Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
Fisk on Christians , Syrian army , FSA , partition, IS etc .
And next, Syria?
- Thread starter Idris2002
- Start date
Fisk on Christians , Syrian army , FSA , partition, IS etc .
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Useful summary piece - worth bookmarking for the links alone. Assad did an unexpected televised speech last night:
The meat of the speech was neither the attempt to co-opt Western-inspired “antiterrorist” discourse nor the nationalist rah-rah. Far more interesting was Assad’s lengthy discussion of the recent setbacks suffered by his army. After advancing for much of 2014, the government ran out of steam over the winter, as the economy started to sputter and rebels received additional support. This spring, Assad’s fortunes took a sharp turn for the worse.
In March, Assad’s troops were forced to surrender the provincial capital of Idlib to Islamist rebels, as well as the southern city of Bosra al-Sham. In April, the army’s last real foothold in Idlib was lost with Ariha and Jisr al-Shughur. Then the last remaining border crossing into Jordan went the same way, which slashed overland trade. In May, the extremist group known as the Islamic State took Sukhna and the strategic city of Palmyra, isolating the city of Deir Ezzor. It then began to seize or destroy parts of Syria’s energy infrastructure. In June, more moderate rebels took out an important army base in the southern Daraa Governorate, although the ensuing offensive to capture Daraa City then seemed to stall. The Islamic State jihadists have also given Assad’s forces a bad bruising in Hasakah, although the army has so far held out thanks to an alliance of convenience with local Kurdish fighters.
...
The Syrian leader went on to explain that the military is forced to prioritize “vital areas that must be held as to prevent other areas from falling,” hinting that this could include places of military-strategic importance, politically symbolic cities, or regions housing infrastructure and institutions that offer key services.
According to a source with high-level connections in the Syrian government, the speech on July 26 had been long in coming. It represented an attempt to climb down from past rhetoric about defending all of Syria after new realities have dawned on even the most hawkish leaders within the regime. “There were two camps after Idlib,” explained the source. “One wanted to get it back and one did not. Then came the loss of Jisr al-Shughur, that was the real blow. When they were about to attack Jisr al-Shughur to take it back, Palmyra fell. It was then that the totality of it all became obvious.
...
For the first time, Assad publicly admitted to the manpower problem that his army faces, although he claimed that it is overstated in pro-opposition propaganda (which is surely true). He sought to convince citizens to get off the fence and join in the battle, because “the army’s energy is manpower, and if we want the army to give its best, then we need to give it our best.” Having recently signed an amnesty decree for deserters and draft dodgers in the hope of getting “a few thousand” of them back, the president declared that “when the state shifts to a state of war, the numbers must be increased and this is by calling in the reserves as well as conscripts and volunteers.”
Earlier this year, rumors circulated that Assad would declare a general mobilization, activating all army reservists and drawing more civilians into the war effort. The rumors were denied at the time, as they have been before. However, Assad now explicitly referenced qanoun al-taabia, the mobilization law that regulates draft and mobilization rules, which he issued in early 2011 . He explained that the situation might require that “civilian resources” like “cars, machinery, and facilities” are placed “at the disposal of the armed forces” since “the war is waged by the entire country and all of society.”
...
But there seems to be no doubt about Assad’s own determination to fight on. In his speech, he hardly mentioned the idea of ultimate victory over his opponents. Yet, he spoke time and again of sumoud, the Arabic term for perseverance and struggling on against the odds, as if this was not only a glorious undertaking but also the best his citizens could hope for. Victory for Syrian loyalists has been redefined as thwarting their opponents and thereby, Assad claimed, keeping themselves and their nation alive. “The price is high because the scheme is formidable. The war is a war of existence; to be or not to be,” he said.
If accounts from those in touch with Assad’s associates can be relied on, that is indeed the mood in the regime’s core. Assad may finally have accepted that he will have to relinquish parts of Syria, tactically settling in behind the lines that he thinks that he can hold—but he’s not about to surrender.
