And next, Syria?

[mojo pixy]

Pedantic Note.

When European imperialism was in its pomp, the major imperialist states were called “powers”.

In the Cold War, the USA and the USSR seemed to be mightier than the “powers” had been, and were labelled “superpowers”.

A state that is the most powerful only in its region is certainly not a “superpower”.

The term “regional superpower” is a contradiction in terms. To be a “superpower” a state must be able to exert power all around the world, not simply in one region.

The State of Israel is a regional power.

Fair enough. I didn't invent the phrase, I've read it many times before I ever used it.

 

[zahir]

Karim Franceschi

FULL MILITARY ALERT in Kobani and Ain Issa! SNA فجر الحرية massing troops on Qere Qozaq line. Ceasefire is DEAD as Turkey rejects SDF's Suleyman Shah proposal. Heavy buildups east & west of Kobani. US forces are still in the city of Kobani.

 

[Flavour]

The turks are going to try and completely destroy Rojava as quickly as possible and that is strategically the smartest thing to do: take advantage of the chaos. I am sure they will succeed barring direct strikes against the SNA by the US and Israel, which I feel is relatively unlikely.

 

[zahir]

Interview with Yassin al-Haj Saleh

Yassin al-Haj Saleh: After Assad, Syria Must Free Itself from Sectarianism

Yassin al-Haj Saleh, born in 1961, is one of Syria’s foremost intellectuals and a long-standing dissident against the Assad regime. He spent sixteen years in prison for “political reasons,” including time in the maximum-security facility of Tadmur, also known as Palmyra. With the onset of the...

www.resetdoc.org

 

[ID47]

Troll off.

Go fuck yourself.

 

[zahir]

This doesn't look promising.

Aaron Zelin

Ahmad al-Shar’a (Jawlani) met with leaders in the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army. Even wore matching shirts

 

[brogdale]

Yet more extraordinary reporting from C4's Paraic O'Brien on Assad's mass graves:

True scale of Assad’s slaughter revealed at Syrian mass grave

 

[Gramsci]

At this point Israel is the absolute regional superpower so for anything to succeed in Syria right now it'll need Israel to be basically OK with it. More so IMO than Turkey, because though Turkey has the heft of NATO membership, that also comes with the burden of having to listen to the gang.

On the other hand Israel has its own massive internal problems and of course right at the moment nearly all policy is based on keeping Netanyahu out of jail. I do think beyond what it calls self-defence, Israel won't want anything to do in public with Syria. Under tables, and in the Private Sector, who knows.

I don't think one can reduce genocide in Gaza to just keeping Netanyahu out of jail.

I wasn't going to go on about Israel. But not going to let that pass.

 

[Gramsci]

On Israel

Israel occupying Golan heights is part and parcel of its occupation of West Bank and other Arab lands.

Israeli government agreeing to increase settlement building and occupy more Syrian land is consistent with Zionist political project. By an Israeli government of ideological Zionists. Its not all about corrupt Netanyahu. These people in the government really believe in the Zionist project. That is a fact. And they are elected. Taking land off Arabs and using it for settlement of Jews is part of that project. Whether one agrees with it or not.

One may or may not support this. But that is what is happening in Golan heights.

And if I was a Syrian who still lived there Id be a bit concerned about my future.

If Netanyahu ever goes would a future Israel hand back the Golan Heights?

I don't think so. Unless forced to by international pressure.

Its not all about Netanyahu

Its about a political project that's now being going on since 48.

 

[zahir]

The views of Kurdish and Arab residents of north east Syria

‘A new chapter’: Anxiety and optimism in northeastern Syria

The fall of the Assad regime, celebrated by massive crowds in public squares across Syria on Friday, was no less meaningful for those living in parts of the country’s northeast controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). For Kurds, who make up a large percentage of the area, the end of a

syriadirect.org

The fall of the Assad regime, celebrated by massive crowds in public squares across Syria on Friday, was no less meaningful for those living in parts of the country’s northeast controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). For Kurds, who make up a large percentage of the area, the end of a regime responsible for decades of Arabization policies and suppression of Kurdish language and culture was reason to celebrate. But relief at ousted President Bashar al-Assad’s fall and the promise of a new Syria is tempered by uncertainty, as SDF-held territories face the possibility of further incursions by Turkish-backed opposition forces.

 

[mojo pixy]

Its about a political project that's now being going on since 48.

Since long before that.

I anticipate with some trepidation a thread on zionism, where this discussion will be more relevant.

 

[Gramsci]

Since long before that.

I anticipate with some trepidation a thread on zionism, where this discussion will be more relevant.

This is for the Gaza thread really.

