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Yes or No -AV referendum May 2011

articul8 said:
There is more choice for people who find that formerly safe seat has become more marginal. That all safe seats don't fall into this category doesn't mean their aren't real gains for who do.

And *all* voters have the opportunity to vote for their genuine first preference, rather than the tactically necessary option eg. in LD/Con seats Labour/Green supporters can vote meaningfully for their own party without surrending their ability to influence the outcome in keeping the Tory out. That is a "choice" that doesn't exist at present.
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Now they have a three way choice! Pluralism in action.
 
littlebabyjesus said:
The current system creates a strong 'centrist bias' by concentrating the minds of all main parties on the thoughts of a tiny number of swing voters in marginal constituencies. Would AV be worse, or better? The answer doesn't seem obvious to me.
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Indeed and AV doesn't solve the problem of bias toward swing voters in marginal seats. With AV there is an added bias that 2nd preference vote will often go to the more centrist parties (or parties perceived to be centrist). That is Lab and Con 2nd prefs will be more likely to go to the Lib Dems just because they are seen to be in the middle of them.
 
Combustible said:
Indeed and AV doesn't solve the problem of bias toward swing voters in marginal seats. With AV there is an added bias that 2nd preference vote will often go to the more centrist parties (or parties perceived to be centrist). That is Lab and Con 2nd prefs will be more likely to go to the Lib Dems just because they are seen to be in the middle of them.
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This old canard has been shot down more than once. In Lab/Con marginals Labour could reasonably profit from winning 2nd preferences from voters not only from the LIb Dems, but also from Greens and anti-cuts parties. There would be forces to exert some pressure from the left, where currently there are none.

And by definition if MPs to have reach out to a broader spectrum of the electorate (which would be the case in the two thirds of constituencies where the MP hasn't been elected by over 50%) then they have to appeal to more people. More marginals, and more people you need to appeal to. Not the end of marginals/swing voters but considerably widening the circle.
 
nino_savatte said:
What makes you think that it will "eliminate" safe seats?

You say "No-one has so far sustained an argument to the effect that FPTP is a better system than AV" but neither you nor Take Back Parliament has put forward a cast iron argument that demonstrates that AV is a superior system to the current one.
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Because such an argument doesn't exist. It can't exist.

It's an argument that can only be made after the fact of it proving (or not) to be superior. Everything articul8 has said on this thread is based on (quite possibly well-informed) speculation. All the polls in the world can only apprise you of possibilities. Every poll is merely a snapshot of opinion at a certain time. He doesn't know how effective AV might be at achieving anything. He's just got his fingers and toes crossed, hoping that he's right.
 
articul8 said:
The UK elected a Tory majority government twice after the recession of the early eighties and the miners strike, including after the poll tax. Yes, there is mass opposition to the cuts. But don't underestimate the strength of the Tory core vote and the tabloid press.

I'm not saying that you have to be a Tory to vote No. I'm saying that it doesn't make sense for the Tories to uninamously support and help finance something that they didn't believe would work in their party's interest.
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Your first paragraph elides any mention of why they won those elections, I notice.
 
butchersapron said:
In these seats there can be a disaggregation then a vote for the lib-dems. Fantastic.
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How is it *less* desirable than Green/Labour/left voters appearing as out-and-out Lib Dems just because they want to stop the Tories. OK, at the next election these will be fewer in number, because of the understandable contempt for the coalition. But it will be more than you currently expect, as we'll have had a good 18 months of LD repositioning,
 
articul8 said:
This old canard has been shot down more than once. In Lab/Con marginals Labour could reasonably profit from winning 2nd preferences from voters not only from the LIb Dems, but also from Greens and anti-cuts parties. There would be forces to exert some pressure from the left, where currently there are none.

