A thank you to Brexiteers.

[glitch hiker]

That would be telling.

of what?

 

[andysays]

Really difficult to conclude about motivations without some serious fieldwork, tbh.
I agree that it's quite rational for those affected to keep their option of UK settled status open, but we have to remember that all of this was made necessary by the withdrawal from supra state membership.

I agree it's more or less impossible to say anything conclusive about motivation - there will presumably be a whole range of motivations, which is why "because of Brexit" is so simplistic as to be pointless.

 

[Pickman's model]

Really difficult to conclude about motivations without some serious fieldwork, tbh.
I agree that it's quite rational for those affected to keep their option of UK settled status open, but we have to remember that all of this was made necessary by the withdrawal from supra state membership.

Rationality much overrated

 

[andysays]

As is my understanding: supply chain issues are due to a shortage of drivers. Consequently food, and possibly other things (i dont' know haven't done any other kind of shopping recently), is not appearing on shelves, hence the pics floating around on social media.

Brexit is causal because the drivers have left the UK. Our government could change things so that some/all are incentivised and allowed to return, but given the government we have, put in place because of Brexit, that isn't happening. It may yet do so, but I have no faith in Priti Patel not being a complete shitbag. So it's directly and indirectly causal.

If you can demonstrate otherwise then please do so.

Many/most of the drivers who have left could have applied for and been granted settled status. It appears that some (we don't know how many) have actually been granted settled status, but have since chosen to leave.

So your apparent notion that the drivers have been forced to leave because they weren't allowed to stay is a bit simplistic.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Many/most of the drivers who have left could have applied for and been granted settled status. It appears that some (we don't know how many) have actually been granted settled status, but have since chosen to leave.

So your apparent notion that the drivers have been forced to leave because they weren't allowed to stay is a bit simplistic.

We've also already had a discussion on here about how many drivers we are talking about. IIRC it was 3% of the overall number employed, and, as you say, some of this will have chosen to stay.

 

[brogdale]

I agree it's more or less impossible to say anything conclusive about motivation - there will presumably be a whole range of motivations, which is why "because of Brexit" is so simplistic as to be pointless.

Yes, except that 'because of Brexit' a whole new set of decisions had to made by those EU nationals resident in the UK without dual nationality or indefinite leave to enter/remain.

 

[glitch hiker]

Many/most of the drivers who have left could have applied for and been granted settled status. It appears that some (we don't know how many) have actually been granted settled status, but have since chosen to leave.

So your apparent notion that the drivers have been forced to leave because they weren't allowed to stay is a bit simplistic.

do you have a citation for that?

 

[andysays]

We've also already had a discussion on here about how many drivers we are talking about. IIRC it was 3% of the overall number employed, and, as you say, some of this will have chosen to stay.

Can you expand on this a bit?

Are you saying that 3% of the total number of drivers previously working in the UK, have now returned to their EU home countries, or something different?

 

[Raheem]

Can you expand on this a bit?

Are you saying that 3% of the total number of drivers previously working in the UK, have now returned to their EU home countries, or something different?

2-3% of all UK-based hgv drivers were EU citizens and left because of Brexit. About twice that many were EU citizens and have not left.

 

[The39thStep]

I think what you're doing is seeing loons when all you're looking at is someone who's wrong about something that is actually debatable in any case. Not unusual, and not even weird since they're trying to guess at things happening in another country. Not really worth your time, and a waste of anyone else's.

Reminds me of the ‘boys will be boys’ defence in Better Call Saul

 

[Raheem]

Reminds me of the ‘boys will be boys’ defence in Better Call Saul

Except I haven't defended anything. I simply pointed out that there's a difference between being wrong and being a loon.

 

[andysays]

do you have a citation for that?

Read the article from the FT quoted upthread by The39thStep which talks about unknown numbers of workers who have been granted settled status subsequently choosing to return to their home countries.

It's talking specifically about the meat processing industry, but there's no reason to suppose it hasn't happened in other industries too.

 

[andysays]

2-3% of all UK-based hgv drivers were EU citizens and left because of Brexit. About twice that many were EU citizens and have not left.

OK, except that unless you've asked them, you don't really know why they've left.

Some of them will have left specifically because of Brexit, some of them because of Covid, some of them for personal reasons unconnected with either.

 

[bimble]

Ffs this thread didn’t think it could get worse but it’s just going from strength to strength.
People going on like all the stuff in our shops is brought to us only by lorry drivers who live here in the uk.
It’s really not.
Drivers who live in Europe are choosing to not come here, because delivering to the UK is a shit job because you don’t get paid for sitting at customs borders.

 

[Raheem]

OK, except that unless you've asked them, you don't really know why they've left.

Some of them will have left specifically because of Brexit, some of them because of Covid, some of them for personal reasons unconnected with either.