I'm talking about the modern version of Zionism - Labour Zionism that was major force in early years of Israel and later rise of Revisionist Zionism ( Likud) which had been minor but important strain of Zionism

Now more recently rise of settler movement and more religious based Zionism,

 

[CNT36]

Interview with Yassin al-Haj Saleh

Yassin al-Haj Saleh: After Assad, Syria Must Free Itself from Sectarianism

Yassin al-Haj Saleh, born in 1961, is one of Syria’s foremost intellectuals and a long-standing dissident against the Assad regime. He spent sixteen years in prison for “political reasons,” including time in the maximum-security facility of Tadmur, also known as Palmyra. With the onset of the...

www.resetdoc.org

Thanks for posting this. Very good interview.

 

[mojo pixy]

This is for the Gaza thread really.

I'm talking about the modern version of Zionism - Labour Zionism that was major force in early years of Israel and later rise of Revisionist Zionism ( Likud) which had been minor but important strain of Zionism

Now more recently rise of settler movement and more religious based Zionism,

Slice it up however you want, every cultural group, every 'nation' of people has its stories it tells itself about itself. Its reason to exist, its purpose, its meaning beyond a habitable patch of dirt as good as any other. Modern Israel has one, it's called zionism.

On topic, Syria needs to find one its people can believe in, and quickly.

 

[zahir]

Interview with PYD co-chair Gherib Hasso

Interview: “The question lies in how much the HTS leaders are open for democracy” – Gherib Hasso, Democratic Union Party co-chair – Rojava Information Center

rojavainformationcenter.org

You have relations with other political parties within Syria, outside of the North and East Syria Region. Do you see much acceptance or approval of your perspectives at the moment?

We were in contact with some parties inside Syria, in Damascus and Aleppo, as well as with individuals, politicians, intellectuals, in addition to all parties in NES – we have a strong relations with them. We were holding meetings and many would join us. We also have relations with Syrian parties and individuals that are active outside of Syria, for example in Egypt and Europe. There were many meetings that aimed to find a solution for the Syrian crisis that would be in accordance with democratic constitution and decentralized system. We agreed on many terms. The question lies, however, in how much the HTS leaders are open for democracy. This will become apparent when we hold meetings with them.

HTS has declared they will protect the rights of minorities and preserve Syria’s diversity, rejecting global jihad in favour of a national agenda. What do you make of this?

They have to. They have to make change. There is no use in demonstrating power and threatening. They have to change. There are alternatives. The democratic project is certainly the best alternative. HTS now controls large territories. They control Damascus. They have to soften their language. If they would not, the international community would turn against them. They are already on the terror list. Just talk is also not enough. They need to have a change in practice and grant all peoples their rights so that everyone takes their role in this political process. But if they only talk and in practice they don’t offer any change, then it is dangerous. Syria’s people have had enough of fooling, oppression and war tactics. They want real action.

Any solution must offer relief to the people who suffered years of war. The relief will come from trust; from peace and stability. The solution must relieve all segments of society, and this is based on giving people free will. And here, the role of women is really important. There are women who got educated and gained knowledge, capabilities and a democratic mentality. Through these years of war, there were many women who rose up. They can have a leading role – if they are not prevented from doing so and closed within their homes.

 

[Gramsci]

Slice it up however you want, every cultural group, every 'nation' of people has its stories it tells itself about itself. Its reason to exist, its purpose, its meaning beyond a habitable patch of dirt as good as any other. Modern Israel has one, it's called zionism.

On topic, Syria needs to find one its people can believe in, and quickly.

In that case can we agree that Israel should get out of Golan heights and let Syrian people decide their future

As whatever one thinks of Israel if we are to get on topic can there be agreement on this

 

[zahir]

From a long thread by Charles Lister

Since the HTS-led offensive on Aleppo began in late-Nov, Turkey's [separate] SNA coalition launched an offensive on SDF-linked territory, capturing Tel Rifat.

As they approached Manbij, the US all but ordered them to give it up in return for a ceasefire.

That ceasefire has been very rocky, and it's 2nd iteration showed signs of collapse today, with threats of SNA assault on Kobani.

The loss of the symbolic town of Kobani would be an immense blow to the PYD-led Kurdish movement in northern Syria.

For now -- and since Russia & Assad forces left the area -- US troops have been patrolling in/around the Kobani countryside, while US diplomacy has sought to deter Turkey from green-lighting a military offensive. It's proving very challenging.

In recent days, the SDF has also lost Sunni Arab forces in Deir ez Zour & faced major protests against its rule in Raqqa & Hasakeh.

In response, the SDF has allowed the green revolutionary flag to be flown from public buildings throughout its territory.

If US-Turkey diplomacy fails & the SDF faces a concerted offensive, the SDF's days will be numbered -- & the US will need to consider withdrawing from Syria.

Today, Turkey's line is: "you leave, we can take over" the northeast & the counter-ISIS fight.

