And next, Syria?

[CrabbedOne]

...
Owing to the purges, Turkey now faces an acute fighter pilot shortage, with the number of F-16 pilots dropping from a healthy (by Western standards) 1.25:1 pilot-to-cockpit ratio to a paltry 0.8:1 following the discharges. A 1.25:1 ratio is the accepted norm for sustainment in numerous air forces.

A large number of officers from various branches of the Turkish armed forces were present at Akinci air base on the night of the coup attempt. Akinci is home to the Turkish Air Force’s 11th fighter wing and three F-16 squadrons. At least one of the Akinci squadrons was involved in the coup attempt, alongside other elements of the Turkish Air Force based at different air bases around the country. To re-balance the crew ratio to an operationally feasible level, there are now plans to shutter five F-16 squadrons based at Akinci (141st, 142nd, and 143rd) and at Bandirma (161st and 162nd). The two bases affected will both be converted into reserve bases and their F-16s will disperse to other bases. This represents a drawdown from 240 inventoried F-16s to an estimated 140 useful jets — a 41 percent slash to their air defense and air interdiction capacity.
...

Turkish Air Force basically buggered post mutiny. Stein reckons it'll take a decade just to get the pilots back up to strength. That's just the jet jockeys I imagine things are worse with senior officers.

 

[CrabbedOne]

On Al Monitor Why Iran never counted on US-Russia agreement

Iranians sticking to the usual positions: the Great Satan simply cannot be trusted. Raid on Deir no accident, shows US once again in league with IS. Interestingly also hinting a hawkish Pentagon is at cross purposes with Kerry. That last bit is almost certainly on the money. Ash Carter was looking green about the gills at the thought of collaborating on AQ intelligence with the Russkis.

Reading between the lines the Iranians seem entirely unimpressed with all this cessation of hostilities business and more than a little irritated at all the endless Lavrov-Kerry jaw jaw. Which is understandable Russian statesmanlike posturing last time just gave the rebels space to regroup, resupply and then bloodily overrun hard won Iranian positions at Khan Touman and elsewhere. Mind, they also point out the South of Syria is rather quiet and that may well be down to careful Russian diplomacy with the Jordanians.

The Iranians seem pleased that the rebranded Syrian AQ affiliate JFS is being classed as a terrorist group by the US in these talks but it's perhaps telling that that they thought that designation was even in play.

Incidentally I heard there was a British drone coordinating at Deir with NZ and Aussie air frames so I'm a little surprised they are not having a go at the Little Satan as well. The extra complexities of the US managing allies involvement and cockups often go hand in hand.

 

[CrabbedOne]

In Al Monitor Turkey seeks more military cooperation with US in Syria

...
The United States, however, remains cool toward the idea of such a zone. Military analysts say Turkey cannot secure such a zone on its own. Nihat Ali Ozcan of the Ankara-based Economic Policy Research Foundation told Bloomberg that Erdogan’s vision would “require deployment of thousands of Turkish soldiers in Syria for several years.”

This is something that Ankara is neither prepared for nor capable of doing. Turkey can’t move toward al-Bab without US support either, according to retired Brig. Gen Naim Baburoglu.

“This is why it requested US forces in al-Rai,” he told Al Monitor. “The operation for al-Bab is fraught with risks. It will most likely have a high cost in lives. IS will resist with heavy artillery, including with those it brought from Jarablus before Turkish forces and the FSA took back the town,” Baburoglu said.

He added that the FSA — “which is nothing without Turkey’s support” — could not be relied on as a viable force against IS in al-Bab. Reminded that the US-supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), comprised mostly of YPG fighters, has also expressed its determination to capture al-Bab before Turkish forces and the FSA get there, Baburoglu said he did not believe the United States was keen to see the YPG in al-Bab.

“The US is happy so far about Turkey’s military operation in Syria. It has done nothing to harm its interests. The chances of a confrontation between the YPG and the Turkish military has also been significantly diminished,” Baburoglu said. He added that another reason why Turkey wants US forces to be embedded with its own forces in Syria is to prevent attacks by the YPG against the Turkish military.

...

Oh dear, heavily bearded FSA elements hate the "Crusaders" but the Turks appear pretty keen on US involvement.

I recall the Saudis and Turks offered to put in SF on the ground last winter but only if US troops led the way.

Ankara does not appear willing to resource this offensive sufficiently to achieve its ambitions. I read a statement earlier on that the Turks weren't going to commit more troops. One of the Idlib rebel groups involved withdrew as well. Perhaps they hoping for a bigger joint operation that'll finally draw in the US. The Turks are also angling for involvement in the operation to take Mosul which would sort of fit together.

If the TSK committed to Syria they could probably be in Raqqa in a month but then what? Interesting to consider that Erdogan may be as shy of grabbing the Syrian tar baby as Obama. Turkish voters are just as adverse to taking on such a burden as Americans. Nobody wants to end up owning Syria the way the US did Iraq for a decade. That includes the Russians and Iranians whose commitment is tiny in comparison to that trillion dollar occupation.

 

[kebabking]

...Incidentally I heard there was a British drone coordinating at Deir with NZ and Aussie air frames so I'm a little surprised they are not having a go at the Little Satan as well. The extra complexities of the US managing allies involvement and cockups often go hand in hand.

what i've seen suggests that it was 2 US A-10's and 2 Danish F-16's doing the kinetic work with ISTAR provided by an RAF MQ-9 Reaper, with an Aussie Tanker in attendance and an Aussie AWACS doing the command and control and deconfliction.

Syrian Army unit provides its position to Syrian HQ, Syrian HQ gives it to Russians, Russians give it to the Russians at the joint deconfliction centre, they pass it to the Americans at the joint deconfliction centre, who then pass it out. Chinese whispers with 500lb bombs in three different languages while at least one of the parties involved is being shot at. what could possibly go wrong...?

 

[irf520]

You do have to ask yourself what is our objective after half a decade of war in Syria? We'd like Assad to go but we fear a messy collapse of the sort that happened in Afghanistan and we want IS and their ilk gone.

Who's we? As far as objectives go, here's one suggestion, which seems to fit the facts:

"We should ask ourselves the question: how important is it to determine exactly how involved President Obama is Middle East decision-making? Whatever the nominal procedures for consultation and/or decision-making, there functionally is no one in charge. That is to say, it is the responsibility of the chief executive to identify issues requiring decision; to determine who will make the decisions and how, execute them, and review results; to compose differences among subordinate officials - one way or another; and to force revision of failed policies. Obama does none of these things. So, inner contradictions, crossed wires, organizational rivalries, half-measures, and a permissive attitude toward "allies' continues.

