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Birmingham Erdington Byelection Thread - 2022

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Erdington has historically had low turnout​

In the 2019 general election, 53.4% of eligible Erdington voters went to the polls. This is significantly lower than the national turnout rate, which was 67.3%.
Turnout in by-elections is nearly always lower than in a general election. In addition, the weather has been bad today. This is why it is thought turnout will be low once the votes are counted tonight.
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From Birmingham Live:

The election results in full​

Full results of the Birmingham Erdington by-election:
Lab hold
Paulette Hamilton (Lab) 9,413 (55.51%)
Robert Alden (C) 6,147 (36.25%)
Dave Nellist (TUSC) 360 (2.12%)
Jack Brookes (Reform) 293 (1.73%)
Siobhan Harper-Nunes (Green) 236 (1.39%)
Lee Dargue (LD) 173 (1.02%)
Michael Lutwyche (Ind) 109 (0.64%)
Mel Mbondiah (CPA) 79 (0.47%)
Thomas O’Rourke (Ind) 76 (0.45%)
SirNosDa The Good Knight (Loony) 49 (0.29%)
Clifton Holmes (Ind) 14 (0.08%)
David Bishop (BP Elvis) 8 (0.05%)
Lab maj 3,266 (19.26%)
Electorate 62,996; Turnout 16,957 (26.92%, -26.34%)
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And here are the results from the 2019 general election, in case you want to compare them
2019: Lab maj 3,601 (10.22%) – Turnout 35,229 (53.26%)
Dromey (Lab) 17,720 (50.30%); Alden (C) 14,119 (40.08%); Garcarz (Brexit) 1,441 (4.09%); Holtom (LD) 1,301 (3.69%); Grant (Green) 648 (1.84%)
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YouSir said:
Not much of a majority no matter how much you fixate on vote share. Not much of a result for TUSC either, given the effort that went in. Still beat Lib Dems, Greens and Reform though, all of whom have more profile by default.
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hadn't noticed he'd beaten the libscum, excellent!

(tho also an indication of the informal alliance agreed nationally so as to minimise tory hopes)
 
YouSir said:
They've jettisoned Corbyn, had Covid & Ukraine war since then. Anything but expanding the majority looks shit for Labour.
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on half the turnout you should expect half the majority, so it went up. The tories went backwards. I'm not sure Ukraine has helped labour any. And its a piss tiny turnout for a by election that shouldn't have too much read into it. They did okay, not brilliantly, but reasonably well.
 
belboid said:
on half the turnout you should expect half the majority, so it went up. The tories went backwards. I'm not sure Ukraine has helped labour any. And its a piss tiny turnout for a by election that shouldn't have too much read into it. They did okay, not brilliantly, but reasonably well.
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If after all the constant corruption and calamity you can't get people politically engaged enough to turn out for a by election you're throwing MPs and effort at then that's a failure. It might be a decent result by vote share but beyond party politics it's shitty and even within it any minor uptick in Tory turnout and you're done. Your own voters evidently aren't coming out so if they can get theirs to then there you go.
 
YouSir said:
If after all the constant corruption and calamity you can't get people politically engaged enough to turn out for a by election you're throwing MPs and effort at then that's a failure. It might be a decent result by vote share but beyond party politics it's shitty and even within it any minor uptick in Tory turnout and you're done. Your own voters evidently aren't coming out so if they can get theirs to then there you go.
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That’s just not going to happen in a place like erdington for a by-election though unfortunately. As posted further up it’s a traditional low turnout even on full national election days.
 
All by-elections have narratives and stories and conclusions, and parties take what they can from the results of the day.

It's an awful turnout. But there was perhaps no sense of urgency for voters. It's a fairly safe Labour constituency, with no real threat from other parties. Labour won handsomely.

TUSC finishing third, albeit with a few hundred votes so let's not go nuts, is a notable curiosity.
 
cybershot said:
That’s just not going to happen in a place like erdington for a by-election though unfortunately. As posted further up it’s a traditional low turnout even on full national election days.
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People did vote, people did pay attention, people did feel it was relevant. A lot more people didn't. The existence of the first group proves that political apathy isn't obligatory and low turnouts are an effect of the system, not a human feature.
 
Low turnouts are a feature of by elections where the result isn't in much doubt, for sure. Trying to draw any more lessons beyond that from the low turnout in this by-election is pretty pointless though.
 
At least depiffle's man came second, in FPTP that's what counts.

Given the weather, I'm slightly surprised that the turnout was as high as 26.92% for a byelection.
 
Paulette Hamilton (Lab) 9,413 (55.51%)
Robert Alden (C) 6,147 (36.25%)
Dave Nellist (TUSC) 360 (2.12%)
Jack Brookes (Reform) 293 (1.73%)
Siobhan Harper-Nunes (Green) 236 (1.39%)
Lee Dargue (LD) 173 (1.02%)
Michael Lutwyche (Ind) 109 (0.64%)
Mel Mbondiah (CPA) 79 (0.47%)
Thomas O’Rourke (Ind) 76 (0.45%)
SirNosDa The Good Knight (Loony) 49 (0.29%)
Clifton Holmes (Ind) 14 (0.08%)
David Bishop (BP Elvis) 8 (0.05%) :(
 
StoneRoad said:
At least depiffle's man came second, in FPTP that's what counts.

Given the weather, I'm slightly surprised that the turnout was as high as 26.92% for a byelection.
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Why oh why oh why don't they apply the same threshold rules for a union's industrial action ballot? Answer, because the benches in the House of Commons would be fucking empty, and we can't have that :mad:
 
killer b said:
27% is a totally normal by-election turnout, and 56% is a very comfortable win guys.
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Yes. I'm more than relieved at Alden's count tbh. I'm no fan of the labour candidate, but I'm glad Alden didn't win.
Very little canvassing that I saw from anyone.
 
platinumsage said:
Paulette Hamilton (Lab) 9,413 (55.51%)
Robert Alden (C) 6,147 (36.25%)
Dave Nellist (TUSC) 360 (2.12%)
Jack Brookes (Reform) 293 (1.73%)
Siobhan Harper-Nunes (Green) 236 (1.39%)
Lee Dargue (LD) 173 (1.02%)
Michael Lutwyche (Ind) 109 (0.64%)
Mel Mbondiah (CPA) 79 (0.47%)
Thomas O’Rourke (Ind) 76 (0.45%)
SirNosDa The Good Knight (Loony) 49 (0.29%)
Clifton Holmes (Ind) 14 (0.08%)
David Bishop (BP Elvis) 8 (0.05%) :(
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That slate doesn’t look very fashy for a recent by-election. Reform obvs, CPA the nutty unpleasant Christian lot I think? but where are the rest of them? Any of the independents? Shortage of campaign funds from Putin?
 
Dogsauce said:
That slate doesn’t look very fashy for a recent by-election. Reform obvs, CPA the nutty unpleasant Christian lot I think? but where are the rest of them? Any of the independents? Shortage of campaign funds from Putin?
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I would treat their absence with good grace rather than suspicion.
 
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