And next, Syria?

[butchersapron]

By fitting it in my head that the likes of Hizbollah and Hamas are not Spectre, are not based out of a volcano-base somewhere in the Pacific, do not necesarrily receive their orders beamed from the Mysterons and may actually have a lot of support among the people they claim to represent.

You mean by offering a crude truism that tells us precisely nothing about anything whatsoever, that refuses to look at the social base of their support, the internal and external drivers of that support, whose interests (again, internal and external - political, social and economic) that support is mobilised behind and how, how this support is integrated with these interests, the contradictions that they are an expression of (historically and today) and what options this opens up, what the likely conditions and situations they will face are and what may happen to them and so on. By refusing to do any of that, you think that you're 'dealing' with it/them?

 

[camouflage]

You mean by offering a crude truism that tells us precisely nothing about anything whatsoever, that refuses to look at the social base of their support, the internal and external drivers of that support, whose interests (again, internal and external - political, social and economic) that support is mobilised behind and how, how this support is integrated with these interests, the contradictions that they are an expression of (historically and today) and what options this opens up, what the likely conditions and situations they will face are and what may happen to them and so on. By refusing to do any of that, you think that you're 'dealing' with it/them?

Fuck that, everything you've said I implicitly accept. I refuse to cartoonize them, that's precisely my point.

 

[butchersapron]

I've never seen you do any such thing (on any subject at all btw). You actually accused someone who appears to have done a bit of the above and came to a different conclusion than you of cartoonising them - and without offering any sort of counter-analysis based on doing the above. Your accusation appeared to consist entirely of them having a measure of popular support, and so are unable to be politically rejected. Well, they can - but with the proviso that the above is attempted. To argue otherwise is certainly to cartoonise and render infantile not only them but all politics and all political debate.

 

[camouflage]

I've never seen you do any such thing (on any subject at all btw). You actually accused someone who appears to have done a bit of the above and came to a different conclusion than you of cartoonising them - and without offering any sort of counter-analysis based on doing the above. Your accusation appeared to consist entirely of them having a measure of popular support, and so are unable to be politically rejected. Well, they can - but with the proviso that the above is attempted. To argue otherwise is certainly to cartoonise and render infantile not only them but all politics and all political debate.

Frankly I don't think you're making any sense, stop trying to derail the thread and let the grown-ups talk.

 

[IC3D]

With Palestinians now fleeing Syria and being turned back by Jordan I could almost see Israel giving them asylum at this point. The politics of the region are complicated I don't pretend to have a grasp of even a small amount at this point. That said my feelings are that overturning Assad can only be a good thing for the region, Iran and Syria have exploited Palestine for decades perpetuating violence and claiming to be the ones fighting for the Ummah, Its all utter bullshit and the Arab Spring is a groundswell of awareness that these players are not representative of anyone but their cliques. If I hold any hope of things getting better for Palestine it would be if Israel was left as the only Bigoted state in the region and not one of many.

 

[camouflage]

I think more should be said of where the likes of Saudi Arabia and Qatar stand in all this, people are always bad-mouthing Iran like they're some shadowy and malicious force behind it all, but actually it makes sense that Iran is interested in what's going on with it's long-bordering neigbours, just as it makes sense that Turkey's interested and involved. these are the nations that have to deal with the fugee-floods and insecurity afterall. Makes more sense that Iran is trying to influence the situation in its favour than a vast and powerful nation an ocean and a sub-continent away anyway. And actually why shouldn't there be political relationships between Iranians and other shi'ite communities in the area, the fact that politicians use such things in order to pursue political objectives is just part and parcel of that. These thinsg must be negotiated, I think it's far more complex than just painting bogeymen everywhere

While we're at it I don't agree with the anything-but-Assad point of view either, years of warlordism and sectarian massacres is not an improvement in my opinion, in fact it's worse. It's also pretty appalling the way the Alawites are being described in the media as a 'sect'... in a manner that implies that they're some sort of whacked-out apocalyptic death cult and not a minority religious community. Whatever happens after Assad I bet we won't see the media paying much attention if the massacres and ethnic-cleansings escalate. Attention will just shift to moaning about bloody immigrants swamping the NHS or whatever.