I don't think it really matters why they left. They are said to have left because of Brexit, and I believe the pattern over time suggests this.

 

[pogofish]

I just read that due to Brexit rules and regs, M&S have dropped half the range of sandwiches they're exporting into Ireland. EXCELLENT! Another Brexit positive. Fucking massive food miles on things like sandwiches is disgraceful and should be outlawed.

Apparently they have the same problem in France, where their sandwiches have become, somewhat inexplicably, quite popular - How will the poor French cope?

 

[Pickman's model]

Apparently they have the same problem in France, where their sandwiches have become, somewhat inexplicably, quite popular - How will the poor French cope?

Poorly

 

[Pickman's model]

Ffs this thread didn’t think it could get worse but it’s just going from strength to strength.
People going on like all the stuff in our shops is brought to us only by lorry drivers who live here in the uk.
It’s really not.
Drivers who live in Europe are choosing to not come here, because delivering to the UK is a shit job because you don’t get paid for sitting at customs borders.

So what are you doing to remedy this wages injustice?

 

[Raheem]

The poor French will be largely unaffected. It's those on higher incomes we need to feel sorry for.

 

[Saul Goodman]

Apparently they have the same problem in France, where their sandwiches have become, somewhat inexplicably, quite popular - How will the poor French cope?

I guess they'll have to go back to their crispy, crunchy, lovely fresh breads and cheeses. Life will be so hard without soggy sandwiches from a packet.

 

[Raheem]

Marks and Spencers apparently has 21 small branches in France, only two of which are outside Paris.

 

[andysays]

I don't think it really matters why they left. They are said to have left because of Brexit, and I believe they mostly left prior to the pandemic becoming a factor.

I think in some respects it does matter why they left.

If the haulage industry (or any other industry) in Britain is significantly dependent on workers from elsewhere (and appears from the figures you mentioned above that between 6 and 9% of lorry drivers in the UK were from elsewhere in the EU), that industry is always going to be vulnerable to many of those workers deciding to return to their home countries.

Part of that will just be turnover of individual workers deciding they'd like to return home, some may be caused by global events like Covid. A significant though probably unknowable amount of that turnover would have happened without Brexit.

 

[Pickman's model]

Marks and Spencers apparently has 21 small branches in France, only two of which are outside Paris.

There is an m&s in valletta

 

[Raheem]

There is an m&s in valletta

You're thinking of Missouri.

 

[Pickman's model]

You're thinking of Missouri.

 

[glitch hiker]

Read the article from the FT quoted upthread by The39thStep which talks about unknown numbers of workers who have been granted settled status subsequently choosing to return to their home countries.

It's talking specifically about the meat processing industry, but there's no reason to suppose it hasn't happened in other industries too.

Ok so the article you refer to is here Subscribe to read | Financial Times
I coudln't read that post upthread because it's a giant wall of text and my eyesisght struggles so I needed to find the original.

The article says it doesn't know how many have returned home for non-Brexit (ie covid) reasons. It is a sector entirely shaped by migrant labour and the fact that it was easily provided while we were in the EU.

So I'm not seeing how Brexit isn't causal.

EDIT: the link has been paywalled. That's bullshit, when I found it was accessible. Never mind

 

[Dystopiary]

andysays

Thank you very much. Will read when I can, hopefully this evening.

 

[Raheem]

I think in some respects it does matter why they left.

If the haulage industry (or any other industry) in Britain is significantly dependent on workers from elsewhere (and appears from the figures you mentioned above that between 6 and 9% of lorry drivers in the UK were from elsewhere in the EU), that industry is always going to be vulnerable to many of those workers deciding to return to their home countries.

Part of that will just be turnover of individual workers deciding they'd like to return home, some may be caused by global events like Covid. A significant though probably unknowable amount of that turnover would have happened without Brexit.

I think the idea is that there was an exodus of hgv drivers focussed on the last quarter of 2020, the timing of which suggests a link to Brexit rather than Covid. There's no survey of the drivers, and of course some might have been planning to leave for any number of reasons. But I think it's a plausible and likely narrative, and not one that it's really worth spending time being sceptical about, because it seems really clear that it is not the cause of current problems in the sector (even though it might have made things slightly less manageable).

 

[bimble]

So what are you doing to remedy this wages injustice?

Emigrating seems the best thing I can do to help, that way nobody has to sit at customs for hours to bring me my cheese.

 

[andysays]

I think the idea is that there was an exodus of hgv drivers focussed on the last quarter of 2020, the timing of which suggests a link to Brexit rather than Covid. There's no survey of the drivers, and of course some might have been planning to leave for any number of reasons. But I think it's a plausible and likely narrative, and not one that it's really worth spending time being sceptical about, because it seems really clear that it is not the cause of current problems in the sector (even though it might have made things slightly less manageable).

OK, fair enough.