In this mess, we still can discern American priorities on which there seems to exist some tacit consensus.

1. The paramount objective is to thwart Russia's efforts to exercise influence and to establish its position in Syria.

2. Get rid of Assad We appear to have committed ourselves to the Israelis, the Turks, and the Saudis on this. their wish is our command.

3. Wear down and slowly fragment ISIS. Success on this score can cover failure on all others in domestic opinion.

4. Ensure a permanent American physical presence in Iraq, i.e. achieve what we failed to achieve in 2008.

5. Facilitate a de facto partition of Iraq with bits of Syria attached to the Iraqi bits. Hold this out as the lure for the Kurds to act as our infantry.

5. Facilitate some kind of Sunni entity in Anbar and eastern Syria. How can we prevent it being destabilized by attacks from ISIS remnants? How can we prevent it falling under the sway of al-Qaeda? Good subjects for the Obama Foundation's first major study project.

6. al-Nusra in Syria proper? That's Brennan's playground and chasse garde. Hope that the Turks can "domestic" al-Nusra. Incentive? Obscure - perhaps a threatened trade sanction on United States' importation of baklava."

From here:
“US Special Forces sabotage White House policy gone disastrously wrong with covert ops in Syria” - TTG

I don't think they (the people running US foreign policy) do want IS gone. They regard IS and Al Qaeda as tools which can be useful for some purposes.

 

[CrabbedOne]

Who's we? As far as objectives go, here's one suggestion, which seems to fit the facts:

"We should ask ourselves the question: how important is it to determine exactly how involved President Obama is Middle East decision-making? Whatever the nominal procedures for consultation and/or decision-making, there functionally is no one in charge. That is to say, it is the responsibility of the chief executive to identify issues requiring decision; to determine who will make the decisions and how, execute them, and review results; to compose differences among subordinate officials - one way or another; and to force revision of failed policies. Obama does none of these things. So, inner contradictions, crossed wires, organizational rivalries, half-measures, and a permissive attitude toward "allies' continues.

In this mess, we still can discern American priorities on which there seems to exist some tacit consensus.

1. The paramount objective is to thwart Russia's efforts to exercise influence and to establish its position in Syria.

2. Get rid of Assad We appear to have committed ourselves to the Israelis, the Turks, and the Saudis on this. their wish is our command.

3. Wear down and slowly fragment ISIS. Success on this score can cover failure on all others in domestic opinion.

4. Ensure a permanent American physical presence in Iraq, i.e. achieve what we failed to achieve in 2008.

5. Facilitate a de facto partition of Iraq with bits of Syria attached to the Iraqi bits. Hold this out as the lure for the Kurds to act as our infantry.

5. Facilitate some kind of Sunni entity in Anbar and eastern Syria. How can we prevent it being destabilized by attacks from ISIS remnants? How can we prevent it falling under the sway of al-Qaeda? Good subjects for the Obama Foundation's first major study project.

6. al-Nusra in Syria proper? That's Brennan's playground and chasse garde. Hope that the Turks can "domestic" al-Nusra. Incentive? Obscure - perhaps a threatened trade sanction on United States' importation of baklava."

From here:
“US Special Forces sabotage White House policy gone disastrously wrong with covert ops in Syria” - TTG

I don't think they (the people running US foreign policy) do want IS gone. They regard IS and Al Qaeda as tools which can be useful for some purposes.

We is the Americans. The Brits unlike the French mostly do what they are told to or think they might be told to as is painfully evident in the Chilcot report.

On #1, the US policy establishment is very divided on that. I do get the impression the primary objective is damage control. Though there is some disagreement over whether that's about terrorism, Iranian expansionism or the Kremlin trying to restart the USSR's ME strategy while DC desperately tries to pivot to Asia. The US executive appear unhealthily obsessed with pretty minor terrorist threats while in danger of stumbling into real problems with Russia. I'd give Obama a little credit for not underrating the high risks and low benefits in Syria.

On #2, the Israelis never liked the Arab Spring. They are divided but now basically neutral on Assad. The Turks appear to be wavering. The Saudis are just painfully obsessed on Iran cruising towards far more influence than they have. We appear to be drifting towards the Israeli position.

On #3 that's just damage control after messing up in Iraq and Syria. But it's not likely to stop a fallout of domestic terrorist acts. Hey, shit happens.

On #4 substantial Iraqi basing for the Pentagon is no longer feasible due to the rise of Iranian influence in Baghdad and 100K+ Great Satan hating Hashd on the ground. Shia Baghdad politically can barely stand the presence of a fat US brigade on the ground that's badly needed to take Mosul. Maybe a lily pad base in the KRG up that way.

On #5.1 US policy apart from the odd Bidenesque blip support the Sykes-Picot status quo not any sort Balkanisation or ethnic partition. That's almost a definition of catastrophic failure in US policy. The KRG has been repeatedly slapped down about this.

On #5.2 nope, supported by some Hill lobbyists but fantasy, see #5.1. DC's only bet is is the Anbaris etc accepting Shia Baghdad rule as the least worse deal and after IS it may be so. In Syria Kerry increasingly appears to have abandoned the Sunni revanche as a lost cause.

On #6, well that's what I was saying about layers of deniability.

And the link, well I posted that already and I don't entirely agree with TTG.

As with sophisticated states like Iran or Pakistan there's clearly some different opinions about foreign policy goals in the Byzantine bureaucracy of the US of A. The executive not really being able agree directions or (willing) to control underlings once unleashed is pretty much the normal way modern states do business.

 

[CrabbedOne]

On ISW Russian Airstrikes in Syria: Pre- and Post Cessation of Hostilities

...
Conclusion

The U.S. cannot accept a partnership with Russia in Syria so long as it continues to function as a belligerent actor in the conflict. Russia will continue to pursue its vital interests in Syria to include the preservation of the Assad regime and will continue to prioritize the defeat of the Syrian opposition, which remains the Syrian regime’s primary adversary. Russia and the regime will therefore pursue a strategy to remove mainstream opposition forces from the battlefield either through their submission, destruction, or the transformation of these groups into radical elements that can be rightfully targeted as terrorists. Russia is purposefully driving this radicalization through its deliberate targeting of civilian and humanitarian infrastructure. Russia will pursue an escalatory path in Syria that will constrain the U.S. and the international community into accepting certain levels of violence in exchange for a U.S.-Russia deal that will discourage Russia from escalating further. The U.S. must develop appropriate enforcement mechanisms to ensure both pro-regime forces and opposition groups adhere to the terms of any potential ceasefire in Syria and cannot rely upon Russia to ensure compliance with international law, let alone ceasefires.