Beyond ISIS's clear resurgence this year, NE Syria is home to ~9,500 ISIS militants in prisons & ~42,000 associated women/children in the al-Hol & Roj camps.

= ISIS's "army in waiting" & potential "next generation," per CENTCOM's General Kurilla.

Hope is not all lost -- the US still has room for a major deal with Turkey, but make no mistake, further big SDF concessions will be necessary & Ankara will need big carrots too (F35/16s, YPG removal from border, HTS recognition & end of Syria sanctions)

 

[zahir]

Interview with Syrian human rights lawyer Anwar al-Bunni

"We will continue until they've all been held accountable." | Antidote Zine

We fought Assad and his regime—and we'll keep fighting as long as it takes, until Syria has become a democracy with respect for human rights. We will n ...

antidotezine.com

WOZ: In your opinion, what should the transition process look like?

AB: The UN should definitely be part of it. Above all, every faction of the Syrian population should be represented: former regime members, the opposition, civil society. A new government should be formed by this temporary council, that represents all Syrians and not just one side. In 2015, the UN Security Council unanimously adopted a resolution sketching out a path for political transition; now it must be implemented. One aspect would be new elections under the auspices of the UN; Syria also needs a new constitution. The whole process could take five years. Transitional justice is a very important issue.

WOZ: That term describes the process of investigating crimes of the past in order to support the transition from dictatorship to democracy, and to achieve long-term reconciliation.

AB: It cannot be that the new rulers alone decide what accountability for criminals looks like. All must be held to account—not just the losing side. This goes for militia leader Abu Muhammad al-Jolani as well if he has committed crimes.

WOZ: The now-emerging discussions about the best future for Syria risk conflicts between those who left the country and those who stayed. Years ago, you co-wrote a new constitution for a time after Assad. How is the opposition-in-exile involving itself in the transition process?

AB: The transition has to be modeled according to international standards, and not Sharia law like that established by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) during its rule in Idlib. Or do the rebels just want to govern using the old constitution? That one is done now. At any rate, my compatriots will be back in Syria soon enough, and will fight for the implementation of transitional justice and much more. This is only the beginning; the military struggle is over and now comes the peaceful one for democracy. We fought Assad and his regime—and we’ll keep fighting as long as it takes, until Syria has become a democracy with respect for human rights. We will not replace one dictatorship with another. Syrians will never accept that.

 

[mojo pixy]

The now-emerging discussions about the best future for Syria risk conflicts between those who left the country and those who stayed.

This is an interesting point I honestly hadn't considered before. I wonder if people who left since 2011 might find themselves looked down on by people who stayed and suffered? And I wonder to what, if any, extent there's a class element to that (for example if leaving required resources that not everyone had access to)?

 

[Flavour]

That's certainly an issue with Ukrainian refugees in Europe, many of whom (in the first wave) were middle class and mobile. Freelance psychiatrists, full remote marketing managers, people like that. I've met some. Then there were 2nd and 3rd waves of people who arrived from the East of the country who only came once their cities had been destroyed and occupied (notably Mariupol, Melitpol and the southern part of Kherson Oblast) and there is already a class tension between these refugees and the "first wavers" who are generally richer. I imagine there are similar tensions not only between the Syrian refugees and the ones who stayed in the country, but also between different groups of Syrian refugees, too

 

[zahir]

Report on life in Idlib under the rule of HTS

Cafes Can’t Play Music, but the Water Taps Work: Life Under Syria’s Rebels

The Islamists who now lead Syria have ruled the city of Idlib for years. Residents say they imposed some strict laws, but also heeded some complaints and improved public services.

www.nytimes.com

Archived version: https://archive.ph/zoikU

 

[Pickman's model]

This is an interesting point I honestly hadn't considered before. I wonder if people who left since 2011 might find themselves looked down on by people who stayed and suffered? And I wonder to what, if any, extent there's a class element to that (for example if leaving required resources that not everyone had access to)?

depends how far they went, i suppose, to lebanon or to london

 

[zahir]

Another view of life in Idlib, written earlier this year.

https://aljumhuriya.net/en/2024/03/29/al-julanis-crisis-of-survival/

Critiques of al-Julani’s leadership style were common among several former HTS leaders, who observed his inclination to monopolize significant decisions, his systematic sidelining of the formal Shura Councils, his preference for closed-door meetings and verbal agreements that could easily be reversed, his penchant for public exhibition, and his outright disdain for any real partners.

