Birmingham Erdington Byelection Thread - 2022

[PR1Berske]

 

[tim]

Doesn't include those MPs who've had the whip suspended: Rob Roberts, Neil Coyle, etc

 

[PR1Berske]

Doesn't include those MPs who've had the whip suspended: Rob Roberts, Neil Coyle, etc

I'm assuming they're under the "Ind" designation.

 

[tim]

I'm assuming they're under the "Ind" designation.

Yes, I clearly am incredibly stupid.

 

[nogojones]

Briefly popping out of my urban hiatus to say my sister who lives in Erdington got canvassed by two of the parties; TUSC, and the christian anti-vax anti-trans family breakdown is destroying the economy crew. She's barely home so it's quite impressive anyone's managed to catch her. She also said the Conservative party have been pushing leaflets through disguised as looking like neutral community newspaper things, which they've done before, but labour seem to be doing something similar with facebook memes/comments that they've been caught out on. There's a lot of talk on one of the local Facebook groups about how Paulette has a link with one of the big HMO organisations in the area (these are a massive problem in Erdington and even made it into the guardian a while back). I'll see if I can get her to send me photos of some of the leaflets because the christian one was batshit.

Nice to see you again, even if its only fleeting

 

[muscovyduck]

Socialist Party commentary on the result
The message from Erdington - Socialist Party

 

[killer b]

I think one of the takeaways TUSC should consider from this is that left wing voters won't risk voting for them if they think there's a chance of it resulting in a Tory MP. There seemed to be a wide expectation that it was going to be close, an expectation mostly created I suspect by the Labour Party, who were still saying it would be close right up to the close of polls.

There was literally nothing in the polls, in our understanding of how by-elections tend to work, no local issues that suggested it could be close, nothing at all - yet it seems to have caught hold nonetheless, to the detriment of TUSC (and all the other smaller parties tbf). How do they get past this very effective lie?

 

[muscovyduck]

I think one of the takeaways TUSC should consider from this is that left wing voters won't risk voting for them if they think there's a chance of it resulting in a Tory MP. There seemed to be a wide expectation that it was going to be close, an expectation mostly created I suspect by the Labour Party, who were still saying it would be close right up to the close of polls.

There was literally nothing in the polls, in our understanding of how by-elections tend to work, no local issues that suggested it could be close, nothing at all - yet it seems to have caught hold nonetheless, to the detriment of TUSC (and all the other smaller parties tbf). How do they get past this very effective lie?

I remember the last election there was a lot of hype then about it being close - people all over social media trying to convince students who'd moved away to vote for labour in Erdington rather than vote where they're studying

 

[muscovyduck]

iirc both the labour and tory candidates were already councillors but none of the others were? I can see that being a big factor. But then you're left with the same issue in a council election innit

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

I think one of the takeaways TUSC should consider from this is that left wing voters won't risk voting for them if they think there's a chance of it resulting in a Tory MP. There seemed to be a wide expectation that it was going to be close, an expectation mostly created I suspect by the Labour Party, who were still saying it would be close right up to the close of polls.

There was literally nothing in the polls, in our understanding of how by-elections tend to work, no local issues that suggested it could be close, nothing at all - yet it seems to have caught hold nonetheless, to the detriment of TUSC (and all the other smaller parties tbf). How do they get past this very effective lie?

There has been a definite shift in the atmosphere round here though. I’ve socialised and lived here for over 3 decades and the once solid, left wing, working class feel of Erdington just isn’t the same anymore. A Tory MP seems like a very real possibility.

 

[killer b]

iirc both the labour and tory candidates were already councillors but none of the others were? I can see that being a big factor.

the big factor is they were the Labour and Tory candidates tbh

 

[killer b]

There has been a definite shift in the atmosphere round here though. I’ve socialised and lived here for over 3 decades and the once solid, left wing, working class feel of Erdington just isn’t the same anymore. A Tory MP seems like a very real possibility.

the numbers point in the opposite direction, at least since the 2010 low point

 

[killer b]

(actually the numbers don't say much about how left wing or working class the area is - they do say that the Labour vote is solid and there's no real possibility of a Tory MP)

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

the numbers point in the opposite direction, at least since the 2010 low point

Yeah, I know. But it somehow doesn’t feel like that. Particularly since the idiocy of 2016 the right wing voice seems a lot louder round here. Maybe they’re just a vocal minority and getting too much attention, but I can understand peoples reluctance to vote anything other than labour, “just in case”.

 

[killer b]

everywhere feels more right wing since the local newspapers all got facebook pages and the comments on their stories started getting broadcasted into your feeds daily tbf