--------
edit: (If you know Arabic, you can watch the video recording or read the official transcript. There is also an official but not entirely complete English transcript.)
The meat of the speech was neither the attempt to co-opt Western-inspired “antiterrorist” discourse nor the nationalist rah-rah. Far more interesting was Assad’s lengthy discussion of the recent setbacks suffered by his army. After advancing for much of 2014, the government ran out of steam over the winter, as the economy started to sputter and rebels received additional support. This spring, Assad’s fortunes took a sharp turn for the worse.
In March, Assad’s troops were forced to surrender the provincial capital of Idlib to Islamist rebels, as well as the southern city of Bosra al-Sham. In April, the army’s last real foothold in Idlib was lost with Ariha and Jisr al-Shughur. Then the last remaining border crossing into Jordan went the same way, which slashed overland trade. In May, the extremist group known as the Islamic State took Sukhna and the strategic city of Palmyra, isolating the city of Deir Ezzor. It then began to seize or destroy parts of Syria’s energy infrastructure. In June, more moderate rebels took out an important army base in the southern Daraa Governorate, although the ensuing offensive to capture Daraa City then seemed to stall. The Islamic State jihadists have also given Assad’s forces a bad bruising in Hasakah, although the army has so far held out thanks to an alliance of convenience with local Kurdish fighters.
...
The Syrian leader went on to explain that the military is forced to prioritize “vital areas that must be held as to prevent other areas from falling,” hinting that this could include places of military-strategic importance, politically symbolic cities, or regions housing infrastructure and institutions that offer key services.
According to a source with high-level connections in the Syrian government, the speech on July 26 had been long in coming. It represented an attempt to climb down from past rhetoric about defending all of Syria after new realities have dawned on even the most hawkish leaders within the regime. “There were two camps after Idlib,” explained the source. “One wanted to get it back and one did not. Then came the loss of Jisr al-Shughur, that was the real blow. When they were about to attack Jisr al-Shughur to take it back, Palmyra fell. It was then that the totality of it all became obvious.
...
For the first time, Assad publicly admitted to the manpower problem that his army faces, although he claimed that it is overstated in pro-opposition propaganda (which is surely true). He sought to convince citizens to get off the fence and join in the battle, because “the army’s energy is manpower, and if we want the army to give its best, then we need to give it our best.” Having recently signed an amnesty decree for deserters and draft dodgers in the hope of getting “a few thousand” of them back, the president declared that “when the state shifts to a state of war, the numbers must be increased and this is by calling in the reserves as well as conscripts and volunteers.”
Earlier this year, rumors circulated that Assad would declare a general mobilization, activating all army reservists and drawing more civilians into the war effort. The rumors were denied at the time, as they have been before. However, Assad now explicitly referenced qanoun al-taabia, the mobilization law that regulates draft and mobilization rules, which he issued in early 2011 . He explained that the situation might require that “civilian resources” like “cars, machinery, and facilities” are placed “at the disposal of the armed forces” since “the war is waged by the entire country and all of society.”
...
But there seems to be no doubt about Assad’s own determination to fight on. In his speech, he hardly mentioned the idea of ultimate victory over his opponents. Yet, he spoke time and again of sumoud, the Arabic term for perseverance and struggling on against the odds, as if this was not only a glorious undertaking but also the best his citizens could hope for. Victory for Syrian loyalists has been redefined as thwarting their opponents and thereby, Assad claimed, keeping themselves and their nation alive. “The price is high because the scheme is formidable. The war is a war of existence; to be or not to be,” he said.
If accounts from those in touch with Assad’s associates can be relied on, that is indeed the mood in the regime’s core. Assad may finally have accepted that he will have to relinquish parts of Syria, tactically settling in behind the lines that he thinks that he can hold—but he’s not about to surrender.
