And next, Syria?

[camouflage]

Oh look, he's found google. 5 years too late.

 

[Doctor Carrot]

Fair play, I stand corrected. Nonetheless the protests are possible because of the ceasefire. The ceasefire was brought about by the work done by Kerry and Lavrov, but would not have happened without Russias decisive intervention. The "opposition" had (as commanded by their backers) refused untill this point to even attend talks due to their war chant "Assad Must Go".

If you can't even get the basics of which fucking flag people fight under then you really shouldn't be on here. After all your cheerleading of the Russian and Syrian governments you had no fucking idea Assad's opposition have a different fucking flag. That fact alone explains everything. The people waving that flag you erroneously think is in support of Assad were waving that flag right at the start of the revolution against Assad. Assad sought to crush that revolution and you've done nothing but cheerlead it all the way, Russia sought to help that crushing of that revolution and you cheerlead for that too. Despite that they're still there still on the streets and you want them to thank Russia for that? Extraordinary... Just extraordinary.

 

[elbows]

The Russians are going, well some of them.

Putin orders most troops out of Syria - BBC News

President Putin orders Russian military to start withdrawing "main part" of forces in Syria, saying goals achieved

This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly. Please refresh the page for the fullest version.

 

[camouflage]

"will hopefully send a positive signal to all parties engaged in the conflict", signalled Putin.

 

[teqniq]

Jabhat al-Nusra Oversteps Mark with Idlib Crackdown | Middle East Institute

 

[teqniq]

The Russians are going, well some of them.

Putin orders most troops out of Syria - BBC News

This made me chuckle

 

[butchersapron]

Jabhat al-Nusra Oversteps Mark with Idlib Crackdown | Middle East Institute

Absolutely key - and the YPG/SDF are are not to be able to make good use of this rare opportunity. But, in terms of the revolution, these were the underlying antagonisms that they could never extinguish. Amazing couple of weeks.

 

[butchersapron]

More from lister today btw

Are we seeing a mini-civilian uprising v. Nusra in Marat al-Numan? Civilians stormed AQ prison, freeing 4 detainees

 

[teqniq]

More from lister today btw

I think he might be referring to this in the linked article above.

Most significantly, civilians have risen up in protest against the group in Maarat al-Numan, holding near-constant demonstrations there since Saturday night. By Monday, the 13th Division flag had been re-hoisted by women and children in the group’s former headquarters and a Jabhat al-Nusra prison had been stormed and set on fire by civilians, freeing detained 13th Division fighters.

 

[butchersapron]

He is - the nature of the withdrawal is what we need to establish.

 

[butchersapron]

The Russians are going, well some of them.

Putin orders most troops out of Syria - BBC News

Weird that, first sighting of a manpad and the're 'off' the very next day.

 

[teqniq]

Weird that, first sighting of a manpad and the're 'off' the very next day.

Are you referring to this? I saw the vid on Twitter and it wasn't clear whether or not it was missiles or AA fire (can't find the tweet now unfortunately). The article isn't sure either.

There were conflicting accounts on Saturday night whether the government plane was brought down by missiles or anti-aircraft guns.

The Syrian military source told the Reuters news agency that fighters targeted a warplane while it was landing in Hama province, bringing it down, and calling the attack a breach of the "cessation of hostilities" agreement.


Talk to Al Jazeera: 'No plan B for Syria', says UN envoy Staffan de Mistura


A rebel group operating in the area, Jaish al-Nasr, said it shot down the jet with anti-aircraft weapons. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, however, said rebels downed the plane with two heat-seeking missiles.

Syrian jet shot down by rebels ahead of peace talks

 

[butchersapron]

Are you referring to this? I saw the vid on Twitter and it wasn't clear whether or not it was missiles or AA fire (can't find the tweet now unfortunately). The article isn't sure either.

Either way, first hint that the door might be opened to stuff that can take down their air-force - i.e a shot across their bows - and we get this this rhetorical withdrawal. May be entirely unconnected, but i don't think so.

 

[Opera Buffa]

So we are thinking: having scared (off) NATO, by showing how strong the Russian military can be, they have to get out now before they get a bloody nose?

Also maybe they do not have the money or supplies to keep going at this rate for the next three years, and three after that, and so on?