And by definition if MPs to have reach out to a broader spectrum of the electorate (which would be the case in the two thirds of constituencies where the MP hasn't been elected by over 50%) then they have to appeal to more people. More marginals, and more people you need to appeal to. Not the end of marginals/swing voters but considerably widening the circle.
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Not by you and not on this thread it hasn't. It's not a canard and it's actually been reinforced by real life events. Notwithstanding your madness that the lib-dems are on the left and anti-tory, whilst being in coalition with them. They really hate them blood tories grrrr etc
 
articul8 said:
Read my post? I specifically acknoweldge that it "won't" eliminate safe seats. But that doesn't mean it isn't a step forward from FPTP.
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What you actually said was:
"That AV won't eliminate every safe seat is not sufficient ground for rejecting altogether a system that would make *more* seats *more* marginal." (my emphasis)

Therefore your post implies that it will eliminate some safe seats, although you fail to quantify how it will make more seats more marginal (except if 2nd preferences are used as you predict rather than as foils), or what proportion (by even a vague degree) it'll make "more marginal".
You're talking speculative pie-in-the-sky. Best-case scenarios for AV-supporters.
 
butchersapron said:
Not by you and not on this thread it hasn't. It's not a canard and it's actually been reinforced by real life events. Notwithstanding your madness that the lib-dems are on the left and anti-tory, whilst being in coalition with them. They really hate them blood tories grrrr etc
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Real life events suggest that under FPTP Green, single-issue or left/anti-cuts platforms will help the Tories by splitting the opposition vote - so they will either be squeezed or be wasted. Under AV people are free to vote for the position they like best and then switch to cast an effective vote.

Labour will benefit by attracting these people. At the moment they don't count.
 
articul8 said:
How is it *less* desirable than Green/Labour/left voters appearing as out-and-out Lib Dems just because they want to stop the Tories. OK, at the next election these will be fewer in number, because of the understandable contempt for the coalition. But it will be more than you currently expect, as we'll have had a good 18 months of LD repositioning,
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Your argument is that there'll be more labour voters, the inescapable fact etc. It's also that a forever lab-lib-dem coalition is what's going to happen and is what's desirable. It's the flip side of auto-labourism.

Desirable? Your term. Why? I know what i want and why. I've outlined it a number of times. I've backed it up with reference to actual real life politics.
 
A labour/lib dem coalition is *preferable* to a Tory majority. Isn't it? It isn't *desirable* in itself, but dragging the ideological centre of gravity to the left is worthwhile.
 
articul8 said:
Real life events suggest that under FPTP Green, single-issue or left/anti-cuts platforms will help the Tories by splitting the opposition vote - so they will either be squeezed or be wasted. Under AV people are free to vote for the position they like best and then switch to cast an effective vote.

Labour will benefit by attracting these people. At the moment they don't count.
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When did this vote turn into a helping labour issue? As a party menber it might be for you - it's not for me.

FPTP helped labour in 97, 2002 and 2005 if you want to put it in instrumental terms - so why get rid of it?
 
articul8 said:
A labour/lib dem coalition is *preferable* to a Tory majority. Isn't it? It isn't *desirable* in itself, but dragging the ideological centre of gravity to the left is worthwhile.
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You're arguing for a lab-lib-dem coalition stamping on our faces for ever though. That's your selling point.
 
articul8 said:
A labour/lib dem coalition is *preferable* to a Tory majority. Isn't it? It isn't *desirable* in itself, but dragging the ideological centre of gravity to the left is worthwhile.
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How did the ideological centre of gravity get dragged to the left under labour? I must have imagined tony blair etc then?

And what is so great about labour in coalition with the lib dems? It's the lib dems driving this ideological crap you might as well have a coalition between your party and the tories !
 
frogwoman said:
How did the ideological centre of gravity get dragged to the left under labour? I must have imagined tony blair etc then?
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It didn't. But that was because of the armlock of swing voters in key middle England marginals. Anything that reduces the squeeze of left votes (allowing the votes of the big parties to disaggregate :p) and increases the number of target seats and the volume of voters who preferences are needed weakens this effect. Ultimately, Labour was able to rely on "there's nowhere else" for its core vote to go. My contention is that AV would help smaller parties to establish their presence over time, if not immediately in terms of the representation they are due.
 
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