--------
edit: (If you know Arabic, you can watch the video recording or read the official transcript. There is also an official but not entirely complete English transcript.)
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/markaz/posts/2015/07/14-syrian-islamists-us-issues-lister
Article here on Ahrah al Sham whose leader recently write an op ed piece in a US newspaper.
Article here on Ahrah al Sham whose leader recently write an op ed piece in a US newspaper.
Patteran
A nowadays excuse
Kuwaiti Al Rai Media reporting a potentially significant negotiation, with journalist Elijah Magnier calling it the beginning of partition - suggesting that 40,000 Shia civilians will leave/be expelled from Fu'a & Kafrya in Idlib, & opposition fighters (Nusra, I think) leaving Zabadani. Single source so far - or at least a single bullet-pointed English translation. Assad's speech possibly a precursor to this, explaining & mitigating the up coming news?
I don't know much about the source or the lead writer, but he did a reddit AMA last year.
I don't know much about the source or the lead writer, but he did a reddit AMA last year.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archi...mullah-omar-praise-talibans-radical-state.php
Very good article here about Ahrar al Sham and the Taliban.
Very good article here about Ahrar al Sham and the Taliban.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
Anyone know whats going on in Qaryatayn, looks like ISIS are launching a fairly major offensive there.
Also:
http://syriadirect.org/news/syria-direct-news-update-8-5-15/
Also:
http://syriadirect.org/news/syria-direct-news-update-8-5-15/
Last edited:
Patteran
A nowadays excuse
Lebanese (& pro Syrian regime) news source reporting that SAA & Hizbollah have rejected this proposed Zabadani deal & will not lift the siege. I'm not convinced by the veracity of this site - it's littered with uncorroborated headline grabbing stories - including a cracker that has Putin saying to the Turkish ambassador “Tell your dictator president he can go to hell along with his ISIL terrorist and I shall make Syria to nothing but a ‘Big Stalingrad’, for Erdoğan and his Saudi allies are no vicious than Adolf Hitler”.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
Another great US 'success'
http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ra-front-al-qaida-kidnapping?CMP=share_btn_tw
http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ra-front-al-qaida-kidnapping?CMP=share_btn_tw
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
Leith Fadel is without doubt heavily biased in favour of the Syrian armed forces etc , and certainly does engage in bouts of pure propaganda as can be expected . But it's widely acknowledged by tweeters and redditors alike that he has pretty good sources and contacts and can sometimes be very much on the money when it comes to this particular type of story .
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
A series of pics in zabadani showing SAA and HZB forces standing just metres away from the surrounded jihadists during the ceasefire there .
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
http://uk.businessinsider.com/assad-is-the-best-isis-recruiting-tool-2015-8?r=US&IR=T
Assad barrel bombs are the best recruiting tool isis have ever had
Assad barrel bombs are the best recruiting tool isis have ever had
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
Far from being beaten , as the western media have been proclaiming for months...yet again..it looks like the Syrian army's back on the offensive . All over the place pretty much and theyve seized districts from IS and all the other lot in a number of regions . And it seems they're being right sneaky with it too . As right in the middle of it the jihadi groups are announcing via twitter that a string of their leaders , mostly al qaeda, have been assassinated in areas right across Syria . And another one in Lebanon just the other day, just as the zabadani ceasefire broke down .
There's been a lot of that going on previously against IS around Deir ez zor and Raqqa with Baathist sleeper cells knocking them off in their backyard . But this looks to be more widespread and co ordinated within the jihadi held areas against the backdrop of army offensives . Hopefully they're getting their act back together after a series of bad setbacks .
There's been a lot of that going on previously against IS around Deir ez zor and Raqqa with Baathist sleeper cells knocking them off in their backyard . But this looks to be more widespread and co ordinated within the jihadi held areas against the backdrop of army offensives . Hopefully they're getting their act back together after a series of bad setbacks .