Well that's a matter of degree. The US is certainly a belligerent actor in Syria just not to the extent of Russia.

The basic method is much as the Russians behaved in Chechnya. It's population centric in that you punitively hammer those in rebel areas in the traditional manner. A 40% civilian casualty rate is acceptable as it once was to us and they are fighting a on the cheap war with dumb bombs. The radicalisation is perhaps more the natural result of authoritarian CO(unter)IN(surgency) than intent but these days with much of the public gibbering in fear of Johnny Jihadi it does tend to kick the legs out from under international support for insurgents. There are mixed views on Chechnya as a model for COIN but the Kremlin trumpets it as a success.

You then get the FSB/GRU to aid the export of your remaining crop of angry beards to another field of Jihad. Well it's what most states with a similar infestation have done with the buggers for decades. Trouble is al Sham is much bigger than little Chechnya and a Holy Land for most Muslims.

Look at Iraq, all that cleverly enlightened FM 3-24 COIN just resulted in AQI going to earth and wasn't sustainable under post-occupation Baghdad. They were romping up to a nicely vulnerable Raqqa a few years later laden with abandoned Iraqi Army kit, rebadged as IS and rather distracting us from another regime change we'd taken a fancy to in Syria. Will blunt Russian ways work any better?

Of course the incident in Deir has the other side pointing the finger at assumed coalition mendacity while we have a hissy fit about them lighting up an aid convoy. The pompous utter certainty shown by all parties that such things may not be products of the fog of war is almost comic. Though probably not if you are a besieged Syrian in Deir or Aleppo.

 

[CrabbedOne]

In The Independent Government has no strategy, no plan and only ‘phantom’ allies in Syria, scathing Commons report reveals

...
A report by the House of Commons Defence Committee published on Wednesday says that there have been only 65 UK air raids in Syria during this period, compared to 550 in Iraq. Some 31 of these were in the first two months of the air campaign, since when the number has fallen to between three and seven air strikes a month

Drawing attention to the small number of British air attacks in Syria, Dr Julian Lewis, the chairman of the committee, asked in an interview with The Independent why “we had the great debate and vote on beginning military action in Syria when the number of air strikes there are so minute.” He added that, despite the committee’s best efforts, it had been unable to get the Government to identify the 70,000 armed moderates who are meant to be Britain’s local partners on the ground in Syria.

The muddled British political and military strategy in Syria was exemplified last Saturday when British aircraft took part in an air strike that mistakenly killed 62 Syrian army soldiers who were apparently fighting Isis near the besieged provincial capital of Deir Ezzor in eastern Syria. The British government has maintained that the Syrian army is not fighting Isis, but was seeking to crush moderate rebels opposed to Isis and the forces of President Bashar al-Assad.
...

The report is here. The British government won't even produce a list of identified moderate Syrian groups. Cameron did demure on that 70K figure. Lister produced a credible list but did point out these groups were focused on the regime but had little interest in fighting IS as HMG suggested they might.

After all the debating and talk of the wonders of Brimstone RAF operations in Syria are more about being seen to be supporting the US than a really meaningful commitment. In that we are rather like the Jordanians if a bit more eagerly subservient, having no obvious dog in the Syrian fight and not actually being bribed handsomely for our trouble. Coming rather too near to facilitating IS finally bloodily over running the very strategic Deir rather highlights the dilemma in Syria.

In Iraq it's a rather different story with the RAF occasionally playing its part in obliterating fleeing IS convoys. This is a bit tart about an essential difference:

...
17.Two years into the military campaign to counter the threat from DAESH, we are seeing the impact of the UK effort in the International Coalition. Whilst the military effort in Iraq is bearing fruit, that is much less certain in Syria. We believe this is partly due to the aspirations of the UK Government in respect of each country. The goals in Iraq are to remove territory from DAESH, to strengthen the Iraqi Government and to maintain Iraq as a unitary state. The goals in Syria are not only to defeat DAESH, but also to help bring into being a Government which will be neither authoritarian and repressive, on the one hand, nor Islamist and extreme, on the other. These goals cannot be accomplished by military means alone. We discuss the wider strategy and the importance of the political aspect of the fight to counter DAESH in the next section. (Paragraph 126)
...

You have to be realistic about the prospects for inclusive civil societies in Syria and Iraq. Development and stabilisation should be stressed over the simply military but far less transformational expectations need to be set. We are a rather deluded and distracted by transnational terrorism. That only takes will and a few networks of sympathisers. Taking Raqqa and Mosul (again) from IS will barely affect that. It would have been better if they had never fallen but we took our eyes off the ball in a very fragile Iraq as IS rose. The promised "civilian surge" never happened while we moved on to demanding Assad leave office. Salafi-Jihadi terrorism is a symptom we need to learn to live with. Strategy needs to be framed around longer term regional stability but let's face it it'll be made in Washington not London.

Shia Baghdad's rule has been describe as both authoritarian and absent. Stack it up against most ME states and the problems are more one of weakness and corruption than the usually misdiagnosed lack of inclusion were it scores rather well by regional standards. The young state first must guarantee protection from a rich pool of local predators before it can attract loyalty. It's not without promise but timescales for real progress should be thought of in generational terms. We should not expect far greater concessions to a restive Sunni Arab 17% from Shia ruled Baghdad than the Israelis have ever made to the Pals. We should not expect an Iraqi Mandela and sulkily blame the natives when none emerges.

There are some local examples but there is really no prospect for a centralised democracy in Syria. The only likely actors that might get to rule the place are all essentially authoritarian. The hard fighting parts of the revolt favour an intrusive state based on stern versions of Sharia. Much of liberated Idlib does not when scrutinised provide an encouraging foretaste. There's an article above on the depressingly corrupt and brutal court system. The folk who rule there are not really set on minority inclusion more expulsions, forced conversions and sectarian murder. The Baath rule by fear but with some grudging consent. Given strong allies and the lack of unity amongst the rebels they probably will continue to in parts of Syria. The PKK come closest to aspiring to representative government but in practice don't tolerate real opposition even from Kurds. Just holding the country together as a unitary state is a stretch goal in itself.

 

[CrabbedOne]

From The Atlantic Council Why Turkey Taking al-Bab is a Bad Idea

...
If ISIS were to leave al-Bab, or be defeated without a long term plan for a hold force and a mechanism to protect this force from regime bombardment, the operation risks deepening ethnic and political fissures in Syria. The first few days of Euphrates Shield are instructive in this regard. In the opening days of the Turkish-led offensive, Turkish troops and Arab and Turkmen militias clashed with SDF elements north of the Sajur River. The SDF was only able to move north because ISIS left before the Turkish intervention. The SDF-Turkish/militia clashes risked weakening the fight against ISIS elsewhere and embroiling Turkey in a conflict on a third front (The others being with ISIS in Syria and the PKK in Turkey) with the YPG. The Turkish offensive quickly retook territory north of the Sajur, before the United States brokered a cease fire.