 

[IC3D]

I don't care where Iran, Saudi and Qatar stand but when they should fall, the people bad mouthing these shitty regimes are on their own streets, its the 21st century remember these regimes rule over people who have access to information channels unheard of even a couple of years ago, do you think they will sit and do nothing about it, do you imagine they are any different from us? of course not. China knows this and goes to great lengths to control these sort of shenanigans. I can't possibly know how fucked up it will get but you know communication is also a way to resolve differences - that was a rant just to be clear

 

[elbows]

And here is a story about one of the recent syria email wikileaks, detailing a report that some global propaganda corporation had prepared for the regime:

https://english.al-akhbar.com/content/us-firm-encourages-fist-and-open-hand-syria

The actual document is linked to on this page: http://wikileaks.org/syria-files/docs/2089956_political-communications.html

 

[elbows]

And if you read the actual document then the al-akhbar headline is somewhat misleading, since what the tedious corporate propagandists were actually recommending in their lazy report was a rebalancing of the already existing fist and open hand communications approach, rebalanced somewhat so that the fist was not quite so huge compared to the open hand. Which is what they would say really, since such a rebalancing would allow them to sell their services as a purveyor of the usual brand of corporate PR double-plus-good positive friendly propaganda. They even speak of the reform stuff not having a brand identity. And of course as part of touting for business they advise the regime to basically pay them to watch telly in the US & UK. Oh sorry I mean '24-hour media monitoring and response system should be in place with assets in UK and US markets'.

If thats all this was then I wouldnt have even bothered posting about it, but since this document is supposed to be about 'Crisis Communications' there is some slightly more interesting advice in the latter stages of the document. Pretend that everything is fine, be sure to acknowledge peoples legit grievances but appeal to patriotism.

Also keep in mind that its somewhat dated now, so especially the first section is out of whack with how things appear now.

 

[IC3D]

And here is a story about one of the recent syria email wikileaks, detailing a report that some global propaganda corporation had prepared for the regime:

https://english.al-akhbar.com/content/us-firm-encourages-fist-and-open-hand-syria

The actual document is linked to on this page: http://wikileaks.org/syria-files/docs/2089956_political-communications.html

This rings very true, incidentally a Facebook page a friend is involved in was spammed relentlessly by a Syrian in Moscow, it sounds daft to say but it was very meticulously done and they posted hundreds of times denouncing comments and putting up fake videos.

 

[goldenecitrone]

While we're at it I don't agree with the anything-but-Assad point of view either, years of warlordism and sectarian massacres is not an improvement in my opinion, in fact it's worse. It's also pretty appalling the way the Alawites are being described in the media as a 'sect'... in a manner that implies that they're some sort of whacked-out apocalyptic death cult and not a minority religious community. Whatever happens after Assad I bet we won't see the media paying much attention if the massacres and ethnic-cleansings escalate. Attention will just shift to moaning about bloody immigrants swamping the NHS or whatever.

What is appalling is the Assad regime murdering thousands of civilians. That is appalling.

 

[Divisive Cotton]

I've just read this tweet:

Hevallo ‏@Hevallo
The Kurdish Revolution is not being televised! Kurdish city by city is falling out of Assad's hands tonight! #RojavaRevolts

This is a video their propaganda unit has put out:



great news if true

 

[Divisive Cotton]

wow, on the one hand you lay into Hezbollah, on the other hand you applaud the dodgy bunch of Islamist cunts that have just suicide-bombed some dodgy secular cunt. Fair enough if you're against Hezbollah, but the reasoning you're using doesn't add up, definitely some far-out moral algebra at play though.

I support the popular overthrow of the Assad mafia clan. It's as simple as that. They've grown ultra-rich off the backs of the Syrian people and as a supposed republic they hand down power from one family generation to the next. Indeed there are nutty Islamists at work in Syria, but that clearly isn't the entire picture and to portray the entire rebellion as a 'dodgy bunch of Islamist cunts ' is to do a disservice to the those fighting back and is insult to the thousands of dead, hundreds of which are children.

In the Egypt there were clearly dodgy Islamist elements at work, but I don't remember you voicing criticism against the Egyptian revolution on those grounds.