Concerning human rights abuses perpetrated by the General Security Apparatus, the nature of the abuses varied with the prisoners’ backgrounds. Initially, when HTS used to present itself as a jihadist organization linked to al-Qaeda, its security forces targeted civilian or secular activists and remnants of the Syrian Free Army factions, which HTS had dismantled. These detainees occasionally received media attention due to their involvement in a revolutionary project with advocacy, connections, and legitimacy. However, as HTS shifted focus towards detaining ISIS affiliates, extremists, and controlling the influx of jihadist fighters, the majority of those in its prisons lacked external support. Appeals for their release or safety were confined to their immediate circles and some human rights groups that continued to document abuses, regardless of the detainees’ alleged offenses. Less than a year ago, HTS targeted members of the Islamic Hizb ut-Tahrir (known for its radical ideology but peaceful methods), which has leading to ongoing protests by the detainees’ female relatives and brought the issue of “prisoners of conscience” to the forefront of public discourse.

 

[zahir]

Meghan Bodette

The old Syrian government made about 120,000 Kurds stateless.

If Turkey uses the transition to a new Syrian government to invade all the territories that it claims the right to intervene in, many times that number will be exiled from Syria forever.

It wouldn’t be historically unusual for a new state to be founded on ethnic cleansing. But it would be an irrevocable stain on anything that calls itself a “revolution” if the first major event of the new regime is the repetition at scale of a signature old regime atrocity.

 

[zahir]

Latakia after Assad

The Fall of ‘Mr. President’s Province’

Latakia, long Assad’s heartland, is grappling with the prospect of a new era

newlinesmag.com

Politically, Latakia has a long history of civil and leftist movements that championed change and progress. However, these forces are not currently strong enough to resist the de facto power of HTS, which has managed to gain relative goodwill among the population by providing services and maintaining order. This strategy appears to be setting the stage for the next political phase. Speculation is growing that HTS may dissolve its military wing, transform into a political party, and integrate its forces into a restructured national army, replacing the military apparatus of the former regime.

 

[zahir]

Charles Lister

NEW -- SDF leader Mazloum Abdi proposes Kobani be demilitarized & U.S. troops take charge of a "redistribution" of forces elsewhere.

That's a huge potential concession from the SDF -- make or break time now.

Mazloum Abdi

To Confirm our steadfast commitment to achieving a comprehensive ceasefire throughout Syria, we announce our readiness to propose the establishment of a demilitarized zone in Kobani, with the redeployment of security forces under the U.S. supervision and presence. This initiative is to address Turkish security concerns and ensure permanent stability in the region.

 

[zahir]

Proposal for US sanctions if Turkey doesn't call off the SNA.

https://thehill.com/policy/international/5044667-van-hollen-graham-sanctions-turkey-ceasefire-syria/

The senators said they are prepared to introduce sanctions legislation this week against Turkey if Ankara does not immediately accept terms for a sustained ceasefire and demilitarized zone.

“While Turkey has some legitimate security concerns that can be addressed, these developments are undermining regional security, and the United States cannot sit idly by,” the senators wrote.

The sanctions Van Hollen and Graham propose mirror legislation introduced in 2019 that, at the time, helped move Turkey and Turkish-backed forces into a ceasefire with the Kurds.

This includes sanctions against senior Turkish officials, including Erdoğan; key Turkish banks; military transactions; and energy sector activities in support of the Turkish Armed Forces. It would also require the U.S. Treasury to move forward with delayed sanctions under federal law over Turkey’s decision to obtain the S-400 Russian missile defense system. And it would prohibit U.S. military assistance to Turkey, bar Erdoğan and Turkish leadership from visiting the United States, and require reports on the net worth and assets of Erdoğan amid concerns of corruption.

 

[zahir]

Meghan Bodette

The SDF offers an internationally supervised demilitarized zone in Kobane. If Turkey’s actual concern is the small number of SDF forces in the region, they have no reason not to accept. If they don’t accept this, it’s clear their real concern is Kurdish existence / self-rule.

Judging by Turkey’s track record in Efrin and Serekaniye — where no threats to Turkey were recorded before Turkish operations began, and where even Kurdish parties openly backed by Ankara are marginalized today — their problem is Kurdish existence and self-rule.

But total war in Rojava will have costs for Turkey, and there’s no off-ramp from total war in Rojava if they go for Kobane. Perhaps they don’t want twenty more years of insurgency. Time will tell.

 

[zahir]

Report from Kobani

Kobani Under Siege: Water, Power, and Supplies Cut Off Amid Turkish-Backed Assault

By Kardo Roj KOBANI, Syria (North Press) – For more than a week, the city of Kobani in northern Syria has faced a complete blackout of electricity

npasyria.com

 

[zahir]

In other news today the EU gives Turkey another billion euros.

Ursula von der Leyen

The relationship is important.
Our economic relationship is growing stronger every year.
And Türkiye remain a key partner on migration.
An extra €1 billion for 2024 is on its way to support Türkiye’s efforts to host Syrian refugees.