Al-Bab presents many of the same risks, but on a larger scale. The SDF could capitalize on any major offensive for the city and try to push further west, a scenario that would raise the risk of Turkish strikes on the group. A small Arab/Turkmen force, left behind after combat operations, could also become a target for the Syrian regime, raising the possibility of Turkish-Syrian clashes, which have the potential to increase tensions with Russia, the guarantor of Assad’s security along with Iran. Further still, if Turkey seeks to augment what is a relatively small force with fighters from Idlib, regime forces could move on cities in Idlib left vulnerable from an exodus of fighters. And finally, if the Salafist rebel-group Ahrar al-Sham joins Euphrates Shield in a more overt and robustway, Russia could use their presence as an excuse to begin bombing these positions, a scenario that risks Turkish-Russian escalation.
..

Well that's a potential mess of problems for Ankrara. I think they are not daft and Turkish posturing is more about deterring a PKK move on al Bab.

Thinks the PKK isn't awfully keen on taking a pretty hostile Raqqa. Suggests US could be cultivating local allies there an in al Bab. I'm not sure if the SDF formula is holding up for these objectives. Recommends prioritising Mosul. Though I think Stein is underestimating the risks of rushing that much bigger operation with its own constellation of political problems. And there will be a tendency to hastiness as a Trump Presidency looms. The other area that occurs to me is collaborating with the Russians over regime held Deir which would squeeze Raqqa as Balanche suggested above. I doubt recent events have screwed that one up.

 

[CrabbedOne]

On TDS Raids set rebel areas of Syria's Aleppo ablaze as fighting rages

...
"It was the heaviest airstrikes for months inside Aleppo city," said Rami Abdul-Rahman, director of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights which monitors the conflict from Britain.

A senior official in the Levant Front, an Aleppo-based rebel group, told Reuters: "The Russians only want surrender. They have no other solution."

In another sign of the Syrian government's determination to seize and hold more territory, it pressed on with the evacuation of rebel fighters from the last opposition-held district of Homs, which would complete the government's recapture of the central city, now largely reduced to ruins.
...

Incendiaries, artillery basically everything but the kitchen sink. Assad anticipating the war will "drag on". Impatient Iranians saying any cessation just aids the Takfiri. Surrendering Homs rebels being bussed out to exile in Idlib by the regime.

 

[CrabbedOne]

On TDS Turkey won't take part in Raqqa operation if Kurdish militants do: Erdogan spox

The TSK getting up to their necks in Syria would probably be foolish politically but it is carrot to bangle before Obama. If I was them I'd keep the pressure on the Idlib Aleppo front, block any move on al Bab and leave Raqqa for the PKK to bleed over. Maybe that's the intent here anyway. At that point the PKK will be of dwindling use to the US.

 

[CrabbedOne]

On Political Violence @ A Glance Challenges to US-Russian Military Coordination in Syria

...
There are lessons from Libya

Challenges in NATO’s ability to share classified information such as air tasking orders and surveillance and reconnaissance images also emerged more recently during the alliance’s 2011 air campaign in Libya. The commander of NATO’s Allied Air Command, Gen. Mark Welsh, later described the Alliance’s inability to pass targeting and other intelligence among members as a “critical shortfall” of the mission.

But the greater challenge was communicating mission-tasking information to non-NATO members. The Swedish Air Force, for instance, could not plug into NATO’s communications and information systems — so relied on Danish bicycle messengers at Sigonella Naval Air Station in Italy to ferry USB drives with operational information (including mission orders) back and forth.

As these short vignettes demonstrate, “military coordination” can be difficult, even among friends. It is likely to be harder still among rivals and former enemies — a reality US and Russian officials will grapple with in the coming weeks and months as they seek to coordinate their activities in Syria.

And that's within NATO.

Pentagon chaps not at all happy at the idea of sitting in the same room as the Russkis and appalled at the thought of telling them where US personnel are.

 

[CrabbedOne]

On Lawfare Has Turkey Occupied Northern Syria?

...
It is highly unlikely Turkey took this pause prior to launching Operation Euphrates Shield. Most probably, Turkey dismisses the notion of being an occupying power and does not intend on doing any of the concomitant responsibilities that comes with their invasion of Syria. Further, it does not seem that Turkey or Syria are interested in engaging in an international armed conflict. But when it comes to occupation law none of this matters. Operation Euphrates Shield has triggered the law of armed conflict and Turkey now must choose to either fulfill their obligations as an occupying power or be in violation of international law.

Basically Ankara is legally obliged to care for the population their tanks have advanced in front of. It does strike me this could start being a significant burden if they start taking populous places like al Bab.

During the siege of Kobane the Turks I recall did cite international law as a reason they weren't about to stop the PKK having an Alamo moment at the hands of IS. Never gave them much pause during search and destroy missions in Iraq. They get far less lawyerly when in pursuit of the PKK.

 

[CrabbedOne]

On Jhadica Jabhat al-Nusra’s Rebranding in the Eyes of the Islamic State

...
Confusion

It is telling that the Islamic State has issued no more official response to Jabhat al-Nusra’s rebranding than Ahlam al-Nasr’s essay. The general silence speaks to the fact that the Islamic State no longer sees itself as part of the same movement as al-Qaida. It does not feel compelled to comment in an official capacity on an organization that it wrote off two years ago as “apostate.” ‘Adnani had the last word back in 2014 when he declared that the difference between the two groups was not superficial but one of “path” (manhaj). Zawahiri had “deviated” from the correct path, that of Osama bin Ladin, Abu Mus‘ab al-Zarqawi, and others. Thereafter, in the parlance of the Islamic State, Zawahiri’s al-Qaida has been “the Jews of jihad,” while Jabhat al-Nusra (now JFS) has been “Jawlani’s Apostate Front.”

What the Islamic State and its supporters have said about the rebranding is also telling—not because it is accurate (though it very well may be), but because it highlights a certain confusion in al-Qaida’s messaging. As all these detractors are keen to point out, Zawahiri persists in presenting the leader of the Taliban in caliphal terms, suggesting that all Muslims ought to rally around the standard of Mawlawi Haybat Allah Akhunzada. Most recently, for example, in May 2016, Zawahiri urged “the Muslim community to support the Islamic Emirate [i.e., the Taliban] and give it bay‘a”; and in August he said: “I call on my Muslim and mujahidin brothers in general, and those in Afghanistan in particular, to come together around this jihad-fighting emirate [i.e., the Taliban].” At the same time, Zawahiri has said he is not interested in who has power, and that he would be happy to see the mujahidin in Syria form their own government. How does this square with his calling on all Muslims (including those in Syria) to give bay‘a to the leader of the Taliban?