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
That's an absolute load of nonsense . There's a recognised legal opposition and a national reconciliation committee and minister beeen working flat out for years . That ridiculous cartoon is simply to blame the Syrian government for the fact the people the west and their allies have supported all along were violent jihadists . That's who they donated literally billions in arms and funds to for years . And then they try and blame the Syrians for the fact the extra legal opposition is dominated by jihadists . Something they denied for years until it became too obvious to ignore .
They completely ignore , or simply demonise, the legal opposition because it doesn't want war , jihadists or foreign intervention .
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Coordination_Committee_for_Democratic_Change
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
Tony Blair lives in the same city as you . Sort that one out instead of praying for an al Qaeda victory .
teqniq
DisMembered
What on earth are you wittering on about here? I really think you need to have a word with yourself. Where have I ever shown support for the bearded loons? I have clearly stated on more than one occasion that atrocities have been committed by all sides, if I was to consider support for any of the military factions it would be the YPG and the more moderate elements of the FSA but in all honesty my support lies with the ordinary people who've been slaughtered and turned into refugees. People like this guy:
People like the 50+ killed in Douma and Ghouta the other day. Yup it's a 'rebel' held area but do you seriously think all those 50+ were fighters? I'll lay odds on most of them being civilians being bombed by their own regime. When I say 'a lot of other people' in post #3048 I include the bearded loons and anyone else guilty of atrocities. Unlike you I do not wear blinkers.
Please engage what passes for a brain before letting your fingers anywhere near a keyboard.
TIA
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
What on earth are you wittering on about here? I really think you need to have a word with yourself. Where have I ever shown support for the bearded loons? I have clearly stated on more than one occasion that atrocities have been committed by all sides, if I was to consider support for any of the military factions it would be the YPG and the more moderate elements of the FSA but in all honesty my support lies with the ordinary people who've been slaughtered and turned into refugees. People like this guy:
People like the 50+ killed in Douma and Ghouta the other day. Yup it's a 'rebel' held area but do you seriously think all those 50+ were fighters? I'll lay odds on most of them being civilians being bombed by their own regime. When I say 'a lot of other people' in post #3048 I include the bearded loons and anyone else guilty of atrocities. Unlike you I do not wear blinkers.
Please engage what passes for a brain before letting your fingers anywhere near a keyboard.
TIA
The ypg are in one small corner of Syria . "fsa moderates" not only behead but eat bits of their prisoners , and sometimes barbecue body parts . Their favourite slogan is " christians to beiruit , alawites to the grave" and they regularly rub shoulders with the islamic loonies , many more previously defected to them .One doesnt have to be particularly pious in order to be rabidly sectarian either . As we can see from this al jazeera talk show were the host and one of his guests ....both resolutely moderate...openly encourage genocidal sentiment . Including against children .
Should Syria be overthrown its minorities shall face genocide , simple as that, regardless of who you support . The outcome you've called for, the overthrow of the Syrian president and his rendition to the hagues victors justice department will be at the price of a Rwanda style massacre that even your cuddly moderates will happily play their part in . So I'd , respectfully, suggest it's yourself that could do with engaging the old brain before posting . The price Syrians will have to pay for your desired outcome will be a genocidal one .
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
I've understood perfectly well . I think it's a case of you not understanding what will happen if you get what you wish for .
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
Now this sounds bloody interesting . A possibility of Iran...and even Russia...joining the international co alition against IS and the like on an official basis.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...ant-shift-in-its-foreign-policy-10461307.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...ant-shift-in-its-foreign-policy-10461307.html
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
Balls . I support an outcome , and I've to take the flak that goes with that . Others, including yourself, support a different outcome but refuse to accept that outcome will come with a number of price tags . Namely, a failed state completely overrun by international loons and a genocide against Syrian minorities . The same idiots were clapping their hands over libya too . And I got the same shit for pointing it out then .
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Flavour
hang the bankers
This is the CURRENT situation - not your imagined post-Assad inferno. It is already here.
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