 

[camouflage]

I think Syria could do with the Assad era being the low point of their history, and for things to get better, slowly if necessary and swiftly if possible, from now on in.

for instance I'd rather Kaddafi still ran Libya and those hundreds of thousands of people still had their lives then what they have now, which is roving bands of armed thugs, destroyed cities, racist pogroms and ethnic cleansing, depleted uranium dust to blight generations of children into the future and people in unending incarceration and torture at the hands of gunmen in various mysterious prisons being done to god knows what and made to do god knows what else with no one able to do fuck all about it. I don't consider that an improved situation for the Libyans, just a bigger volume of what went before in a sort of freemarket of violence and tyranny where before there was a state monopoly of the stuff, and much less efficient at it to be fair. That's the way Syria looks like it's going, the slogan for the rebellion since it was hijacked by the dodgies may as well be 'Why let Assad have all the fun?'

 

[Knotted]

I support the popular overthrow of the Assad mafia clan. It's as simple as that. They've grown ultra-rich off the backs of the Syrian people and as a supposed republic they hand down power from one family generation to the next. Indeed there are nutty Islamists at work in Syria, but that clearly isn't the entire picture and to portray the entire rebellion as a 'dodgy bunch of Islamist cunts ' is to do a disservice to the those fighting back and is insult to the thousands of dead, hundreds of which are children.

In the Egypt there were clearly dodgy Islamist elements at work, but I don't remember you voicing criticism against the Egyptian revolution on those grounds.

If you'd said this a year ago I would agree with you. If you'd said it six months ago, I would agree with you with some reservations. But now - the popular revolt is all but finished and what we have is an armed struggle between the regime and GCC/NATO backed (predominantly) islamist gangs.

 

[elbows]

I think Syria could do with the Assad era being the low point of their history, and for things to get better, slowly if necessary and swiftly if possible, from now on in.

for instance I'd rather Kaddafi still ran Libya and those hundreds of thousands of people still had their lives then what they have now, which is roving bands of armed thugs, destroyed cities, racist pogroms and ethnic cleansing, depleted uranium dust to blight generations of children into the future and people in unending incarceration and torture at the hands of gunmen in various mysterious prisons being done to god knows what and made to do god knows what else with no one able to do fuck all about it. I don't consider that an improved situation for the Libyans, just a bigger volume of what went before in a sort of freemarket of violence and tyranny where before there was a state monopoly of the stuff, and much less efficient at it to be fair. That's the way Syria looks like it's going, the slogan for the rebellion since it was hijacked by the dodgies may as well be 'Why let Assad have all the fun?'

How easily you become an apologist for strongmen. The alternatives are hardly paradise and the stench of death should not be ignored. But neither should the struggle of people, and at least Libyans are no longer condemned to neo-liberal reforms under Gaddafi & sons without any political freedom. Libya has many very serious problems but they have also discovered their voice, and opened up a lot more possible options for the future.

What is in store for Syria may not be the same, I find it rather hard to tell, but Id rather keep the Libya stuff to the Libya threads that struggle to get much discussion going these days, often featuring me talking to myself. But in case you missed it, they just elected rather a lot of women.

 

[Divisive Cotton]

There's loads of stuff about the Kurdish revolt on Twitter

Apparently, the two main Kurdish factions have now formed a cooperation agreement

In the areas where they overlap, the Kurdish units are fighting alongside the Arab units while up in the mountains the Kurds are fighting with the Turkmen, again because the their two populations overlap in the same areas

Demo today in a Kurdish area:



Fighting in a Kurdish neighbourhood of Allepo:



Apparently this is Assyrian and Kurds demonstrating together:

Interesting tweet from a very reliable Al Jazeera journalist:

Zeina Khodr ‏@ZeinakhodrAljaz

Many of the Syrians who crossed into #Lebanon from middle and upper classes who were staying on sidelines of rebellion #Syria

Also read this Tweet:

Rodî Xelîl Kawro ✌ ‏@RodiKawro
The Yekîneyên Parastina Gel #YPG is now officially the armed part of PKK in Syria. | #TwitterKurds #Syria

Does anybody know what he means by that?

 

[Divisive Cotton]

If you'd said this a year ago I would agree with you. If you'd said it six months ago, I would agree with you with some reservations. But now - the popular revolt is all but finished and what we have is an armed struggle between the regime and GCC/NATO backed (predominantly) islamist gangs.

the reality on the ground is far more complex than that

 

[Divisive Cotton]

It's surely all over for Assad now. Morrisey is wearing an anti-Assad t-shirt: http://www.electric-banana.co.uk/news/music-news/morrissey-makes-syrian-protest-at-gig-in-turkey/

 

[camouflage]

the reality on the ground is far more complex than that

and yet somehow your posts to me seem to imply this...