Something is not quite right here. It may not be that Zawahiri is a useless “old ball,” but it is hard to believe that, with his confused message, he is the guiding force that he is often made out to be.

While a good deal smarter than Bin Laden coherence has never been Dr Z's strength. He's a typical medic: a pragmatist who is all deceptive bed side manner. He offers the broader Syrian rebellion the sugar pill of forming its own fuzzily defined government. While swallowing that they are still expected to be looking to the righteous Afghan Taliban for leadership and inspiration. The stealthy shadow of the Caliphate to come and not so different than that of IS.

 

[CrabbedOne]

On CMEC Why Dance with Russia?

...
One year into the Syrian intervention, Russia has undeniably received a good return on its relatively modest investment. Moscow has gained diplomatic leverage (which the United States has done little to counter),Russian arms sales have dramatically risen, and the tempo of senior visitors to Moscow from the Gulf monarchies, Israel, and elsewhere has increased, even as relations with Iran and Iraq have deepened.

But over the longer term, there are significant limits to Russian aspirations to regional leadership and geopolitical influence. The Russian economy, heavily dependent upon hydrocarbon exports, has been mired in recession for six consecutive quarters; it’s aging blue-water navy is a legacy of the Soviet era and continues to decline in size; and its unconditional support for the Assad regime’s indiscriminate violence against Syrian civilians is deeply unpopular among the region’s Sunni majority. While President Bashar al-Assad has been protected from military defeat, it’s not apparent that Moscow has clearer answers to resolving the Syrian civil war than Washington does.
...

And the average income of Russians is slipping behind that of the Chinese. But then a faux return to the imperial grandiosity of Soviet days might be what the average Russian neo-serf is willing to drink a cheaper brand of aftershave for. The Russians have grabbed the Syrian tar baby making US involvement something more than a risk free vanity project. Now it's properly viewed as a geopolitical question and it seems us taking them seriously once more is a major objective. They are no longer to be sniffly dismissed as a Third World country with ICBMs.

And America having past though the unipolar moment on the way to Baghdad is all been there, done that. Even the Pentagon is pissed off with shitty little wars in dusty places and nation building. Been at it for a quarter century in Iraq since Desert Storm and it's still a crumbling pissoir crawling with Uncle Sam haters. The reality is the US has very little real reason to be interested in Syria beyond damage limitation on the terrorism issue. And this was all a distraction when we should have been focused on taming a real threat: Russia.

The article has "promoting the free flow of oil, ensuring Israel’s security, non-proliferation, and managing what was then a terrorist irritant" as the US's traditional interests. I don't think that's changed much. IS perhaps was a marginal threat to energy security as it clearly had its eyes on creating a Salafist revolution in the KSA, always a long shot. While Syria burns Israel has actually been more secure than ever. Behind its high walls its remaining enemies distracted. Assad was never much of threat in terms of proliferation and unlike Saddam he never tied to take the Gulfies oil fieldlds. And I'm sorry but terrorism remains an irritant for the US if you look at it objectively and one that its difficult to suppress and easy to make worse by obsessively scratching at it. It's a bigger problem for Europeans but even this compares with endemic US gun violence that Septics brush off as part of their way of life. Just compare that to a shooting war with Russia of the Ost Front that many Poles fear is coming.

It's more like we are back in 50s with a much weaker Moscow once more competing for regional influence in its ME backyard and as before that centres on it's old relationship with Damascus. Israel appears to view the Russians being in Syria as having some upsides in containing Iran's influence there. Our interest in the Syrian revolt has really been an inshallah operation that likely goes nowhere but to other stages of civil war. Decapitate the Baathist state and pray something worse doesn't come sloping towards Damascus. Russia's is a blunt instrument restoration of a brutal despot to power which will probably have a messy conclusion at best. I tend to look at it regionally it's really the Turks with the Saudis behind them that cling to taking Assad's head the other neighbours look increasingly nervous about that.

 

[CrabbedOne]

In MEE Former al-Qaeda affiliate urges Syrian rebels to oppose Turkish invasion

Al-Qaeda's former affiliate in Syria has called on opposition groups not to aid Turkish forces in the north of the country, saying they are a front for a US occupation.

In a statement released on Friday, Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (JFS), formerly known as the Nusra Front, said they would not be supporting the Turkey-led Euphrates Shield operation, despite statements of support from other rebel groups.

They cited US support for the Kurdish YPG, with whom Fateh al-Sham has clashed on numerous occasions, as proof of the US's intentions.

"We forbid fighting in the countryside of Aleppo province under any regional power or international coalition," read the statement, which makes no explicit reference to Turkey, but refers to the Euphrates Shield operation in the header.

"This includes aiding or co-ordinating with them. The necessary legitimate conditions for aiding [in this battle] do not exist."
...

AQ Syria likes to keep a bit of distance from regional players. In contrast to their chums in Ahar al Sham who are now saying it's OK to work with the Turks to fight IS or the PKK.

 

[teqniq]

Meanwhile Aleppo is being relentlessly bombed

 

[CrabbedOne]

In WaPo A ferocious assault on Aleppo suggests the U.S. may be wrong on Syria

Highlights that both the Russians and Americans may have overestimated their respective ability to steer allies in Syria anywhere at all. Given the peace process has mostly excluded everybody else while they flap lips at each other this is a bit of flaw.

It's been apparent from his statements and actions that Moscow's air power rather than giving the Russians leverage over Assad has actually reinforced his ambition to reconquer all of Syria. Anyone who recalls the Soviet experience in Syria would recognise he's his father's son in this unbending respect. Rationally you'd have thought he knows he needs them but Moscow has no replacement and only a weak relationship with a carefully divided SAA. The hints that the Russians might drop Assad are plainly BS as that just leads to regime contraction and apparent defeat for Putin. The reality is the Russians need Bashar for their Chechnya like plan in Syria to ever end in anything but defeat. They sincerely believe only brutal Baath rule can cage the terrorist demons the chaos in Syria has unleashed. The Iranians perhaps have more sway including a growing grip on Syrian sub-state actors but the Assad clan is their oldest ally. They appear reluctant to support Bashar in defending in all corners of Syria but will bleed to smashing the revolt in the commercial capital Aleppo as that is likely a tipping point. They see the Southern revolt collapsing into serial surrenders as a model. They want this done and already appeared to have had enough of Russian prevarication. That disastrous coalition airstrike up in Deir shattered any basis for Russia contain its allies. Both Assad and The Iranians suspected the Pentagon of going off reservation. The attack on the aid convey and subsequent move to extinguish the remaining pocket of revolt in Aleppo would be a typical hardball regime response. It's the way Damascus and Teheran wanted to go anyway.