 

[teqniq]

Here is the tweet, eventually

 

[IC3D]

Maybe for the Kurdistan thread but Erdogan has been conflating the PKK with the YPG for the suicide bombings and perhaps getting Nato onside for styming their advances lately under Russian aircover

 

[teqniq]

 

[teqniq]

So we are thinking: having scared (off) NATO, by showing how strong the Russian military can be, they have to get out now before they get a bloody nose?

Also maybe they do not have the money or supplies to keep going at this rate for the next three years, and three after that, and so on?

in the absence of anyone else better informed than me replying I can't really give you properly informed opinions about the questions you have raised tbh; though I think BA's thoughts on the downing of the Syrian airforce jet may have had more to do with their decision that I have really given though to. I suppose money and resources would be something that they've got to take into consideration. Also there is the strand of thought that the actions they have taken are meant to distract from events in Ukraine by putting pressure on the EU with the influx of refugees. Maybe they think in part that this has been successful so they don't need to devote any more resources there. It has to be also taken into consideration that the Russian government is not inexorably wedded to the idea that Assad must stay in power. There was an interview with a Russian professor Dr. Vitaly Naumkin that I posted quite some way upthread where he pretty much says this.

 

[camouflage]

Wow, just.. wow. I was curious what narrative would be adopted in the face of the Russian bulk-withdrawal. Not sure if disappointed at the cellotape and string construction or impressed by the colourful use of crayon.

 

[teqniq]

Why thank you [emoji3] but if you have another narrative please share it. Obviously mine is largely based on speculation and I'm sure other plausible scenarios could be constructed lol.

 

[Doctor Carrot]

the cellotape and string construction

Much like your understanding of the revolution in general.

 

[camouflage]

The reasons Putin gave are probably closest to the mark in my humble opinion; Syrian government stabilized, massive damage done to war efforts and supporting networks of the various daesh, peace-process underway etc. This is how the judicious use of force is culminated after clearly defined objectives have been met. I think it was never the Russians objective to win the Syrians war for them, or get bogged-down in another Afganistan, or to indulge in the kind of years long open-ended multi-billion-dollar-budget mess the Americans are so fond of.

Random baloney about MANPADS scaring the Russians away is too stupid to comment on really, but I will say that even the US isn't foolish enough to start handing out the kind of AA that could shoot down Russian aircraft (at the heights they operate at) to their pet-jihadists or the secular-rebels that are so easily relieved of such kit. And even the Pentagon had noted that the economic load of the Russian campaign could easily have been supported for years.

"Russian imperialism in Syria", said one of the intelligent nincompoops on this thread back in November, mistaking Russia for being some sort of equal-and-opposite United States due to the military intervention. Skoolboy-error really.

Anyway, the intervention was risky for Russia, but effective and well executed in hindsight, even with the predictable twitter-spray of bombed schools and hospitals featuring pictures of rubble and injured children worthy of the same lot that brought us those tank-columns trundling into Ukraine every two weeks.

I wonder what surprises Vladimir Vladimirovitch Putin, (excellent in the art of timing it seems) has in store for us next.

 

[camouflage]

Neocons: ""We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors…and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do."

Putin: "Er... no."

 

[butchersapron]

Syrians - why cant' you see us? Oh great, the internet,

 

[butchersapron]

Neocons: ""We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors…and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do."

Putin: "Er... no."

The syrian people, the actors, oh fuck it, you're too far gone.

 

[butchersapron]

Actor fits for you though, just a great big tv drama - cutting a 12 year old boy cock off and sending the murdered body home, fine, just want peace. Barrel bombs, they're not that bad.

Joke person.

 

[camouflage]

Joke person.

Your other nonesense notwithstanding, this did make me lol.

 

[Casually Red]

Their immediate goals are largely achieved . The military situation has greatly stabilised , large strategically crucial swathes of territory liberated , . And there wasn't a large Russian force there to begin with . Syrians can take it from here on in, with continued Russian air support .
Still laughing about them being scared away . Fuckwittery at its finest

 

[butchersapron]

Your other nonesense notwithstanding, this did make me lol.

This didn't though:

cutting a 12 year old boy cock off and sending the murdered body home, fine, just want peace. Barrel bombs, they're not that bad.

 

[Casually Red]

The main body of Russian military were engaged in protecting the Russian air assets in Latakia. Latakias been cleansed of jihadis now, they've been routed by the syrian army and driven out . They simply aren't needed any more to protect the aircraft . Which are staying and which will continue to drop seriously bad news on the loons whenever required .