of rushed things. It, as ever with you pro-eu types, is all about the tories, because that's all you can see. Tories. And you can only see tories because you can only see the w/c as right-wing racists.

 

[butchersapron]

What lie?

Line

 

[SpookyFrank]

You're right that the EU borders are hideous, and so are the UK policies towards non-EU migrants. But if more borders get imposed within this? That's just more misery. I think it's a pretty likely outcome.

This, in a nutshell.

If we leave the EU, it will be a tory government which gets to create a new immigration policy. And they will claim the referendum result as a mandate to do all sorts of unpleasant things. They're not going to kick everyone out overnight, but nor are they going to miss the chance to tighten the screws on the 'wrong kind' of migrants. Look at Theresa May's 35,000 pound rule if you want a good example of government thinking on this issue.

Whatever your intentions, your vote to leave will be used as ammunition by the right because it is the right who are dominating the leave camp and it is the right who are in power.

 

[Brainaddict]

Put up with what? They put up with nothing for decades plus - so yep.

Your post is a mess of rushed things. It, as ever with you pro-eu types, is all about the tories, because that's all you can see. Tories. And you can only see tories because you can only see the w/c as right-wing racists.

I'm not calling people racists. I don't think the aversion to mass migration is always racist, so don't put words in my mouth. There *is* a strong feeling among many people against the number of Eastern Europeans who have come to the UK (which is not the same as disliking them as people). This will be a key driver in the Brexit vote, and will be decisive for a lot of people. If you really don't see that then you're even more removed from the working class than I am with my fancy middle class ways

 

[butchersapron]

I'm not calling people racists. I don't think the aversion to mass migration is always racist, so don't put words in my mouth. There *is* a strong feeling among many people against the number of Eastern Europeans who have come to the UK (which is not the same as disliking them as people). This will be a key driver in the Brexit vote, and will be decisive for a lot of people. If you really don't see that then you're even more removed from the working class than I am with my fancy middle class ways

I didn't mention migration - how dare you put your fears about others fears in my mouth.

 

[laptop]

. Stop lying about the EU - and stop lying about people lying about the EU.,

What lie?

 

[redsquirrel]

Whatever your intentions, your vote to leave will be used as ammunition by the right because it is the right who are dominating the leave camp and it is the right who are in power.

And the stay camp - Cameron, the CBI, Obama, Alan Johnson and Umunna - somehow a vote for then isn't going to be used as ammunition?

 

[butchersapron]

What lie?

That is the result an a leave vote there will be mass expulsions.

 

[laptop]

That is the result an a leave vote there will be mass expulsions.

When you're sober, will you take back the accusation that I lied?

 

[SpookyFrank]

And the stay camp - Cameron, the CBI, Obama, Alan Johnson and Umunna - somehow a vote for then isn't going to be used as ammunition?

Of course it will, but it won't provide a mandate for anyone to actively make things worse.

I like the idea of some kind of team involving Obama, Cameron, Johnson and Umunna though. Like a kind of Justice League of people who all hate each other and all have completely different agendas.

 

[butchersapron]

When you're sober, will you take back the accusation that I lied?

You lied - your posts are a pathetic suggestion that people who disagree are legally wrong. You patina of legal authority went years ago,

 

[butchersapron]

The left wing people here supporting the eu were never left wing - just middle class eu progressives. Bottles outside vs cans outside.

 

[redsquirrel]

Of course it will, but it won't provide a mandate for anyone to actively make things worse.

So a vote that upsets capital, the UK government, the EU and the Tory party provides a mandate for people to make things worse but a vote which props up the support for those groups doesn't. Sorry I find this absolute nonsense.

I mean ignoring the wider question a (decent) Remain win clearly gives a mandate to the Cameron/Osbourne group.

 

[Brainaddict]

The left wing people here supporting the eu were never left wing - just middle class eu progressives. Bottles outside vs cans outside.

There's a world of difference between 'supporting the EU', and not wanting to vote for exit at this referendum. Christ, you can argue on some days. This is not one of those days.