butchersapron
Bring back hanging
I was trying to come up with something that combined the think tank bubble with a snow globe effect - didn't quite get it right!
Yes or No -AV referendum May 2011
- Thread starter articul8
- Start date
I was trying to come up with something that combined the think tank bubble with a snow globe effect - didn't quite get it right!
Steel Icarus
we move
What seems obvious to me - not nearly as well-educated in politics as I would like, but learning fast & fucking angry - is that sitting it out & waiting for the LDs to be wiped out in 4 years' time is too late. Cos the cuts will have continued far past what even the Tories deem "necessary", and into the realm of fucking public services forever. We'll never prize any of it back from the private "providers" of health care, education, transport, workfare schemes, etc etc etc. A "no" vote at least is a stick in the spokes. Something. Cos we haven't got 4 years.
A No vote is no guarantee of getting rid of the LibDems. It will be a near guarantee for more (and more solid) Tory government for the future.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
So is a yes vote, but with the added bonus of the Nick Clegg getting to decide who is Prime Minister for us.
moochedit
I'm not feeding seagulls
Apparently this booklet below is getting mailed to every address in the country to explain the systems.
Not received mine yet, but it'll be interesting to watch the polls to see what effect it has on the "don't knows".
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/file/0005/109877/Eng-web.pdf
Not received mine yet, but it'll be interesting to watch the polls to see what effect it has on the "don't knows".
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/file/0005/109877/Eng-web.pdf
articul8
Dishonest sociopath
It's not me making pie-in-the-sky assumptions - its BA. All I have said is that a NO would be a boost to Cameron and to what Tories perceive as their electoral interests (which is why they are campaigning for it!!) Butchers is the one with the highly speculative stuff about "potential to kybosh the cuts" which seems hopelessly pie-in-the-sky to me.
So any realistic assesment has to balance what you know a Yes vote will do (deny the Tories a boost) against some highly speculative and unrealistic fantasy scenario which sees a weakened and demoralised LDs somehow weakening the tempo of the cuts.
Do you deny that the Libdems play a core role in the Coalition?
Do you deny that a NO vote could bring underlying tensions within the Libdems to the surface?
articul8
Dishonest sociopath
But it's not a stick in the spokes - it means getting rid of the one progressive aspect of the coalition agreement and giving the Tories a major boost. The Tories will be delighted with a yes vote. Would they take that position if they felt it would endanger their precious cuts? Would they??!!
articul8
Dishonest sociopath
They are useful for the Tories at the moment. But they are lashed to the coalition mast now and will drown or float along with it.
Tensions could arise irrespective of the referendum outcome. A Yes vote might see those unhappy with the coalition saying "we've got what we came for now let's back out before we're wiped out" But none of these tensions are likely to prevail and bring down the coalition early.
So where are we? I'm saying we need to build maximum extra-parliamentary pressure on the government in the short term, deny the Tories the boost they are seeking and maximise the anti-Tory vote at the next GE.
In what sense do the Lib Dems offer opposition to the Tories? Is it none at all?
Steel Icarus
we move
Is that the coalition agreement Clegg didn't want but was forced to have because he wasn't really holding that may cards? I don't think the Tories give a shit how the vote goes. It was something to offer the LDs to make a coalition attractive but isn't really worth much. Keeping the Weetabix but giving Clegg & his band the free holographic Glee sticker. They don't think anything can stop their cuts - I doubt they take anything that could seriously.
articul8
Dishonest sociopath
No you misundestand me. I was referring to opposition in terms of competing for votes at the ballot box. Aside from seats the LDs hold from the Tories, there are bucketloads of Tory seats where the LDs are the only real challengers. If LDs get wiped out these become Tory walkover seats. This is a problem because it frees them to concentrate all their campaign resources (cash, activists, advertising etc.) on Lab/Con marginals.
articul8
Dishonest sociopath
In that case why are they seconding central office staff to work on No2AV, why is not a single Tory MP backing a Yes (one says he's thinking about it - out of 300+), why are senior tory funders like Sir Rodney Leach stumping up cash for it....etc.
In fact Baroness Warsi their party chairman said it was the main priority "above all" in May.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Show me the figures.
Yes, if the Lib Dems get wiped out, all their voters will simply stay at home during elections.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Because they don't give a shit. They know their vote does though. Do you see the difference?
Who were those 12 prominent business leaders wrote the letter in support of AV btw? What have any of them donated to your campaign?
articul8
Dishonest sociopath
meaning the Tories can take those seats for granted and direct everything at attacking Labour in marginal seats. Great!
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
And are these 12 business leaders amongst them?
They imagine the tory vote is anti - it overwhelmingly is. I should have restricted it to members and active supporters.
You fucking idiot
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
You now what's going on right now right? Not in 4 years time?
articul8
Dishonest sociopath
What - you don't mind if there's a Tory majority? You fucking idiot
articul8
Dishonest sociopath
yes, which is why I think there needs to be massive extra-parliamentary pressure and action against the cuts. But pissing off Clegg (and thereby boosting not only Cameron's short-term ratings but longer term Tory interests) all to no effect is seriously stupid. Parliamentary progress IS on hold for 4 years - that's why the pressure has to come from outside.
No, you fucking idiot for thinking that everyone who votes Lib Dem in LD-Con marginals is suddenly going to stop voting. For the love of fucking Christ.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Hidden behind this idiocy is the idea of a lab/lib-dem coalition. It's writ into the logic of the argument. Otherwise you're arguing that AV will return majority govts. Are you? That needs an answer.
There's a whole heap of other questions you mange to keep missing above as well.
articul8
Dishonest sociopath
Thatcher didn't need a coalition partner. Sometimes coalitions can be more left wing - as in some respects was the Labour/LD coalition in Scotland when compared to New Labour policy from London.
There's nothing inherently good/evil about majority government or coalition. it's all about the content.
articul8
Dishonest sociopath
AV can return majority governments - in fact it is no less likely than under FPTP. And I'm not arguing that a Labour/LD coalition is automatically desirable. Far from it, I can see a lot of circumstances when it would be anything but. But nor is it axiomatically less preferable than a Labour majority - and it's likely to be a hell of sight better than a Tory one.
articul8
Dishonest sociopath
No - some will stay at home, so will vote Labour, some will vote Green, some will vote for the Natural Law party - none of which will be any fucking good in terms of keeping out the Tory in a previously LD/Con marginal. Those seats will be safe Tory.
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