On the other side the despite years of heavy covert support the US has only slight influence over a fragmented Northern revolt that irreconcilable radical Salafists and AQ itself are ascendent in. Assad could moan far more plausibly than the Israelis that he has "no partner for peace". These uncompromising beards are set on a Taliban like conquest of the Levant not provincial power sharing. The rebels increasingly smelling a US betrayal refuse to abandon AQ and their kindred to be slaughtered by US and Russian airpower. The Turks buzzing with paranoia about Langley having a hand in the recent mutiny are clearly following their own agenda in Syria. It's their military intelligence that is Langley's main interface with the revolt and they probably have much greater influence. What they want involves using a thin front of rebels to throw a spanner in the Syrian PKK's nation building and putting a shoulder behind the Northern revolt to keep pressure on the regime and its allies. The Syrian PKK meanwhile is even more reliant of US airpower than Assad is on Russian are barely a controllable junk yard dog leashed but straining towards al Bab. The Pentagon itself appeared to baulk at Kerry's plan to work with the Russkis against terrorist threats in Syria despite Presidential pressure to do so. Somehow that's just too out of kilter with the Pentagon world view.

 

[CrabbedOne]

Well quite.

 

[CrabbedOne]

On Reuters Syrian government makes Aleppo advance in major attack

...
Residents say air strikes on eastern Aleppo have been more intense than ever, using more powerful bombs. Rebel officials said heavy air strikes on Saturday hit at least four areas of the opposition-held east, and they believe the strikes are mostly being carried out by Russian warplanes. Video of the blast sites show huge craters several meters wide and deep.
...

Well that does not sound like the notorious barrel bomb.

The Russians have previously used BETAB-500 bombs in Syria. They are designed to shatter multilevel subterranean bunkers. Tunnel warfare in Aleppo has been intense; I'd anticipate the rebels have underground command centres and attack tunnels.

Handarat camp North of Aleppo taken. Talk of taking the pocket in ten days is ambitious unless there is a surrender.

 

[Casually Red]

Handarat was in rebel hands for years. The Palestinians who once lived there spearheaded the latest assault on it, as they did with all the unsuccessful attempts to liberate it. Huge victory for them in particular . Hopefully theyll manage to lay their hands on those moderate vermin who decapitated that little Palestinian boy for giggles during the summer.

. The rebels in Allepo city would appear to be fucked . That massacre of Syrian troops in DeZ seems to have sealed their fate . If it was the coalitions intent to impress upon the SAA the " drastic consequences " and " serious escalation " that Kerry was threatening them with if they didn't keep the ceasefire then it has backfired massively. The SAA have given a very direct answer to it. They're going all out now . And once Allepo has been finally liberated the writings on the wall from then on in .

 

[teqniq]

Third day of ‘horrific’ Aleppo air strikes kills dozens of civilians

 

[Casually Red]

The yanks Syria policy now lies in tatters . They've really been shown up as a complete bunch of wankers . What on earth were they thinking when they slaughtered those soldiers ?
They've proven themselves to be completely unable to even remotely separate their " moderate " proxies from
Al Qaeda fighters. As its basically an impossibility . Their moderate proxies are wholly ineffectual and wholly reliant on Al Qaeda simply to remain in the field . Theyre little more than weapons launderers, a necessary wall of seperation between the sponsors of this war on Syria and Al Qaeda proper . Kerry has been shown up as a complete idiot and not just in that regard .
The Russian airforce are going full Neeson on all the jihadis in Allepo now . They failed to separate themselves so now they can go into the meat grinder with the rest. Kerry's pleas are simply being ignored .

Hardly surprising after the contemptuous and arrogant behaviour of Samantha Power at the UN towards Vitaly Churkin after the DeZ massacre . Completely losing the run of herself and making a mockery of the very notion of diplomacy in her personalised posturing . She publicly boasted to the media that there was no point even bothering to listen to the Russian ambassador and then flounced off . Well now nobodys listening to the yanks in return and the proxies are being hammered outright .

Power grandstanding for the media outside the UNSC meeting she didn't even bother attending . Preferring to remain outside the door and contemptuously insult the ambassador inside rather than address the attack on the soldiers. A person completely incapable of doing her actual job . Whatever the fuck that is its neither professional nor diplomatic .



Churkins exasperated and resigned response to her bollocking about .


That's why this ceasefire has collapsed and is highly unlikely to ever be reinstated . Certainly not in Allepo .

On the ground the Syrians and their allies seem to be using the Russian tactics of attacking on multiple fronts, probing for weak spots while preventing the enemy from being able to adequately reinforce anywhere, because they've no idea where the next assault is coming from . And as a result the jihadi defensive lines have crumbled with amazing speed on a battlefront that's been largely static for years . The Palestinian victory at Handarat is just one example. Others areas have been retaken as well . Outright military victory in Allepo seems to be within Assads grasp now . Something that's long been thought impossible. Except by the Syrians .

The big jihadi assault failed . The diplomacy effort to buy them breathing space failed . The attempt to intimidate the Syrian army by bombing them failed . And now they'll well and truly fail by losing their grip on Syrias second city . Failures all of them .

 

[CrabbedOne]

On SST Flash! Washpost discovers that Syria War may be "winnable."

Col Lang's assessment.

I really doubt this will be quick the regime's capacity to waste a position of advantage is immense. I'd consider the last well dug in defence of Gaza or Lebanon in 06. This can end up being costly and the basic problem is limited capable manpower to hold ground even if it's been conquered by Russian ordnance.

 

[CrabbedOne]

In The Australian Vladimir Putin’s giant flamethrowers torch Aleppo

...
Pictures published earlier this month show what appears to be a TOS-1A targeting the outskirts of Aleppo. The TOS-1A fires rockets tipped with thermobaric warheads whose fuel creates a pressurised explosion, sucking in oxygen. Anyone within a 650ft radius can be burnt alive.

Taking cover or wearing body armour offers no protection against fuel-air explosives. One American source told The Sunday Times its use in civilian areas like eastern Aleppo would be a war crime, breaching the Geneva conventions.

A former US army artillery officer who served in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now a Republican foreign policy adviser on Capitol Hill, said: “If the Russians are using this weapon, it could constitute a war crime. The TOS-1A is a devastating and indiscriminate weapon. As a fuel-air weapons system, it is much more powerful than a conventional warhead, sucking out oxygen to create a vacuum.