I agree however that the reality on the ground is far more complex than that.

 

[Divisive Cotton]

The Kurdish situation is interesting

All the main Kurdish groups have now formed a united umbrella organisation called the Popular Protection Units - this also includes the PKK

They are taking on Assad's forces but have today claimed that they have shot down a Turkish military helicopter. They claim to have hundreds of fighters pouring in from Iraq and Iran.

Just read this Tweet:

Mahir Zeynalov ‏@MahirZeynalov
Turkey deploys large numbers of missile batteries, armored vehicles and troops in Mardin's Nusaybin district on the Syria border.
Retweeted by Martin Chulov

I reckon that Kurdish militancy is more likely to provoke a Turkish military intervention that anything that Assad does

 

[teqniq]

They have wanted their own homeland for quite some time, something that had been complete anathema to both Turkey and Iran.

 

[Delroy Booth]

#Syria: This is very significant: Syrian State TV is repeating a warning message to its viewers cautioning them "there is an attempt in the process to create a replica of the Syrian Satellite channel and this replica will be on the same frequency and the presenters or journalists on this replica channel might be the same as of the official channel because they might be forced to but this is a conspiracy and if this occurs do not worry this is fake".

More here. https://www.facebook.com/ramijarah/posts/10151147590307873

The people there seem to be suggesting this is somehow a russian backed military coup, is it likely there's any truth in that?

 

[camouflage]

#Syria: This is very significant: Syrian State TV is repeating a warning message to its viewers cautioning them "there is an attempt in the process to create a replica of the Syrian Satellite channel and this replica will be on the same frequency and the presenters or journalists on this replica channel might be the same as of the official channel because they might be forced to but this is a conspiracy and if this occurs do not worry this is fake".

More here. https://www.facebook.com/ramijarah/posts/10151147590307873

The people there seem to be suggesting this is somehow a russian backed military coup, is it likely there's any truth in that?

Wouldn't be surprised if the Russians did intervene at this point, but this warning stuff can be all sorts of FUD op.

 

[elbows]

I would like to have a confirmed translation of what was said on Syrian tv in that regard.

It still seems almost impossible to even begin to sift the bullshit from the evolving realities in Syria. It sounds like things have entered a more intense phase recently, and on the international propaganda front I see that we are now up to our necks in vague drool about chemical weapons. The Kurdish stuff is interesting but again there is a void of quality information and no shortage of theories.

 

[teqniq]

Hmmmmm

A top Iranian military official warned on Tuesday that Syria's allies “will not allow regime change” and would land "decisive blows" on Damascus's enemies if they entered the growing conflict.

“The Syrian people and the friends of Syria will not allow regime change,” Brigadier General Masoud Jazayeri, the deputy chief of Iran's joint armed forces, was quoted as saying on the official website of the Revolutionary Guards.

"Neither the friends of Syria nor the [anti-Israel] resistance movement [comprising Iranian, Syrian, Palestinian and Lebanon's Hezbollah forces] have yet entered the scene," he said.

"If they do, they will deliver decisive blows to the enemy front, in particular to the despised Arabs."

http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=422170

 

[teqniq]

This article in the Graun makes for grim reading:

Inside Syria: rebels and regime trapped in cycle of destruction

 

[Casually Red]

Helicopters gunships.



http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jul/13/syria-helicopters-tanks-tremseh

being used to target heavily armed insurgents , not demonstrators .

 

[IC3D]

being used to target heavily armed insurgents , not demonstrators .

Oh god your not another Assad apologist are you.

 

[Casually Red]

That's ok then. As long as they are only slaughtering activists.

that would be heavily armed activists , sponsored, funded and armed overtly by Qatar and Saudi Arabia . Basically Al Qaeda and a host of other Salafist derivatives who are the cheif beneficiaries of this financial and logistical largesse . With the NATO powers chomping at the bit to get in there and bomb the place too .

Your shyness at addressing the perfectly bleeding obvious bit in this equation looks suspiciously like you giving us the impression HIND gunships are being deployed against people with placards . As opposed to heavily armed Saudi proxies .