“It literally sucks the life out of people, collapsing their lungs. It has no place being used in an urban area, never mind against civilians. This underlines why pursuing a peace treaty with Putin or Assad is naive folly.”

Fuel-air explosives were used by the Americans in the Vietnam War, when napalm did not prove effective enough. US aircraft also fired thermobaric warheads during the hunt for Osama bin Laden, to suck oxygen from the caves of Tora Bora, in Afghanistan.

The technology is a prize asset in the Russian arsenal. Just last week the country’s armed forces announced the TOS-1A’s range had been extended from 3.7 miles to 6 miles. "They are truly horrendous,” said Major Chris Hunter, a former British army explosives expert. “Sometimes the victims are not rendered unconscious by the blast. They can stay alive for minutes while they suffocate. Anyone near the ignition point will be obliterated. They are a poor man’s nuclear weapon.”
...

The TOS-1A was also used in Chechnya and in Iraq against IS as well.

 

[CrabbedOne]

On War Is Boring Turkish Tanks Take a Pounding in Syria

...
There are also tactical lessons for the Turkish army. The M-60 tanks at the spearhead of Ankara’s war effort pack intimidating firepower and have generally succeeded in securing their objectives. However, these tanks remain a product of another era, and remain vulnerable to deadly anti-tank missiles widely employed in Syria.

Whether the Turkish military will risk its Leopard 2s in an effort to mitigate losses — and whether those tanks would fare better against experienced missile teams armed with powerful missiles such as the Kornet — is far from clear.

The same could be said regarding the end game of the Turkish intervention in Syria.

Informative piece on the very big but somewhat aged Turkish tank fleet and other AFVs.

 

[westcoast1]

Handarat was in rebel hands for years. The Palestinians who once lived there spearheaded the latest assault on it, as they did with all the unsuccessful attempts to liberate it. Huge victory for them in particular . Hopefully theyll manage to lay their hands on those moderate vermin who decapitated that little Palestinian boy for giggles during the summer.

. The rebels in Allepo city would appear to be fucked . That massacre of Syrian troops in DeZ seems to have sealed their fate . If it was the coalitions intent to impress upon the SAA the " drastic consequences " and " serious escalation " that Kerry was threatening them with if they didn't keep the ceasefire then it has backfired massively. The SAA have given a very direct answer to it. They're going all out now . And once Allepo has been finally liberated the writings on the wall from then on in .

They lost control of it during the night. Early days.

 

[Casually Red]

They lost control of it during the night. Early days.

From what I've read they were aware of a massive jihadi counter offensive in the works and hadn't enough time to properly fortify it so withdrew rather than take serious casualties. The jihadis will get that treatment trying to keep the place . Bit by bit they'll be worn down . Under this type of siege the war of attrition will finish them soon enough .

 

[Doctor Carrot]

The yanks Syria policy now dictatortatters . They've really been shown up as a complete bunch of wankers . What on earth were they thinking when they slaughtered those soldiers ?
They've proven themselves to be completely unable to even remotely separate their " moderate " proxies from
Al Qaeda fighters. As its basically an impossibility . Their moderate proxies are wholly ineffectual and wholly reliant on Al Qaeda simply to remain in the field . Theyre little more than weapons launderers, a necessary wall of seperation between the sponsors of this war on Syria and Al Qaeda proper . Kerry has been shown up as a complete idiot and not just in that regard .
The Russian airforce are going full Neeson on all the jihadis in Allepo now . They failed to separate themselves so now they can go into the meat grinder with the rest. Kerry's pleas are simply being ignored .

Hardly surprising after the contemptuous and arrogant behaviour of Samantha Power at the UN towards Vitaly Churkin after the DeZ massacre . Completely losing the run of herself and making a mockery of the very notion of diplomacy in her personalised posturing . She publicly boasted to the media that there was no point even bothering to listen to the Russian ambassador and then flounced off . Well now nobodys listening to the yanks in return and the proxies are being hammered outright .

Power grandstanding for the media outside the UNSC meeting she didn't even bother attending . Preferring to remain outside the door and contemptuously insult the ambassador inside rather than address the attack on the soldiers. A person completely incapable of doing her actual job . Whatever the fuck that is its neither professional nor diplomatic .



Churkins exasperated and resigned response to her bollocking about .


That's why this ceasefire has collapsed and is highly unlikely to ever be reinstated . Certainly not in Allepo .

On the ground the Syrians and their allies seem to be using the Russian tactics of attacking on multiple fronts, probing for weak spots while preventing the enemy from being able to adequately reinforce anywhere, because they've no idea where the next assault is coming from . And as a result the jihadi defensive lines have crumbled with amazing speed on a battlefront that's been largely static for years . The Palestinian victory at Handarat is just one example. Others areas have been retaken as well . Outright military victory in Allepo seems to be within Assads grasp now . Something that's long been thought impossible. Except by the Syrians .

The big jihadi assault failed . The diplomacy effort to buy them breathing space failed . The attempt to intimidate the Syrian army by bombing them failed . And now they'll well and truly fail by losing their grip on Syrias second city . Failures all of them .

The yanks Syria policy now lies in tatters . They've really been shown up as a complete bunch of wankers . What on earth were they thinking when they slaughtered those soldiers ?
They've proven themselves to be completely unable to even remotely separate their " moderate " proxies from
Al Qaeda fighters. As its basically an impossibility . Their moderate proxies are wholly ineffectual and wholly reliant on Al Qaeda simply to remain in the field . Theyre little more than weapons launderers, a necessary wall of seperation between the sponsors of this war on Syria and Al Qaeda proper . Kerry has been shown up as a complete idiot and not just in that regard .
The Russian airforce are going full Neeson on all the jihadis in Allepo now . They failed to separate themselves so now they can go into the meat grinder with the rest. Kerry's pleas are simply being ignored .

Hardly surprising after the contemptuous and arrogant behaviour of Samantha Power at the UN towards Vitaly Churkin after the DeZ massacre . Completely losing the run of herself and making a mockery of the very notion of diplomacy in her personalised posturing . She publicly boasted to the media that there was no point even bothering to listen to the Russian ambassador and then flounced off . Well now nobodys listening to the yanks in return and the proxies are being hammered outright .

Power grandstanding for the media outside the UNSC meeting she didn't even bother attending . Preferring to remain outside the door and contemptuously insult the ambassador inside rather than address the attack on the soldiers. A person completely incapable of doing her actual job . Whatever the fuck that is its neither professional nor diplomatic .



Churkins exasperated and resigned response to her bollocking about .


That's why this ceasefire has collapsed and is highly unlikely to ever be reinstated . Certainly not in Allepo .

On the ground the Syrians and their allies seem to be using the Russian tactics of attacking on multiple fronts, probing for weak spots while preventing the enemy from being able to adequately reinforce anywhere, because they've no idea where the next assault is coming from . And as a result the jihadi defensive lines have crumbled with amazing speed on a battlefront that's been largely static for years . The Palestinian victory at Handarat is just one example. Others areas have been retaken as well . Outright military victory in Allepo seems to be within Assads grasp now . Something that's long been thought impossible. Except by the Syrians .

The big jihadi assault failed . The diplomacy effort to buy them breathing space failed . The attempt to intimidate the Syrian army by bombing them failed . And now they'll well and truly fail by losing their grip on Syrias second city . Failures all of them .

You are one of the most cynical and deluded shit cunts I've ever encountered on these boards. You practically creaming your pants about how the Russian air force is going 'full nelson' on Aleppo. Actually enjoying the fact hundreds of tthousands of people have no water. Yeah wonderful let's rejoice at an entire country being torn apart by murdering cunts playing politics and power with people's lives. There's no good outcome to this you fucking moron, Syria's over. It's not going to recover. That fact alone makes your cheer leading all the more nauseating.

 

[CrabbedOne]

On Oryx Blog No end in sight: Failed Tabqa offensive reveals underlying shortcomings of regime forces

...
And as such it happened to be that a small group of Islamic State fighters along with associated vehicles and just two tanks had completely reversed an offensive undertaken by thousands of men with dozens of tanks, artillery and air support. Not only did they manage to take back all the territory the Islamic State had lost during the regime's offensive, the fighters of the Islamic State even gained new territory and is now marching on the town of Ithiriya. Of course, it is unlikely that they will be capable of actually taking Ithiriya for now, but the mere fact that it is now being threatened shows the degree to which the once daring offensive has now backfired.

In an effort to defend the catastrophe of Tabqa, the regime and its supporters went to entirely new lengths to put the blame on anything but the military's incompetence. Some argued the offensive was nothing more than a probing attack, to see what the Islamic State's military response would be like. Russia was blamed for not providing the much-needed air support, although the extent to which it would be participating was already known to the regime before launching the offensive. The whole undertaking was said to be an idea of Russia, in which the regime was forced to take part. Others claimed weather conditions had supposedly prevented the SyAAF from striking the Islamic State, despite the fact that the weather was in favour of the regime during the entirety of offensive. Some even claimed the Islamic State's ''hundreds of VBIEDs'' simply proved too much for the forces taking part in the offensive, attributing the failure purely to the suicidal nature of the Islamic State's tactics. But worst of all, the various branches of the regime's military blamed each other for the failed offensive. Suqour al-Sahraa' blamed the SyAA and militias taking part in the offensive for not actually taking part in the offensive, while the SyAA and militias blamed Suqour al-Sahraa' for taking part in the offensive and then suddenly not taking part in the offensive anymore, leaving poorly trained troops to fight for themselves.

The catastrophic outcome of the regime's attempt at directly challenging the Islamic State's heartland must have not only amazed those following the offensive, but also the regime's military itself. Once thought to be amongst the most powerful armies of the Middle East, the biggest enemy of the Syrian Arab Army didn't prove to be Israel or Ba'athist Iraq, but the Syrian regime itself. The sectarianism, corruption and complete denial of reality so deeply embedded in its way of governing not only contributed to dragging Syria into an endless Civil War, but also completely debilitated the Syrian Armed Forces as an effective fighting force. In the past five years of conflict the regime's military has so far proven to be entirely incapable of adapting to the type of warfare necessary to operate in the Syrian Civil War. As the core issues of the Syrian Arab Republic have only worsened over the past five years, it appears unlikely that the Syrian Arab Army will ever manage to present itself as a properly functioning military as long as the Ba'ath Party remains in power.

The failure at Tabqa plunged the Syrian Arab Army into an all time low, not only because it was made painfully clear that President Bashar al-Assad's vision of bringing back 'Every Inch of Syria' under its control is currently a completely absurd notion, but also because it increased hostilities between the various forces participating in the offensive. With the regime's military proven to be an unreliable partner for Russia, and with Syria's role as a weapons depot and supply line for Hizbullah well secured for Iran and Hizbullah, it is not unlikely that the regime's inability to conquer and secure more territory will lead to increased calls and pressure to allow for self-governing of certain parts of Syria. In any case, the needless waste of manpower, equipment and perhaps most of all morale shines a poignant light on the fact that there's still no end in sight for Syria's devastating war.

Tail end of an excellent autopsy of the To Raqqa offensive.

A hugely over confident thrust intended to retake the Tabqa airbase that ended up in a humiliating flight before a small but competent IS force.
It points out numerous failings:

• Structural problems in the regime forces with them having become essentially fragmented with check point militias OK for defending Da Hood but not really suitable for projecting force
• Lousy communications between all these units
• Completely exposed flanks
• Failure of basic reconnaissance to detect an IS concentration prior to a counter attack
• Lack of regime intelligence infiltration of IS compared to the very compromised rebel units they often face
• Hesitation, allowing IS to regroup
• Redirection of forces to other areas operations
• Bashar's vision basic strategic stupidity. This offensive has his hand all over it in my opinion

I'd say this shows the regime forces as increasingly a mirror image of the fragmented rebels. A myriad of thuggish local militias with a few successful warlords also often reliant on foreigners to take ground. Successful offensives like the regime one at the start of this year on Aleppo tend to have Russian staff planning, IRGC/HA officers at the front herding cats with the SAA providing fire support and Russian air above. Rebel gains are often fronted by highly motivated radical Salafi, half of the rebel combatant dead are reported to be not Syrian, logistical support is often poured in across the border. Unfortunately that just makes for a bloody stalemate

With To Raqqa I suspect the regime's allies had no real enthusiasm for Bashar's objectives out way beyond useful Syria. .

The SAA probably always was overrated. Like classical Greeks IDF tend to speak highly of their enemies capabilities to burnish their own boastful martial image. It's been essentially a corrupt coup proofed set of Divisional commands since the 60s. The regime's organic adaptation to a guerrilla war has been to develop localised guerrilla militias that often resemble bandits. HA, a primarily defensive guerrilla force, has proved far more flexible at adapting to the small offensive battles in Syria. Well led, meritocratic, fanatical and notoriously quick learners. Actually the model in some ways for AQ in Syria and Yemen. The sticky fingered place men of the SAA officer corps just wasn't made of that stuff. And I'd say the above assessment is correct: the Baathist state is rotting from it's head as well.